Long term consequences of the League's collapse

phillies wrote:Mindful that most of these worlds would build with ISLN technology, the offer of a trade alliance with Manticore and Haven, with tariffs going to support an RMN observer vessel in your system, might be more useful.

In the very short-term, they might buy surplus SLN tech, but anyone witnessing how outclassed SLN tech is by GA tech would opt for surplus GA tech or build export GA tech under license. There may be some Andermani tech in the ex-Solarian marketplace as well.

In the long-term, all of the GA military secrets will be widely dispersed and there sill be military parity for anyone who wishes to pay for it.


[quote-"kzt"]

Weird Harold wrote:You only need something bigger than a Battleship if you plan to be a threat to other navies.[/b] For self-defense, you only need a decent pattern of system defense missiles and a Moriarty or Mycroft equivalent.


No, you can reduce those given time. Fortifications are always going to lose given time and a mobile attacker.[/quote]

No system is perfect and a fleet capable of defeating an attacker strong enough to defeat a Mycroft System Defense Missile emplacement (which need not be "fortifications" since pods and controllers can be moved fairly easily) is not cost effective unless you have an identifiable adversary. What is adequate when your only concern is piracy might not be adequate when faced with an imperialistic aggressor.

Mutual defense treaties with neighbors who already have Navies capable of force projection and/or commerce protection are far cheaper than a navy of your own; That's the reason most SL members don't even have a SDF.

drothgery wrote:If you don't have any ambitions outside your home system, a few score of modern LACs and a decent system defense pod network will stand off anything short of over a squadron of pod-laying wallers. There's a reason why the Haven sector powers' system defense options seem to be devolving to either
1) LACs and pods, with maybe a handful of cruisers or destroyers to be able to run for help (for most systems) OR
2) That and a big, honking fleet of wallers (for critical systems)

I would modify that to: If you don't have any ambitions outside your home system and you do not expect to take offensive actions against a foreign attacker. Sometimes, you do need offensive forces to deter or defeat an enemy even when you don't have foreign ambitions. Dependance on foreign trade (on your own ships or foreign freighters) and possession of a wormhole are two potential reasons why just defending the home system is sometimes not enough.

drothgery wrote:If you don't have any ambitions outside your home system, a few score of modern LACs and a decent system defense pod network will stand off anything short of over a squadron of pod-laying wallers. There's a reason why the Haven sector powers' system defense options seem to be devolving to either
1) LACs and pods, with maybe a handful of cruisers or destroyers to be able to run for help (for most systems) OR
2) That and a big, honking fleet of wallers (for critical systems)

This sound like Janacheck Thinking.

To sum it all up:
I think the real question does come down to the purpose of the navy: to conquor your neihbors, to defend against them or to protect yourself from pirate attacks. Each would require the different mixes of fleet units. In the destabilized league that this argument is taking place, I don't think enough information availible the dynamics of the structure of the league members to tell, but I think OFS goveners and military learders would attempt to create their own por base. Someone else previously mentioned this, and I find myself in agreement. I do think they would fight themselves to exhaustion with their current ships and tech until little is left anymore, much like the Have Civil War after the coup.
This would leave systems poorer for the worse, looking to people to pull them out of debt and despair, and that can lead to peacefull co-existance or all out warefare.

SWM wrote:[I would modify that to: If you don't have any ambitions outside your home system and you do not expect to take offensive actions against a foreign attacker. Sometimes, you do need offensive forces to deter or defeat an enemy even when you don't have foreign ambitions. Dependance on foreign trade (on your own ships or foreign freighters) and possession of a wormhole are two potential reasons why just defending the home system is sometimes not enough.

The best defence is a strong offence. In this case tactical deterant. Having too much for others to overcome.
However, this can lead to a build up of weapons and ships that will lead to war if unchecked. Its a hard call to make

I want to make it clear that I am not criticizing since self defense needs are relavent to the thread.

But I do want to point out as gently as possible that this has turned into a rehash of previous threads with an emphasis on what I will call war gaming for lack of a better term.

What I am hoping for here is some fresh thinking. We all agree that there is indeed an increased risk of war, but applied universally, could it be that this is over simplified? For example, those systems in the Verge who were under the thumb of OFS and the trans stellars could wind up better off because they now can marshal their resourses for the betterment of their people rather than being bled dry by outsiders.

