old SD uses.

The E wrote:Skimper, why don't you try to do the fucking math on these proposals of yours once?

I'm not Skimper, but I also didn't major in math or science. Still, I used a calculator and divided the 18000 max salvo density of Filareta's 11th Fleet by the 427 ships and figured out they could only control 42 missiles each in any given salvo. I figure that alone is a major reason to just leave them in the parking lot.

Plus, who knows how slow their rate of fire is, if a BC launches every 36 seconds?

YMMV

Robert Thompson

Jonathan_S wrote:Presumably the microfusion reactor (and fuel) is actually bigger than 1.5 missile capacitor stacks.

After all an ERM seems to have 50% more runtime so it should need 50% more power; which (baring any tech breakthroughs) requires 50% more capacitors. And yet, as you said, they're still capacitor powered.


But they are definitely bigger that SDMs. As an aside I guess it's not impossible that a CA weight ERM (the Mark 14) could be small enough to easily be modified to work in an unmodified capital ship's magazines, loading hardware, and launchers; but we've seen no direct evidence that it can be. And it would certainly be a reduction in warhead power compared to SDM capital ship missiles. But I can't see anyone with real MDM tech bothering; better to focus on ships that will be useful in the longer term.

I've been a proponent of an HERM for awhile, but when you look at the timeline, it just does not make sense for Manticore to develop it.

The ERM is first seen in 1917 on the Sag-B CA. Obviouslyit was under development for several years, but the at this time the MK 41 MDM already exists and is installed in launchers in the Minotaur, Hydra and Medusa classes. In the interwar period, plans and mande and work is started to upgrade the Gryphon (and possibly Sphinnx) SDs to fire the Mk 41s (or possibly the later, but smaller mk 23 fusion missiles.) Janacheck, with all the time in the world and money being siphoned off to fund his political master's projects, doesn't rush the upgrades.

In short, between the wars, there is no need for the HERM. The SDs are being upgraded to MDMs or destroyed.

September 1919 - Thunderbolt. Manticore needs to return all it's SDs from the Mothballs. A giant build wave to replace them with podlayers on an almost 1 for 1 basis is started

Christmas 1921 - all the python build is to be complete - the RMN should be able to field ~300 SD(p)s, and builds from allies will add > another 300 SD(p)s to the wall of battle, if not for the loses at BoMa.

In short, Manticore has less than 2 year to identify the overwhelming need for a HERM, design it produce it and build it in worthwile # - all while knowing it is still a 2nd rate weapon and will be useless in less than 24 months.

Plenty of reasons NOT to build the HERM during the 2nd war.

Theemile wrote:I've been a proponent of an HERM for awhile, but when you look at the timeline, it just does not make sense for Manticore to develop it.

The ERM is first seen in 1917 on the Sag-B CA. Obviouslyit was under development for several years, but the at this time the MK 41 MDM already exists and is installed in launchers in the Minotaur, Hydra and Medusa classes. In the interwar period, plans and mande and work is started to upgrade the Gryphon (and possibly Sphinnx) SDs to fire the Mk 41s (or possibly the later, but smaller mk 23 fusion missiles.) Janacheck, with all the time in the world and money being siphoned off to fund his political master's projects, doesn't rush the upgrades.

In short, between the wars, there is no need for the HERM. The SDs are being upgraded to MDMs or destroyed.

September 1919 - Thunderbolt. Manticore needs to return all it's SDs from the Mothballs. A giant build wave to replace them with podlayers on an almost 1 for 1 basis is started

Christmas 1921 - all the python build is to be complete - the RMN should be able to field ~300 SD(p)s, and builds from allies will add > another 300 SD(p)s to the wall of battle, if not for the loses at BoMa.

In short, Manticore has less than 2 year to identify the overwhelming need for a HERM, design it produce it and build it in worthwile # - all while knowing it is still a 2nd rate weapon and will be useless in less than 24 months.

Plenty of reasons NOT to build the HERM during the 2nd war.

