Thanks for the reminder regarding the Mahrosa canal.
But I still think the Salthar canal is far more probable.
According to the online MTaT map, its about 650 miles long to the river I suppose might be the Hankey with roughly another 550 miles to the Gulf of Dohlar, for around 1200 miles; much shorter than circumnavigating Howard but almost 3 times as long as the Salthar-Silk Town canal (~470 miles).
Besides the distance we have no clue how many locks are on it compared to just the two on the Salthar.
Furthermore its unlikely that it would have a boom since the odds of Desnar being able to drain the canal if an ironclad did steam into it are rather high.
Then there's the problem of protecting and maintaining it in the face of local opposition, let alone trying to defend even a river canal line ~1200 miles long; whereas Silkiah is far more friendly to both the republic and Charis, NTM the North Watch mountains have only 4-5 passes besides the narrow coasts for a far narrower defensive perimeter.
We still have the last 50,000+ ICA troops (2 divisions, a mounted brigade, an artillery regiment, scout snipers, engineers, etc) that left Chisholm back in September are overdue to be heard from since they should have arrived from late-November on, even if they went directly to Sekyr Island, Eralth, or Seine Island etc; possibly finally taking Fort Darymahn.
It is curious that Earl High Mount's voyage took only a little longer, ~85 days, [August 6 of 13 chapters to October 19 of 23]; while Symkyn's was ~74, from mi-June to early September, and was "slightly ahead of schedule" in mid August, despite ostensibly traveling far less than half the distance; ~4450 miles without any reduction for latitude, versus 9830.
Granted the wind and wave are not to be relied upon, but Symkyn certainly should have arrived sooner than ~74 days when most voyages are at least 2-3 times faster on Safehold.
While getting to Thesmar shouldn't take more than an extra 5day or two than SC, they and their horses should have had a month or more to recover from the voyage before starting operations soon, hopefully before the Go4 know they're there.
L
laz wrote:lyonheart wrote:Hi Randomiser,
Kudos for your typical excellent analysis.
I concur its probably a boom, and given Barns' last known operations area was the Thesmar Gulf of Mathyas to prevent anyone advancing further up the seawater section of the eastern Salthar canal.
A boom is a tactic to be expected if the CoGA can no longer use the canal, a result of the ICN blockade.
It's possible this could be in the gulf of Dohlar, or up some river in Siddarmark, but Silkiah makes the most sense to me.
Destroying a coastal battery seems unlikely given the likely cannon being only 25 pounders, easily defeated or deflected by the ironclad's armor.
Admiral Shain talking about ops in the gulf
“Eventually,” the admiral said instead, looking around the table once more, “we’ll move the blockade inside Mahrosa Bay itself. With any luck, we’ll be able to shut down the east end of the Mahrosa Canal completely. I’d like to land raiding parties to blow up the locks, but Mahrosa’s a major town with a garrison to match, so I’ll settle for putting them out of action with Captain Abernethy’s angle-guns.”
Excerpt From: David Weber. “Like a Mighty Army.” iBooks. https://itun.es/us/MTdhP.l
Thats my opinion and i am sticking to it. altho i expect the plan changes
from simple destruction to something more interesting. what bothers me
is why bother with a raiding party if the angle guns can do the same job.
laz
laz
