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GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets

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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by Weird Harold   » Sat May 17, 2014 6:33 am

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Weird Harold wrote:The reference I'm looking for apparently doesn't use the codename when referring to Haven's hidden R&D facility.


Found it! :D :D :D

The Detweilers apparently do NOT know where Bolthole is, or even who is running it.

Storm From The Shadows
Chapter 19
wrote:
"I'd say that follows logically, Father," Daniel [Detweiler] agreed. "Haven comes closest to matching the Manties' capabilities already. Their education system sucks, but they're fixing that. In fact, let's be fair, the main thing that was wrong with it to begin with wasn't that they didn't have at least a core cadre of competent teachers and scientists. It was that the Legislaturalists had managed to hobble the general system with so much political indoctrination and water it down with so much 'feel-good' insistence on passing students regardless of their actual academic achievements, that the ratio of competent researchers to useless drones was so far lower than Manticore's. Research priorities tended to be assigned on the basis of who the researchers' patrons were, rather than any impartial analysis of potential benefits, too. And the fact that they'd made so little investment in basic infrastructure improvement meant even the competent researchers they had didn't have the resources or the sophisticated industrial platform Manticore had, either, regardless of who their patrons might've been. But they always had a bigger talent pool than most people would have thought looking at what they managed to accomplish, and whoever's running their R and D now is obviously making the best possible use of the pool they have.


Ibid wrote: "I think I would, in their place," Benjamin said before Daniel could answer. "On the other hand, let's say they do make that demand. Do you really think even Manticore could ultimately keep Haven from managing a secret rearmament program somewhere? I'm not talking about the short term. But as time passed, I'm sure someone who's already figured out how to build a completely secret shipyard complex and R and D center once could figure out how to do it again. It would still be the best-case scenario from our perspective, though, since I don't think it's very likely Haven could manage to pull it off before we were ready. And I imagine Manticore would probably accept at least a modest build-down in its own active wallers once it had disarmed Haven."


Granted that takes a bit of inference, but Manticore knew Shannon Forraker was in charge almost as soon as they knew Bolthole existed.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by TheMonster   » Mon May 19, 2014 12:34 am

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lyonheart wrote:Regarding the loss of the SEM and Grayson's infrastructure, we have the substitute of Beowulf and Haven making up much of that gap faster than anyone in Manticore thought possible before the GA, with Invictus type SDP's being built at Bolthole then sent to Beowulf to install the Keyhole platforms and Apollo MDM's and gear etc within a couple of years, while Beowulf will produce Apollo's several month's [sic] earlier [mid-summer] than the pessimistic year-end projection QE III made in her HD broadcast in MoH,
Not quite. The new Bolthole production will be sent to Manticore to be mated with the Keyhole and Apollo production from Beowulf and shipped through the wormhole. There is probably some systems-integration expertise the RMN and GSN have that the BSDF doesn't have. Besides, the astrographic position of the MWJ makes it the most logical place for the GA to have its main base of operations.
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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets : possible spoiler
Post by lyonheart   » Mon May 19, 2014 12:21 pm

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Hi TheMonster,

Quite right, I kneel corrected. ;)

HH's mood at the end of CoG implies either all went well at Beowulf or the SL hasn't struck yet, in which case it's toast due to all the Mycroft's and Apollo's its now producing.

I suspect the former rather than the latter, but what else do you see happening before we get to Mike again?

L


TheMonster wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Regarding the loss of the SEM and Grayson's infrastructure, we have the substitute of Beowulf and Haven making up much of that gap faster than anyone in Manticore thought possible before the GA, with Invictus type SDP's being built at Bolthole then sent to Beowulf to install the Keyhole platforms and Apollo MDM's and gear etc within a couple of years, while Beowulf will produce Apollo's several month's [sic] earlier [mid-summer] than the pessimistic year-end projection QE III made in her HD broadcast in MoH,
Not quite. The new Bolthole production will be sent to Manticore to be mated with the Keyhole and Apollo production from Beowulf and shipped through the wormhole. There is probably some systems-integration expertise the RMN and GSN have that the BSDF doesn't have. Besides, the astrographic position of the MWJ makes it the most logical place for the GA to have its main base of operations.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by namelessfly   » Mon May 19, 2014 1:15 pm

namelessfly

I think the opposite istrue.