That basically been my analysis. If you could have built a HERM with a capital missile warhead that could be carried by unmodified tube SDs, and you knew how long those tube SDs would be forced to be in service, then building one makes some sense.

But since you had to refit them anyway due to the larger dimensions of the missile, requiring the enlargement of armored opening to permit larger feed tubes and launchers, it was probably worth the incremental additional costs to just go straight to Mk 41 capacitor powered MDMs. (Going to the smaller Mk 23 fusion powered probably takes more work because you have to build extra armored cofferdams and blowout panels around each tube so a fusion containment failure doesn't chain reaction across an entire broadside. That extra work at near the hull probable more the offsets the reduced amount of armor you'd have along the way for the feed tubes; which should be intermediate in size between the existing SDM ones and the Mk 41 sized ones)


And even then, the differences in combat power, survivability, and personnel costs means you're better off just retiring your tube wallers in favor of new-built SD(P)s. The refits just don't seem worth the cost and yard-time. (Janacek's stupidity was in suspending SD(P) construction; not in retiring old SDs)

Jonathan_S wrote:Presumably the microfusion reactor (and fuel) is actually bigger than 1.5 missile capacitor stacks.

After all an ERM seems to have 50% more runtime so it should need 50% more power; which (baring any tech breakthroughs) requires 50% more capacitors. And yet, as you said, they're still capacitor powered.

You are forgetting about the energy required to initiate the wedge in the first pace, which is known to be large compared to sustaining the wedge. So an ERM despite the 50% more runtime requires less than 50% more power as it still only starts its wedge up once, just how much less is uncertain but could potentially be a lot depending on just how big the difference between wedge startup and running is.

Grashtel wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Presumably the microfusion reactor (and fuel) is actually bigger than 1.5 missile capacitor stacks.

After all an ERM seems to have 50% more runtime so it should need 50% more power; which (baring any tech breakthroughs) requires 50% more capacitors. And yet, as you said, they're still capacitor powered.

You are forgetting about the energy required to initiate the wedge in the first pace, which is known to be large compared to sustaining the wedge. So an ERM despite the 50% more runtime requires less than 50% more power as it still only starts its wedge up once, just how much less is uncertain but could potentially be a lot depending on just how big the difference between wedge startup and running is.

And don't forget about the power the warhead/ECM/Penaids need - you only use the warhead package once independant of the missile range, so this is another power drain which isn't additive with extended range.

Jonathan_S wrote:

Theemile wrote:I've been a proponent of an HERM for awhile, but when you look at the timeline, it just does not make sense for Manticore to develop it.

The ERM is first seen in 1917 on the Sag-B CA. Obviouslyit was under development for several years, but the at this time the MK 41 MDM already exists and is installed in launchers in the Minotaur, Hydra and Medusa classes. In the interwar period, plans and mande and work is started to upgrade the Gryphon (and possibly Sphinx) SDs to fire the Mk 41s (or possibly the later, but smaller mk 23 fusion missiles.) Janacheck, with all the time in the world and money being siphoned off to fund his political master's projects, doesn't rush the upgrades.

In short, between the wars, there is no need for the HERM. The SDs are being upgraded to MDMs or destroyed.

September 1919 - Thunderbolt. Manticore needs to return all it's SDs from the Mothballs. A giant build wave to replace them with podlayers on an almost 1 for 1 basis is started

Christmas 1921 - all the python build is to be complete - the RMN should be able to field ~300 SD(p)s, and builds from allies will add > another 300 SD(p)s to the wall of battle, if not for the loses at BoMa.

In short, Manticore has less than 2 year to identify the overwhelming need for a HERM, design it produce it and build it in worthwile # - all while knowing it is still a 2nd rate weapon and will be useless in less than 24 months.

Plenty of reasons NOT to build the HERM during the 2nd war.

That basically been my analysis. If you could have built a HERM with a capital missile warhead that could be carried by unmodified tube SDs, and you knew how long those tube SDs would be forced to be in service, then building one makes some sense.

