Defeating a numerically superior enemy.

The thing is the church had the temple guard and the armed forces to send every gun and projectile weaponry to arm the harchong empire, even new shipments might be sent to them as well. If something goes badly, those armed forces wont have any thing to fight back with, say the harchong army running away from charis, deserting into the border states.
I am betting harchong logistics may be at risk, we are talking about supplying an army of over a million soldiers, continually in a campaign. THere must be a limit on how much the canal can carry at one time. The republic could use the waterway from spinefish bay to channel supplies, but it may require repairs to do so. how much of their army is still going to be cavalry.

THere was an exlosion at one of the locks in the border lands, do we know how long it would take to repair.

Instead of a decisive land victory, I am thinking that they can get the iron clads in to that bay for the zion, simply destroying every bit of industry in range of their guns would be enought to really mess with the church. i am thinking that bay is similiar to other bodies of water, that allow the local national a great deal of economic increase.

The retreating desnair force has limited resources and supply, so will end up loosing a great number of people as winter progresses. while they might get reinforcements, do they have enough supplies available.
most of the harchong army will need to wait til the canal is restored. i wonder how long until they get the concept of fragging certain officers, especially those enforcers. the church officers might be protected due to the church, and the fact they taught them how to ight, but those harchong officers who wanted them to charge with no weapons into artilery and rifle fire will suffer greatly. merlin could help it allong. chhose the worst officers in the army, and eliminate them with their own weapons, eventually they will fo it for themselves.

Hi EasternMystic,

As you might guess machine guns have often been discussed here, with some favoring the Gardner over the Gatling or Mitrailleuse, while going straight to the Maxim also seems quite possible now.

I and others have previously pointed out the MG isn't necessary to win this war, given the far vaster superiority the alliance has in field artillery and mortars among other things.

Given the probability of Zion being invaded either this summer by BGV or next year by the whole alliance, the current war might be over by the end of 898, though only RFC and Sharon know for now.

L

Easternmystic wrote:

Arol wrote:Hi all. My first post, and as I just finished LAMA I thought I'd give the forum a visit while waiting for the next instalment.
I'm no military expert, but it seems like we are talking force multipliers.The best one is already in place:
The foe is an enemy whose awoved goal is not only to defeat you but to tortue you to death if you are captured, and not only you but your comrades, family, friends. that's got to be a powerful multiplier.
Your industrial base is a given.
Here is one that I havn't seen mentioned yet, and it's especially relevant after LAMA, where large industrial scale cartridge manefacture has been started: The Gatling.

I know people have a thing for Gatling guns, but the Gardiner gun is superior weapon. It's easier to manufacuture, the operator is less exposed, and it is the direct predecessor for the Hiram Machine Gun. All in all it makes more sense to start with the Gardiner gun. Especially since the Mandrahyn ploy backfired.

Metallic cartridges are only starting to be manufactured at the end of LAMA. They have not been used yet and it's likely that it will take until the second half of the current year until their are sufficient weapons and ammunition available to justify their introduction to the battlefield.

When they are introduced, COGA will be unable to copy the concept until they have solved the problem of standardization. I see that taking at least 2-5 years, at which point the current war will likely be over or in it's final stages. Machine guns are likely going to be a weapon for the next war when the great lie is revealed.

lyonheart wrote:As you might guess machine guns have often been discussed here, with some favoring the Gardner over the Gatling or Mitrailleuse, while going straight to the Maxim also seems quite possible now.

If Charis could manage to mass produce a Maxim, the could mass produce an AK-47. Maxim or Browning style heavy machine guns are ideal for trench warfare, but Charis doesn't seem inclined to stay entrenched. An Assault rifle like the AK would suit the Charisian tactics better.

We know the church is reaching financial hardship. Can they rebuild their fleet, if they destroy the dohlar ships and harbour infrastructure? they might be even more costly as not only are they fitted out, but every dead and permanently wounded causalty of the navy of god earns their dependants a pension, and a new person needs to be found and paid to do the job.
The death of the fleet, may mean the church is forced to the negotiation table, as they might not be able to pay for the land war.
if the navy of god is destroyed, then shiping in the gulf og dohlar will be open season for the imperial navy. and the major harbors risk being torched and destroyed. each strike would cost the church more and more.
harchong will be made to pay mmore and more til they stop, and possibly demand their army back, at least the officers and nobles, the serfs and slaves would be too tainted/dangerous for them any more.
imagine it an army abandoned, getting no pay and no way home, recipe for disaster, they might wreak the border states, the republic or both
the harchong could do what people with a military surplus always do, go conquer someplace new. There are those small kingdom on howard, or they might even go after the border states themselves.
they might not even need to touch the temple or zion, destroy the harbor and you could bring it to its knees.

I forget the name, but the church force in the republic, that unlike the more northern one, can still be supplied by the canal system. With that fort taken out, that branch or canal will soon be secured. It is a much shorter distance from coast and enemy position, ir this canal is used. Potentially an iron could could charge in and assault them. is it far enough south for the canal to be free of ice?
the suprise of the attack, and the fact the boat can get so close to the city while taking fire will be key. While the charisians have better range, long distance bombardment of a properly fortified position can be tricky. Ironclad ships can bring their heavy guns in as close as they like. We know that the church force still out numbers their attackers, so mainly they are stuck in the town unable to advance due to superior enemy positions. If the rebulic tried to meet them in open battle, the church would have a chance of victory.
If they quickly defeat that forge, it allows them access to the canal network, potentially getting them between the church forward position, and its entry point into the republic.

I'm going to suggest that the real force multiplier isn't going to be weaponry at all, but rather the superior mobility of the Imperial forces.

