Long term consequences of the League's collapse

This is a natural fear of the breakup, but there are examples of the smaller nations thriving. After Alexanders death the kingdom in Egypt did quite well for itself, until right before being sacked by Rome.
The Roman people left in Britain did very well, based on England still being around.
On the other hand, most empires that break up in history do result in troubles and fractures in stability. In the case oh the Solarian League I think that it is going to be both. They will break down into 3 groups:
1) Maya sector, Mesan Alignment and those systems with termini will be fine since they have trade coming in to maintain themselves. (These are those with sufficiant infastructure to maintain them selves.)
2)Those systems that are in proximity to those in the first group. Trade with larger enties and systems with wormhole terminie will help maitain the peace and expand the frontiers of co-operation. Many of these may willingly attached themselves, politically, to one of the first group. (These attachments will be neccasary for defense and trade and will mirror the 4 kingdoms of the broke Greek Empire. However, with Buragoes and Rosack in Maya, and systems with wormhole terminie forming cores for other small polities, I doubt many of them will collapse from their own issues.)
3) The Last and by far largest section is those systmes to far away from the terminie, Maya or the Aligment to be dependant on trade. A few may be successful in holding back the barbarian hordes, how ever the majority of them will collapse into anarachy, like the German tribes the Romans and kept in check during the last few hundred years of their power.

I think those in the 3rd section will create an area and situation similer to that of the old Silisean Confedracy. Too big to ignore with trade, but also too outlaw filled not to police.

One change will be a drastic increase of military spending and military forces deployed. Under the SL, some 2,000 SL systems were content to depend on the SLN for their security. BF's much vaunted active 2,000 SDs and 10,000 SDs in reserve seems enormous but works out to only 1 active SD and 10 reserve SDs per star system. This is trivial by even the pre King Roger standards of the RMN. Based on what the SKM was able to build and deploy, I estimate that the SLN fleet strength required the expenditure of much less than 1% of the GDP of the SL, perhaps even only 1/10 of one percent. Given the inevitable chaos, I expect that everyone who can build and deploy a fleet and system defense forces (missile pods with MDMs make "fixed forts" extremely effective) will do so and they will be willing to spend about 1/10 of their GDP on their military. This will result in each of most populace and industrialized systems having somewhere around a dozen to a gross of SDs or SD(P)s in their fleet for a grand total of perhaps 100,000 SD class combatants roaming the human inhabited galaxy.

We also might see smaller numbers of new ship classes that dwarf the tonnage and combat power of SDs.

namelessfly wrote:One change will be a drastic increase of military spending and military forces deployed. Under the SL, some 2,000 SL systems were content to depend on the SLN for their security. BF's much vaunted active 2,000 SDs and 10,000 SDs in reserve seems enormous but works out to only 1 active SD and 10 reserve SDs per star system. This is trivial by even the pre King Roger standards of the RMN. Based on what the SKM was able to build and deploy, I estimate that the SLN fleet strength required the expenditure of much less than 1% of the GDP of the SL, perhaps even only 1/10 of one percent. Given the inevitable chaos, I expect that everyone who can build and deploy a fleet and system defense forces (missile pods with MDMs make "fixed forts" extremely effective) will do so and they will be willing to spend about 1/10 of their GDP on their military. This will result in each of most populace and industrialized systems having somewhere around a dozen to a gross of SDs or SD(P)s in their fleet for a grand total of perhaps 100,000 SD class combatants roaming the human inhabited galaxy.

We also might see smaller numbers of new ship classes that dwarf the tonnage and combat power of SDs.

This is exactly the scenario that concerns me. Lots of that buildup will be valid with only defensive purposes in mind. But given human nature, there will be those who think, Wouldn't it be nice if WE could be the toughest kid on the block... So you get a scramble to develop new empires some more successful than others, but almost always someone waiting to pull down whoever the king on the hill might be... not a good situation. Dark ages indeed.

Don

namelessfly wrote:
We also might see smaller numbers of new ship classes that dwarf the tonnage and combat power of SDs.

