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Defeating a numerically superior enemy.

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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by n7axw   » Sat May 10, 2014 8:55 pm

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SYED wrote:THe republic needs not fight on the offensive all the time. We know at some pont, the empire will be forced to send their navy against the navy of god, while potentially costly, we believe that charis will emerge the winer. WIth no naval opposition, it would allow the empire to consider going after the temple it self. and with the republic as an ally, they would have a far closer baser which to set out from.
THey need not even attack the temple it self, simply eliminate zion the city. With no city to support the temple, the church would need to pay a fortume to simply keep running the temple as there is no local infrastructure left.
THe church is draining its fund and assets quickly, the more money they cost, the more untenable their position.



I am unsure of how costly the naval confrontation will be for Charis. If ICN is spearheaded by King Harolds, most of the cost will be absorbed by the bad guys. Also remember that the only substantial fleet left is Dohlars. The COGA is focused on the land war right now, not building galleons to make up thelr losses.

Eliminate Zion? How? Depending on what you have in mind, that could mean lots of civilian casualties that EOC probably won't be willing to inflict.

Finally, I believe that EOC must end up in control of the temple to deal with whatever is in the basement. That seems to me to be a non-negtiable bottom line.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by SYED   » Mon May 12, 2014 12:44 am

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We know that there are different factions in dohlar, So i wonder is this internal conflic that sure to pop up. The army and navy are opposed, the church is against thirsk.

WIth the army being so damaged, they might demand the navy supply people and material to help defend the border. THis would deplete the navy leaving it vulnerable. Both thirsk and hte church would be against this.
THe inquisition might even have orders that the navy is to be preserved even if dohlar burns to the ground, the thing is the church will want to remove thirsk as command as they believe their secular commanders have failed them.
The army has long been against thirsk and his modern navy, so i see them pulling to drain away his assets in order to securing the frontier. THe king of dohlar might cornered by the church will want to preserve his kingdom, and the navy is still his even if it is part if not the whole of the navy of god.
If the navy is restricted to the bay, then the army could justifuy shipping their supplies to the border. also to have sent an army so quickly, they had to have drawn upon existing military supplies, which would have been in naval hands.
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by Randomiser   » Mon May 12, 2014 5:31 am

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I don't think we have really seen much sign of a game plan that goes beyond, 'survive, innovate, and kick butt' from the EoC. I think they need to develop, or we need to see, such a game plan soon. It certainly cannot be 'conquer the planet' so I think that leaves 'Take Zion and Reform the vicarate' or 'Defeat the church forces in detail so comprehensively the Church has to sue for peace' or 'Ruin the church economically so it can't pay for the war and its effort collapses'.

All have problems. 2 is drawn out and uncertain, given the huge population. 3, well, in the end totalitarian governments which are ideological movements supported by 95%+ of the population don't have to pay for stuff that comes from within their territory. So I think it has to be Take Zion, whatever the uncertainties. (Of course Duchairn might conceivably stage a coup then sue for peace, but that's not a game plan for the EoC)
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by lyonheart   » Mon May 12, 2014 7:34 am

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Hi MWadwell,

Given most of those people are serfs or slaves, I suspect most are going to be praying to have the alliance forces pass nearby so they can be freed and follow them.

Imagine Sherman's march on steroids, since the distance to Zion is over a dozen times as far, while I expect the armies to be much bigger as the modern RSA grows in strength.

Depending on when the 11 M96 rifle lines come on line, the EoC could produce some 250-300,000 by November '97, another 460,000 in '98, plus some 40,000 trapdoor versions if they have only one line operating for 200 days [to June-early July?], enough to reequip the whole of the ICA in theater, NTM the marines with the trapdoors, including the 50+K that left at the end of September; enabling them all to turn over their early Mahnfrayns to the RSA, which combined with likely captures from the IHA plus indigenous production could mean the RSA approaches having around a million men armed with rifles by the end of the year.

Since the AoJ had a third of its infantry armed with smooth-bore muskets, and the other third with arbalests, while 47% of Dohlar's infantry firearms were also smooth-bores adds another ~55,000 other projectile weapons, the total might actually exceed a million armed men.

