Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)

Deqnius wrote:Unlikly. Messing with Langhorn canal will be nearly impossible now that the Temple knows to blow the locks when it has to.
As to the industry of Dohlar, building a fleet that size and maitaining it will require no small production abase. It was mensioned in one in the previos books that the church was shifting weapon production from navy to army. So a lot of the army supply industry will be near the cost.
Next, fighting a sea battle is not the same as fighting a land one. It was also explained during the attack of Ithria.If your enemy attacks he will chose the time so the wind and the current will be in his favor. So I don't believe Thirsk galleons will be able maneur around ironclads and armored galleons to get to whats behind them. Not without paying one hell of a price, that will make them less than able to handle the normal galleons that should be positioned and aligned behing them. Screw galleys would be another thing, however Thirsk doesnt have nearly enough of them and I dont see him geting the resourses to build them. Not sinse it's known that they are not ships he can bring in blue water fight. Still, even they cant match ironclads speed and maneurability.
If you mean that Thirsk can disperse his fleet to numerous direction and fight that kind of battle, it will be even worse. Rock Point has SNARKS and can simply hunt them down before asaulting the gorath harbour. Ships need ports - food, supplys and more. Spreading the fleet will be an invitation to be quickly chewed in little bites.

Consider that a serious threat of messing with the Langhorne or the rivers/Canals leading to it or the rivers/canals in their Logistic chain will cause them to blow them up, this is a victory in itself. When the Riverboats are unleased on the Silkiah side or the Dohlar side, Church waterborn logistics are toast.

Thirsk's Fleet will also be history by the late summer. South Harchong (as the prime manufacturing base) will be cut off from all of the North by land or sea.

Harchong's Army (now Duchairn's and Maigwair's army) is the primary threat to the allied forces. It will be difficult to stop them but not hard to turn them - to Dohlar!

Hi Deqnius,

Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated house.

Oh dear.

I'm not sure what you're saying here, so please use your spell checker, and proof read your draft because your intent is hard to understand.

I'm curious why you think I said Sharpfield brought a lot of marines when I specifically stated he didn't?

Regarding a 'decent amount of armored galleons', there are only 6 Rottweilers, so with 2 in the Gulf of Jahras, there only 2 more for all the rest of the ICN fleets, so if they do send them to Sharpfield, is 4 what you call a decent number?

Even if the King Harald VII's are completed in June, less than 8 month's from lay-down, it'll probably be fall before they face Thirsk; besides working up, NTM the idea of spending only a month or two to train up on a brand new class of ships where almost everything is brand new boggles the mind, they will then have a 14,000+ mile trip around Howard at minimum for at least 55 if not 60 days steaming without weather and little things like coaling besides some guaranteed maintenance issues, so it will be late summer at best, as in September, if not October before they get to Claw Island etc, assuming that's where they decide to send them then.

But who knows?

By July etc, they might change their minds and figure Temple Bay might be more effective.

So its quite possible that Thirsk's fleet will still be intact past early autumn, though not for too much longer.

Then again, you have apparently missed the long threads on why taking the Silkiah Canal is strategically important, especially to Sharpfield; since getting the ironclads into the Gulf of Dohlar soon, possibly this spring obviates having to get the King Harald VII's there by fall.

The obvious effects of the blockade of the Gulf of Dohlar has been treated by me NTM other posters in various threads too many times to list, this thread is dealing with SYED's point that Dohlar's rather long coast invites amphibious raids.

How will taking a most of a year from March 897 to 'train with the new toys' get 50,000 Charisian soldiers to the Gulf of Dohlar by fall, when there were 30,000 in the occupation garrison at most?

Using Corisandans or the garrison is a rather old pet thread here, whether its Windshare or Gahrvai etc, though I suspect new ICA regiments, brigades and divisions already training hard would have less to unlearn and be ready sooner, than an internal police force less an army clearly smaller than the 30,000 man occupation garrison.

Sending them to Maikelberg to be integrated with all the other trainees is only building the empire, not special preferential attention that would only irritate the rest of the empire, to say nothing of the army.