Also, I got a bit of a chuckle out of the initial response to the question as to whether or not the GA should try to take the League's place. The answer was an emphatic no. And yet... is it not true that in offering systems trade agreements, wormhole access and mutual defense treaties that is at least in part what the GA is doing... without the League structure, of course, but still trying to fill the hole that the League's collapse leaves in its wake.

Don

Commodore Oakius wrote:...In the destabilized league that this argument is taking place, ...

I think "long-term consequences" would imply that the destabilization has passed and we're arguing about what the successor states would need for the newly stabilized universe.

Each state should have developed a feel for whether it has neighbors who require an arms race to coexist with or it is in a quieter backwater that only needs perfunctory anti-piracy patrols and commerce protection. And have had plenty of time to sign mutual defense and trade treaties.

For that matter, those systems that would be easy to conquer would have been already conquered before they could build adequate system defense forces.

SWM wrote:

drothgery wrote:If you don't have any ambitions outside your home system, a few score of modern LACs and a decent system defense pod network will stand off anything short of over a squadron of pod-laying wallers. There's a reason why the Haven sector powers' system defense options seem to be devolving to either
1) LACs and pods, with maybe a handful of cruisers or destroyers to be able to run for help (for most systems) OR
2) That and a big, honking fleet of wallers (for critical systems)

I would modify that to: If you don't have any ambitions outside your home system and you do not expect to take offensive actions against a foreign attacker. Sometimes, you do need offensive forces to deter or defeat an enemy even when you don't have foreign ambitions. Dependance on foreign trade (on your own ships or foreign freighters) and possession of a wormhole are two potential reasons why just defending the home system is sometimes not enough.

I guess I should have said 'ambitions or obligations outside your home system'. If you have significant assets outside your home system that need to be protected (wormhole junctions, significant merchant trade, etc.) or have multiple systems to defend then there's probably some crossover point where you stop building up non-hyper-capable defenses and start building a heavy mobile force. And if you have someone you know is hostile and has significant mobile forces (or is trying to acquire them), then obviously you want the capability to hit back. But I don't see every first world star system in the Honorverse going out and building Grayson-level fleets.

n7axw wrote:What I am hoping for here is some fresh thinking. We all agree that there is indeed an increased risk of war, but applied universally, could it be that this is over simplified? For example, those systems in the Verge who were under the thumb of OFS and the trans stellars could wind up better off because they now can marshal their resourses for the betterment of their people rather than being bled dry by outsiders.

I doubt much will change for OFS Protectorates and those systems owned by Transstellars -- either virtually or outright. If anything, the partitioning of OFS into separate warlord pocket-empires may make things worse for Verge worlds.

It is entirely possible that the Transstellars will hire ex-sln forces as mercenaries to establish "corporate-empires" -- quite possibly with MAlign encouragement and/or support.

n7axw wrote:Also, I got a bit of a chuckle out of the initial response to the question as to whether or not the GA should try to take the League's place. The answer was an emphatic no. And yet... is it not true that in offering systems trade agreements, wormhole access and mutual defense treaties that is at least in part what the GA is doing... without the League structure, of course, but still trying to fill the hole that the League's collapse leaves in its wake.

I think the Solarian League can be compared to the Holy Roman Empire, while Manticore is/will be more comparable to Switzerland. The former attempted to Rule most of Europe, the latter merely trades with all of Europe and mediates disputes.

The dissolution of the League will leave several power vacuums that someone has to fill; areas where Manticore already has a dominant position, such as interstellar banking and admiralty courts.

In the short-term, the GA has to offer security and trade to systems in order to convince them to secede from the League. In the long-term, the mutual defense treaties will lapse as individual systems join more local self-defense and trade organizations and Manticore will drop back to its pre-war trade networks.

Except for banking and mediation, Manticore has neither the capacity nor inclination to herd cats into an all encompassing Star Empire. The SEM will grow some, but not a great deal.

Beowulf might well become the center of a new League built up from the nearer remnants of the Old League.

Haven, Anderman, and Maya may well expand some as well as they bump up against ex-OFS satraps and transstellar commercial-empires.

