Logic behind splitting Lacoon?

n7axw wrote:
Yep. Been a ham over 35 years now. I'll admit to being proud of it!

Don

KD70GB myself. I did let it expire though when I quit flying RC airplanes.

Hutch wrote:

phillies wrote:
(Hutch:)"At minimum, it will divert ISLN units all over the map in (probably) futile efforts to chase the raiders down."

Then there will be the groups that do successfully chase down the raiders, send a dispatch boat reporting that they have done so, and then cease to transmit signals ever again.

Indeed.

That devilish thought behind, commerce raiders are not interested in engaging fleet units--their mission is to hit the commercial interests and any engagement with SLN ships cost time and missiles they'd better use on SL frieghters.

I'm strictly an amateur strategist so I'm probably mistaken but I thought Commerce Raiding campaigns usually have two objectives.

1: To disrupt the enemy economy and supply lines plus increase political pressure at home on the target power to end the conflict in the raider's favor.

2: To force the target power to divert warships to escort their merchant vessels and hunt down the raiders or both.

If I'm right than wouldn't destroying the pursuing warships help objective 2 by decreasing the number of warships the League navy has available? Usually, based on my understanding, raider vessels are usually less armored or more lightly armed than warships, or out numbered badly enough that engaging warships is a serious risk but with the GA Tech edges it seems like the risk of a raider force being damaged or destroyed in an engagement with a SL pursuit force would be very low. I know in sheer numbers the ships the SL loses in such engagements probably wouldn't weaken it that badly but it seems like decreasing the number of hulls, and trained personal the League has available, even a little, would benefit the GA more than saving the missiles for GA Freighters would.

Roguevictory wrote:

Hutch wrote:
Indeed.

That devilish thought behind, commerce raiders are not interested in engaging fleet units--their mission is to hit the commercial interests and any engagement with SLN ships cost time and missiles they'd better use on SL frieghters.

I'm strictly an amateur strategist so I'm probably mistaken but I thought Commerce Raiding campaigns usually have two objectives.

1: To disrupt the enemy economy and supply lines plus increase political pressure at home on the target power to end the conflict in the raider's favor.

2: To force the target power to divert warships to escort their merchant vessels and hunt down the raiders or both.

If I'm right than wouldn't destroying the pursuing warships help objective 2 by decreasing the number of warships the League navy has available? Usually, based on my understanding, raider vessels are usually less armored or more lightly armed than warships, or out numbered badly enough that engaging warships is a serious risk but with the GA Tech edges it seems like the risk of a raider force being damaged or destroyed in an engagement with a SL pursuit force would be very low. I know in sheer numbers the ships the SL loses in such engagements probably wouldn't weaken it that badly but it seems like decreasing the number of hulls, and trained personal the League has available, even a little, would benefit the GA more than saving the missiles for GA Freighters would.

Roguevictory, no disputing your points on the purpose of Commerce Raiding, that's almost like quoting the manual.

And if you noted from my hypothetical example, that's just what the GA unit was doing.

I don't argue that the GA units can take out many times their tonnage with serious risk, but I'd be doubtful that their orders tell them to do this, except when they have no other options, for two reasons:

(1). If these are light units, they have a limited supply of missiles, and once they are gone, they will need to either return home or to a central re-arming point. One engagement with, say, a division of SD's will probably end OK with my hypothetical group, but not leave them many missiles left. So to extend their primary mission, Commerce raiding, they will try to avoid combat.

(2). Remember, the GA end goal is a fractured SL into smaller states, but to not give those states a reason to build fleets the size of the GA due to fear/revenge. Killing multiple SLN ships in multiple systems does not further that goal.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

Hutch wrote:
(2). Remember, the GA end goal is a fractured SL into smaller states, but to not give those states a reason to build fleets the size of the GA due to fear/revenge. Killing multiple SLN ships in multiple systems does not further that goal.

IMHO as always. YMMV.

Actually, I don't see how that's a the GA goal at all.

The Mesan Alignment (which, we the reader know much more about than any of the characters outside of the Zilwikis and Cachats of the Honorverse) has that goal, but not the GA.

The GA seems to want to eliminate the threat of the SL's meddling and attempts to subjugate independent star systems. All of the current mess started because of the Solly's picking a fight with Manticore (how the Solly's were manipulated into acting that way is beside the point). I do not argue that the fall of the SL isn't the most likely result of the war with the GA (just about inevitable, to be perfectly honest) but I don't see where they are intentionally setting out to topple it.

jtg452 wrote:I do not argue that the fall of the SL isn't the most likely result of the war with the GA (just about inevitable, to be perfectly honest) but I don't see where they are intentionally setting out to topple it.

Do you recall Honor's grand strategy exposition from a few books back?

Hi Hutch,

Excellent points as usual.

