Military Speculations

PeterZ wrote:Yes, it could happen that the OBS will be deactivated. It is more likely that it won't be. So, I think it more likely that the Inquisition loses much of its power than the Inner Circle succeeds in deactivating the OBS and neutralizing the Sleepers unobserved. Pending more information, I believe Merlin might agree.

If the OBS is not deactivated and the Temple occupied, then Merlin loses. Period. None of his plans for guiding and forcing innovation can go forward without those prerequisites.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Yes, it could happen that the OBS will be deactivated. It is more likely that it won't be. So, I think it more likely that the Inquisition loses much of its power than the Inner Circle succeeds in deactivating the OBS and neutralizing the Sleepers unobserved. Pending more information, I believe Merlin might agree.

If the OBS is not deactivated and the Temple occupied, then Merlin loses. Period. None of his plans for guiding and forcing innovation can go forward without those prerequisites.

Merlin is in the long game. It does not really matter to him whether it gets deactivated now or in twenty years, as long as technology does not progress to the point of endangerment.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Yes, it could happen that the OBS will be deactivated. It is more likely that it won't be. So, I think it more likely that the Inquisition loses much of its power than the Inner Circle succeeds in deactivating the OBS and neutralizing the Sleepers unobserved. Pending more information, I believe Merlin might agree.

If the OBS is not deactivated and the Temple occupied, then Merlin loses. Period. None of his plans for guiding and forcing innovation can go forward without those prerequisites.

Nonsense. Duchairn, Magwair and the Vicarate will gut the Inquisition for self preservation once Clyntahn is offed. The CoC will use the box of evidence to put the imprimature of justice on the purge, but it will be a purge. If Aivah knocks off a few more of Clyntahn's dirty Vicars, Duchair will have the votes to pull it off and Magwair will have the troops.

At that point Duchairn and Magwair will want a breather to regroup and marshall their resources. They'll offer to negotiate a peace and can very well accept all the stated goals of the Alliance.Unfettered access for Charisian might be a beyond their stated goals. Access for CoC and Reformist pilgrim, sure. Unlimited access for anyone from the CoC, not likely.

The cold war rages and more opportunities arise to take Zion at a later date. In the meanwhile, technological advances race ahead and a mindset develops that seaks to innovate. Dohlar will be so hammered they MUST find innovatives ways to recover. Siddermark will go along and try to build and economy and armed force that makes it impossible for anyone to ever do again what Clyntahn did in the SoS.

When the Awakening approaches and no further information is discovered, the Inner Circle will be in a better place to launch an assault. I suspect that at that time there will be many more Inner Circle members. Perhaps even a goodly number of assault troops to take advantage of all those goodies in Nimue's Cave. I wonder if there are any suits of stealth recon of battle armour?

I don't think they are nearly well enough prepared to make that assault now. Too many things can go wrong. They can afford to wait and make much better preparations.

SWM wrote:Merlin is in the long game. It does not really matter to him whether it gets deactivated now or in twenty years, as long as technology does not progress to the point of endangerment.

Yes, Merlin is in the "long game" but he isn't in complete control of events he has set in motion. If the OBS isn't disabled then the natural progression of innovations is going to cross the threshold of activation and the resulting "Rakuri" is going to set Safehold back a thousand years.

If the OBS and whatever is under the Temple aren't removed from considerations, Merlin and Nimue might as well go back to sleep and set the alarm for another thousand years of sleep.

Spoiler Alert




What if the OBS is not in an automatic mode to fire on anything 'man-made' but instead would collect data about breaks in the Proscriptions and then awaken the sleeper in the Temple. I has a self-protection mode which Merlin has noted but nothing else known to us has happened. As for the 'sleeper', I believe all we know is the rumor that the Key and a Wyllsyn are required to active something in the Temple. If it were 'common knowledge' I would think the CoGA would treat it as a special shrine.

schoeffelk wrote:What if the OBS is not in an automatic mode to fire on anything 'man-made' but instead would collect data about breaks in the Proscriptions and then awaken the sleeper in the Temple. ...

Merlin has to act as though the OBS can and will act against egregious violations of the Proscriptions -- like widespread electrical power. If that's not true nothing is lost.

If it is true and Merlin proceeds as if it isn't, Safehold gains a new Armageddon Reef.

Hi Peter,

This is conjecture. It is also possible that folk will view what happens to the temple as the judgment of God against the vicarate for its corruption. Should the seizure happen, the very least that can be said is that God stood by and watched it happen without intervening. For a Temple loyalist, that could provoke a real crisis of faith.