I think you are right. I think Battleship/Dreadnaught varients will popular, while the Battleship and Dreadnaught designs will be pre-eminant on their own, for the wealthier systems, while the poorer systems will attempt at making Pod-CA's, to maintain throw weight shouting distance.
Pod based ships will become the machine guns of the WWI and WWII eras. First only a few had them, then more developed less powerful ones but still effective in their own rights.

namelessfly wrote:BF's much vaunted active 2,000 SDs and 10,000 SDs in reserve seems enormous but works out to only 1 active SD and 10 reserve SDs per star system.

Even worse than that--it is 1 active and 5 reserve SDs per star system.

You're right that this is nothing compared to RMN since the King Roger buildup. But do remember that there are many thousands of systems beyond the Verge that get by just fine with a lot less than that (including Manticore itself for a long time, even though they had a wormhole to protect). If your concern is only piracy, then a division of superdreadnoughts plus some lighter stuff is more than you need. Capital ships are only needed if you are in danger from another star nation. So there could be an increase in military deployment, but only in areas where states decide to embark on expansion. Many areas of the galaxy will probably get along just fine without any increase in military deployment.

SWM wrote: If your concern is only piracy, then a division of superdreadnoughts plus some lighter stuff is more than you need. Capital ships are only needed if you are in danger from another star nation. So there could be an increase in military deployment, but only in areas where states decide to embark on expansion. Many areas of the galaxy will probably get along just fine without any increase in military deployment.

If you're only concerned with piracy, a few modern LAC squadrons and pinnaces for your boarding parties for most purposes, plus a smattering of stealthed system-defense pods and Mycroft Lite to deal with the really well-organized groups of pirates or would-be warlords.

Of course, a well-advertized defense treaty with a GA member means no one with a brain will come near you.

SWM wrote:...If your concern is only piracy, then a division of superdreadnoughts plus some lighter stuff is more than you need. Capital ships are only needed if you are in danger from another star nation. ...

If your concern is only pirates, you don't need superdreadnoughts. You don't need anything bigger than a Battlecruiser, or at worst, a few Battleships.

You only need something bigger than a Battleship if you plan to be a threat to other navies. For self-defense, you only need a decent pattern of system defense missiles and a Moriarty or Mycroft equivalent.

Mindful that most of these worlds would build with ISLN technology, the offer of a trade alliance with Manticore and Haven, with tariffs going to support an RMN observer vessel in your system, might be more useful. There is considerable evidence for minor powers except those with crazy neighbors that spending your money on a standing military is substantially an inadvisable approach to the world, unless you want to end up in a military dictatorship or have a military power of the first rank.

Some readers will point at the Ukrainian decision to abandon nuclear weapons as a good example of he wrong approach.

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:...If your concern is only piracy, then a division of superdreadnoughts plus some lighter stuff is more than you need. Capital ships are only needed if you are in danger from another star nation. ...

If your concern is only pirates, you don't need superdreadnoughts. You don't need anything bigger than a Battlecruiser, or at worst, a few Battleships.

You only need something bigger than a Battleship if you plan to be a threat to other navies. For self-defense, you only need a decent pattern of system defense missiles and a Moriarty or Mycroft equivalent.

Weird Harold wrote:

SWM wrote:...If your concern is only piracy, then a division of superdreadnoughts plus some lighter stuff is more than you need. Capital ships are only needed if you are in danger from another star nation. ...

If your concern is only pirates, you don't need superdreadnoughts. You don't need anything bigger than a Battlecruiser, or at worst, a few Battleships.

If you don't have any ambitions outside your home system, a few score of modern LACs and a decent system defense pod network will stand off anything short of over a squadron of pod-laying wallers. There's a reason why the Haven sector powers' system defense options seem to be devolving to either
1) LACs and pods, with maybe a handful of cruisers or destroyers to be able to run for help (for most systems) OR
2) That and a big, honking fleet of wallers (for critical systems)

Weird Harold wrote:You only need something bigger than a Battleship if you plan to be a threat to other navies.[/b] For self-defense, you only need a decent pattern of system defense missiles and a Moriarty or Mycroft equivalent.

No, you can reduce those given time. Fortifications are always going to lose given time and a mobile attacker.