If it's another ~50,000 troops you want to invade Dohlar with, we have the 50,000+ troops that left Chisholm at the end of September 896 and have yet to be heard from though they should have easily reached SC in February, speculation you apparently missed has put them near Silkiah, to handle the task hinted in the second snippet, ie taking the canal.

After that they might be in an excellent position to do far more to make Dohlar's situation untenable.

Simply capturing the lightly held offshore islands [given the local dominance of the RDN, proper fortifications were too expensive for cash strapped Rahnyld IV] would provide a base for said 50,000+ men who being far better armed would require far larger Dohlaran forces on the mainland all along the coast, ie pulling them away from the border with the republic where DE and EHM might be more than a little active.

Even a much smaller force of a brigade or two could accomplish much the same, depending on the propaganda or leaks that tripled or quadrupled its size.

The difficulties Desnar faces in the aftermath of the destruction of their army of justice have been discussed in detail in other threads, especially by yours truly; again we're dealing with amphibious raids against Dohlar here.

I don't believe such raids will bring Dohlar to its knees, but they will be a continuing and growing nuisance, until a larger invasion force can be arranged, though if the afford-said full 50,000+ man force were used [some might be needed to garrison Silkiah until relieved by the SRA] while DE and EHM crossed the border, the effect of almost 200,000 alliance troops invading Dohlar might get somebody there to sue for terms rather soon.

The various aspects of losing Dohlar has also been treated in many another thread here, though by then the Go4 may feel that the IHA's GHoGatA being over ten times the RDA's military contribution, is more pertinent to their survival, thus deserving of more of their current attention.

In fact, given all that might be going on by then, the news of Dohlar surrendering may get lost or barely mentioned in their conferences when larger armies closer to Zion are being destroyed seemingly every 5day.

L


[quote="Deqnius"]Hi, lyonheart

My first comment. Oh, well.
So. I thing your read of the situation is not quite right. Oh, up to the end of LaMA it is but that is. Sharpfield realy doesn't hace the power to do much at the moment. However if my calculations of the time is somewhat correct in early summer the ocean ironclads will join him, probably a decent amount of armored galeons too. Considering that Thirsk have nothing to put agains them, and cant build such ships ( money for one, resourses needed for the land battles, lack of the tech, time required to develop, build ...), Charis won't need too many of them to trash him. And they are not stupid enough to let him have the time to prepare. So by the early autumn at most Dohlar's fleet will be history.
That means that Charis gets full domination of the Gulf.
Meaning with them pesky armies in the way the church get cut off from Desnair and South Harchong by water. No trade, and everything will have to be carried by land. Thats money, weapons. artilery, food . You think of blocking the canal in Silkah? Man, at this point I'll go for a full invasion of Dohlar. Forget raids.
Consider - Charis have about 50k soldiers in Corisande. The local army will have most of an year to integrate nad train with the new toys. And in that time they will have all the time they need to outfit it. Having in mind the populaion mood in Corisande after the wedding, I'm fairly confident that Charis will be able to include a nice amount of them for a little adventure.
And as we know Dohlar is rushing every new weapon to the battle lines in an efford to hold the allys. And as new republic division enter the fight, the ... dificulties Desnair will face with making new weapons and sending new model troops to the frons, and the lag South Harchong will face with his water comunicals disrupted be Sharpfield even now... Well, let say that I dont belive that Dohlar will have nearly enough well equiped fighting force, nor the cover to do much if Caleb desides to land the above army whereever he pleases when Thirsk is out of the picture. And then you dont even want to consider what that will mean to the Temple economicly and military.[/quote]

Hi Dwileye13,

Sending ironclads or a combined army-navy team up the Sabana river to close the Langhorne canal has been posited before, but its over 800 miles from the Gulf of Dohlar, and even at 300 miles upstream per day, the CoGA ought to be able to get enough warning to blow the locks at least in front of the ironclads, to slow them down significantly.

Unfortunately we don't know how long ICA engineers will take to repair or replace them.

Much or most of the IHA's armies may already be destroyed by then, but cutting their supplies has been a theme of mine for a couple month's, IIRC.

