Long term consequences of the League's collapse

n7axw wrote:Your comment about Switzerland's toughness as a military target is well taken. Yet it does reinforce my point. Why pay the price to conquer Switzerland when there would be so little return? As for trading routes, it's much easier to go around than through.

Forgot to reply to this point.

Switzerland sits astride most of the only passes through the mountains of central Europe; avoiding Switzerland usually involves detours of hundreds or thousands of miles.

That's a direct comparison to Manticore's position as the nexus of the Wormhole network. It is possible to trade around the Manticore WHJ, but the shortest, cheapest route from almost-anywhere to just-about-everywhere goes through Manticore.

n7axw wrote:Besides, although what you said about Switzerland as a military target is true, the Swiss have never been able to project military power beyond their borders.

The Swiss have never needed to project power, but they have historically provided some of the best and most reliable mercenaries, like the Papal Guards.

In that respect, the future will look a lot like the Pax Britannica period of the English Empire. But then no analogy is perfect; there will be parallels with several real-world examples.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:Your comment about Switzerland's toughness as a military target is well taken. Yet it does reinforce my point. Why pay the price to conquer Switzerland when there would be so little return? As for trading routes, it's much easier to go around than through.

Forgot to reply to this point.

Switzerland sits astride most of the only passes through the mountains of central Europe; avoiding Switzerland usually involves detours of hundreds or thousands of miles.

That's a direct comparison to Manticore's position as the nexus of the Wormhole network. It is possible to trade around the Manticore WHJ, but the shortest, cheapest route from almost-anywhere to just-about-everywhere goes through Manticore.

n7axw wrote:Besides, although what you said about Switzerland as a military target is true, the Swiss have never been able to project military power beyond their borders.

The Swiss have never needed to project power, but they have historically provided some of the best and most reliable mercenaries, like the Papal Guards.

In that respect, the future will look a lot like the Pax Britannica period of the English Empire. But then no analogy is perfect; there will be parallels with several real-world examples.

Hi Harold,

I think your comment about the trade routes through Switzerland need some qualification. I have ben looking at a detailed topographical maps and it looks to me like it depends on where you start from. If you are in central of Southern France, it looks to me like you go down past Toulouse to the Mediterranean or perhaps down to Marseille. In that event, you do the water transport thing which is cheaper than going on land. Or if you are a bit further north, Vienna sits in a river valley that would pass you through. Or if you are north and want to go east you go past Poznan and start angling toward the Black Sea and Istanbul. In fact about the only place going across the Swiss Alps gets you by land is into Italy and perhaps along the Adriatic into the Balkans. I'm sure that is doable, of course, but I suspect in terms of the economics of passing any substantial amount of goods, it would be a tough go. But then, Venice traded north for years and became wealthy at it. Also Hannibal crossed with his elephants and Charles the V and others crossed with armies, so I suppose there is something I am not seeing on my map.

The other qualification is how big are the trade areas going east? Not huge. Certainly there was some, but I suspect that the bulk was in the Mideast and beyond.

Adding everything up, from Western Europe the cheapest way to go almost anywhere would be by the sea. Once your cargo floats, you go from the shoreline of Southeastern France to almost any point on the Mediterranean. Or you go through the straits of Gibraltar. Or you go around the horn, all of which is cheaper than caravanning. But again, this is qualified by starting point. So pay your money and take your chances!

As for Manticore, I really have no disagreement with you there. The junction gives access to almost 2/3rds of the perimeter of the League when all's said.

Don

n7axw wrote:I think your comment about the trade routes through Switzerland need some qualification. I have ben looking at a detailed topographical maps and it looks to me like it depends on where you start from.

True, I engaged a bit of hyperbole. I was thinking mostly in terms of the Ring Of Fire series and dirigible routes they are establishing ca 1636. From Germany to Italy, the Ottoman empire, and points east along the silk road all go through/over Swiss cantons.

There are other routes possible, for sure, especially if you're already in the south of France or east of Bohemia, but Switzerland commands the center square.

Well, if you do have a general collapse of the League any number of things could happen, not very many of them good.

First I think it's important to look at what the League provided to most of known space prior to it's collapse. While the League itself was corrupt in a number of ways and it's government virtually hamstrung by each member's veto power, the fact is that it did provide for peace and security amongst it's members and whether welcome or not, also provided stability along it's borders.

