Long term consequences of the League's collapse

Please bear in mind that the minimum number of deployed vessels is 1/3 of the number assigned to that mission. It could be a lot higher if the transit time is significant. So you are not talking hundreds, you are talking well over a thousand. Plus the logistics needed to maintain this sort of infrastructure.

Not to mention that this provides nice bite sized fixed targets that will normally not have any heavy hyper capable ships.

lyonheart wrote:FYI, the volume of a sphere is 4/3 X pi X r^3 [4/3piXr cubed], the surface area being 4 X pi X r^2 [4piXr squared].

Okay, at this point English would be very much appreciated. Hell, even Arabic would do...I never did get much beyond 2+2=5.

Guys, you have got to keep in mind that the GA has absolutely NO intention of setting itself up as a replacement for the League - not even on an informal basis.

Yes, Manticore is willing to throw the League out of those OFS Protectorates that are relatively close to its own borders and to enter into defensive pacts with the newly-liberated star nations, as Michelle did in Meyers.

And yes, I cannot see the GA hesitating to engage the League even further afield, but there has never been any indication that Manticore or the GA is planning to take over the League's peacekeeping roles everywhere in former League space.

Besides, let's speculate that the GA or Manticore indeed decides to establish a military presence throughout former OFS Protectorate space. The League, OFS, the Gendarmerie AND Frontier Fleet have withdrawn and left their former fiefdoms to their own devices. That includes all OFS and FF personnel, technical and logistical staff included. Due to OFS practices, very few locals have the know-how to serve in technical or logistical support functions for ANYONE who might move in to replace OFS/FF. That means that, should it be Manticore or the GA who moves in, there is virtually no local support structure, and therefore any task force such as you were talking about will have to be self-supportive. In most cases, even if such task forces are kept only in a few hundred nodal locations, they'll be completely isolated from any back-up from back in the Haven Sector as well, for very long periods of time. The logistical and manpower requirements will be astronomical. Could the GA really meet those requirements?

Also, we need to consider a few other points. In many instances, the withdrawal of OFS/FF will result in civil wars, civil unrest and, in almost all former Protectorate systems, severe economic disruption as well. Manticore's and the GA's socio-political ethos will not allow them to simply move in with a naval task force without doing their damnedest best to alleviate the kind of turmoil and economic suffering that will result from an OFS/FF withdrawal. Given the political and economic realities facing Manticore (rebuilding her industrial capacity after the Yawata Strike, and uplifting the economies of her Silesian Protectorate and the Talbott Quadrant) and Haven (scores of member systems still in the economic doldrums), do you really think that Manticore by herself or the GA as a whole can afford to get THAT involved in the more distant former OFS Protectorates?

Their citizens will rightly object to such a deep involvement that will divert desperately needed resources from the economic recovery efforts back in Haven and Manticore. Yet if the GA or Manticore do set up naval task forces as you suggest, they won't be able not to do their best to help.

Moreover, given the civil unrest or even conflict we can expect to break out on many, if not most, of the newly freed worlds, we know that any Manticoran or GA naval detachment in those systems will have to get involved in on-planet peacekeeping efforts as well, which will require yet another immense manpower investment - which none of the GA's members will be able to make.

Manticore and GA partners seem to have a good handle on the fact that the Alignment wants the Leage to shatter. The GA really does not have much choice but to pursue Honor's outline of pushing to make the League fall even if it does follow the Alignment plan--of which the true motivation is somewhat murky--- if the GA members are going to survive.

Mostly Honor was looking to push the fracture faults with political and economic pressure. What the Alignment has done is force the military issue to destroy any effective military leadership and capasity within the League at the same time they have been trying to destroy Haven and Manticore.

Remember, the destruction of the original Republic of Haven was a manipulated thing very much the way the SL is being driven to destruction. The PRH would have actually been a fairly brittle construct as it was dependent on the ongoing conquest of new sources of funding by taking over other systems. It would have shattered once faced with the onslaught (and it would have come) of the SL Buracracy growing through the OFS into the Haven sphear of influence and conquest. Manticore both stopped PRH and forced it- purely by being able to survive and out develop the tech margins- the PRH which also pushed 1st PRH and now the recreated Republic of Haven into the military powerhouse it is.

Between the Mandarins destroying the SLN by throwing it at Manticore and now the GA, the SL is going to break. Actually much quicker than Honor would have thought. The GA can ALMOST wait behind its boarders as defined by wormhole access and actual depth of distance and and only defend against what the present SL can throw in its direction. I say almost because the GA is going to have to activly move to blunt the SL's moves and entice the systmens -that can- in the Shell and Verge to break from the SL or at least from OFS and Transstellar control.

That various Transstellar interests could become versions of the various East India Companies (the Dutch and the English) is realistic. Corporate multi-stellar systems are a form of government. They will be competing with lots of others. They will have some nasty infighting (or cutting of deals) with OFS governors or commissioners who find that they "have to" go independent from OFS in order to bring oder to their areas of responsibility- and of course be forced to grab a bit extra because they can- to create their little kingdoms on the fringe of the collapsing League.

This will be interesting to watch in the books. Don't really want to experience it in the real world.

For better or worse, Manticore and the GA (and the Aldermani and Erwhon etc) are going to have to concentrate of keeping the wolves out of their own space and encouraging local systems to protect themselvers.

One of the major problems- designed by the Alignment for specificaly this reason- is that the RF is going to form "out of necessity" from the fragments of the SL over time and be the conduit for the Alignment to implement it's own ideas of what humanity should be and who is going to control what. Initially there will be very little that would lead the GA to identify what will be come the dozen core systems of future RF as a front for the Alignment. They -those individual systems and their first layers of allied systems- can even engage in inter group warfare at different times and then "settle" their differences and problems to form more stable and powerfull groups before they get to the envisioned RF. We don't really know how big this entity to-be-formed is going to or supposed to get before it emerges as the RF.