If Clyntahn does order the inquisition in Dohlar to start arresting all the leaders, because he can't send another army, it could be the quick end of the inquisition in Dohlar, since there aren't that many of them, which could have interesting possibilities down the road.

L

dwileye13 wrote:In any event, Dohlar is screwed but I think the real last turn will be when ICN cuts off any traffic in the Gulf of Dohlar, takes Riverboats up and trashes the Langhorne Canal, controls the bay of Bess and the Salthar canal, then where will the hungry 1.2 million Harchong contingent go? If they can't be fed, the Army will go where there is something to eat and take what they want. Logistics - they will go to the Temple lands or to Dohlar. The battlefields they have in front of them are scraped bare from another hardship winter.

I have said it before, Dohlar has more to worry about than the Charisians and Siddermarkians. If Clyntahn is disappointed in Dohlar (perhaps because their Navy has surrendered or is at the bottom of the sea, He could order the attack himself. He is crazy after all.

Hi SYED,

While Gorath Bay may have the largest concentration of Dohlaran industry, it depends by what standard as to how important it is to the Go4's total war effort.

Regarding Thirsk's sailing ships avoiding the ironclads, steam isn't limited by the whims of the wind, while a blockade of Gorath Bay wouldn't take that many ships, we know they're in the process of converting or building another 27 IIRC, I wouldn't be surprised if a dozen or more went through the Silkiah canal fairly soon.

Remember even if the RDN avoids the ironclads somehow to engage Sharpfield's fleet, they are the ICN; the RDN may know some are armored and be leery of engaging any until they know they aren't.

The RAF was able to bluff the formidable FW-190 by the close similarity between the Mk-9 and Mk-5 Spitfire's for some month's, I expect the reputation of the Rottweilers will only grow in the telling, so the effect on the RDN's morale could be very interesting.

We may have a final grand naval battle of sail using explosive shells, that may make it rather abrupt, before steam obliterates the last of them when the KH VII's make their appearance.

L

SYED wrote:If the navy can mess with the langhorne canal, then alot of the supplies wont reach the harchong forces or the northern frontline.
How much of dohlaran industry is in gorath bay? It is where they kept the navy till it was large enough to fight.

while the iron clads are near immune to the present canoms, what if thirsk ships avoid them, and simply attacj those ships it can harm. with out support ironclads become vulnerable due to fuel issues.

Hi Don,

You're quite right Dohlar's population is ~83 million, but even with relatively high rates of rifle production etc, there will be far too few to suddenly provide for all the troops needed to replace Ahlverez's, let alone guard it's too long coast, when even sailing ships can travel 2-300 miles per day while troops can only march 40 at best.

Given Dohlar bordered both the republic and Desnar, a poor cash strapped king would have been compelled to economize; so relying on his navy's superiority for coastal defense, however overconfident is more likely.

Remember Mussolini did it to.

L

n7axw wrote:**quote="lyonheart"**Hi SYED,

Kudos.

You point of how exposed Dohlar is to amphibious raids is quite accurate NTM important yet overlooked.

Sharpfield hasn't brought that many marines with him, though amphibious raids can certainly multiply the ones he can spare from Claw Island.

We have no hard current figures, the last we had were that Thirsk had around 78-80 odd when those then under construction were finished, besides unnumbered schooners.

Since then Thirsk has added some screw propelled galleys, yet again we have no numbers, nor projection of what they will be when combat is joined.

If the report that Sharpfield's fleet is armored got out, Thirsk may be unwilling to engage in full battle until he gets some ironclads too, which may tick off Clyntahn, but will be supported by Duchairn and Magwair.

We don't know when the Silkiah canal will be taken, but Sharpfield won't get the latest ICA weapons etc until it is.

Unless the Marine TO&E has been changed since Hanth was complaining about not having mortars, the marines may still be without them, which will have a considerable limit on the raids.

The economic, psychological and political effects of such raids should put more pressure on Dohlar to consider ways to appease the alliance.

