SPOILER: Post CoG prognostications; ONI & SIS near Talbot

Howdy everybody!

Future prognostications regarding Mesa and other items will be separate threads.

Given the discovery of Lynx back in 1919, there ought to have been plenty of time almost 3 years later to have some ONI and SIS agents on the ground in all the systems surrounding the Talbot Sector, now Quadrant.

Besides the embassy and commercial representatives there should be somebody now sending detailed deep background reports so Governor Estelle Matsuko and Admiral Kumalo should have had some concept of the number or rebellions against the OFS percolating out there, even if they didn't figure Manticore was getting the credit for supporting them thanks to the MAlign.

Once they knew about Mobius, the word should have been sent to watch out, be alert for more signs of revolt, do their best to lower expectations, calm things down or at least delay action, to buy time in other words.

We haven't seen any sign of SIS/ONI agents in action yet, they're supposed to be pretty good, but the series hasn't been about deep planetary intel and won't be, but a little story would be nice.

I expect a GA task force, mainly RHN to reach Talbot soon, to provide more marines and ships Mike needs.

It might include ~16 old SD's of the 237 the RMN has, to provide a scarecrow and training ship for each system in the TQ.

I expect the TQ Guard will soon adopt the 69 FF ships Crandall brought (16 BC's, 12 CA's, 23 CL's and 18 DD's), as better than nothing to help patrol and train since Mike is essentially gone and Kumalo has so little left; though the 48 SD's could also be useful in each system for the same duties as the old RMN SD's, NTM the economic potential; although refitting, repairing, or replacing the escape pods should have been underway in all the fleet's various ship workshops since the battle, as the ships would not be considered space worthy [ready to travel] until all was restored and brought up to 100% [actually better than when they came into Spindle], which if they started back in late January ought have been finished month's ago.

Coming back to Kumalo, what does he have left after Mike left that he can respond to such requests for help?

Perhaps 2-3 dozen old cruisers and destroyers, or about what he had before she arrived?

Since these are legacy ships, their margin over the SLN and FF particularly would be far less than the Mk-16 DDM generation, NTM how much could he send in the first place.

I expect both he and the governor have quickly requested more reinforcements, especially marines, and the RHN may be all that's available right now.

Your contributions will be appreciated,

Looking forward to better ideas.

L

3 years is nothing at all. Any offworlder is going to stick out like a sore thumb, so SIS and ONI have virtually zero useful resources to allocate there to begin with.

Secondly, Manticore was busy fighting a war against Haven, therefor all of their resources were directed in that direction. The Talbott cluster did not even officially join until 1921, and the Queen knows to avoid taking any invasive measures to avoid the appearance of coercion. Once the cluster joined and after the Battle of Monica raised concerns of security on that front, only then would intelligence assets be diverted to that area of space. That is very little time at all for any covert activity to take place.

Just a note: prognostications based on published materials over a month old does not require a spoiler warning.

I don't see why Manticore would concentrate that much effort on sending agents to all those Verge systems. Not that long after the Talbott Cluster joined Manticore, Manticore was back in a fight for its life against Haven. Manticore undoubtedly has agents in the League (we've seen plenty of evidence of that), but it doesn't send agents to every two-bit system near its territory. It just doesn't have the manpower for that.

Note that most of the low-level intelligence Manticore has about small systems and wormhole termini comes from the Merchant Marine, not from official agents.

There is a very large intelligence effort. It's just not paid for by the RMN. Rather, all those Manticore freighters that did regular routes likely had ground contacts, on landing picked up newspapers etc. to advise people at the far end what might be worth hauling, etc. Ensign Pavletic, had she not met her tragic demise, would plausibly have had enormous family contacts in this direction.

Yes, some systems would have been under the thumb of SL corporate looters, so the freighter visit would have been presents for the locals and 'what can we haul for you, given that there is no point in carrying a full load in one of your freighters?'

SWM wrote:I don't see why Manticore would concentrate that much effort on sending agents to all those Verge systems. Not that long after the Talbott Cluster joined Manticore, Manticore was back in a fight for its life against Haven. Manticore undoubtedly has agents in the League (we've seen plenty of evidence of that), but it doesn't send agents to every two-bit system near its territory. It just doesn't have the manpower for that.

Note that most of the low-level intelligence Manticore has about small systems and wormhole termini comes from the Merchant Marine, not from official agents.

phillies wrote:There is a very large intelligence effort. It's just not paid for by the RMN. Rather, all those Manticore freighters that did regular routes likely had ground contacts, on landing picked up newspapers etc. to advise people at the far end what might be worth hauling, etc. Ensign Pavletic, had she not met her tragic demise, would plausibly have had enormous family contacts in this direction.

Yes, some systems would have been under the thumb of SL corporate looters, so the freighter visit would have been presents for the locals and 'what can we haul for you, given that there is no point in carrying a full load in one of your freighters?'
Sure, and that's sort of my point. But Lyonhart is suggesting that ONI should have put actual agents on the ground in those systems, and I disagreed.

SWM wrote:I don't see why Manticore would concentrate that much effort on sending agents to all those Verge systems. Not that long after the Talbott Cluster joined Manticore, Manticore was back in a fight for its life against Haven. Manticore undoubtedly has agents in the League (we've seen plenty of evidence of that), but it doesn't send agents to every two-bit system near its territory. It just doesn't have the manpower for that.

Note that most of the low-level intelligence Manticore has about small systems and wormhole termini comes from the Merchant Marine, not from official agents.