With peace and stability comes trade which breeds a generally efficient distribution or goods from planets which have what others need to those that need it. While this benefit mostly accrued to the planets of the core, worlds in the shell also largely benefited from this system and even the frontier worlds enjoyed a degree of stability and the lack of large scale armed conflict.

The moment the League truly begins to collapse, this situation no longer applies. All of a sudden systems who were all in the same boat generally rowing in the same direction suddenly are not. Neighbors become rivals and without the 800 lb SLN sitting in the room, rivals now had new alternatives for expressing their grievances, or their ambitions and without a counterbalancing force to stop it, this is exactly what will happen.

With the loss of peace and security, comes severe disruptions in trade and commerce. Even if everything devolves into a number of small peaceful groups of planets merchants will now be faced not simply with a good deal of administration, taxes, tariffs and regulations which didn't exist before. This will tend to make trade and commerce less efficient which will tend to lead to significant economic dislocations (i.e. recessions and depressions depending on how much this is impacted).

However if the universe doesn't follow the pink unicorns and fluffy clouds version you'll probably find things a good deal grimmer and more desperate.

Many planetary economy's will simply collapse. Essentially many of these worlds are interdependent upon each other as different worlds will tend to specialize in the areas where they have a natural advantage and import goods from worlds with can do other things at a lesser cost. Once this ability to freely transfer needed goods and services from planet to planet, many worlds will find that they simply don't have the capability or even the correct skill base to make it on their own.

This will influence worlds to take any number of actions depending on the preferences of their leaders, how desperate they are, what they lack and who has it.

Some systems who are advantageously positioned will band together but a number will be faced with either a massive downgrade in their economic status or with the possibility of finding what they need through other means. Other means will often mean aggressive action which can lead on the lower end to state sponsored piracy or simply taking what they want and need from others.

Some systems or groups of systems will simply be inclined to take what they need if those they need it from are weak and they are strong.

What you get in essence is a Huge Silesia with islands of some stability but with a large area of general chaos. Of course it's likely to be MUCH worse that Silesia because these won't be small frontier worlds with limited resources, these are going to be shell and core worlds with much larger needs and resources to fill them some with SDFs and the remnants of the SLN floating around.

All of this is going to create lots of instability which trade and commerce wither and die in and so do the economies of all concerned. What you're going to get is a economic and social upheaval which, if left unchecked, could make the Dark Ages seem like and era of enlightenment.

It is of course exactly this kind of situation which the RF plans for and depends on. To offer a area of stability in the midst of the chaos and for this island to attract enough worlds to it that it becomes the dominant power in what used to be the League.

Long term depends on how this tends to settle out, essentially who are the survivors and what resources do they still have when things shake themselves out. Where will the rallying points be, how many worlds will be able to make it on their own, how many worlds will fall or be gobbled up by others. Will the RF be successful and them, what will the Rim worlds do.

Will Manticore attempt to stabilize the League or parts of it that they deem important. Will they attempt to expand the SEM to include former League worlds. How much economic damage will Manticore suffer. It's going to be more than significant if the League actually fails, after all, who's going to pay those junction fees and how much shipping for all those bottoms is there going to be in this brave new world.

My guess is that the fall of the League could be one of the greatest disasters in human history by the time it's fully run it's course. Certainly it will be if the RF plan works as designed but even without the RF, it's probably going to be fairly horrific.

Alizon wrote:...While the League itself was corrupt in a number of ways and it's government virtually hamstrung by each member's veto power, the fact is that it did provide for peace and security amongst it's members and whether welcome or not, also provided stability along it's borders.

With peace and stability comes trade which breeds a generally efficient distribution or goods from planets which have what others need to those that need it. ...

You have a strange definition of "Peace and Stability along its Borders."

Your analysis has some validity where BF rules, but the further you get from the Core and the further you get into the jurisdiction of Frontier Fleet and OFS, the less "peace and stability" you find. Especially in areas like the Talbot Quadrant where everyone was just holding their breath and waiting for OFS to get around to them -- and the Talbot sector was in relatively good shape for verge worlds.

The entire border of the Solarian league lived in fear of OFS and FF and only had the stability brought about by the lack of any counter-force to keep OFS and FF at bay.