Plus, we don't know how many fresh ironclads there are which could have all sorts of permutations in terms of the Gulf of Dohlar etc.

L

SYED wrote:I just figured something out. I always immagined that dohlar would have two campaign, keepingthe republic at bay and dealing with the navy. The thing is almost all the army is being rushed to the land border, so who will man the coastal defences. It is not like the republic campaig was planned, they conscripted for the navy, but how much of the army is new.
We know there was a small supply issue to begin with, all rifles were sent in land. focus had been on arming ships, then arming the army. now charis ships are coming, can they ammass the numbers to hold them off, especially as iron clads are coming.
how big is the navy of god?

**quote**

Actually, there is no reason to assume that Dohlar is that badly undermanned. IIRC, its population is around 80,000,000. They certainly can raise the warm bodies needed for their own defense. For that matter,there is no reason to think that the coastal defenses were ever undermanned. And their leadership is quite good. For Dohlar the issue will be dealing with Charis' superior firepower and the iron clads produced by a superior industrial capability and tech.

Don

Hi PeterZ,

Maybe you're right, but given how few mortars there were being produced when the SoS struck the republic, ie only 150 in all of Charis for the arms convoy, I strongly doubt the Corisande garrison was the ICA's top priority given how closely OWL and everybody were monitoring things there.

Getting the ICA up to speed, NTM it was BGV's idea, leads me to think Maikelberg had first call on all production, just to get the training and doctrine down.

Again since the TO&E provides a mortar for almost every 90 soldiers in a battalion, the ICA if up to 450,000 combat troops requires 5,000 just for itself before we get into how many the SRA needs.

Then again, since DE had twice that ratio, the ICA could need 10,000 itself.

L

PeterZ wrote:Which marines are going to the Gulf of Dohlar? If we are talking about the ~30,000 in Corisande, they might well have mortars. These are the guys stationed to run herd on Corisande and would need almost all the new ICA toys. They might not have the internal logistics capabilities of the ICA, but they might have most of their infantry toys.

I doubt the marines currently with Sharpfield will have those toys, but I am sure the ones arriving with the KH VIIs from Corisande will.

lyonheart wrote:Hi SYED,

Kudos.

You point of how exposed Dohlar is to amphibious raids is quite accurate NTM important yet overlooked.

Sharpfield hasn't brought that many marines with him, though amphibious raids can certainly multiply the ones he can spare from Claw Island.

We have no hard current figures, the last we had were that Thirsk had around 78-80 odd when those then under construction were finished, besides unnumbered schooners.

Since then Thirsk has added some screw propelled galleys, yet again we have no numbers, nor projection of what they will be when combat is joined.

If the report that Sharpfield's fleet is armored got out, Thirsk may be unwilling to engage in full battle until he gets some ironclads too, which may tick off Clyntahn, but will be supported by Duchairn and Magwair.

We don't know when the Silkiah canal will be taken, but Sharpfield won't get the latest ICA weapons etc until it is.

Unless the Marine TO&E has been changed since Hanth was complaining about not having mortars, the marines may still be without them, which will have a considerable limit on the raids.

The economic, psychological and political effects of such raids should put more pressure on Dohlar to consider ways to appease the alliance.

Plus, we don't know how many fresh ironclads there are which could have all sorts of permutations in terms of the Gulf of Dohlar etc.

L

Hi Deqnius,

Kudos for a far more cogent post.

Nits: Rock Point isn't in command of the fleet, Admiral Sharpfield, a Chisholmian ignorant of the inner circle is.

2) From the textev of the battery commander on Claw Island, Thirsk has screw galleys, whose frontal armor has left rust marks from so much training at sea.

How many steam ironclads will it take to destroy Thirsk's fleet?

6? 8? 12?

Or will he be so intimidated he stays in Gorath Bay?