We still don't know how the RSA is provided with field artillery, but the captured and ex-ICA cannon should help in comparison with the ICA, even only a couple 12-pounders per day over the last year would permit every new division to have at least a battalion on the ICA standard, the captured making it two.

Nonetheless such figures ought to eliminate the last of the internal TL opposition, while enabling the best armed to join the ICA in advancing into neighboring territory.

Meanwhile the Go4 will be trying to create and arm new armies after the IHA's are blunted and beaten, if not destroyed.

Humans being so variegated, there may be some serfs that prefer to remain serfs to freedom as the alliances insists, but I'll bet the vast majority will eagerly support the alliance, and being the 'sons of Martha' more than the 'sons of Mary' are probably far more knowledgeable about the local terrain than the minute aristocracy that might be the remaining opposition since most supporters of the temple will understandably flee, to easily frustrate nearly all guerrilla or partisan operations.

There may be some TL clergy remaining behind that would be more effective, but how long that remains so with SNARC sensors to ferret out serious problems if there aren't HumInt sources makes that a minor problem.

Given the Levelers described in MTaT, the various Border States could be threatened with their own rebellions that have avoided being used by the inquisition again.

Disarmed by Magwair, the nobles etc will have little choice but to flee.

The same goes for Dohlar and Silkiah, where the elimination of the local army or police encourages those with grievances to finally act on them.

The temple lands have serfs too, whatever they're called, do any doubt after seeing how corrupt the Knights of the Temple Lands are, that many if not most (though perhaps a smaller fraction than the BS etc) won't join the liberating alliance?

Compared to most invading armies, the liberating alliance will have far less worries regarding partisan type activities.

The current goal is finding out what's in the basement.

Hopefully HFQ will deal with that.

See how positive I am? ;)

L


MWadwell wrote:
octavian30 wrote:**quote="Larry"**
that while such a strategy can and should allow Siddermark to stabilize and regain much of it's territory and bring control to much of the Dohlar and even neutrality in Silkah. I don't think it can allow much room against the Desnarian or South Harchongese empires. Nor will it be effect against the border states or the rest of the main continent. There is simply too much land and too many people to wade through in these areas. At that point the EOC is overextended and vulnerable to supply line strikes as well as rear area partisan attacks and defeat in detail counter attacks by numerically superior (and equipped with improving weapons tech) AOG forces. EOC can only advance to the point that there is friendly territory behind it and contested or enemy land before it. At that point, even with better weapons and training it's forces must stop and assume a defensive stance.

Larry**/quote**

On the contrary with their huge intel advantage the EOC should continue to advance into enemy territory taking the war to them and destroying an neutralizing the ability of the church to make war at all.
Unlike Hitler's and Napoleon's attacks on Russia the EOC can maintain supply and support along the coasts. Once the Desnarians are rounded up and Eastshire envelops Aivastyn and forces that army's surrender while the same happens in the north to Guarnak then next target should be the Harchong army - currently strung out along the the Holy Langhorne Canal.
Strikes at each end of this line by both EOC field armies at the start of spring should result in the complete disintagration of the Harchong army


I agree with Larry - until the alliance put together by the Temple start to disintergrate, there is a limit to what the EOC can achieve.

First point, it is a battle army - not an army of occupation. It's manpower is too small to occupy large populations (in the hundreds of millions), and still maintain a force on the front line.

So taking (and holding) large tracts of population/land is out. (Of course, taking and holding individual cities, towns, fords, canal locks, etc is O.K.)


The next point, is that the EOC intel coverage is "spotty". While snarcs can be placed everywhere, they are only as useful as what they are tasked to do (remember the surprise generated when wagons started blowing up, and the amount of missing gunpowder was discovered?) While missing an army is different to missing an individual, I just want to point out that the EOC isn't "All Seeing".

The last point, is that not all intel can be used. Not all EOC commanders are in the inner circle, and even those that are cannot always act on what they know, without some justification (i.e. hunches only work so often, and friends of Sensei's can only pop up so often before questions start to be asked about them).


I agree that the EOC has a huge advantage in training, equipment, doctrine, etc - but there are limits to what it can do.