Not that any of that is going to change much. A lot will depend on the particular sector Governor and/or the local FF sector commander. They may be far sighted and be working to minimize disruptions like the Maya sector, or they may be venal Mesan lapdogs like Verochio and the Madras sector. The latter type will be limited only by FF ship availability and proximity to the GA or RF; working against the GA and indirectly for the RF.

But all that upheaval is short and medium term effects. The question here is the Long-term effect. Most of the former SL will have settled out into pocket empires and local warlords who are having trouble holding what they have. The GA will have stepped on the remnants of the SLN and league that still hold onto that designation and any warlord who looks to be a threat to the GA, leaving a patchwork quilt of small nations to work out a new modus vivendi among themselves.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:I think your comment about the trade routes through Switzerland need some qualification. I have ben looking at a detailed topographical maps and it looks to me like it depends on where you start from.

True, I engaged a bit of hyperbole. I was thinking mostly in terms of the Ring Of Fire series and dirigible routes they are establishing ca 1636. From Germany to Italy, the Ottoman empire, and points east along the silk road all go through/over Swiss cantons.

There are other routes possible, for sure, especially if you're already in the south of France or east of Bohemia, but Switzerland commands the center square.

Maybe if the League collapses, we can route the mandarins escape route through Geneva.. I'm sure that they would be splendid at waving palms over the head of the Sultan in Istanbul... Never mind that they are currently in Chicago...Minor detail. Takk about poetic justice!

Don

I've read many a post of people talking about the Eridani Edict as if it still matters. I would think that one of the biggest consequences of the League's imminent collapse has already happened.

The only thing that gave the Eridani Edict any teeth was the fear of the SLN. Well the GA is well on its way to proving the SLN is a paper tiger so in effect the Eridani Edict is null and void. Sure, the GA will still abide by it but they aren't nearly large enough to police the galaxy (or scare it into submission like the SLN did) which means that as the League unravels we could see a lot more orbital strikes as warlords and tyrants stake out their claims in the ensuing chaos.

DarkEnigma wrote:I've read many a post of people talking about the Eridani Edict as if it still matters. I would think that one of the biggest consequences of the League's imminent collapse has already happened.

Perhaps the "Eridani Edict" has lost its teeth, but the risk of one's neighbors ganging up to do what the SLN no longer can is still going to act as a deterrent.

There's also going to be a lingering "habit" of avoiding a result that upset enough systems that not one of eighteen hundred members vetoed adding the Edict to the Solarian Constitution. Genocidal Orbital Bombardment is NOT going to become common and those who think they can indulge with impunity will discover they're mistaken.

DarkEnigma wrote:I've read many a post of people talking about the Eridani Edict as if it still matters. I would think that one of the biggest consequences of the League's imminent collapse has already happened.

The only thing that gave the Eridani Edict any teeth was the fear of the SLN. Well the GA is well on its way to proving the SLN is a paper tiger so in effect the Eridani Edict is null and void. Sure, the GA will still abide by it but they aren't nearly large enough to police the galaxy (or scare it into submission like the SLN did) which means that as the League unravels we could see a lot more orbital strikes as warlords and tyrants stake out their claims in the ensuing chaos.

There has been a lot of discussion about that here. A large number of posters believe that the Edict will continue to matter to people in the Honorverse. I think RFC even supported that idea, but I can't remember for certain.

DarkEnigma wrote:I've read many a post of people talking about the Eridani Edict as if it still matters. I would think that one of the biggest consequences of the League's imminent collapse has already happened.

The only thing that gave the Eridani Edict any teeth was the fear of the SLN. Well the GA is well on its way to proving the SLN is a paper tiger so in effect the Eridani Edict is null and void. Sure, the GA will still abide by it but they aren't nearly large enough to police the galaxy (or scare it into submission like the SLN did) which means that as the League unravels we could see a lot more orbital strikes as warlords and tyrants stake out their claims in the ensuing chaos.

While not official policy, I doubt that the GA would take kindly to anyone glassing planets for any reason. Maybe they will step up and declare support for the edict or introduce their own, but they have enough combat power to make a sharp point, and no prospective warlord wants to attract the attention of a division of Nikes to his little empire.