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Military Speculations

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Re: Military Speculations
Post by Weird Harold   » Tue Jun 24, 2014 11:01 pm

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n7axw wrote:What I am really reacting to is the notion of an artificially induced cold war. There was nothing artificial about the real one.


I don't recall saying anything about Safehold's Cold War being artificially induced...

Artificially prolonged, maybe, if Merlin has his way and innovation doesn't progress as fast and as far as he wants, but the Cold War will in no way be "artificial."

n7axw wrote:... That being said, you don't leave Clyntahn or his cronies in place to enforce the proscriptions at all. The are no formally stated war aims on the Alliance side, but the most consistantly stated goals is to purge the Temple of corruption and insist on justice for crimes commited by the inquisition; indeed break the power of the inquisition to coerce. That is how David has told the story so far. In my view, the way you do that is to get rid of that crowd altogether.


The aim of the current war -- as far as Merlin is concerned -- is to remove the threat of the OBS and solve the mystery of the sleepers under the Temple. To do that, the current war cannot end without Charisian forces occupying Zion and the Temple. That implies the capture or exile of the Grand Vicar, Duchairn and Magwair and termination of Clynntahn. But even if the entire Council of Vicars is terminated, there will be Rabid Temple Loyalists remaining in the conquered territories and the Empire of Harchong to play the antagonist role in the initial cold war.


n7axw wrote:If there is to be a cold war on Safehold, it will be because of unresolved conflict, more than likely because there will be those who don't accept the military verdict. It won't be because Cayleb and Sharley go looking for enemies to justify military spending.


You're still confusing a "Cold War" with an "Arms Race." Safehold does NOT need an "Arms Race" such as the one prevented by the Washington Naval Treaty:
The Washington Naval Treaty, also known as the Five-Power Treaty, was a treaty among the major nations that had won World War I, which by the terms of the treaty agreed to prevent an arms race by limiting naval construction.


Merlin told Cayleb (King Harahld?) early on that his goals were not necessarily Charis' goals. Cayleb and Sharlayne won't have to go looking for enemies "to justify military spending" they will have genuine antagonists to deal with thanks to Merlin's meddling. I'm not sure what exactly Merlin's meddling will consist of, but the Church being in possession of plans for a steam engine smacks of the kind of meddling I'd expect.

One of Merlin's goals is to stimulate innovation all over Safehold; by making the CoGA counter Charis' tech advances he forces the CoGA to accept innovation and become innovators like Charis. IOW, Merlin wants to force the rest of Safehold to become like Charis.

Using the fanaticism of exiled temple loyalists and CoGA hierarchy, Merlin gets what he wants in pressuring broad spectrum innovations through a Cold War -- NOT simply an Arms Race -- and undermines the fanaticism in the process.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by n7axw   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:28 am

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Weird Harold wrote:
n7axw wrote:What I am really reacting to is the notion of an artificially induced cold war. There was nothing artificial about the real one.


I don't recall saying anything about Safehold's Cold War being artificially induced...

Artificially prolonged, maybe, if Merlin has his way and innovation doesn't progress as fast and as far as he wants, but the Cold War will in no way be "artificial."

n7axw wrote:... That being said, you don't leave Clyntahn or his cronies in place to enforce the proscriptions at all. The are no formally stated war aims on the Alliance side, but the most consistantly stated goals is to purge the Temple of corruption and insist on justice for crimes commited by the inquisition; indeed break the power of the inquisition to coerce. That is how David has told the story so far. In my view, the way you do that is to get rid of that crowd altogether.


The aim of the current war -- as far as Merlin is concerned -- is to remove the threat of the OBS and solve the mystery of the sleepers under the Temple. To do that, the current war cannot end without Charisian forces occupying Zion and the Temple. That implies the capture or exile of the Grand Vicar, Duchairn and Magwair and termination of Clynntahn. But even if the entire Council of Vicars is terminated, there will be Rabid Temple Loyalists remaining in the conquered territories and the Empire of Harchong to play the antagonist role in the initial cold war.


n7axw wrote:If there is to be a cold war on Safehold, it will be because of unresolved conflict, more than likely because there will be those who don't accept the military verdict. It won't be because Cayleb and Sharley go looking for enemies to justify military spending.


You're still confusing a "Cold War" with an "Arms Race." Safehold does NOT need an "Arms Race" such as the one prevented by the Washington Naval Treaty:
The Washington Naval Treaty, also known as the Five-Power Treaty, was a treaty among the major nations that had won World War I, which by the terms of the treaty agreed to prevent an arms race by limiting naval construction.


