Dohlar undermanned (spoilers)

I just figured something out. I always immagined that dohlar would have two campaign, keepingthe republic at bay and dealing with the navy. The thing is almost all the army is being rushed to the land border, so who will man the coastal defences. It is not like the republic campaig was planned, they conscripted for the navy, but how much of the army is new.
We know there was a small supply issue to begin with, all rifles were sent in land. focus had been on arming ships, then arming the army. now charis ships are coming, can they ammass the numbers to hold them off, especially as iron clads are coming.
how big is the navy of god?

Hi SYED,

Kudos.

You point of how exposed Dohlar is to amphibious raids is quite accurate NTM important yet overlooked.

Sharpfield hasn't brought that many marines with him, though amphibious raids can certainly multiply the ones he can spare from Claw Island.

We have no hard current figures, the last we had were that Thirsk had around 78-80 odd when those then under construction were finished, besides unnumbered schooners.

Since then Thirsk has added some screw propelled galleys, yet again we have no numbers, nor projection of what they will be when combat is joined.

If the report that Sharpfield's fleet is armored got out, Thirsk may be unwilling to engage in full battle until he gets some ironclads too, which may tick off Clyntahn, but will be supported by Duchairn and Magwair.

We don't know when the Silkiah canal will be taken, but Sharpfield won't get the latest ICA weapons etc until it is.

Unless the Marine TO&E has been changed since Hanth was complaining about not having mortars, the marines may still be without them, which will have a considerable limit on the raids.

The economic, psychological and political effects of such raids should put more pressure on Dohlar to consider ways to appease the alliance.

Plus, we don't know how many fresh ironclads there are which could have all sorts of permutations in terms of the Gulf of Dohlar etc.

L

SYED wrote:I just figured something out. I always immagined that dohlar would have two campaign, keepingthe republic at bay and dealing with the navy. The thing is almost all the army is being rushed to the land border, so who will man the coastal defences. It is not like the republic campaig was planned, they conscripted for the navy, but how much of the army is new.
We know there was a small supply issue to begin with, all rifles were sent in land. focus had been on arming ships, then arming the army. now charis ships are coming, can they ammass the numbers to hold them off, especially as iron clads are coming.
how big is the navy of god?

Hi, lyonheart

My first comment. Oh, well.
So. I thing your read of the situation is not quite right. Oh, up to the end of LaMA it is but that is. Sharpfield realy doesn't hace the power to do much at the moment. However if my calculations of the time is somewhat correct in early summer the ocean ironclads will join him, probably a decent amount of armored galeons too. Considering that Thirsk have nothing to put agains them, and cant build such ships ( money for one, resourses needed for the land battles, lack of the tech, time required to develop, build ...), Charis won't need too many of them to trash him. And they are not stupid enough to let him have the time to prepare. So by the early autumn at most Dohlar's fleet will be history.
That means that Charis gets full domination of the Gulf.
Meaning with them pesky armies in the way the church get cut off from Desnair and South Harchong by water. No trade, and everything will have to be carried by land. Thats money, weapons. artilery, food . You think of blocking the canal in Silkah? Man, at this point I'll go for a full invasion of Dohlar. Forget raids.
Consider - Charis have about 50k soldiers in Corisande. The local army will have most of an year to integrate nad train with the new toys. And in that time they will have all the time they need to outfit it. Having in mind the populaion mood in Corisande after the wedding, I'm fairly confident that Charis will be able to include a nice amount of them for a little adventure.
And as we know Dohlar is rushing every new weapon to the battle lines in an efford to hold the allys. And as new republic division enter the fight, the ... dificulties Desnair will face with making new weapons and sending new model troops to the frons, and the lag South Harchong will face with his water comunicals disrupted be Sharpfield even now... Well, let say that I dont belive that Dohlar will have nearly enough well equiped fighting force, nor the cover to do much if Caleb desides to land the above army whereever he pleases when Thirsk is out of the picture. And then you dont even want to consider what that will mean to the Temple economicly and military.

Why is this thread marked as a spoiler? It contains only speculation, not any information from unpublished books.

In any event, Dohlar is screwed but I think the real last turn will be when ICN cuts off any traffic in the Gulf of Dohlar, takes Riverboats up and trashes the Langhorne Canal, controls the bay of Bess and the Salthar canal, then where will the hungry 1.2 million Harchong contingent go? If they can't be fed, the Army will go where there is something to eat and take what they want. Logistics - they will go to the Temple lands or to Dohlar. The battlefields they have in front of them are scraped bare from another hardship winter.

I have said it before, Dohlar has more to worry about than the Charisians and Siddermarkians. If Clyntahn is disappointed in Dohlar (perhaps because their Navy has surrendered or is at the bottom of the sea, He could order the attack himself. He is crazy after all.

=2014/06/21=
Hi Deqnius

WELCOME TO THE FORUMS !!

Interesting post - - keep 'em coming

R
.