I suspect that Case Lacoon was quietly researched over decades by visiting RMN ships during the 18th and 19th centuries, regarding the time for the RMN to reach their wormhole bridge stations, the nearest SLN bases and stations and their reaction times, as well as the communication lag between them and Terra.

I find the fact that no RMN officer has ever doubted or at least suggested that Lacoon couldn't be done indicates all the reconnaissance indicated high confidence it would work, probably because the SL and SLN never considered anyone ever daring to do such a thing to the SL.

So the RMN gets away with Lacoon 1 because of sheer surprise, and leaves before the SLN can react [6-8 weeks?], so the SLN then believes the threat is over, so no TG's need be sent upsetting all prior planning with not enough ships in the first place; so things are back to normal for the SLN, the watchdog in effect can go back to sleep.

Then Lacoon 2 a month or 6-7 weeks latter almost totally surprises them again.

"They're-r-ba-ack!" might sum up the situation.

It's not quite a total surprise, but close to it since some in the SLN will think the RMN slunk away before the SLN caught them, so the first affront would never ever be repeated again in their mind, only the neo-barbs have shown up again, even bolder than before.

There are going to be some more very surprised SLN CO's, if they haven't got word of Zunker or Saltash [26 days to Sol via Mesa-Visigoth], though the SKM's advance waring isn't all that great if Zavala with no db returned directly to Montana, even with the freed freighters going directly to Lynx, however if he detached a DD to Lynx with his report, Manticore could have gotten it ~15 days sooner.

OTOH, once Manticore gets the news disseminating to the rest of the RMN is far faster thanks to the internal communications the wormhole bridges provide as you pointed out.

We need a new wormhole bridge map, ART definitely should have had one, is there one in the works now?

L

Hutch wrote:

n7axw wrote: Hi Hutch,

Your reasoning seems sound here, but I suspect that due to sheer distance, a substantial portion of the SLN won't have tumbled to what is going on, may not have even heard of Spindle or 2nd Manticore let alone understand the implications. That will make their resonse lethargic and slow to realize how things have changed.

Don

Howdy Don;

You bring up an excellent point. Manticore, despite being hundreds of light years from the Core, actually have the 'inner lines of communication' that military folks have sought for thousands of years. The domination of the wormholes allows for much faster reporting/reaction to events than the Centralized ISLN, where the reports need to go to Sol System and then disseminate outward.

Still, we know that word of New Tuscany is pretty much out to everybody and at least some knowledge of Spindle (wherever the ISLN Command chose to told their commanders) and presumably (given it was several weeks old as of the end of A Rising Thuinder) Second Manticore should at least be known to most of the central Core Worlds.

But the lack of relatively quick communication, combined with the flexibility learned in war by the GA commanders, presents an (IMHO) insurmountable challenge, even to FF or BF commanders that have more than three brain cells to rub together.

We shall see...eventually.


PS--is n7axw your Ham Radio call sign? I'm not a ham, but a good friend of mine is (w1aim).

Hi Don,

I don't think general commerce raiding most of the SL is that high a priority of the GA yet.

They don't need to irritate anyone they can avoid, who might be rather friendly in the first place, when a quarter of the SL councilmen voted with Beowulf.

Taking all those freighters that show up at the wormholes is a no brainer, but it will require a lot more manpower than Sag-C's etc have, so some sort of reinforcement bringing the crews needed will have been part of the updated planning for Lacoon 2.

Aside: We have yet to see any CL's as big as the Roland, will we see some soon?

The SLN CL's aren't much larger than their DD's, so whose CL's are that big?

Eliminating the SLN bases, particularly the infrastructure will be the first priority of active operations, so the effective eradication of BF gets disseminated to the rest of the SL very quickly to promote all the fracturing HH talked about, while the GA destroys the FF's infrastructure, before going after the FF's remaining nodal points, like Meyers.

We still don't know how many OFS sectors there are or some sense of their general size.

Hopefully that will change in the next HH book, which is next year?

L

n7axw wrote:

Hutch wrote:**quote="n7axw"** Hi Hutch,

Your reasoning seems sound here, but I suspect that due to sheer distance, a substantial portion of the SLN won't have tumbled to what is going on, may not have even heard of Spindle or 2nd Manticore let alone understand the implications. That will make their resonse lethargic and slow to realize how things have changed.

Don**quote**

Howdy Don;

You bring up an excellent point. Manticore, despite being hundreds of light years from the Core, actually have the 'inner lines of communication' that military folks have sought for thousands of years. The domination of the wormholes allows for much faster reporting/reaction to events than the Centralized ISLN, where the reports need to go to Sol System and then disseminate outward.

