Military Speculations

Hi Thucydides,

No one wants to see a repeat of the first winter of the Korean war, especially any children of my father.

However, it's already March and the IHA is some 3000 miles from BGV, so it could be June by the time they meet, or at least May so winter may be the least of the hazards they face.

May may more mud, which would trouble the IHA assault divisions trying to cross the no man's land, NTM the IHA artillery, what there is of it trying to set up while well in range of ICA mortars and artillery, since theirs out-range the Go4's, a double++ ungood situation.

I strongly doubt the IHA will remain whole, when armies must be sent south to replace the AoS, reinforce Kaitswyrth, besides Wyrshym if he's still there since Symkyn has far more rifles NTM a great deal more artillery and mortars plus more cavalry or at least more in better condition; if almost 8,000 horses were captured, how many more were killed?

Even if split into 4 similar sized armies of 400K each, they each would require over 2200 tons of supplies per day [600 tons for the men, 1500 tons for 100,000 horses etc], quite a bit away from canals.

I mentioned previously how I think Symkyns will destroy Kaitswyrth fairly quickly [he needs to win his battle honors too] before anyone can reinforce him since even overland the IHA would take over a month to get to Aivahstyn, time enough for Earl High Mount [EHM?] to reach the Daivyn, NTM some ironclads while some scout snipers were cutting the Fairmyn river supply line.

Again as I've projected, the opportunity for the ironclads to destroy the majority of the IHA's 'army group center' while it's stuck in barges on the Daivyn seems practically unique.

After the IHA's 'AGC' is destroyed Symkyn could then go north to help BGV deal with his IHA [army group north?] by cutting the Langhorne canal when its too far away to stop him.

By then BGV might be close enough to Spinefish Bay that a ten day trip by ship could get him to Port Home, or even all the way up the Zion river, with all sorts of very interesting results.

Would his arrival trigger Duchairn's coup?

Meanwhile Silkiah and Dohlar await; Ahlverez gets away while DE avoids the RDA's fortifications to cut the canals supplying them and forcing them to retreat without suffering heavy casualties.

By the time EHM gets back into the theater from the Daivyn, any IHA army trying to move along the coast of the Bay of Bess may be discovering their supplies are not what they're supposed to be, thanks to raiding ICN schooners.

Meanwhile from a combination of thrusts from the Bay of Jahras etc, the Silkiah canal is taken with the locks effectively intact so the ironclads can pass through, besides cutting Sharpfield's fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar supply time from Tellesburg at least in half.

DE might be heading for Dairnyth ahead of the IHA rather than invading Dohlar directly, which might give Dohlar time to think about making peace before it gets hammered by the republic.

From the June 9th RFC interview at BayCon, it does appear a cold war will develop for about 20 years that will be covered in the next two books, before the next conflict which will be 3-4 books, at least that's what RFC thinks it will take now.

We shall see, and snippet hunger is increasing to dangerous levels...

L


[quote="Thucydides"]Advancing in winter in mountainous terrain against a million man army...

Anyone thinking "Chosin Reservoir" or "Changjin Lake Campaign"?[/quote]

lyonheart wrote:Hi Thucydides,

No one wants to see a repeat of the first winter of the Korean war, especially any children of my father.

However, it's already March and the IHA is some 3000 miles from BGV, so it could be June by the time they meet, or at least May so winter may be the least of the hazards they face.

May may more mud, which would trouble the IHA assault divisions trying to cross the no man's land, NTM the IHA artillery, what there is of it trying to set up while well in range of ICA mortars and artillery, since theirs out-range the Go4's, a double++ ungood situation.

I strongly doubt the IHA will remain whole, when armies must be sent south to replace the AoS, reinforce Kaitswyrth, besides Wyrshym if he's still there since Symkyn has far more rifles NTM a great deal more artillery and mortars plus more cavalry or at least more in better condition; if almost 8,000 horses were captured, how many more were killed?

Even if split into 4 similar sized armies of 400K each, they each would require over 2200 tons of supplies per day [600 tons for the men, 1500 tons for 100,000 horses etc], quite a bit away from canals.

