Military Speculations

The question is when? "Put it to the touch" now or later "to win or lose it all"?

laz wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Of course disabling the OBS is possible. I just think the risks in sending an army to control the Temple and the storming it are grave. If the Temple awakens early and initiates the OBS against an invading ICA, Charis might loose all they had gained in destroying CoGA credibility. If it becomes known that Charis conquered the Temple and destroyed divine gifts left there by the archangels, Charis and the Inner Circle might forever be tainted as servants of the Dark.

Pending more data, settle for the cold war. If no data comes before the awakening take your chances with an expanded tech base and the awakened archangels. Perhaps spark another war then and invade Zion. Save that decision until there are no more options. Right now there are options besides and all or nothing gambit to take Zion.

If I where part of the inner circle I would assume that what ever is asleep would be able to control the OBS, (and make coffee).

Given that assumption, I would have to assume that anyone with control of the OBS would be unhinged enough to use it on the entire EoC to re-establish "control".

So I would be voting for control of Zion or the OBS (or destruction of the OBS).

I can't help but wonder what North Korea would do if it had the OBS.


laz

The cold war only happens after the Allies achieve their stated war aims. Those aims were discussed in another thread. Until those aims are reached, keep fighting. My belief is that Duchairn will offer terms that will satisfy the Allies as soon as he and/or Aivah off Clyntahn.

As for raiding the Temple, no one knows what thresholds are set to awaken/activate AIs or stored personalities. A raid might well trigger the Awakening.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Of course disabling the OBS is possible. I just think the risks in sending an army to control the Temple and the storming it are grave. If the Temple awakens early and initiates the OBS against an invading ICA, Charis might loose all they had gained in destroying CoGA credibility.

Why would Charis send an army when a commando style raid is less risky and more precise -- and doesn't involve bombarding the Temple and creating obvious damage.

PeterZ wrote:If it becomes known that Charis conquered the Temple and destroyed divine gifts left there by the archangels, Charis and the Inner Circle might forever be tainted as servants of the Dark.

Sooner or later, Charis/Merlin will have to deal with the Temple defenses. Charis and the most prominent innovators are going to be reviles as Shan Wei's Servants from some sector of the population right up to the final battle with the Gbaba, whether they deal with the sleepers or not.

PeterZ wrote:Pending more data, settle for the cold war. If no data comes before the awakening take your chances with an expanded tech base and the awakened archangels. Perhaps spark another war then and invade Zion. Save that decision until there are no more options. Right now there are options besides and all or nothing gambit to take Zion.

A Cold War accomplishes nothing if the Temple still controls the OBS and there still Temple Loyalists in charge of the Temple. If the Proscriptions can't be pushed beyond Steam because the threat of Rakuri still hangs overhead, Charis runs the risk of destruction for no real gain over the end of the war.

I'm not sure just how the Temple will be taken, but a Siege or Assault by a conventional army is probably the least probable outcome.

PeterZ wrote:The cold war only happens after the Allies achieve their stated war aims. Those aims were discussed in another thread. Until those aims are reached, keep fighting. My belief is that Duchairn will offer terms that will satisfy the Allies as soon as he and/or Aivah off Clyntahn.

One of the "terms that will satisfy the Allies" has to be unrestricted access to the Temple. The War Aims can't be fulfilled without that as an absolute minimum.

PeterZ wrote:As for raiding the Temple, no one knows what thresholds are set to awaken/activate AIs or stored personalities. A raid might well trigger the Awakening.

The "raid" by inquisitors to unjustly kill or capture all moderate priests doesn't seem to have disturbed any slumbers or excited anything in orbit. As long as Merlin and Nimue stay away from the actual assault, there is no difference between an invading commando force and internal security forces. Any triggering of an Awakening would have to be manually initiated, and that is a risk the commando force (or someone will have to take at some point.

Did people not read what I said? David Weber DOES NOT SAY that there will be a cold war. That is an unwarranted assumption being made by people on this forum. It might happen, but it might not. Please don't act as if this hypothetical cold war is an established fact.

It's hard for me to imagine the COGA voluntarily agreeing to an occupation of the temple even if Duchairn is in control. For one thing he still believes in COGA. Secondly, even if Clyntahn gets taken out, plenty of his cronies will survive him. Besides, it would be about like Muslims surrendering control of Mecca to Christians!

My vote would be for the raid from the seaward side. We know from textev that there are no significant military forces in Zion so it should be doable. And soonest. The quicker we get someone into the basement, the better. My thoight is to take Father Paityr to Nimue's cave and train him in the use of computers and once control of the temple is achieved, send him to the basement.