Still, we know that word of New Tuscany is pretty much out to everybody and at least some knowledge of Spindle (wherever the ISLN Command chose to told their commanders) and presumably (given it was several weeks old as of the end of A Rising Thuinder) Second Manticore should at least be known to most of the central Core Worlds.

But the lack of relatively quick communication, combined with the flexibility learned in war by the GA commanders, presents an (IMHO) insurmountable challenge, even to FF or BF commanders that have more than three brain cells to rub together.

We shall see...eventually.


PS--is n7axw your Ham Radio call sign? I'm not a ham, but a good friend of mine is (w1aim).

I was thinking more about those SLN units and squadrons out in the shell or even further out in the Verge policing the protectorates. Some of those poor suckers won't have even a clue for a long time. Their first hint will be when their mail from home stops showing up!

Yep. Been a ham over 35 years now. I'll admit to being proud of it!

Don

Hi KNick,

Well done.

Thank you for making this very important point of how a powerful nominally informed Sollie citizen sees the explored galaxy.

She doesn't consider herself a Solly, nor responsible for what the SL government does, which is what the bureaucrats have taken advantage of.

Changing that mindset will be the real war the GA must win.

L

KNick wrote:Remember the reaction of the manager from the Shadwell Corp. in Mendelschon? Even the people who had heard about New Tuscany and Spindle did not see how it affected them. After all, it was something that happened to someone else somewhere else. It was so far away that it didn't matter. She did not even stop to think that the Manticoran captain she was talking to might have known some of the people who died. Nor did she see a connection between her system and the actions of the SLN until they were pointed out to her. This is probably going to be the standard reaction of the average citizen of the SL.

Hi Bert953,

Interesting points.

Please feel free to post more here, we don't bite.

Re-reading ART is always a pleasure.

In response to your Lacoon 2 projections, I doubt the transtellars would attempt a coup at this point, they're far too independent, and the threat of one peaching would be too great.

Regarding the rest of your Lacoon stages, I don't think the RMN is that rigid in its planning.

The GA has already informed the SL it is at war with it, so no nonsense of presenting it in the Chamber of Stars is required, needed, or desired, NTM being too dangerous for whoever delivered it.

Taking out the SLN infrastructure is a given, including all the reserves, which if Mistletoe's etc aren't to be used, LAC's will do fine.

The SLN infrastructure and reserves are already well known and scouted, so little time needs to be wasted there.

Given 6-7 'anchorages' averaging around 1200 old SD's, open to space with no power etc, roughly a cube 12 X 10 X 10 even if a couple thousand or ten thousand km apart, ought to be easy meat to Shrike-B's and Alpha's given their million km range.

The effect of the loss of the reserves and infrastructure will have profound effects on the SL, NTM the effective elimination of BF; without them to threaten the rest of the SL and protectorates, the mandarins have essentially been castrated.

That might generate some interesting personal experiences for them, that they may have thought would never come their way.

Freeing all the protectorates isn't a critical priority at this moment.

I almost feel the GA should send a couple hundred db's to visit the several hundred OFS victims, to broadcast on all channels what they know of 'Firebrand' and friends etc [a description would be nice], that Manticore has never encouraged such rebellions, while helping all they know of, but be patient because OFS will be gone shortly.

Ninja's or commando's aren't really needed to free them, it will be quite easy when the local TG shows up, with enough boots to put on the ground.

Between them the GA ought to be able to spare a couple DD's, a db or two for messenger duty plus several dozen LAC's to picket them according to the local threat and available allies.

Since the mandarins have been using the 'big lie' for centuries, what do you think will be new?

SLN commerce raiding will have many obstacles, like the odds the GA knows they're coming already, besides the results of Zunker and Saltash etc, which got to earth long before Kingsford came up with his brilliant idea.

Just how brave will FF BC's be if they know GA DD's can kill them so easily?

SLN R&D is still a joke, it's only been a few month's since they realized GA MDM's are really real when Filaretta got popped, though given how short the engagement range was, that's not a sure thing.

RFC has stated it would take at least 5 years before the SLN could build an SDP, even if they knew what one was right now which they don't, and they don't have the five years in the first place.

Regarding your Lacoon 4, the GA is already doing these things; spreading its message of truth around the SL, far beyond the mandarins' control, as HH suggested back in SFtS.

I suspect between the GA and Beowulf [mainly GA db's with Beowulf diplomats], hundreds of db's are already being dispatched to sound out all those systems suspected of sympathizing with the GA, or are ready as soon as the SLN strike at Beowulf fails.

Daud al-Fanudahi's group may survive to do that, assuming they realise how hopeless reforming the SL is, yet expecting them to turn their backs on their decades of service to the SL is quite another question; but I don't expect he thinks he will.

If the mandarins were so stupid as to attempt military conscription [why?] it would only collapse their power sooner, nor is a 'reign of terror' against the OFS victims likely either, since they won't have any way to enforce it; given the two month's it'd take to get to them, the GA ought to be able to liberate them by then.