Weird Harold wrote:

n7axw wrote:What I am hoping for here is some fresh thinking. We all agree that there is indeed an increased risk of war, but applied universally, could it be that this is over simplified? For example, those systems in the Verge who were under the thumb of OFS and the trans stellars could wind up better off because they now can marshal their resourses for the betterment of their people rather than being bled dry by outsiders.

I doubt much will change for OFS Protectorates and those systems owned by Transstellars -- either virtually or outright. If anything, the partitioning of OFS into separate warlord pocket-empires may make things worse for Verge worlds.

It is entirely possible that the Transstellars will hire ex-sln forces as mercenaries to establish "corporate-empires" -- quite possibly with MAlign encouragement and/or support.

n7axw wrote:Also, I got a bit of a chuckle out of the initial response to the question as to whether or not the GA should try to take the League's place. The answer was an emphatic no. And yet... is it not true that in offering systems trade agreements, wormhole access and mutual defense treaties that is at least in part what the GA is doing... without the League structure, of course, but still trying to fill the hole that the League's collapse leaves in its wake.

I think the Solarian League can be compared to the Holy Roman Empire, while Manticore is/will be more comparable to Switzerland. The former attempted to Rule most of Europe, the latter merely trades with all of Europe and mediates disputes.

The dissolution of the League will leave several power vacuums that someone has to fill; areas where Manticore already has a dominant position, such as interstellar banking and admiralty courts.

In the short-term, the GA has to offer security and trade to systems in order to convince them to secede from the League. In the long-term, the mutual defense treaties will lapse as individual systems join more local self-defense and trade organizations and Manticore will drop back to its pre-war trade networks.

Except for banking and mediation, Manticore has neither the capacity nor inclination to herd cats into an all encompassing Star Empire. The SEM will grow some, but not a great deal.

Beowulf might well become the center of a new League built up from the nearer remnants of the Old League.

Haven, Anderman, and Maya may well expand some as well as they bump up against ex-OFS satraps and transstellar commercial-empires.

The comparison with Switzerland breaks down fairly quickly I think. For one thing Switzerland's neutrality is rooted in being small and relatively helpless amid larger, more powerful neighbors. Then it became traditional that Switzerland's neutrality was not to be tampered with. The Star Empire, on the other hand, had and probably soon will have again, one of the most efficient industrial complexes in the galaxy, the most capable navy and sits on top of the most valuable junction in human space.

Then there are all of those mutual defense treaties that need to be considered. I agree with you that Manticore is not imperialistic. But those treaties suck Manticore in with a huge swishing sound as those commitments bind her to the security of those systems that take the deal.

Then add in those systems in the vicinity of Talbot watching how the Quadrant works out with its unmistakable message sounding out like a siren call, "come join us and you will be safe. We can protect you. Instead of exploitation, trade and prosperity."

Switzerland's position in the world is in huge part due to her weakness and the fact that as a result she threatens no one, and really has very little for anyone to expropriate. Not so Manticore. I fear that her destiny is as an imperial mistress... whether she wants the role or not.

Don

Look at what has happened on Earth and look at the forces that are going to be in play post-SL.

One scenario would be an alliance that holds many of the Wormholes and that includes the Manticore Junction. SEM plus Beowulf as a hub of much of the trade would be one way. If the Andies join in that new mix then you (with perhaps Matapan and Asgard) make a lobe of the trade network which also runs deep into the former SL since Manticore may create the sutuation where many of the Systems that were under the thumb of OFS for the control and looting of wormhole fees spin off into strong allied partners of Manticore

It starts to look like the British Empire without the colonia statis and imperialism of the original one.

On the other hand, you have trade routes that are going to attract major compitition and military problems because they control access to other places. Think Egypt with the Suez Canal. Think the Ottoman Empire coalescing out of the rubble of earlier near-eastern empires and taking control over the land route to Asia (without the Suez Canal to off set that control or the Russians building a railroad across Siberia)

You could end up with trade based multi-system military powers looking like nerve cells spotted around the Human occupied space as Star Nations develop and concentrate force and power primarily along those major trade routes. Those are not so much spheres of influence and control but more like the Roman Road systems with nodes (the systems with wormholes) being or made to be part of the particular Star Nation that can hold the nodes and the routes open.