Military Speculations

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:Merlin is in the long game. It does not really matter to him whether it gets deactivated now or in twenty years, as long as technology does not progress to the point of endangerment.

Yes, Merlin is in the "long game" but he isn't in complete control of events he has set in motion. If the OBS isn't disabled then the natural progression of innovations is going to cross the threshold of activation and the resulting "Rakuri" is going to set Safehold back a thousand years.

If the OBS and whatever is under the Temple aren't removed from considerations, Merlin and Nimue might as well go back to sleep and set the alarm for another thousand years of sleep.

Yes, I know Merlin has to take care of the orbital weapons (why do people keep calling it OBS? What does that stand for?). And he has to do it before technology advances too far. But Safehold does not appear to be in imminent danger of triggering the Rakurai. There is still plenty of time.

I never said that Merlin does not have do deal with the orbital weapons. What I have been saying is that dealing with the orbital weapons is not a direct goal of the war, because the war cannot do anything about it. In contrast, the war can (and has already) make a difference in how people (including the Church) see innovation.

Orbital Bombardment System or OBS.

thought inspired by Weird Harold...
Those who follow after the demise of the current Gof4 decide a gesture of good faith might help their situation and offer to accept a "mission" from the COC be based in Zion and meet regularly with the Council of Vicars.

Paityr is included. He's been "infected" with a set of smart nannites which passively records electronic emissions in the Temple.

Merlin, Nimue, Owl and Nahrmann will probably stick his virtual nose in,then examine the data which leads to sufficient data to enable the Inner Circle come up with a plan.

EdThomas wrote:thought inspired by Weird Harold...
Those who follow after the demise of the current Gof4 decide a gesture of good faith might help their situation and offer to accept a "mission" from the COC be based in Zion and meet regularly with the Council of Vicars.

Paityr is included. He's been "infected" with a set of smart nannites which passively records electronic emissions in the Temple.

Merlin, Nimue, Owl and Nahrmann will probably stick his virtual nose in,then examine the data which leads to sufficient data to enable the Inner Circle come up with a plan.

This doesn't deal with the temple defenses. Merlin has been avoiding the temple with his snarcs out of fear that the temple would react to advanced tech. Father Paityr would face the same issue with nannites. Either you avoid the problem altogether by using stealth or edged weapons or you overwhelm the place with Federation tech.

In a way, I suspect that the guard and the inquisition are almost beside the point here. They may well not be aware of the Temple's defenses themselves and if they are aware, I doubt they know enough to control the defenses. So all agreement to enter would mean for them would be agreement to not oppose entry with what they are aware of and can control. Therefore provision for dealing with the temple's built in defenses must be made over and above dealing with inquisition and guard.

Don

SWM wrote:Yes, I know Merlin has to take care of the orbital weapons (why do people keep calling it OBS? What does that stand for?). And he has to do it before technology advances too far. But Safehold does not appear to be in imminent danger of triggering the Rakurai. There is still plenty of time.

Hausmyn(sp) is already champing at the bit to electrify his foundries and factories and he knows how dangerous electricity could be. What happens if some home grown Thomas Edison develops electricity (as RFC says has happened in the past) and the Proscriptions aren't enforced to stop him?

SWM wrote:I never said that Merlin does not have do deal with the orbital weapons. What I have been saying is that dealing with the orbital weapons is not a direct goal of the war, because the war cannot do anything about it.

There is a very high probability that the information needed to deal with the Orbital Bombardment System if not an actual ground control station. Occupying the Temple can definitely answer the outstanding questions about what is under the Temple and whether it can deactivate the OBS.

Pissing around hoping for answers that may not exist outside of the Temple when you know the answers are in the Temple is just dumb.

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:Yes, I know Merlin has to take care of the orbital weapons (why do people keep calling it OBS? What does that stand for?). And he has to do it before technology advances too far. But Safehold does not appear to be in imminent danger of triggering the Rakurai. There is still plenty of time.

Hausmyn(sp) is already champing at the bit to electrify his foundries and factories and he knows how dangerous electricity could be. What happens if some home grown Thomas Edison develops electricity (as RFC says has happened in the past) and the Proscriptions aren't enforced to stop him?

But I never said that the explicit Proscription against electricity would or should be removed right away. All I've been saying is that a direct goal of the war is to provoke innovation.

SWM wrote:I never said that Merlin does not have do deal with the orbital weapons. What I have been saying is that dealing with the orbital weapons is not a direct goal of the war, because the war cannot do anything about it.

There is a very high probability that the information needed to deal with the Orbital Bombardment System if not an actual ground control station. Occupying the Temple can definitely answer the outstanding questions about what is under the Temple and whether it can deactivate the OBS.

Pissing around hoping for answers that may not exist outside of the Temple when you know the answers are in the Temple is just dumb.