Again, for your Lacoon 5 stage, why wait?

I believe the GA will do almost all of these immediately because most don't involve the same assets.

I believe there's supposed to be a hiatus of sorts in order for Raul etc to grow up, so we may wait a while before all the leads to the MAlign are tied up.

L

bert953 wrote:Lacoon
Just re-read “A rising thunder”for the 3rd or 4th time. I guess its my favorite in the recent series of Sollie skirmishes. Some of the most interesting parts to me are:
1. The conversation betw Manty merchant marine Captn & the Sollie shipping manager.
2. Activation of Lacoon 2
3. Raj ate his gun.
4. Meeting between x,y & z.
Here are some ideas for expanding the Lacoon concept:
Action Goal Intended & unintended consequences.

Lacoon 1 Recall Manty merchant marine from Sollie space
1. convince Sollies that Manties are not gonna roll over.
2. Remove merchant marines from the line of fire.
3. Free up skilled manpower for offensives against Sollies & MalAlign.

Mandarins discover the error of their ways but their belligerence keeps them calling plays from the same “tried and true” playbook for dealing with neo-barbs.

Sollie economy slows, then goes into recession because transportation stalls. “Who can destroy a thing controls it” – quote from Dune

Sollie citizens believe that govt can solve their problems and become more willing to swallow govt propaganda rather than believe their lying eyes or engage their brains.

Lacoon 2 Close key jump points to Solarian shipping. Raise the stakes Negatively impact the Solarian economy to force the Mandarins to take responsibility for their Navy’s actions. Manty’s begin prosecuting war with Sollies.

Sollie trans stellars attempt a coup that fails, solidifying the Mandarins power, but increasing their fear & paranoia. Sollie R&D starts to move forward, intending to close the technology gap.

Lacoon 3 Manty’s submit declaration of War to Chamber of stars.

2. Identify and target Sollie infrastructure, starting with military R&D facilities, like Technodyne.

3. Task commandos (ninjas) to infiltrate and provide covert assistance to revolutionaries in Verge protectorates (ie do what Firebrand pretends to do).

Keep the Mandarins and the Sillies off balance so they take too long to get their act together. Buy enough time for the Solarian Leauge ship to come apart before they can bridge the technology gap wth the Manicore Alliance.

Mandarins engage the theory of “the big lie”.

Sollies start raiding Manty shipping using Frontier fleet. Frontier fleet takes their frustrations out on any Manty ships they catch. Few survive the experience. MalAlign agents help bureaucratic inefficiency to keep Sollie technology in a “not invented here” mindset. This results in R&D stalling out.

Lacoon 4

1. Public relations campaign to discredit the Mandarins policies.
2. Publicize Frontier Fleet’s secret contingency files from their captured computers.
3. Expose corruption in OFS protectorates & client states including Manpower corporate records and client lists.

Create political division and possibly a constitutional crisis Verge systems try to declare independence.

Most Sollie citizens remain brain dead. However, Daud al-Fanudahi’s coalition makes contact with the Beowulf Biological Survey Corps.

Mandarins institute a military conscription program and begins a reign of terror to keep Verge (and core) systems from succeeding.

Lacoon 5 Initiate banking, corporate & infrastructure cyber warfare & espionage. Prosecute the war on multiple fronts, not just militarily. Destabilize the Solly economy. Follow the money trail to the MalAlign. Anarchy reins, people die & things get blown up. Manty’s get a lead on the Verdant Vista (now Torch) wormhole bridge terminus. Manty’s get wind of the Prometheus or Darius plots.

Seems to me (unless I missed something, it is 2am after all), that most of the posts assume that the major difference between L1 and L2 has emphasized was getting the Manticoran ships, and the timing set accordingly. Partially true, but strategically and tactically less so, and it's discussed several books before aRT.

In essence L-1 one is "stay the hell out of our playground", meaning that no SLN ship, warship or other can now see inside the GA based on access from the wormhole junctions. Information TO the League and therefore the SLN is thereby forced to a crawl, side benefit it gets the RMMC hulls back to safe space, meaning that Frontier Fleet will get notified about what is happening ONLY after it is too late to do anything about it.

So it's a deep space communications blackout, of sorts.


Then the L2 "pygmy" known as the RMN decides to step on ALL of the long distance commercial arteries using the Sag-C's, etc. effectively saying "oh, and by the way, we're taking over ALL of the playgrounds so that we can do whatever the hell we want where you can't see us. And we don't think you've got the ships or guts to stop what we just did."

Which even the SLN leadership knows actually means "oh and by away behind the wall we're going to try and dismember your Verge and maybe some core system loyalties towards folks who like us better".