L

Deqnius wrote:Unlikly. Messing with Langhorn canal will be nearly impossible now that the Temple knows to blow the locks when it has to.
As to the industry of Dohlar, building a fleet that size and maitaining it will require no small production abase. It was mensioned in one in the previos books that the church was shifting weapon production from navy to army. So a lot of the army supply industry will be near the cost.
Next, fighting a sea battle is not the same as fighting a land one. It was also explained during the attack of Ithria.If your enemy attacks he will chose the time so the wind and the current will be in his favor. So I don't believe Thirsk galleons will be able maneur around ironclads and armored galleons to get to whats behind them. Not without paying one hell of a price, that will make them less than able to handle the normal galleons that should be positioned and aligned behing them. Screw galleys would be another thing, however Thirsk doesnt have nearly enough of them and I dont see him geting the resourses to build them. Not sinse it's known that they are not ships he can bring in blue water fight. Still, even they cant match ironclads speed and maneurability.
If you mean that Thirsk can disperse his fleet to numerous direction and fight that kind of battle, it will be even worse. Rock Point has SNARKS and can simply hunt them down before asaulting the gorath harbour. Ships need ports - food, supplys and more. Spreading the fleet will be an invitation to be quickly chewed in little bites.

Well, Lyonheart, the convoy was primarily sent to arm the Siddermarkians. I suspect those 150 mortars are in excess of ICA needs. If the ICA mortars had already been sent to Chisholm, there might well be very few to send with the convoy. All that is indeed supposition until HFQ.

What isn't supposition is that Charis will have had time to ramp up production by the time the KH VIIs sail for Corisande. Ramp up production not only from Delthak, but from all the steel works of Charis. I am sure whatever force gets sent to Dohlar will have plenty of infantry toys and a cadre to train that force in their use.

I had a thought recently. Suppose Koryn Gahrvai takes his Corisandian infatry to Dohlar. They decide to keep Windshare at home. Then the Chisholm aristos show signs of becoming restless and Windshare comes to the rescue. I recall speculation that Corisande and Zebediah would save Sharley's bacon in Chisholm. It would be nice if the dashing Windshare would be a key instrument of that salvation.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Maybe you're right, but given how few mortars there were being produced when the SoS struck the republic, ie only 150 in all of Charis for the arms convoy, I strongly doubt the Corisande garrison was the ICA's top priority given how closely OWL and everybody were monitoring things there.

Getting the ICA up to speed, NTM it was BGV's idea, leads me to think Maikelberg had first call on all production, just to get the training and doctrine down.

Again since the TO&E provides a mortar for almost every 90 soldiers in a battalion, the ICA if up to 450,000 combat troops requires 5,000 just for itself before we get into how many the SRA needs.

Then again, since DE had twice that ratio, the ICA could need 10,000 itself.

L

Well, sorry for the bas spelling. So, Sharpfield indeed is in charge of the fleet at the moment. However I think I said that an attack of Thirsk fleet should happen lake summer of soon after. Rock Point may not be there at the moment but I believe he will come with the ironclads, the armored galleons he can get be that time and whatever
else he can get. This probably will be the last big naval battle for quite same time and given the importance of the gulf, I don't think he will take any chances and ignore the advantage of the SNARKS and coms. How many? I think anything above 12 ,both ironclads and armored galleons will be enough. Probably around 20 if he can get them at the time.
Screw galleys with rust - good. However salt water is the same in the open ocean and at the cost. Galleys were usually coastal ships. Small galleys more so and these were specifically designed to be small. There were a nice discussion on the topic in one of the first books I think.
Sharpfield doen't have the marines to do a lot more than holding the islands and pouncing on some sea towns in the western gulf after the navy drives away the Dohlar fleet.
Silkiah canal is indeed very important and should be closed , however that alone will not cut off the southern kingdoms. It will be difficult but the Temple can go around a few blocks be roads of through the cost.
The integration of the army of Corisande should have begun as soon as princedom became part of the empire. And the training of the army doesn't realy have to happen in Crisholm. There is big enough charisian garrison to train the corisandians and more than half a year to do so. Training the officers would be a little more tricky but not so much. So Charis can have the numbers there to land a significant force in Dohlar sometime in the autumn. And it doesn't have to occupy the kingdom. Burn the capital, the big coastal towns involved in the Navy creation, then move inland and trash anything remotely of use for the military or transportation - mines, foundries, bridges, canals, supply depots ... Considering the production numbers discussed in LaMA Dohlar should not be able to make more than 50 to 70K riffles and the corresponding artillery. And they will be needed badly north. Even if they don't send them all there, they still will be too few to cover the kingdom. And if the Temple sends the army of harchong south, they still need to travel vast distance to get there and if the charisians don't like the odds, they can simply get on their transports and sail to make trouble somewhere else.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Deqnius,

Kudos for a far more cogent post.