I mentioned previously how I think Symkyns will destroy Kaitswyrth fairly quickly [he needs to win his battle honors too] before anyone can reinforce him since even overland the IHA would take over a month to get to Aivahstyn, time enough for Earl High Mount [EHM?] to reach the Daivyn, NTM some ironclads while some scout snipers were cutting the Fairmyn river supply line.

Again as I've projected, the opportunity for the ironclads to destroy the majority of the IHA's 'army group center' while it's stuck in barges on the Daivyn seems practically unique.

After the IHA's 'AGC' is destroyed Symkyn could then go north to help BGV deal with his IHA [army group north?] by cutting the Langhorne canal when its too far away to stop him.

By then BGV might be close enough to Spinefish Bay that a ten day trip by ship could get him to Port Home, or even all the way up the Zion river, with all sorts of very interesting results.

Would his arrival trigger Duchairn's coup?

Meanwhile Silkiah and Dohlar await; Ahlverez gets away while DE avoids the RDA's fortifications to cut the canals supplying them and forcing them to retreat without suffering heavy casualties.

By the time EHM gets back into the theater from the Daivyn, any IHA army trying to move along the coast of the Bay of Bess may be discovering their supplies are not what they're supposed to be, thanks to raiding ICN schooners.

Meanwhile from a combination of thrusts from the Bay of Jahras etc, the Silkiah canal is taken with the locks effectively intact so the ironclads can pass through, besides cutting Sharpfield's fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar supply time from Tellesburg at least in half.

DE might be heading for Dairnyth ahead of the IHA rather than invading Dohlar directly, which might give Dohlar time to think about making peace before it gets hammered by the republic.

From the June 9th RFC interview at BayCon, it does appear a cold war will develop for about 20 years that will be covered in the next two books, before the next conflict which will be 3-4 books, at least that's what RFC thinks it will take now.

We shall see, and snippet hunger is increasing to dangerous levels...

L

Thucydides wrote:Advancing in winter in mountainous terrain against a million man army...

Anyone thinking "Chosin Reservoir" or "Changjin Lake Campaign"?

I don't agree with the idea of a cold war. What you do is overrun Zion, possibly with an invasion from the sea, replace the clique currently in control with a rational regime willing to play nice.

Don

dan92677 wrote:

larrywiding wrote:Personally, snip

Of course, that could cause problems as well, 10s of thousands of PoWs needing to be fed and housed? snip

Wouldn't that be multiple 100,000's ???

Possibly, though I would see 10's of thousands from a battle/campaign, 100's across the whole front. If a large formation breaks and runs, who's going to be able to round them up and capture them?

The COGA army in the North reminds me of Napoleon and his march on Moscow. Overextended supply lines, horrible weather and a retreat that will have limited survivors. Those that survive will earn the wrath of Clyntan.

RFC likes historical context in his books and I see the action in the South similar to Wellington in Spain. There is no navy to disrupt whatever Charis decides to do and they can land troops at will.

I also see Charis continuing to do their version of the Marshall plan in rebuilding allies and former enemies. The framers in Charis will be encouraged to continue expanding their crops to feed the newer nations allied to the EoC.

Assaults on fortified positions are always possible. You just need to be smart about it, and have the proper tools. Mortars, grenades, light and portable field artillery to act as upfront direct-fire infantry guns would be helpful too. The ICA has all of these (I'm not as certain about the light, portable field artillery bit, but if you give the guys at the front the idea then I'm certain they'll make their own). I'm not saying this is the best option, an indirect approach to an objective is most often the safest and best, although not the quickest. But the ICA is, as of the end of LAMA, equipped with these sorts of weapons that are useful in small unit combined operations with the purpose of infiltrating enemy positions in preparation for (or in lieu of) major frontal assaults. Additionally, low-level command authority needs to have the initiative and confidence in themselves in order to successfully execute infiltration-style assaults.

n7axw wrote:...I don't agree with the idea of a cold war. What you do is overrun Zion, possibly with an invasion from the sea, replace the clique currently in control with a rational regime willing to play nice.