By being able to move faster and farther than their opponents, the Imperial forces will be able to turn flanks, threaten logistics and lines of communication and paralyze the decision making of the CoGA military and political command structures. In many ways, this could be done without even firing a shot (and eventually the entire CoGA will break down as people chase or hide from rumoured appearances of ICA forces). A concerted PSYOPS campaign running in tandem with a far ranging campaign will make the collapse happen even faster as rumours, misinformation and disinformation fill the communications channels of the CoGA.

Think of McArthur landing at Inchon and turning the DPRK flank during the Korean War (or the earlier Island Hopping Campaign waged by the US Army against the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy). Other historical campaigns can also be mined for the use of strategic mobility (Sherman's "March to the Sea" comes to mind, and is even taking place in a similar tech era to Safehold), but you can use your own example.

Hi Thucydides,

Celerity in maneuver has always been a force multiplier, but the ICA's overwhelming artillery advantage multiplies that even further.

If Howsmyn has already produced bikes for the ICA infantry so 60-80 miles per day is common, the Go4 will be repeatedly surprised because they know its impossible.

The IJN used the island-hopping technique against MacArthur first in isolating the Philippines, and his later claim of insightful genius was actually his staff's, and ignores his lengthy attempts to take Rabaul despite the Pentagon's early recognition it wasn't necessary.

So "hitting them where they ain't" was fairly obvious to a lot of 'strategists', which we may see on Safehold in the coming books, perhaps by BGV moving via Spinefish Bay to Zion in a couple of 5days after he destroys the northern IHA section replacing Wyrshym's wreck of an army.

Taking the Silkiah canal soon is obvious, to multiply the power of the ICN fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar, besides isolating Desnar, South Harchong and Haven.

Bypassing or driving thru to take Dairnyth by one of the other armies would cut Dohlar off as well thanks to the ICN, leaving the temple more alone than its ever been, even in its worst nightmares.

Panic then can cause all sorts of opportunities for the alliance at that juncture.

Then the real fun begins.

L

Thucydides wrote:I'm going to suggest that the real force multiplier isn't going to be weaponry at all, but rather the superior mobility of the Imperial forces.

By being able to move faster and farther than their opponents, the Imperial forces will be able to turn flanks, threaten logistics and lines of communication and paralyze the decision making of the CoGA military and political command structures. In many ways, this could be done without even firing a shot (and eventually the entire CoGA will break down as people chase or hide from rumoured appearances of ICA forces). A concerted PSYOPS campaign running in tandem with a far ranging campaign will make the collapse happen even faster as rumours, misinformation and disinformation fill the communications channels of the CoGA.

Think of McArthur landing at Inchon and turning the DPRK flank during the Korean War (or the earlier Island Hopping Campaign waged by the US Army against the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy). Other historical campaigns can also be mined for the use of strategic mobility (Sherman's "March to the Sea" comes to mind, and is even taking place in a similar tech era to Safehold), but you can use your own example.

I'm not saying that rounds count trumps everything else. I'm saying that if you know nothing else about two opposing forces, the higher round count will typically belong to the victor.

If I have iron sights and manage to get 5 guys to throw 10,000 rounds at your 200, who manage to return a scant 400 rounds, I've probably won; for one, the greatest predictor of the number of hits scored in combat is the number of rounds fired, and for two, someone lived long enough to hold down the trigger that long! If I have some sort of optics and a modicum of training? My civilian masters are going to send investigators to find out why everyone killed with direct fire during our battle was taken down with a headshot. While the investigation is being conducted ill most likely be held on the suspicion that I actually was executing prisoners or people attempting to surrender. At least, that's how it happened during OIF, iirc.

Tenshinai wrote:

Undercover Fat Kid wrote:I was taught that all other things being equal, the side that fires the most bullets will win. By that philosophy, more numbers is only helpful insofar as two guns fire faster than one. No doubt a sufficiently large force imbalance could overcome that calculus, but I'd say its close enough to be going on with.

Nah, that completely ignores maneuver. Which is usually far more decisive.

And HOW you fire can be just as important.

My usual example perfectly illustrate it, Swedish 17th century army style of engagement.
Get the other side to start shooting at you, then advance until either 30-50m away if you´re going to fire twice, or 10-30m if only once. Then have everyone fire together.
Then chaaaarge.

The enemies fire maybe 2-6 times as many shots, but few will hit at longer range.
While "we" only fire at highly effective range AND all at once, and at close range this is like throwing modern flashbang grenades right into the enemies face, most of them are then effectively stunned while getting charged.

*ouchy*

Undercover Fat Kid wrote:I'm not saying that rounds count trumps everything else. I'm saying that if you know nothing else about two opposing forces, the higher round count will typically belong to the victor.

If I have iron sights and manage to get 5 guys to throw 10,000 rounds at your 200, who manage to return a scant 400 rounds, I've probably won; for one, the greatest predictor of the number of hits scored in combat is the number of rounds fired, and for two, someone lived long enough to hold down the trigger that long! If I have some sort of optics and a modicum of training? My civilian masters are going to send investigators to find out why everyone killed with direct fire during our battle was taken down with a headshot. While the investigation is being conducted ill most likely be held on the suspicion that I actually was executing prisoners or people attempting to surrender. At least, that's how it happened during OIF, iirc.

My example still stands, as it´s taken from reality rather than theory.

You could also use WWII as the example, US troops in combat with the Germans very rarely spent less than twice as much ammo during a battle, more often five times, ten times or even more than thirty times the ammo.

It was normal, as in baseline normal, for US artillery to have ammo per day, similar to what German artillery had during a week of fighting.

Both when winning a battle and when loosing it.

You can find similar examples all over in history, which is why i can´t not reject the claim.