Merlin told Cayleb (King Harahld?) early on that his goals were not necessarily Charis' goals. Cayleb and Sharlayne won't have to go looking for enemies "to justify military spending" they will have genuine antagonists to deal with thanks to Merlin's meddling. I'm not sure what exactly Merlin's meddling will consist of, but the Church being in possession of plans for a steam engine smacks of the kind of meddling I'd expect.

One of Merlin's goals is to stimulate innovation all over Safehold; by making the CoGA counter Charis' tech advances he forces the CoGA to accept innovation and become innovators like Charis. IOW, Merlin wants to force the rest of Safehold to become like Charis.

Using the fanaticism of exiled temple loyalists and CoGA hierarchy, Merlin gets what he wants in pressuring broad spectrum innovations through a Cold War -- NOT simply an Arms Race -- and undermines the fanaticism in the process.


I guess we will have to wait and see how RFC plays it.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by lyonheart   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:12 am

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Hi Thucydides,

Its always good to read your posts.

But I have a few nits. ;)

The US wasn't that bad off in regards to aircraft, yes the Curtiss P-40 wasn't up to the latest European designs, but sheer numbers could compensate as the soviets demonstrated, while US twin-engined bombers were world class as the A-20 and Martin bombers proved.

The Corsair, P-38 and P-47 were pre-war designs, the P-51, P-61, P-63, Hellcat and Bearcat were all war designs.

The British didn't really have a modern civil aviation sector before the war, being tiny by US or German standards, average production being handfuls.

The first time there is any mention of some kind of deal between FDR and Churchill about Britain abandoning civil aviation was the Nazi propaganda magazine Signal in 1943, which obviously lied but there are too many Brit's who believe it without any foundation.

While almost 200 DC-2's and 500 DC-3's and as many Lockheed's were built and in service before Pearl Harbor (not counting hundreds more as foreign licensed copies), there wasn't a single model of any modern British airliner than had as many as 50 built or 30 kept in service, let alone carry as many as the DC-3 besides the coming generation of US 4 engined airliners, the Boeing 307, Douglass DC-4E and DC-4/C-54, and Lockheed Constellation that were world leaders until the jets.

Remember Chamberlain flew to Munich in a Lockheed 14 because that was the most modern airliner in British service.

Post war you left out the de Havilland Comet which as a pioneer jet liner made many of the mistakes any lead might have.

L


Thucydides wrote:Lots of different factors affected aviation in the inter war years, and a lot had to do with what sort of society you are looking at.

In the United States, the primary drivers of innovation were such things as government mail contracts, air racing and other prize competitions (Lindberg flew solo across the atlantic for such a prize; the Atlantic itself and been crossed before...) and chasing prestige. Newspaper stories of aviation firsts and the fame which came of them spurred people to do many strange and foolish things, but also develop new techniques, technologies and build new types of aircraft. Military development was woefully behind that of Europe, and the US entered WWII with grossly outmatched aircraft. One reason the US could turn its situation round so quickly is the sheer number of aircraft companies that existed at the time, there were ma y different competitors for many of the same "markets" and multiple solutions to the same "problems". Long range fighters? How about the P-51, P-47 or P-38? Companies like Curtiss, Brewster and Bell also made fighters, and the Naval aviation niche also had multiple companies creating aircraft as well. And we haven't even started on bombers...

In the UK, government "guided" the development of advanced military and civilian aircraft. Because of the pressures of the war, research was preferentially devoted to a narrow slice of military aviation, which meant that the UK had effectively killed its civil aviation sector during the war, and relied on the US for transportation aircraft. Since some government bureaucrats saw what was coming, they formed a committee to develop new aircraft for the post war world, but being bureaucrats, they failed to see what sorts of aircraft the market really wanted, sponsoring oddities like the Saunders Roe "Princess" flying boat (marginally smaller than the "Spruce Goose") and the giant Brabazon airliner. Simpler, cheaper and (lets face it) more rugged American aircraft were what the market really wanted, and even military projects were quickly converted to the civil market if at all possible (the Boeing 707 is the prime case in point).

Military aviation is a bit like Formula One racing. Since you need to go to extremes, military aircraft often debut advanced new features, some of which eventually make their way into the civil market. Today's markets are much smaller and have far fewer players, which makes military R&D a far larger slice of the pie than in (say) consumer electronics.
Last edited by lyonheart on Fri Jun 27, 2014 12:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by SWM   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 7:54 am

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Weird Harold wrote:The aim of the current war -- as far as Merlin is concerned -- is to remove the threat of the OBS and solve the mystery of the sleepers under the Temple.

Nit:
Merlin is not trying to "solve the mystery of the sleepers under the Temple." He is trying to determine what is under the temple, and he is trying to solve the mystery of the predicted Return of the Archangels--which may not be the same things.

