Reaction to Gbabba reveal

I just had the idle thought that once the 'montrous lie' the church is based on and the Gbabba threat revealed the reaction of the general population on Safehold might not be what I as a reader had anticipated so far.

There will be people - quite a lot of them most likely - who simply choose not to believe the revelations. That part I always assumed.

But that's not the end of it: What if a significant part of the people who do end up believing in the Gbabba threat come to the conclusion that Langhorne had it right? That he lied in a good cause?

Will the majority of the population really, really share Merlin's belief that a second confrontation is inevitable and needs to be prepared for? Wouldn't it sound seductive to 'go back to sleep' by foresaking technology (again) and return to the state pre-Merlin instead of going to war with an over-powerful interstellar race?

That we as readers don't believe that hiding under a rock forever would work is one thing. But that doesn't mean a lot of people on Safehold wouldn't want it and oppose Merlin and his 'war faction'. Especially since going back to sleep would sound like keeping life like it has been on Safehold and spare a lot of people having to make potentially uncomfortable adjustments to the new developments.

Bruno Behrends wrote:I just had the idle thought that once the 'montrous lie' the church is based on and the Gbabba threat revealed the reaction of the general population on Safehold might not be what I as a reader had anticipated so far.

There will be people - quite a lot of them most likely - who simply choose not to believe the revelations. That part I always assumed.

But that's not the end of it: What if a significant part of the people who do end up believing in the Gbabba threat come to the conclusion that Langhorne had it right? That he lied in a good cause?

Will the majority of the population really, really share Merlin's belief that a second confrontation is inevitable and needs to be prepared for? Wouldn't it sound seductive to 'go back to sleep' by foresaking technology (again) and return to the state pre-Merlin instead of going to war with an over-powerful interstellar race?

That we as readers don't believe that hiding under a rock forever would work is one thing. But that doesn't mean a lot of people on Safehold wouldn't want it and oppose Merlin and his 'war faction'. Especially since going back to sleep would sound like keeping life like it has been on Safehold and spare a lot of people having to make potentially uncomfortable adjustments to the new developments.

Sounds like it would only be attractive to the rich and powerful, and even then only to the men. Once people get a view of how technology is going to improve their lives they will never let it go.

Also rejecting technology would be impractical since it only works if it is done worldwide. That means a war between the technologists and the traditionalists, and guess who has all the best weapons? If the traditionalists develop modern industry "just until we win the war", see above paragraph.

Randomiser wrote:

Bruno Behrends wrote:I just had the idle thought that once the 'montrous lie' the church is based on and the Gbabba threat revealed the reaction of the general population on Safehold might not be what I as a reader had anticipated so far.

There will be people - quite a lot of them most likely - who simply choose not to believe the revelations. That part I always assumed.

But that's not the end of it: What if a significant part of the people who do end up believing in the Gbabba threat come to the conclusion that Langhorne had it right? That he lied in a good cause?

Will the majority of the population really, really share Merlin's belief that a second confrontation is inevitable and needs to be prepared for? Wouldn't it sound seductive to 'go back to sleep' by foresaking technology (again) and return to the state pre-Merlin instead of going to war with an over-powerful interstellar race?

That we as readers don't believe that hiding under a rock forever would work is one thing. But that doesn't mean a lot of people on Safehold wouldn't want it and oppose Merlin and his 'war faction'. Especially since going back to sleep would sound like keeping life like it has been on Safehold and spare a lot of people having to make potentially uncomfortable adjustments to the new developments.

Sounds like it would only be attractive to the rich and powerful, and even then only to the men. Once people get a view of how technology is going to improve their lives they will never let it go.

Also rejecting technology would be impractical since it only works if it is done worldwide. That means a war between the technologists and the traditionalists, and guess who has all the best weapons? If the traditionalists develop modern industry "just until we win the war", see above paragraph.

Also, that's the reason for Merlin's overall strategy. In OAR he considers (and rejects) the idea of presenting himself as a new archangel who has come to steer mankind along a different path. And he rejects it because it wouldn't really achieve his underlying goal of getting people en masse to think for themselves (aside from the moral repugnance he feels over the concept). And he explains as much to Cayleb in BSRA on how he can't just hand the knowledge to them because people on Safehold need to develop the right mindset.

So it isn't just the potential improvement in their lives that will prevent mankind from "going back to sleep as it were". It will be the force of thousands, even millions, of humans who want to understand the natural world around. Add to that the fact that the oligarchy / aristocracy / monarchy has allied itself with the church at the expense of the common folk and gotten increasingly richer at their expense and you get no viable champions for Langhorne's cause.

For those that agree with Langehorn, the others can find another place far away from Safehold to begin another hideaway. This time everyone will know going forward what they are getting into. The rules will be made clear and all of those new colonists can hide.

I believe the fundemental issue isn't what Langehorn decided, because others might indeed agree. It is that he did not present his vision openly and honestly and allow those that agreed to choose his vision over any other alternative.

PeterZ wrote:For those that agree with Langehorn, the others can find another place far away from Safehold to begin another hideaway. This time everyone will know going forward what they are getting into. The rules will be made clear and all of those new colonists can hide.

I believe the fundemental issue isn't what Langehorn decided, because others might indeed agree. It is that he did not present his vision openly and honestly and allow those that agreed to choose his vision over any other alternative.

That won't be possible until Safehold has developed enough technology to get these people to another planet. By the time another colony could be established, the new scientists would already be very close to being able to defeat the Gbaba.

I do think you're right in that a large segment of the population will rather bury their heads in the sand and want to return to the status quo. However, as other posters have mentioned, the genie is already out of the bottle. There's no way everyone will want to turn back the technological clock.