Don

As I mentioned in other threads, access to the Temple doesn't mean unobserved access. Neither does it mean the Temple's security systems won't be turned on or up higher. Destroying or attempting to destroy elements of the Temple won't be unobserved. If the Inner Circle is caught trying to destroy the Temple Sleepers or elements in the Temple, even loyal Charisians will lose faith in them. Attempting to use Father Paityr's Key is like pushing a button on a dangerous machine without knowing what will happen. Using the Key could bring about the awakening the Inner Circle wants to avoid.

Yes, it could happen that the OBS will be deactivated. It is more likely that it won't be. So, I think it more likely that the Inquisition loses much of its power than the Inner Circle succeeds in deactivating the OBS and neutralizing the Sleepers unobserved. Pending more information, I believe Merlin might agree.

Weird Harold wrote:

PeterZ wrote:The cold war only happens after the Allies achieve their stated war aims. Those aims were discussed in another thread. Until those aims are reached, keep fighting. My belief is that Duchairn will offer terms that will satisfy the Allies as soon as he and/or Aivah off Clyntahn.

One of the "terms that will satisfy the Allies" has to be unrestricted access to the Temple. The War Aims can't be fulfilled without that as an absolute minimum.

PeterZ wrote:As for raiding the Temple, no one knows what thresholds are set to awaken/activate AIs or stored personalities. A raid might well trigger the Awakening.

The "raid" by inquisitors to unjustly kill or capture all moderate priests doesn't seem to have disturbed any slumbers or excited anything in orbit. As long as Merlin and Nimue stay away from the actual assault, there is no difference between an invading commando force and internal security forces. Any triggering of an Awakening would have to be manually initiated, and that is a risk the commando force (or someone will have to take at some point.

n7axw wrote:It's hard for me to imagine the COGA voluntarily agreeing to an occupation of the temple even if Duchairn is in control. For one thing he still believes in COGA. Secondly, even if Clyntahn gets taken out, plenty of his cronies will survive him. Besides, it would be about like Muslims surrendering control of Mecca to Christians!

My vote would be for the raid from the seaward side. We know from textev that there are no significant military forces in Zion so it should be doable. And soonest. The quicker we get someone into the basement, the better. My thoight is to take Father Paityr to Nimue's cave and train him in the use of computers and once control of the temple is achieved, send him to the basement.

Don

I agree. Waiting around 20 years for a cold war just puts them into the time-frame when whatever is under the Temple will be awakening anyway. Get Paityr in there as you say. Better to do this on their terms than whoever's planted the sleepers.

SWM wrote:Did people not read what I said? David Weber DOES NOT SAY that there will be a cold war. That is an unwarranted assumption being made by people on this forum. It might happen, but it might not. Please don't act as if this hypothetical cold war is an established fact.

Yes, people are jumping on the cold war band-wagon. But there really are so many directions RFC could take with this story. As I said in another post, I think the "cold war" would hold little interest as a story line. I suppose, as PeterZ mentioned, it could be embedded in a time-jump between books, but as you point out there is no evidence one way or the other.

AncientMariner wrote:

SWM wrote:Did people not read what I said? David Weber DOES NOT SAY that there will be a cold war. That is an unwarranted assumption being made by people on this forum. It might happen, but it might not. Please don't act as if this hypothetical cold war is an established fact.

Yes, people are jumping on the cold war band-wagon. But there really are so many directions RFC could take with this story. As I said in another post, I think the "cold war" would hold little interest as a story line. I suppose, as PeterZ mentioned, it could be embedded in a time-jump between books, but as you point out there is no evidence one way or the other.

How the heck does a hiatus get set up after the Sleepers are taken care of and the OBS deactivated?

If the Temple is completely defanged, how does a cold war happen? How do the loyalists stay within spitting distance of Charis tech? All the spying in the world won't matter as OWL can speed up Charisian tech progression. There are literally no constraints on the Allies. When a hot war renews, it'll be military porn with the ICA executing their enemies.

No, the OBS and/or the Sleepers will survive this current war. The Temple won't be defanged. Those are literary reasons. There are real constraints as I mentioned in prior posts.

PeterZ wrote:How the heck does a hiatus get set up after the Sleepers are taken care of and the OBS deactivated?

If the Temple is completely defanged, how does a cold war happen? How do the loyalists stay within spitting distance of Charis tech? All the spying in the world won't matter as OWL can speed up Charisian tech progression. There are literally no constraints on the Allies. When a hot war renews, it'll be military porn with the ICA executing their enemies.

No, the OBS and/or the Sleepers will survive this current war. The Temple won't be defanged. Those are literary reasons. There are real constraints as I mentioned in prior posts.

Who said that the OBS and Sleepers would be taken care of before the hiatus begins? You are responding to me and AncientMariner, and neither of us said any such thing. For that matter, neither of us said that there were any sleepers (that's another unwarranted assumption people have been making).