But since you had to refit them anyway due to the larger dimensions of the missile, requiring the enlargement of armored opening to permit larger feed tubes and launchers, it was probably worth the incremental additional costs to just go straight to Mk 41 capacitor powered MDMs. (Going to the smaller Mk 23 fusion powered probably takes more work because you have to build extra armored cofferdams and blowout panels around each tube so a fusion containment failure doesn't chain reaction across an entire broadside. That extra work at near the hull probable more the offsets the reduced amount of armor you'd have along the way for the feed tubes; which should be intermediate in size between the existing SDM ones and the Mk 41 sized ones)


And even then, the differences in combat power, survivability, and personnel costs means you're better off just retiring your tube wallers in favor of new-built SD(P)s. The refits just don't seem worth the cost and yard-time. (Janacek's stupidity was in suspending SD(P) construction; not in retiring old SDs)

However, the decision not to throw away the Sphinx and Gryphon classes makes sense - from a political stand point. SDs are typically seen as a 100 year capitol investment. The oldest Sphinx is <25 year old at the end of the first war, so still has lots of life left on it. The populace has made an investment and wants to get the most from it. The older ships have already been sold off at fire sale prices, depleting the market for any of these expensive ships. The new builds are demonstratably 3-4x more powerful and cheaper to run long term to boot.

Realworld-

In my current job, I have hardware that is 15 years old doing audio and video processing, amplification and filtering. The equpment usually runs fine until a capacitor dries out or a powersupply blows - then I'm off working with my maintenance prrovider to find replacement parts.

In the Meantime, I'm trying to replace the lot - Technology has changed multifold in 15 years and what a rack of hardware did then can be replaced with 1 or 2 boxes now - and do the job better.

But everytime something breaks we look at the replacement solution, I get the replacement specs drawn up, Write the justification as critically as possible, and then the Money question scares everyone off. Politically, we have a working solution in place and a way to maintain it, so there is no need to spend the outrageous sums to replace and improve.

In the Honorverse, without a shooting war and no peer competitor, the un-upgraded Gryphons were more than a match for any known threat. The perfect backup for the ultra-high tech Medusas, which no one could possibly defeat.

So why waste money?

Theemile wrote:However, the decision not to throw away the Sphinx and Gryphon classes makes sense - from a political stand point. SDs are typically seen as a 100 year capitol investment. The oldest Sphinx is <25 year old at the end of the first war, so still has lots of life left on it. The populace has made an investment and wants to get the most from it. The older ships have already been sold off at fire sale prices, depleting the market for any of these expensive ships. The new builds are demonstratably 3-4x more powerful and cheaper to run long term to boot.

Which has "sunk cost fallacy" written all over it. Yes, these ships were expensive, yes, in the right situation, these ships are still supremely powerful, but no, that does not actually make them worth keeping around.

(Also, it's not like the money that was spent on these ships was used to build them; all of the investment these ships represent has already filtered back into the manticoran economy, and the only things that were actually expended during construction are raw materials, of which there is no shortage)

The E wrote:

Theemile wrote:However, the decision not to throw away the Sphinx and Gryphon classes makes sense - from a political stand point. SDs are typically seen as a 100 year capitol investment. The oldest Sphinx is <25 year old at the end of the first war, so still has lots of life left on it. The populace has made an investment and wants to get the most from it. The older ships have already been sold off at fire sale prices, depleting the market for any of these expensive ships. The new builds are demonstratably 3-4x more powerful and cheaper to run long term to boot.

Which has "sunk cost fallacy" written all over it. Yes, these ships were expensive, yes, in the right situation, these ships are still supremely powerful, but no, that does not actually make them worth keeping around.

(Also, it's not like the money that was spent on these ships was used to build them; all of the investment these ships represent has already filtered back into the manticoran economy, and the only things that were actually expended during construction are raw materials, of which there is no shortage)

Precisely. Unfortunately said thinking is alive and kicking in the real world. And, inevitably, the person who exposes that fallacy the most will be the first to complain when the perfectly serviceable SD fails in the moment of battle when it is needed most, ignoring that it was they who insisted on the short cut to begin with.

Hmmm... WAR - Nature's way of clearing the obsolete hardware.