Military Speculations

SYED wrote:The cold war might eh only source of conflict, the church loosing its power, and publicly revealed to be corrupt.While it would still retain power and influence, i doubt they will keep the power to command nations and their rulers. I wonder if they might loose stuff being nationalised by a country.THe republic might be expanding it boarders.
THe servere economic issues of the crusade will come to roost, so nations will need to deal with this. THe church used to help ensure the peace, there potetnially will be revolutions and conflicts in and between countris. there are still serfs and slaves on the mainland, so if conditions worsened, i can see it going badly.
THe harchong may be stuck with an armed and trained army, so insteado sending them home, they might simply sent them to war. There are two direction, east in to the temple lands or possibly the border states, to ensure the republic does not advance too close.
It could also send the army south, to expand the empire down there, while the desnair empire is a possibility, i expect sodar and delfranck to be targets.

If the Harchonese get hammered as badly as I think, they aren't going to be in a position to conquer anybody. Given the arc of the story, it seems to me that we have defeated and exhausted COGA realms facing triumphant EOC standing alongside a resurgent and very angry Siddamark which leaves me wondering if there is to be a cold war, who is to be on the other side.

The other thing I wonder about is the inquisition. To cut off its head in Zion is not the same as to root it out everywhere. In places like Harchong and Desnair, I could see it retaining considerable power as the defenders of a church people are afraid they are about to lose. So how does this work out? Very murky and quite messy...

Don

SWM wrote:It most certainly is a goal of the war, and it is already happening. There has been more innovation introduced on Safehold in the last few years than in the previous thousand. And it is being picked up by the nations allied with the CoGA. Merlin has said repeatedly that this is why he came to Charis in the first place--to spark this innovation. This is an explicitly stated goal of the war.

In this war the goal is to introduce the idea of innovating as a means of winning or defending oneself in a war. Actually changing the mindset completely is well beyond possibility in THIS war. It will take much longer to accomplish that. What might be accomplished in this war is to remove the Inquisition as the CoGA's guarantor of stasis. That does not mean innovation suddenly becomes socially/morally acceptable. It only means the sudden death visited to innovators by the Inquisition stops. Social pressure and individuals might well compell a would be innovator to cease and decist his innovative activities. That will go on for quite some time in many places on Safehold.

PeterZ wrote:

SWM wrote:It most certainly is a goal of the war, and it is already happening. There has been more innovation introduced on Safehold in the last few years than in the previous thousand. And it is being picked up by the nations allied with the CoGA. Merlin has said repeatedly that this is why he came to Charis in the first place--to spark this innovation. This is an explicitly stated goal of the war.

In this war the goal is to introduce the idea of innovating as a means of winning or defending oneself in a war. Actually changing the mindset completely is well beyond possibility in THIS war. It will take much longer to accomplish that. What might be accomplished in this war is to remove the Inquisition as the CoGA's guarantor of stasis. That does not mean innovation suddenly becomes socially/morally acceptable. It only means the sudden death visited to innovators by the Inquisition stops. Social pressure and individuals might well compell a would be innovator to cease and decist his innovative activities. That will go on for quite some time in many places on Safehold.

Perhaps I overstated what I meant. I did not mean that the war could completely change the mindsets. I only meant that a specific goal of the war, in Merlin's mind, was to break down the stranglehold of the Proscriptions and start innovation going. I did not mean that the war could complete the process of removing all restrictions--I don't think that will be possible until the Big Reveal.

And this is very different from what Weird Harold was talking about, which was removing the danger from the orbital KEW weapons.

SWM wrote:Perhaps I overstated what I meant. I did not mean that the war could completely change the mindsets. I only meant that a specific goal of the war, in Merlin's mind, was to break down the stranglehold of the Proscriptions and start innovation going. I did not mean that the war could complete the process of removing all restrictions--I don't think that will be possible until the Big Reveal.

And this is very different from what Weird Harold was talking about, which was removing the danger from the orbital KEW weapons.

I would suspect that removing the OBS is a goal for THIS war but not one of the stated aims of the Allies. Even so, I doubt they will achieve that goal. The only way a cold war would manifest is for the OBS to still be active but the Inquisition defanged.

Taking out the Sleepers and the OBS simply means terran tech can slowly enter Charisian manufacturing. That would pretty much put paid to any military resistence anyone might put up. Without the OBS and Sleepers revealing the Big Lie can happen and the Inner Circle can wait for the rest of the population to come to terms with any ramifications.

SWM wrote:I found the interview and listened to it. (The link was not in the Clyntahn's Fate thread, though.)

David Weber does not say that there will be a cold war. He says there will be two more books on the war with the Group of Four, and then there will be
"a twenty-year or so hiatus on Safehold while technology kind of changes and morphs and what not, and then they are gonna have to deal with telling the Truth about Archangels and so forth, which is gonna kick off another war which will be even nastier in some ways but probably shorter."

A "hiatus" does not necessarily mean a cold war. It means a period between the war with the Go4 and the war over the Big Reveal.

So I stand by my previous statement--there does not have to be a cold war between the CoC and CoGA to promote innovation on Safehold.

Hi SWM, I am in agreement with you here, I don't think there needs to be a cold war in order to have advancement. I would like to add a further point that I don't think has been made yet. I don't think there will be a cold war becase, from a story point of view, it would be a rather significant departure from the tone of the series. I think RFC could pull it off, but cold-war intrigue is not what I read this series for, and I would gamble a lot of people would agree. We want our huge battles!

AncientMariner wrote:

SWM wrote:I found the interview and listened to it. (The link was not in the Clyntahn's Fate thread, though.)