If the navy can mess with the langhorne canal, then alot of the supplies wont reach the harchong forces or the northern frontline.
How much of dohlaran industry is in gorath bay? It is where they kept the navy till it was large enough to fight.

while the iron clads are near immune to the present canoms, what if thirsk ships avoid them, and simply attacj those ships it can harm. with out support ironclads become vulnerable due to fuel issues.

Unlikly. Messing with Langhorn canal will be nearly impossible now that the Temple knows to blow the locks when it has to.
As to the industry of Dohlar, building a fleet that size and maitaining it will require no small production abase. It was mensioned in one in the previos books that the church was shifting weapon production from navy to army. So a lot of the army supply industry will be near the cost.
Next, fighting a sea battle is not the same as fighting a land one. It was also explained during the attack of Ithria.If your enemy attacks he will chose the time so the wind and the current will be in his favor. So I don't believe Thirsk galleons will be able maneur around ironclads and armored galleons to get to whats behind them. Not without paying one hell of a price, that will make them less than able to handle the normal galleons that should be positioned and aligned behing them. Screw galleys would be another thing, however Thirsk doesnt have nearly enough of them and I dont see him geting the resourses to build them. Not sinse it's known that they are not ships he can bring in blue water fight. Still, even they cant match ironclads speed and maneurability.
If you mean that Thirsk can disperse his fleet to numerous direction and fight that kind of battle, it will be even worse. Rock Point has SNARKS and can simply hunt them down before asaulting the gorath harbour. Ships need ports - food, supplys and more. Spreading the fleet will be an invitation to be quickly chewed in little bites.

lyonheart wrote:Hi SYED,

Kudos.

You point of how exposed Dohlar is to amphibious raids is quite accurate NTM important yet overlooked.

Sharpfield hasn't brought that many marines with him, though amphibious raids can certainly multiply the ones he can spare from Claw Island.

We have no hard current figures, the last we had were that Thirsk had around 78-80 odd when those then under construction were finished, besides unnumbered schooners.

Since then Thirsk has added some screw propelled galleys, yet again we have no numbers, nor projection of what they will be when combat is joined.

If the report that Sharpfield's fleet is armored got out, Thirsk may be unwilling to engage in full battle until he gets some ironclads too, which may tick off Clyntahn, but will be supported by Duchairn and Magwair.

We don't know when the Silkiah canal will be taken, but Sharpfield won't get the latest ICA weapons etc until it is.

Unless the Marine TO&E has been changed since Hanth was complaining about not having mortars, the marines may still be without them, which will have a considerable limit on the raids.

The economic, psychological and political effects of such raids should put more pressure on Dohlar to consider ways to appease the alliance.

Plus, we don't know how many fresh ironclads there are which could have all sorts of permutations in terms of the Gulf of Dohlar etc.

L

SYED wrote:I just figured something out. I always immagined that dohlar would have two campaign, keepingthe republic at bay and dealing with the navy. The thing is almost all the army is being rushed to the land border, so who will man the coastal defences. It is not like the republic campaig was planned, they conscripted for the navy, but how much of the army is new.
We know there was a small supply issue to begin with, all rifles were sent in land. focus had been on arming ships, then arming the army. now charis ships are coming, can they ammass the numbers to hold them off, especially as iron clads are coming.
how big is the navy of god?

Actually, there is no reason to assume that Dohlar is that badly undermanned. IIRC, its population is around 80,000,000. They certainly can raise the warm bodies needed for their own defense. For that matter,there is no reason to think that the coastal defenses were ever undermanned. And their leadership is quite good. For Dohlar the issue will be dealing with Charis' superior firepower and the iron clads produced by a superior industrial capability and tech.

Don

Which marines are going to the Gulf of Dohlar? If we are talking about the ~30,000 in Corisande, they might well have mortars. These are the guys stationed to run herd on Corisande and would need almost all the new ICA toys. They might not have the internal logistics capabilities of the ICA, but they might have most of their infantry toys.

I doubt the marines currently with Sharpfield will have those toys, but I am sure the ones arriving with the KH VIIs from Corisande will.

lyonheart wrote:Hi SYED,

Kudos.

You point of how exposed Dohlar is to amphibious raids is quite accurate NTM important yet overlooked.

Sharpfield hasn't brought that many marines with him, though amphibious raids can certainly multiply the ones he can spare from Claw Island.

We have no hard current figures, the last we had were that Thirsk had around 78-80 odd when those then under construction were finished, besides unnumbered schooners.

Since then Thirsk has added some screw propelled galleys, yet again we have no numbers, nor projection of what they will be when combat is joined.

If the report that Sharpfield's fleet is armored got out, Thirsk may be unwilling to engage in full battle until he gets some ironclads too, which may tick off Clyntahn, but will be supported by Duchairn and Magwair.

We don't know when the Silkiah canal will be taken, but Sharpfield won't get the latest ICA weapons etc until it is.

Unless the Marine TO&E has been changed since Hanth was complaining about not having mortars, the marines may still be without them, which will have a considerable limit on the raids.

The economic, psychological and political effects of such raids should put more pressure on Dohlar to consider ways to appease the alliance.

Plus, we don't know how many fresh ironclads there are which could have all sorts of permutations in terms of the Gulf of Dohlar etc.

L