Don

How do you stimulate progress then?

jgnfld wrote:

n7axw wrote:...I don't agree with the idea of a cold war. What you do is overrun Zion, possibly with an invasion from the sea, replace the clique currently in control with a rational regime willing to play nice.

Don

How do you stimulate progress then?

I think progress once unleashed will stimulate itself. Not all of it will be military, but the economic and industrial support structure upon which military depends will.expand hugely as people's standard of living improves.

War is horribly wasteful, even cold war because of the resourses which must be committed to military use. That is not to say that a pressurized situation doesn't stimulate r&d and those areas of industry directly related to the military. But the sort of progress that the presence of peace and widespread commercial activity can generate is much broader and ultimately more beneficial to society.

Don

Cold war is only preferable if the OBS is still active or potentially able to be activated and directed by the Sleepers. If those two variable can be negated without destroying the Inner Circle's reputation, then I agree with your assertion. I just don't believe progress can be unleashed with an active OBS and Sleepers waiting their preset alarm. I also don't think the Inner Circle knows enough about either to assume a direct military conquest of the Temple and Zion wouldn't activate the OBS and/or awaken the Sleepers right now.

A cold war is preferable than that outcome.

n7axw wrote:
I think progress once unleashed will stimulate itself. Not all of it will be military, but the economic and industrial support structure upon which military depends will.expand hugely as people's standard of living improves.

War is horribly wasteful, even cold war because of the resourses which must be committed to military use. That is not to say that a pressurized situation doesn't stimulate r&d and those areas of industry directly related to the military. But the sort of progress that the presence of peace and widespread commercial activity can generate is much broader and ultimately more beneficial to society.

Don

n7axw wrote:I think progress once unleashed will stimulate itself. Not all of it will be military, ...

Historically, that hasn't really been the case. In peacetime, economics drives progress, and "good enough" is usually more economic than "cutting edge"

n7axw wrote:War is horribly wasteful, even cold war because of the resourses which must be committed to military use. ...

If it weren't for the goal of confronting and defeating the Gbaba, but Safehold most needs military development and as fast as possible. Safehold doesn't necessarily need a "Cold War" but it definitely needs an "Arms Race" that will take them to Federation level military technology and beyond.

I guess I am sort of a direct kind of guy. The power of the inquisition needs to be broken. And EOC needs to know what is really under the temple. Those are both war aims even if they are not formally stated. In addition, purging the church of the vicarage's corruption is not accomplished if the present regime in Zion is left in place which is what a cold war would imply.

As for OBS, it is probably shut down from the basement of the temple. And if it is possible to get at the sleepers, they need to be dealt with before they wake up if at all possible. Leaving them to wake up on their own is a very dangerous idea.

And Weird Harold, there is truth to what you are saying, but I don't think it is completely true. Military and civilian research can feed off one another. Where military research has most outstandlingly contributed to the civilian sector has been in the medical field. Computer research has also been more cutting edge on the military side. I remember how putting a man on the noon gave us hand calculators and much more. However here on earth, steam was developed for economically driven reasons on the civilian side. So also was the internal combustion engine, the air plane and much more. In fact, the need for efficiency to drive costs down to enhance profit has probably been the biggest driver of research overall.

As for the confronting the Gbabba, research is not going to be all that is needed. Safehold is also going to need to industrialize, not just in Charis, but overall. Without that industrial support structure in place, no amount of research in the world can support the military support structure that is going to be needed for that mission. For that to happen, civilian commerce and trade is going to have to take off. Improving people's living standards and making their lives better will be the primary economic driver. Then eventually there must be political unity of the whole planet to get everybody behind the task.

None of this will come easy or quick. I would estimate that several centuries will be needed for the process to be far enough along to seriously contemplate going looking for the Gbabba or even to defend Safehold if the Gbabba should happen by. That should be ok since what we conjecture about the Gbabba is that they are not expansionist, but react when they feel their own turf is either invaded or threatened. So the time needed is probably there.

Don