Brigade XO wrote:For better or worse, Manticore and the GA (and the Aldermani and Erwhon etc) are going to have to concentrate of keeping the wolves out of their own space and encouraging local systems to protect themselvers.

One of the major problems- designed by the Alignment for specificaly this reason- is that the RF is going to form "out of necessity" from the fragments of the SL over time and be the conduit for the Alignment to implement it's own ideas of what humanity should be and who is going to control what. Initially there will be very little that would lead the GA to identify what will be come the dozen core systems of future RF as a front for the Alignment. They -those individual systems and their first layers of allied systems- can even engage in inter group warfare at different times and then "settle" their differences and problems to form more stable and powerfull groups before they get to the envisioned RF. We don't really know how big this entity to-be-formed is going to or supposed to get before it emerges as the RF.

I agree. The GA's leaders are first and foremost responsible for the survival, security and prosperity of their own star nations. It would be criminal for them to divert any resources - manpower, ships, supplies - that would weaken their defences, in light of the storm they know is about to sweep through human space.

Yes, going into the conflict with the League - which Manticore did NOT start, btw - Elizabeth and her advisers knew that any break-up of the League would result in unthinkable human suffering and fatalities. But once again, Manticore did not start the fight, yet Elizabeth is empress and it is her duty to protect her people. That includes safeguarding them against any threat of becoming OFS peons, with all the human suffering THAT would entail.

Having said that, I cannot see the GA's leaders refusing from helping WHERE THEY CAN. The GA's fleet strength, manpower and resources will not be able to intervene everywhere it might want to, not without weakening its members' own defences, which means that far too many star nations will be left to survive the chaos of a post-Solarian Fall era as best they can with their own resources.

However, where the GA can spare the needed ships, crews, marine and army detachments, and supplies, I think it will do so - but necessity will limit any GA intervention to areas that are not to distant from either its members' own borders or from the wormhole network's various termini, just in case any of those detached intervention forces will need to be recalled for some unexpected reason.

THe alliance will in the future, be building up its fleet, and its industry and infrastructure in greater depth and ability. THey will keep the wormhole network secure, and patrol the regions close to it.

To ensure no league ships, or ships from core or shell worlds make the journey, the logistical system will need to be knock out.

how long can their ships be sustained with out the logistical back up?

if they go pirate or raider, an actuall navy could do real damage to them.

If the alliance can take the felix junction, and terminii systems, that would be a crippling blow to the mesan alignement, they would just be another faction in the core. sure they would be a threat, but they only have limited control on those planets.

SYED wrote: If the alliance can take the felix junction, and terminii systems, that would be a crippling blow to the mesan alignement, they would just be another faction in the core. sure they would be a threat, but they only have limited control on those planets.

Not really. It's like bolthole. They hide out on the far end and kill anyone who sticks their head in. They know how to get there in hyper and how to get to their enemies, while their enemies can't get to them.

SYED wrote:THe alliance will in the future, be building up its fleet, and its industry and infrastructure in greater depth and ability. THey will keep the wormhole network secure, and patrol the regions close to it.

To ensure no league ships, or ships from core or shell worlds make the journey, the logistical system will need to be knock out.

how long can their ships be sustained with out the logistical back up?

if they go pirate or raider, an actuall navy could do real damage to them.

If the alliance can take the felix junction, and terminii systems, that would be a crippling blow to the mesan alignement, they would just be another faction in the core. sure they would be a threat, but they only have limited control on those planets.

Syed, despite Haven's size and the ever-growing size of the Star Empire, they and the rest of the GA's members still comprise only a minor part of human space territory-wise, and a truly miniscule part population-wise. I would be surprised if the entire GA has a population in excess of 500 billion, and that is being generous. Compare that to how many trillions of people in the League and its Protectorates alone, never mind the untold numbers of people living in the Verge.

I agree that the GA can keep control of the entire wormhole network, or if not, then at least most of it, and that it will do so for strategic reasons (denying passage to any ship registered to a hostile star nation, and thereby not only keeping the advantage wrt the comm delay and crippling their enemies' economies, but also to encourage potentially-hostile star nations to either remain neutral or become allied to the GA), without having to weaken its members' home defences too much.

In fact, I think it's probable that the GA will be able to designate special task forces for missions against targets deep within hostile territory, over and above home defence and control of the wormhole network. How much so, I cannot tell you, but it should be possible.

But beyond those three primary mandates? Not a snowball's chance in hell that the GA could possibly take over as a peacekeeping force everywhere the Solarian League is pushed out of or withdraw from.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Hutch,

I have no quarrels with your listed procedures, they are exactly what I had in mind, even if I didn't delineate them, but then I'm so wordy as it is.

FYI, the volume of a sphere is 4/3 X pi X r^3 [4/3piXr cubed], the surface area being 4 X pi X r^2 [4piXr squared].

One thing, folks. Beware of the assumptions, especially those you don't notice you are doing. I don't think the galaxy is "thick" enough to support that sphere. IIRC, and I may not, since it was a long time ago, the galaxy at our neighborhood is around 50-200 LY thick. So that sphere looks more like a disk.

Kaezar wrote:One thing, folks. Beware of the assumptions, especially those you don't notice you are doing. I don't think the galaxy is "thick" enough to support that sphere. IIRC, and I may not, since it was a long time ago, the galaxy at our neighborhood is around 50-200 LY thick. So that sphere looks more like a disk.

According to Wikipedia the spiral arms are on average about 1000ly thick.