What I'm curious about is how the reveal will pan out. Just thinking about history here on Earth, I think it's safe to say that people have trouble letting go of their dogmas, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. How will Safehold react to the truth? Especially when you consider that a lot of their dogma is based on actual "evidence" as planned by Langhorn. I think it will likely be a huge, messy, bloody affair. The War of the Reveal will make the current conflict look like a minor skirmish.

AncientMariner wrote:I do think you're right in that a large segment of the population will rather bury their heads in the sand and want to return to the status quo. However, as other posters have mentioned, the genie is already out of the bottle. There's no way everyone will want to turn back the technological clock.

What I'm curious about is how the reveal will pan out. Just thinking about history here on Earth, I think it's safe to say that people have trouble letting go of their dogmas, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. How will Safehold react to the truth? Especially when you consider that a lot of their dogma is based on actual "evidence" as planned by Langhorn. I think it will likely be a huge, messy, bloody affair. The War of the Reveal will make the current conflict look like a minor skirmish.

I suspect that how the reveal works out will depend on how it is handled. If its shoved down people's throats, yes there could be a lot of blood shed. For that reason, let the Brethren of St. Zhearnau handle it with some discrete government subsidy. Insist that tolerance be the law of the land and apply it to everyone from the temple loyalists to the Brethren. Accelerate the pace of innovation, but encouage others to begin innovating and gradually widen the range of what is acceptable.

Since the inquisition's power is broken it should become easier to innovate, but given Safehold's centuries long conditioning, it will be a long time before it's completely safe. In fact it will be safer in some places than in others.

The important thing isn't that the whole planet "suddenly come to believe the truth about Langhorne," but rather that the traditionalists can no longer coerce others into believing it their way and that alternative systems of belief receive official protection rather than being condemned, thus opening the way for the advancement of science and technology.

Don

n7axw wrote:
[snip]

The important thing isn't that the whole planet "suddenly come to believe the truth about Langhorne," but rather that the traditionalists can no longer coerce others into believing it their way and that alternative systems of belief receive official protection rather than being condemned, thus opening the way for the advancement of science and technology.

Don

Oh, yes, I don't think any of us foresee that the genie of scientific advancement will ever get back into its bottle after the - hopefully successful - conclusion of the current war against the church.

My point is though that Merlin & Co. need to find a way to reconcile the various factions enough to prevent a cycle of follow-on wars.

And if there were a large faction of people believing Langhorne was right and technology must be abolished again the task of promoting and keeping peace would be even harder than it will be anyway.

Hi Don or N7AXW,

Kudos for another excellent analysis.

Forcing people to accept even the concept of the Gbabba doesn't seem like the inner circle's plan, let alone Maikel's, nor would it suit Merlin; rather getting people to realise, however quietly or individually that the Go4 was wrong about Siddarmark and Charis, then that Langhorne and friends were wrong, assuming no evidence from under the temple is able to confirm he was very mortal, not an archangel, possibly from his own journals.

RFC has stated that Cayleb may accidentally let the cat out of the bag regarding the inner circle's beliefs [or non-belief in Langhorne, IIRC], whether that's during or after the current war we don't know, but I think most are leaning towards the next, even though it probably won't involve the 'great reveal'.

Several including me have stated the CoGA powers can't let the alliance continue to extend their technological lead nor their obvious democratic and cultural challenges to the old established order be unmet, so sooner than later they will renew the war; probably under the guise of a religious crusade to rescue the temple, again with catastrophic results for them.

RFC has made it plain there will be a series of wars, most of a religious nature for the foreseeable future.

Most have suggested the 'great reveal' will be the last.

That doesn't mean there won't be wars after that to determine what course(s) to take in dealing with the Gbabba, humans being human.

L

n7axw wrote:

AncientMariner wrote:I do think you're right in that a large segment of the population will rather bury their heads in the sand and want to return to the status quo. However, as other posters have mentioned, the genie is already out of the bottle. There's no way everyone will want to turn back the technological clock.

What I'm curious about is how the reveal will pan out. Just thinking about history here on Earth, I think it's safe to say that people have trouble letting go of their dogmas, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. How will Safehold react to the truth? Especially when you consider that a lot of their dogma is based on actual "evidence" as planned by Langhorn. I think it will likely be a huge, messy, bloody affair. The War of the Reveal will make the current conflict look like a minor skirmish.

I suspect that how the reveal works out will depend on how it is handled. If its shoved down people's throats, yes there could be a lot of blood shed. For that reason, let the Brethren of St. Zhearnau handle it with some discrete government subsidy. Insist that tolerance be the law of the land and apply it to everyone from the temple loyalists to the Brethren. Accelerate the pace of innovation, but encouage others to begin innovating and gradually widen the range of what is acceptable.

Since the inquisition's power is broken it should become easier to innovate, but given Safehold's centuries long conditioning, it will be a long time before it's completely safe. In fact it will be safer in some places than in others.

The important thing isn't that the whole planet "suddenly come to believe the truth about Langhorne," but rather that the traditionalists can no longer coerce others into believing it their way and that alternative systems of belief receive official protection rather than being condemned, thus opening the way for the advancement of science and technology.

Don

I wonder if RFC will tell the story of those other wars or if they will be referred to briefly as he tells the story of getting ready for and encountering the Gbabba. I understand that there only to be one or two more books to this story arc
Then we get a time jump to the next one with the Gbabba with a total of 12 books. Given the way he writes, it doesn't seem like a lot of space for more wars,ot time given his commitment to the Honorverse.

Don