In SFtS, Adm Henke conductedan exercise to employ Apollo as a rapid response recon system to ID ships for an attack. Using this technique to very rapidly investigate beforetheycanengage the spider drive is probably the best hope that the GA has to defend itself.


n7axw wrote:I'm in agreement with Alizon about MAlign being the major threat. The difficulty is finding the Alignment. What that means is that the war against the Alignment will be a war of intelligence rather than a primarily a naval one until that is solved.

Freezing large numbers of SDPs around Alliance systems will not increase the security of those systems. As Mike Henke pointed out, a pair of Nikes could have caused the damage suffered in the Yawatta Strike. The issue is detecting and identifying the enemy in time to engage.

That being the case, I think that leaving behind smaller defensive forces at home while sending out enough ships to deal with the League plus a reserve ready force uncommitted but available to be used at need would make the most sense.

Finally, I wonder what will be the bottom line intel haul from COG. I know that conventional wisdom is pessemistic on this, but I wonder. Houdini was far too complicated not to suffer the consequences of Murphy's law. Zilwicki and Cachat already understand that people are being evacuated or eliminated. You have McBride now rid of his Gaul. Mark my words, something else is going to turn up, perhaps someone who was supposed to be evacuated, perhaps something as simple as a missed computer, but something will turn up for Cachat/Zilwicke to get their teeth into. We just don't know what yet.

Don
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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by n7axw   » Mon May 19, 2014 2:20 pm

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namelessfly wrote:I think the opposite istrue.

In SFtS, Adm Henke conductedan exercise to employ Apollo as a rapid response recon system to ID ships for an attack. Using this technique to very rapidly investigate beforetheycanengage the spider drive is probably the best hope that the GA has to defend itself.


n7axw wrote:I'm in agreement with Alizon about MAlign being the major threat. The difficulty is finding the Alignment. What that means is that the war against the Alignment will be a war of intelligence rather than a primarily a naval one until that is solved.

Freezing large numbers of SDPs around Alliance systems will not increase the security of those systems. As Mike Henke pointed out, a pair of Nikes could have caused the damage suffered in the Yawatta Strike. The issue is detecting and identifying the enemy in time to engage.

That being the case, I think that leaving behind smaller defensive forces at home while sending out enough ships to deal with the League plus a reserve ready force uncommitted but available to be used at need would make the most sense.

Finally, I wonder what will be the bottom line intel haul from COG. I know that conventional wisdom is pessemistic on this, but I wonder. Houdini was far too complicated not to suffer the consequences of Murphy's law. Zilwicki and Cachat already understand that people are being evacuated or eliminated. You have McBride now rid of his Gaul. Mark my words, something else is going to turn up, perhaps someone who was supposed to be evacuated, perhaps something as simple as a missed computer, but something will turn up for Cachat/Zilwicke to get their teeth into. We just don't know what yet.

Don


I'm not quite sure what you are driving at here. As I see the text evidence, the primary threat is the stealth. If I'm right, successfully engaging MAlign targets from beyond their range to reply shouldn't be difficult if the stealth issue is solved.

To add to my comment, IIRC, in MOH when Elizabeth gives her speech in the aftermath of the Yawatta strike, she comments that naval intelligence believes that they have identified the hyper footprints of the attackers which should mean that it would be more difficult on next round for an attack to get through without being engaged. The logical response would be to flood the area between detected hyper footprint and system with ghostrider drones although it's not clear to me that ghost rider can find a stealthed MAlignment ship.

At this point I'm not sure that either streak or spider provide any real advantage against a battlefleet of SDps if the SDPs can find their targets.

Do you have info that would imply to the contrary?

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by namelessfly   » Mon May 19, 2014 3:01 pm

namelessfly

Detecting a hyper footprint establishes a location.

Pinpointing the spiderdrive ships with enough precision to target them then requires either:

a ship which has to hyper in at the approximate location then maneuver under impeller drive at a few hundred gees to get within sensor range to search.

Recon drones to maneuver under impeller drive at a few thousand gees to get within sensor range to search.

Both of these options require a rather prolonged response time.

Since the locus of the spider drive ship is 1/2aT^2, the difficulty of finding the spider drive ship increases with the square of the response time. The time lag of a recon drone or hyper capable combatant might make localizing to attack impossible.