And that makes it an indirect goal, just as I have said all along. Whereas inspiring innovation is clearly a direct goal. This is exactly what I have been saying.

SWM wrote:But I never said that the explicit Proscription against electricity would or should be removed right away. All I've been saying is that a direct goal of the war is to provoke innovation.

If you provoke innovation that breaks any of the proscriptions, you set in motion innovations that will break all of the Proscriptions. Merlin started world-wide innovation and to some extent he and the Inner Circle can guide innovation in the EOC.

What he cannot do is control innovation or shut it down when it gets too innovative. Now that innovation has been jump-started, ALL of the Proscriptions have to be suspended or negated and that means removing any possibility of automatic enforcement.

The Goal is not just "to provoke innovation" it is to make innovation possible.

n7axw wrote:[
Paityr is included. He's been "infected" with a set of smart nannites which passively records electronic emissions in the Temple.

This doesn't deal with the temple defenses. Merlin has been avoiding the temple with his snarcs out of fear that the temple would react to advanced tech. Father Paityr would face the same issue with nannites. Either you avoid the problem altogether by using stealth or edged weapons or you overwhelm the place with Federation tech.

In a way, I suspect that the guard and the inquisition are almost beside the point here. They may well not be aware of the Temple's defenses themselves and if they are aware, I doubt they know enough to control the defenses. So all agreement to enter would mean for them would be agreement to not oppose entry with what they are aware of and can control. Therefore provision for dealing with the temple's built in defenses must be made over and above dealing with inquisition and guard.

Don[/quote]
Merlin knows only what those who've been in the temple can recall seeing. He knows nothing of what the place looks like electronically. Getting passive recording devices in and out gives him more information than he has now. He can't do/plan anything now. Getting Paityr in and out a couple times will give him a tremendous amount of information the technical environment.
I suggested nannites because of their extremely low emissions signature. They may have no signature at all. I didn't want to assume too much

Weird Harold wrote:SNIP

What he cannot do is control innovation or shut it down when it gets too innovative. Now that innovation has been jump-started, ALL of the Proscriptions have to be suspended or negated and that means removing any possibility of automatic enforcement.

The Goal is not just "to provoke innovation" it is to make innovation possible.

Harold,
Merkin has chosen NOT to limit innovation outside Charis. It would have been very easy to have eliminated Thirsk's guy, Father Linkyn, or the guy who came up with the new manufacturing organization (circles?).

The thing he's afraid of is the generation of electricity. Owl can monitor places where people might be trying to develop devices that do that. This is the one type of innovation Merlin would terminate. Probably not by killing the guy but by screwing up his experiments.

Remember the experiment on Armageddon Reef with the steam engines? Chemistry is about to be re-introduced to Safehold. The chemistry lady has gone through OWL U and is champing at the bit. She'll introduce lot of stuff but it will be controlled. There are guys looking into doing some things with whale/kraken oil.

I think electricity is specifically prohibited. (Drak )I think I've read here that the Inquisition has stopped some attempts tho generate electricity (Anyone out there recall that or is my imagination on overtime? ). If they found it, OWL should be able to do the same. Generating a meaningful amount of electricity is gonna take some big machinery which is not gonna be easy to hide.

The Church lands are gonna be very focussed on moving to a set of standard measures, steam engines, organization of work and any number of other things Charis has started.

Not to worry, Paityr's nannites are gonna give our guys what they need to know to handle the sleepers and shut down the OBS. It probably happen until the next book though.

AND let's not forget RFC's got too much invested in Safehold to let some YOYO ruin it all before he's ready for it to happen.

EdThomas wrote:The thing he's afraid of is the generation of electricity. Owl can monitor places where people might be trying to develop devices that do that. This is the one type of innovation Merlin would terminate. Probably not by killing the guy but by screwing up his experiments.

Merlin isn't afraid of Electricity, he's afraid of the OBS's reaction to Electricity. The way to address that fear is to disarm/disable/shutdown/ or otherwise negate the OBS.

For Merlin, OWL, or the inner circle to stifle ANY sort of innovation, anywhere on Safehold would be counter-productive to Merlin's long-term goals. But before Merlin can pursue those long-term goals, the Proscriptions -- ALL of the Proscriptions -- have to be suspended or overturned and any possibility of automated enforcement has to be neutralized.

Merlin hasn't stifled innovation by Church innovators because that forces Clynntahn to suspend the Proscriptions in order to match or counter Charisian tech. It forces the CoGA to become just as innovative as Charis and reduces the effect of the Proscriptions. I suspect Merlin had a hand in the CoGA getting plans for a steam engine, because it will for adoption of some key prerequisites for an industrial revolution: Standardized weights and measures, metallurgy, precision machining, etc.

Merlin doesn't want to stifle innovation, he wants to encourage its unfettered growth, and that means removing the "fetters" of the Proscriptions and Rakuri/