And conquoring the rest of the planet might be one of them.... ;)
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by SYED   » Tue May 13, 2014 1:18 am

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I am betting that the inquition has amassed as big a force as possible, as far forward on the canal system as possible. Harchong, temple huard, and everything they could from the border states. If only to force the republic by holding them up.
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by tootall   » Thu May 15, 2014 2:19 pm

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Looking at the map-EoC and it's allies, are about to get defensible borders.

If the Church continues to attack, it risks continuing defeat in detail. BUT, if they pull back from Siddermark, to their own borders- and fight defensively, their manpower advantages and improving armaments will present real problems to attacking armies.
If I recall, all the army of Old Charis is committed, and all of the army in Chisolm shipped out too. (There's a finite Charisian armed forces limit- and they seem to be close to that).
One thing to cut supply lines, to force the Church to attack fixed positions, entirely another when Charis has those extended supply lines and must attack a more concentrated defence. Will be interesting.
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by lyonheart   » Thu May 15, 2014 5:28 pm

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Hi Tootall,

Yup, the combat section of the ICA has left Chisholm, but the various training brigades etc remain to train all the volunteers signing up, so wait a year.

Of the combat troops, those 50,000+ that left at the end of September have not been seen since; given the season that's one reason why the Salthar canal is even more interesting at this time.

I'm not sure what you mean by defensible borders when dealing on a continental scale theater of war, aside from Desnar being held by the North Watch mountains in that rare isthmus, but one reason RFC has decried predictions of WW1 type trenches on the western front north to south etc is the sheer numbers required versus all the room to maneuver makes such strategic or tactical stasis impossible.

Given the disarmed Border States, I believe the alliance will advance through them and Dohlar, besides liberating Silkiah to Zion, with BGV landing at Port Home or going up the Zion River to the temple to secure the western temple lands.

We have no textev for any further Go4 armies after the IHA is dispensed with, and while there may be local militias, there really isn't anything that can stop the alliance at this point.

L


tootall wrote:Looking at the map-EoC and it's allies, are about to get defensible borders.

If the Church continues to attack, it risks continuing defeat in detail. BUT, if they pull back from Siddermark, to their own borders- and fight defensively, their manpower advantages and improving armaments will present real problems to attacking armies.
If I recall, all the army of Old Charis is committed, and all of the army in Chisolm shipped out too. (There's a finite Charisian armed forces limit- and they seem to be close to that).
One thing to cut supply lines, to force the Church to attack fixed positions, entirely another when Charis has those extended supply lines and must attack a more concentrated defence. Will be interesting.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by laz   » Thu May 15, 2014 6:55 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi Tootall,

Given the disarmed Border States, I believe the alliance will advance through them and Dohlar, besides liberating Silkiah to Zion, with BGV landing at Port Home or going up the Zion River to the temple to secure the western temple lands.


will Silkiah want to be liberated? Yes they where making a lot of money but we have no idea how joe citizen feels about the war.
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by SYED   » Fri May 16, 2014 1:11 am

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Just like how the church used the canal system to expand, the republic and imperial forces will use the canal to advance into the border lands. THe thing is if the church can control their retreat and fall back, and damage the canal, so slow down any invasion buying gtime.
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Re: Defeating a numerically superior enemy.
Post by tootall   » Fri May 16, 2014 4:33 pm

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lyonheart wrote:

I'm not sure what you mean by defensible borders


All the island areas are "defensible".
When Green Valley takes Guarnak, Hildermoss becomes "defensible" because of better logistics, movement advantages, and tactics. I'm not saying they can hold it- but they can certainly defeat any Church force that comes to them. I think the same is going to be true in Cliff Peak. I think the same will be true in the South March lands-(Thesmar up to the mountain chain at Riverfork.)

That's what I meant by defensible borders. (and those "defensible borders" do not retake all of Siddermark that has been lost)
Attacking into the border states-and into Dohlar and into Silkah seems difficult. The church gets to play defense- supply lines and manpower reserves are closer. The church forces are dug in with their next generation weapons. And the Church's manpower advantage comes into play. The Empire's supply lines are less secure. Their mobility advantage is reduced because they are attacking particlar targets.
So, I interested to see how "Runsfor" handles these offensive problems in the next book.
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