I am unconvinced that the number of missile pods claimed by Harrington in ART was not an exageration. HH was using numerous deceptions to mislead and intimidate the SLN fleet. RFC has stated that the missile and pod loud out of shipsis becoming as expensive as she ships. Queen Elizebeth in her speech after OB assures us that the RMN ships have full magazines and the colliers are loaded,but claims no more. If the RMN and GSN have fewer than 500 SD(P)s after BoM and OB, I would not expect them to have more than a few thousand pods per ship.
That gives the RMN and GSN about one million pods or 10,000 missiles.
How many missiles Haven has after BoM is a matter for conjecture, but probably not a large multiple of the load out for their existing ships.
Most SL systems do not build freighters much less warships, but even Shell and some Verge systems have significant orbital industries. If left intact, those industries can be used to build shipyards and missile production lines faster than Manticore and Grayson can rebuild.
The GA has to retain a massive reserve ofshipsand missiles to deal with the Malign.
My point here is that the GA would have every reason to employ Soft Power to persuade SL systems to make peace because conquest would be uncertain and expensive.
lyonheart wrote:Hi Namelessfly,
Obviously if the GA has any brains they aren't going to follow your scenario.
NTM your assumptions were mixing quite a few apples and oranges.
Permit me to disagree with your assumptions.
From CoS there were then only 1784 member systems while the protectorates don't have much infrastructure, so lets assume around 1800 members about 3 years later; from the pearls most SL members aren't that interested in space infrastructure etc [such as building their own freighters, which are pretty easy], since relatively few take that much advantage of it.
Given the GA is seeking lots of support why would they start out by trashing every SL member's system infrastructure?
The Maya sector was rather unusual in being very heavily industrialized, so expecting all SL members to be so is another error.
Haven had ~135 systems before the second war, and has added almost a dozen more as a result, so its closer to 150 than 100.
The 4 BC's destroyed in Saltash evidently could have been destroyed with half as many missiles, NTM it is hardly going to be typical for every system or protectorate when the FF averages only 3 ships of all types per system after accounting for 15% refits etc.
If a BC takes ~60 missiles, a CA around 30, a CL about 20, and a DD only 10; then the average for the FF assuming equal numbers for all classes would be about 30 each or ~90 missiles per system assuming all three were on station in each system, which obviously won't be the case.
Do you want to agree even 1.5 FF ships per system might be high?
If Saltash were the average system, destroying its infrastructure would take less than a dozen missiles, ie only ~100 missiles per protectorate if the GA were so stupid in so many ways as to destroy such non-threatening infrastructure in the first place.
A quarter of the EC voted with Beowulf, so they are hardly hostile to its and the GA's arguments and philosophy, while given the smaller populations of the shells etc could represent a third of the member systems which might soon become GA members.
The shells, where the vast majority of member systems exist, are rather opposed to the preferential treatment given the core worlds at their expense, many have only been kept in line by the BF and its massive reserve, so I doubt too many of them will have their infrastructure targeted as well.
So the actual GA initial target list might be less than 100-200 systems for all the SLN bases and hostile SDF's.
The core 'old league' systems are only ~80 systems that includes Beowulf and several about to follow her, and according to the pearls have only LAC's and no military R&D, being completely reliant on the SLN, so they can be largely ignored as an immediate threat aside from SLN bases, and the rather rare SLN shipyard [only ~6 or so can build SD's, taking ~3 years], so even assuming 20-30% have military targets, missile expenditure could be less than 20,000 MDM's for the whole core, depending on how all of the BF and FF reserve is destroyed, ie with single contact nukes possibly delivered by modified RD platforms to reduce the expense since they're helpless targets.
Regarding missile numbers, HH told Filaretta the quarter million plus he could see were less than 10% of the pods available to her, ie not those in the RHN or used in Lacoon 1 etc for something probably exceeding 3 million pods averaging close to 10 missiles per pod for something probably in excess of 30 million missiles before adding non-pod missiles, without getting into probable RHN daily production rates, or Beowulf starting up Apollo in in a couple of month's.
Total initial MDM expenditure could be as low as 250-500,000 not 10 million.
Regarding the Cutworm raids, HH only had less than a single SDP squadron, which they operated as pairs for the ~11 raids.
So assuming there were 200 primary target systems that are initially attacked by 50 TF's with at least 2 SDP's each, it might only take 4 month's to eradicate the SL's effective naval forces, while if the GA can spare a hundred more SDP's out of 900+ SDP's [soon to be over 1200] it might take only 2 month's.
Lnamelessfly wrote:ROFLMAO!
Now, sticking to the Honorverse, it remains theoretically possible for the SLN to recover. Others have expressed extreme optimism regarding the capability of the GA to destroy the SLN's infrastructure, but let us consider the numbers.
The SL has about 2,000 member systems including probably 1,000 densely populated, technologically advanced, and industrialized core systems. In contrast, Haven is what, 100 systems?
From Saltash we get a sense of how many missiles are needed to takedown even a backwater system but without trashing infrastructure. Five DDs launched four, triple salvos totallying 5 x 4 x 3 x 12 = 720 missiles.
This is a bit shy of 1,000 missiles. Taking out industrial infrastructure will increase the missile expenditure as will having to engage moderately effective defenses including Technodyne system defense missile pods.
Assume only 10,000 missiles expended per core system. That is a total of 10 million missiles or the load out of 2,000 SD(P)s.
The GA has the missile stockpile needed, barely.
Now consider time. During the Cutworm raids in AAC, Honor was trashing may be one system per month using the rough equivalent of an SD(P) squadron.
If the GA assigns 50 squadrons to raiding SL systems, then they take out 50 systems per month.
In 20 months, they can take down the SL.
Problem is, take out the industrial infrastructure after you have taken out interstellar commerce and these SL systems will collapse economically and socially. The same Potterry Barn rules that applied in Iraq will apply with the SL. You Break it, You Buy It. How will the GA provide security, governance and sustenance to these SL systems? How can they do this whhen they need to cover themselves from the Malign?