David Weber does not say that there will be a cold war. He says there will be two more books on the war with the Group of Four, and then there will be
"a twenty-year or so hiatus on Safehold while technology kind of changes and morphs and what not, and then they are gonna have to deal with telling the Truth about Archangels and so forth, which is gonna kick off another war which will be even nastier in some ways but probably shorter."

A "hiatus" does not necessarily mean a cold war. It means a period between the war with the Go4 and the war over the Big Reveal.

So I stand by my previous statement--there does not have to be a cold war between the CoC and CoGA to promote innovation on Safehold.

Hi SWM, I am in agreement with you here, I don't think there needs to be a cold war in order to have advancement. I would like to add a further point that I don't think has been made yet. I don't think there will be a cold war becase, from a story point of view, it would be a rather significant departure from the tone of the series. I think RFC could pull it off, but cold-war intrigue is not what I read this series for, and I would gamble a lot of people would agree. We want our huge battles!

As I understand it, the cold war would be skipped over and the story resumes 20 odd years later when it will heat up again.

PeterZ wrote:I would suspect that removing the OBS is a goal for THIS war but not one of the stated aims of the Allies. Even so, I doubt they will achieve that goal. The only way a cold war would manifest is for the OBS to still be active but the Inquisition defanged.

I think disabling the OBS is entirely possible, even if getting rid of the physical system isn't. It is certainly more possible than "defanging" the Inquisition. It is certainly possible to defang the Inquisition in areas that Charis controls, but unless they control the entire planet, they cannot completely eliminate the Inquisition.

A Cold War can't progress beyond Steam-power as long as the OBS is a threat to enforce the Proscriptions automatically. A Cold War against "The Inquisition in Exile" can force even die-hard Inquisitors to suspend the Proscriptions beyond what the OBS would theoretically supress.

PeterZ wrote:Taking out the Sleepers and the OBS simply means terran tech can slowly enter Charisian manufacturing. That would pretty much put paid to any military resistence anyone might put up.

Either Cold War or Economic Forces will stimulate espionage and innovation to enable survival against Charis' military superiority. That means any Terran Tech Charis introduces will cross borders and be used to resist Charis' influence.

PeterZ wrote:Without the OBS and Sleepers revealing the Big Lie can happen and the Inner Circle can wait for the rest of the population to come to terms with any ramifications.

It isn't the Sleepers and OBS that are preventing the "Big Reveal" it's centuries of tradition, culture, religion, et al that would cause a knee-jerk rejection of the "Big Reveal." Even within the Charisian Hierarchy, there are people who would be useful to the Inner Circle who can't be brought into the circle because of the conflict with their beliefs it would cause.

It is going to take 20+ years of life without the threat of "rakuri" and the Inquisition enforcing the Proscriptions to soften the beliefs of the young and the old to expire before the man-on-the-street can accept the Big Reveal.

Of course disabling the OBS is possible. I just think the risks in sending an army to control the Temple and the storming it are grave. If the Temple awakens early and initiates the OBS against an invading ICA, Charis might loose all they had gained in destroying CoGA credibility. If it becomes known that Charis conquered the Temple and destroyed divine gifts left there by the archangels, Charis and the Inner Circle might forever be tainted as servants of the Dark.

Pending more data, settle for the cold war. If no data comes before the awakening take your chances with an expanded tech base and the awakened archangels. Perhaps spark another war then and invade Zion. Save that decision until there are no more options. Right now there are options besides and all or nothing gambit to take Zion.

PeterZ wrote:Of course disabling the OBS is possible. I just think the risks in sending an army to control the Temple and the storming it are grave. If the Temple awakens early and initiates the OBS against an invading ICA, Charis might loose all they had gained in destroying CoGA credibility.

Why would Charis send an army when a commando style raid is less risky and more precise -- and doesn't involve bombarding the Temple and creating obvious damage.

PeterZ wrote:If it becomes known that Charis conquered the Temple and destroyed divine gifts left there by the archangels, Charis and the Inner Circle might forever be tainted as servants of the Dark.

Sooner or later, Charis/Merlin will have to deal with the Temple defenses. Charis and the most prominent innovators are going to be reviles as Shan Wei's Servants from some sector of the population right up to the final battle with the Gbaba, whether they deal with the sleepers or not.

PeterZ wrote:Pending more data, settle for the cold war. If no data comes before the awakening take your chances with an expanded tech base and the awakened archangels. Perhaps spark another war then and invade Zion. Save that decision until there are no more options. Right now there are options besides and all or nothing gambit to take Zion.

A Cold War accomplishes nothing if the Temple still controls the OBS and there still Temple Loyalists in charge of the Temple. If the Proscriptions can't be pushed beyond Steam because the threat of Rakuri still hangs overhead, Charis runs the risk of destruction for no real gain over the end of the war.

I'm not sure just how the Temple will be taken, but a Siege or Assault by a conventional army is probably the least probable outcome.

PeterZ wrote:Of course disabling the OBS is possible. I just think the risks in sending an army to control the Temple and the storming it are grave. If the Temple awakens early and initiates the OBS against an invading ICA, Charis might loose all they had gained in destroying CoGA credibility. If it becomes known that Charis conquered the Temple and destroyed divine gifts left there by the archangels, Charis and the Inner Circle might forever be tainted as servants of the Dark.

Pending more data, settle for the cold war. If no data comes before the awakening take your chances with an expanded tech base and the awakened archangels. Perhaps spark another war then and invade Zion. Save that decision until there are no more options. Right now there are options besides and all or nothing gambit to take Zion.

If I where part of the inner circle I would assume that what ever is asleep would be able to control the OBS, (and make coffee).

Given that assumption, I would have to assume that anyone with control of the OBS would be unhinged enough to use it on the entire EoC to re-establish "control".

So I would be voting for control of Zion or the OBS (or destruction of the OBS).

I can't help but wonder what North Korea would do if it had the OBS.


laz