Also, I disagree that Merlin sees the aim of the current war being any of those things. His goal for the current war is to break the Proscriptions and ignite innovation. He is also trying to do those other things you mention, but I don't think Merlin sees the current war as the primary means of achieving them. They might be goals which may (or may not) be indirectly aided by the war, but ending the Proscriptions is the goal directly achieved by the war.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by SWM   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:25 am

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I found the interview and listened to it. (The link was not in the Clyntahn's Fate thread, though.)

David Weber does not say that there will be a cold war. He says there will be two more books on the war with the Group of Four, and then there will be
"a twenty-year or so hiatus on Safehold while technology kind of changes and morphs and what not, and then they are gonna have to deal with telling the Truth about Archangels and so forth, which is gonna kick off another war which will be even nastier in some ways but probably shorter."

A "hiatus" does not necessarily mean a cold war. It means a period between the war with the Go4 and the war over the Big Reveal.

So I stand by my previous statement--there does not have to be a cold war between the CoC and CoGA to promote innovation on Safehold.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:20 pm

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SWM wrote:
Weird Harold wrote:The aim of the current war -- as far as Merlin is concerned -- is to remove the threat of the OBS and solve the mystery of the sleepers under the Temple.

...

Also, I disagree that Merlin sees the aim of the current war being any of those things. His goal for the current war is to break the Proscriptions and ignite innovation. He is also trying to do those other things you mention, but I don't think Merlin sees the current war as the primary means of achieving them. They might be goals which may (or may not) be indirectly aided by the war, but ending the Proscriptions is the goal directly achieved by the war.


We're arguing the same war aims for Merlin, just using different benchmarks. The current war is to remove the Proscriptions, but They can't be removed until the OBS and whatever is under the temple are dealt with, and dealing with those threats will effectively remove the Proscriptions as a limitation on innovation -- Six of one, half a dozen of the other.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by SWM   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:07 pm

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Weird Harold wrote:
SWM wrote:Also, I disagree that Merlin sees the aim of the current war being any of those things. His goal for the current war is to break the Proscriptions and ignite innovation. He is also trying to do those other things you mention, but I don't think Merlin sees the current war as the primary means of achieving them. They might be goals which may (or may not) be indirectly aided by the war, but ending the Proscriptions is the goal directly achieved by the war.


We're arguing the same war aims for Merlin, just using different benchmarks. The current war is to remove the Proscriptions, but They can't be removed until the OBS and whatever is under the temple are dealt with, and dealing with those threats will effectively remove the Proscriptions as a limitation on innovation -- Six of one, half a dozen of the other.

No, there is a big difference. I am talking about removing the effect of the Proscriptions in the minds of the people, i.e. to get people thinking in innovative ways. You are talking about removing the potential for enforcement of the Proscriptions by the orbital system. They are different problems. I believe the war is a direct attack on the first problem, but is at best an indirect attack on the second and may not help at all.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by Weird Harold   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:33 pm

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SWM wrote:... I am talking about removing the effect of the Proscriptions in the minds of the people, ...


That isn't a goal of the current war and would be virtually impossible even if it was a war goal. That is a long-term goal and the probable target of a Cold War, if one (or more) happens.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by SYED   » Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:18 pm

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The cold war might eh only source of conflict, the church loosing its power, and publicly revealed to be corrupt.While it would still retain power and influence, i doubt they will keep the power to command nations and their rulers. I wonder if they might loose stuff being nationalised by a country.THe republic might be expanding it boarders.
THe servere economic issues of the crusade will come to roost, so nations will need to deal with this. THe church used to help ensure the peace, there potetnially will be revolutions and conflicts in and between countris. there are still serfs and slaves on the mainland, so if conditions worsened, i can see it going badly.
THe harchong may be stuck with an armed and trained army, so insteado sending them home, they might simply sent them to war. There are two direction, east in to the temple lands or possibly the border states, to ensure the republic does not advance too close.
It could also send the army south, to expand the empire down there, while the desnair empire is a possibility, i expect sodar and delfranck to be targets.
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Re: Military Speculations
Post by SWM   » Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:08 am

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Weird Harold wrote:
SWM wrote:... I am talking about removing the effect of the Proscriptions in the minds of the people, ...


That isn't a goal of the current war and would be virtually impossible even if it was a war goal. That is a long-term goal and the probable target of a Cold War, if one (or more) happens.

It most certainly is a goal of the war, and it is already happening. There has been more innovation introduced on Safehold in the last few years than in the previous thousand. And it is being picked up by the nations allied with the CoGA. Merlin has said repeatedly that this is why he came to Charis in the first place--to spark this innovation. This is an explicitly stated goal of the war.
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