It has been pointed out that we really don't know that the sleepers are in the basement. That is right. We don't. Could it be that Langhorne's flagship is still hanging around after all? Or maybe the OBS is controlled from Lanhorne's flagship. I have no idea how that could be handled if true. But, it is still important to get into the basement soonest. Those sleepers are probably AIs. Or they may be the sort of recorded personality like Nimue.

But whatever they are, if at all possible, they must not be allowed to wake up on their own terms. That would be very dangerous. The politics not withstanding, Charis could end up looking like Armageddon Reef.

So, let's get Father Paityr trained on computers and get him into the basement as soon as possible. I doubt that Duchairn or any one on the Temple side would be willing to allow that. So you infiltrate and overwhelm the guards with edged weapons to avoid any hint of advanced tech. Then let our favorite Schulerite do his thing. At bare minimum what you would hope to get would be information. If OBS or sleepers are controlled by that computer, then you have the situation in hand. If not, there is a high degree of probability that you would find info on the computer that would tell you what what you are up against.

My suspicion is that the OBS is not automated or else it would have reacted to steam. Or, taking my conjecture further, it might have reacted to gunpowder. We know that gunpowder was approved about 80 years prior to Nimue's awakening as the reult of someone taking a bribe.

So my vote would be let's do it...

Don

Hey Don,

Not disagreeing about the Sleepers needing to be neutralized. My disagreement with doing so before the Inner Circle (IC) is prepared. Preparations will include finding out much more about the Temple than is currently known. Absent that data, I recommend the IC wait. Wait and prepare by teaching Father Paityr about computers, begin recruiting an assault force to be trained in Terran tech and most importantly using Aivah to learn as much as possible about the Temple.

Sending in a team with a half assed plan as soon as possible when speed is not essential is foolish and dangerous. They only have one chance to do this right. Take the time to research, prepare then execute the best plan possible. Not the best plan possible right now, but the best plan possible within the decade or two the IC believes it has.

Hi PeterZ,

Paityr has been interacting with OWL for almost 2 years, what computer training do you think he's missed?

Using Federation technology openly after you've decried Merlin entering the temple seems a bit odd.

Granted we have the 20 year hiatus, but using technology the temple sensors don't recognise as a threat would also work, while some of Aivah's sources may be quite familiar with the temple layout, besides Paityr's early years in Zion, NTM any special tips his father may have passed on.

L

PeterZ wrote:Hey Don,

Not disagreeing about the Sleepers needing to be neutralized. My disagreement with doing so before the Inner Circle (IC) is prepared. Preparations will include finding out much more about the Temple than is currently known. Absent that data, I recommend the IC wait. Wait and prepare by teaching Father Paityr about computers, begin recruiting an assault force to be trained in Terran tech and most importantly using Aivah to learn as much as possible about the Temple.

Sending in a team with a half assed plan as soon as possible when speed is not essential is foolish and dangerous. They only have one chance to do this right. Take the time to research, prepare then execute the best plan possible. Not the best plan possible right now, but the best plan possible within the decade or two the IC believes it has.

Insightfull as usual, Lyonheart.
I am sure Father Paityr knows the layout well enough. Has programming be relagated to simply commanding a computer? Surely there are bypasses that potentially need to be used, other interfaces to learn to use and a host of specialized skills required to take out a Terran tech AI. My point is that Elias Proctor was a genius at programming and he didn't get Merlin's hack correct. Certainly trying to shut down an AI that doesn't want to be shut down requires a skill set that takes more than a year on uncompressed time to learn.

More important is the security system of Zion and the resources required to deal with all its elements. I don't believe enough foreshadowing has happened to suggest the IC has enough information about those systems. Merlin's extreme caution suggests they do not.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Paityr has been interacting with OWL for almost 2 years, what computer training do you think he's missed?

Using Federation technology openly after you've decried Merlin entering the temple seems a bit odd.

Granted we have the 20 year hiatus, but using technology the temple sensors don't recognise as a threat would also work, while some of Aivah's sources may be quite familiar with the temple layout, besides Paityr's early years in Zion, NTM any special tips his father may have passed on.

L

PeterZ wrote:Hey Don,

Not disagreeing about the Sleepers needing to be neutralized. My disagreement with doing so before the Inner Circle (IC) is prepared. Preparations will include finding out much more about the Temple than is currently known. Absent that data, I recommend the IC wait. Wait and prepare by teaching Father Paityr about computers, begin recruiting an assault force to be trained in Terran tech and most importantly using Aivah to learn as much as possible about the Temple.

Sending in a team with a half assed plan as soon as possible when speed is not essential is foolish and dangerous. They only have one chance to do this right. Take the time to research, prepare then execute the best plan possible. Not the best plan possible right now, but the best plan possible within the decade or two the IC believes it has.