In contrast, a pod full of Apollo missiles can close with the hyper footprint location at about 100,000 gees. Response time is only a few minutes, call it 500 seconds. Maximum evasion volume of spider drive ship is then somewhere around:

1/2 x 1,000 m/s^2 x (500s)^2 = 125,000 km.

At this close a range, the linked sensors of an Apollo cluster (with specialized recon version of the attack missiles?) can localize the location for a followup attack.
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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by kzt   » Mon May 19, 2014 5:31 pm

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The critical time is the time the hyper footprint takes to travel to the big sensors (like 8-12 hours) and the time that it takes to get a response team to the site of the footprint. (1-4 hours)

Every other time increment is tiny compared to those.
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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon May 19, 2014 5:58 pm

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namelessfly wrote:Detecting a hyper footprint establishes a location.

Pinpointing the spiderdrive ships with enough precision to target them then requires either:

a ship which has to hyper in at the approximate location then maneuver under impeller drive at a few hundred gees to get within sensor range to search.

Recon drones to maneuver under impeller drive at a few thousand gees to get within sensor range to search.

Both of these options require a rather prolonged response time.

Since the locus of the spider drive ship is 1/2aT^2, the difficulty of finding the spider drive ship increases with the square of the response time. The time lag of a recon drone or hyper capable combatant might make localizing to attack impossible.

In contrast, a pod full of Apollo missiles can close with the hyper footprint location at about 100,000 gees. Response time is only a few minutes, call it 500 seconds. Maximum evasion volume of spider drive ship is then somewhere around:

1/2 x 1,000 m/s^2 x (500s)^2 = 125,000 km.

At this close a range, the linked sensors of an Apollo cluster (with specialized recon version of the attack missiles?) can localize the location for a followup attack.
But doesn't that require an Apollo capable ship within less than 500 lightseconds (150 million km) of emergence? (That's the range Honor's final shots at the BoM achieved by 'cheating' through a Hermes Buoy)

There's almost no chance anybody will be even remotely that close. Assuming that the Sharks' hyper signature was the one the Silver Cepheids responded to they came in a light month out. At that distance it would have taken the FTL footprint over 11 hours to reach the system arrays. Placing ships (or even Moriarty nodes) every 500 lightseconds for a lightmonth would take a ridiculous number of ships; north of 26 million. (That's rounded down and also ignores packing problems or voids; it's just roughly how many 500 lightsecond radius spheres it takes to equal the volume of a lightmonth radius sphere)

But unless you wanted them firing automatically you can't even seed the area with equally vast numbers of Moriarty and Apollo Pods, because that same multi-hour signal delay would defeat any attempt to centralize the monitoring and timely response.


I think you're going to have to wait for the signal to come in and then saturate the zone the ship could have moved to within the hours it'll take to get reaction forces out to where a remote hyper footprint was detected. That's still a vast area; but orders of magnitude smaller the entire light month+ around the star system.
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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by Weird Harold   » Mon May 19, 2014 6:08 pm

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namelessfly wrote:Pinpointing the spiderdrive ships with enough precision to target them then requires either:


I suspect that since the spider drive interacts with the Alpha Wall and FTL Comm works by reading ripples along the Alpha wall that GA forces with FTL Comm capability are closer to detecting Spider Drives in operation than the MAlign thinks. All it would take is someone who knows about the Spider Drive noticing "static" in the FTL Comm and making the connection.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: GA Strategy, Tactics and Targets
Post by kzt   » Mon May 19, 2014 6:13 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:I think you're going to have to wait for the signal to come in and then saturate the zone the ship could have moved to within the hours it'll take to get reaction forces out to where a remote hyper footprint was detected. That's still a vast area; but orders of magnitude smaller the entire light month+ around the star system.

This has a chance of working if your opponent is an idiot.

If they are not an idiot you'll detect a large series of footprints in rapid sequence as MAN ships bounce in and out, with at least some created by MAN conventional ships that just leave in hyper. How many RMN ships does it take to effective respond to 50 different hyper footprints in 24 hours, at a range of 1 to 3 light-months roughly evenly spread over a sphere? Most of these are nothing by the time they arrive, #37 is 12 Lennie SDs.
How many ships will it take to effectively respond to each of these footprints?? How many ships do they have on standby? If they find them, can their forces handle 12 SDs?
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