Nits: Rock Point isn't in command of the fleet, Admiral Sharpfield, a Chisholmian ignorant of the inner circle is.

2) From the textev of the battery commander on Claw Island, Thirsk has screw galleys, whose frontal armor has left rust marks from so much training at sea.

How many steam ironclads will it take to destroy Thirsk's fleet?

6? 8? 12?

Or will he be so intimidated he stays in Gorath Bay?

L

Deqnius wrote:Unlikly. Messing with Langhorn canal will be nearly impossible now that the Temple knows to blow the locks when it has to.
As to the industry of Dohlar, building a fleet that size and maitaining it will require no small production abase. It was mensioned in one in the previos books that the church was shifting weapon production from navy to army. So a lot of the army supply industry will be near the cost.
Next, fighting a sea battle is not the same as fighting a land one. It was also explained during the attack of Ithria.If your enemy attacks he will chose the time so the wind and the current will be in his favor. So I don't believe Thirsk galleons will be able maneur around ironclads and armored galleons to get to whats behind them. Not without paying one hell of a price, that will make them less than able to handle the normal galleons that should be positioned and aligned behing them. Screw galleys would be another thing, however Thirsk doesnt have nearly enough of them and I dont see him geting the resourses to build them. Not sinse it's known that they are not ships he can bring in blue water fight. Still, even they cant match ironclads speed and maneurability.
If you mean that Thirsk can disperse his fleet to numerous direction and fight that kind of battle, it will be even worse. Rock Point has SNARKS and can simply hunt them down before asaulting the gorath harbour. Ships need ports - food, supplys and more. Spreading the fleet will be an invitation to be quickly chewed in little bites.

PeterZ wrote:Well, Lyonheart, the convoy was primarily sent to arm the Siddermarkians. I suspect those 150 mortars are in excess of ICA needs. If the ICA mortars had already been sent to Chisholm, there might well be very few to send with the convoy. All that is indeed supposition until HFQ.

What isn't supposition is that Charis will have had time to ramp up production by the time the KH VIIs sail for Corisande. Ramp up production not only from Delthak, but from all the steel works of Charis. I am sure whatever force gets sent to Dohlar will have plenty of infantry toys and a cadre to train that force in their use.

I had a thought recently. Suppose Koryn Gahrvai takes his Corisandian infatry to Dohlar. They decide to keep Windshare at home. Then the Chisholm aristos show signs of becoming restless and Windshare comes to the rescue. I recall speculation that Corisande and Zebediah would save Sharley's bacon in Chisholm. It would be nice if the dashing Windshare would be a key instrument of that salvation.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Maybe you're right, but given how few mortars there were being produced when the SoS struck the republic, ie only 150 in all of Charis for the arms convoy, I strongly doubt the Corisande garrison was the ICA's top priority given how closely OWL and everybody were monitoring things there.

Getting the ICA up to speed, NTM it was BGV's idea, leads me to think Maikelberg had first call on all production, just to get the training and doctrine down.

Again since the TO&E provides a mortar for almost every 90 soldiers in a battalion, the ICA if up to 450,000 combat troops requires 5,000 just for itself before we get into how many the SRA needs.

Then again, since DE had twice that ratio, the ICA could need 10,000 itself.

L

I'm wore concerned about Sharley's "idiot aristocracy" at the moment than I am Corisande. Chisholm probably shouldn't be drawn down further. Corisande still bears watching as Daivyn and Irys settle in. Still, Corisande has a fairly large pool of vets who could be recruited and sent to Chisholm's training facility without diminishing the already lean forces on hand.

Don