Sure, and that's sort of my point. But Lyonhart was suggesting that ONI should have put actual agents on the ground in those systems as soon as Lynx was discovered, and I disagreed.

In some cases they don't need spies on the ground, not if they simply target the fleet assets. The impression I received was their logistical system only has a short reach in general. If the alliance stuck their main fleet posting, and any base, port or posting, then they would be forced to raid to survive or return to league space. In the verge, the fleet logistical locations are widely known. Also these locations are the best chances of having fleet units present. This makes the number of units locally fewer and scattered. It would make more sense for surviving ships to gather in friendlier territory, for greater security.
while breaking the league control over the area has little military value, they would damage the economyof the league is the transtellars.

Hi SWM,

I'm not talking about that many agents, or that these agents have to be all that well trained or hidden.

One of my Tac officers at ROTC advance camp suggested I consider the intelligence track rather than combat arms like artillery [I was born at Fort Sill], describing how some intel officers weren't hidden, ie were obviously Americans, didn't do anything dangerous but just spent 20 years getting to know the country and people, which was far longer than almost everyone at any embassy, who were too busy anyway, then retire as an light colonel.

Given the couple dozen systems I'm talking about, NTM the infinite possibilities it shouldn't be that hard for some even obvious Manticorans to arrive on planet with a hard luck story and get a good job while keeping a low profile from the SEM if that's their story, or as a commercial rep etc, or openly be an anthropologist or sociologist etc studying local customs or professionals from some medical or other charity etc; NTM all those who can pass for locals to be found among the 3-4 billion SKM citizens, given all the immigrants it has, because somebody has to provide the background so the real secret agents don't screw up when they arrive whenever.

Basically among other types, you need some 'people persons' who can make friends easily without irritating the authorities, ie making the local cops friends as well, and having personal weaknesses like being an easy drunk and passing out quickly so they can search their pockets etc won't hurt their underestimating the person who won't need secret stuff in the first place.

They're just informers not agents, with some direct and indirect communication routes.

Besides the freighter captains and crews, there needs to be 'shoes or sandals on the ground' for background long before James Bond or the Victor and Anton types ever show up, if they're ever required, which is admittedly unlikely.

Although given the RMN/ONI tech advantage we saw of our 2 heroes in "Let's go to Prague", they shouldn't have too many problems, if they're properly briefed.

BTW, that was a plea for another such story.

Sounds like fun, huh.

OTOH, then imagine any Manticoran, so-called agent or not, trying to use phenomenology or something similar on the local internet or among his contacts, without ever getting that specific, to get the locals to reconsider the bona fides of whoever claimed to be representing Manticore.

But after almost 3 years since the Lynx terminus was discovered there should definitely be at least a few SEM people on every planet within 2-300 LY of the terminus and the TQ quietly watching, while learning more about the locals.

L


[quote="SWM"]**quote="phillies"**There is a very large intelligence effort. It's just not paid for by the RMN. Rather, all those Manticore freighters that did regular routes likely had ground contacts, on landing picked up newspapers etc. to advise people at the far end what might be worth hauling, etc. Ensign Pavletic, had she not met her tragic demise, would plausibly have had enormous family contacts in this direction.

Yes, some systems would have been under the thumb of SL corporate looters, so the freighter visit would have been presents for the locals and 'what can we haul for you, given that there is no point in carrying a full load in one of your freighters?'
Sure, and that's sort of my point. But Lyonheart is suggesting that ONI should have put actual agents on the ground in those systems, and I disagreed.
[quote="SWM"]I don't see why Manticore would concentrate that much effort on sending agents to all those Verge systems. Not that long after the Talbott Cluster joined Manticore, Manticore was back in a fight for its life against Haven. Manticore undoubtedly has agents in the League (we've seen plenty of evidence of that), but it doesn't send agents to every two-bit system near its territory. It just doesn't have the manpower for that.

Note that most of the low-level intelligence Manticore has about small systems and wormhole termini comes from the Merchant Marine, not from official agents.[/quote]**/quote**
Sure, and that's sort of my point. But Lyonhart was suggesting that ONI should have put actual agents on the ground in those systems as soon as Lynx was discovered, and I disagreed.[/quote]

Lyonheart, there's probably a thousand planets within 200-300 light-years of Lynx. You want agents on all of them?

Hi SWM,

Of course, why not?

Even if a thousand persons are sent, we're talking about 1 out of 3-4 million, which I think the SEM can afford it.

To be honest I suspect all of the systems already have 'agents' of the simplest types already there [or should], ie simply collecting open information, making friends, while noting any subtexts etc.

I wouldn't be too surprised if Manticore didn't have a university or institute dedicated [with crown $upport] to cataloging details of every system quite thoroughly and with scholastic rigor with plenty of grant$ [possibly titled the Wormhole Information Institute (pronounced 'why') or "WU or WHJU"], which is an aid for SIS and ONI great data collection even if no agents are directly involved at that level, though it might be an excellent ad hoc cover.

Again lots of story potential.

The priority for the second level I had in mind would be all those nearby protectorates or clients like Saltash, that could boil over as too many have for centuries, causing problems for the TS, now the TQ.

The third level would be serious agents, collecting or tracking someone like 'Firebrand', though arranging a ONI CIT team is practically impossible, its fun to think about.

L

SWM wrote:Lyonheart, there's probably a thousand planets within 200-300 light-years of Lynx. You want agents on all of them?