Hi Jonathan_S,
Excellent points!
The PRHN intercept of Helen Zilwicki was largely due to rather exceptional intelligence, the specific kind that's not going to be easily had right after the SLN raiders show up.
It's going to take a while, weeks if not month's, to monitor the system, find ways to get to the planet without attracting lethally dangerous attention, unless the raiders brought slow tramp freighters or db's to pretend to be media ships [oh, wait the GA knows all about that trick] etc with them to act as spies which would delay things ever further, all the while intercepting HD broadcasts etc regarding all the other SLN failures and disasters that occurred during their transit and scouting periods that might affect their willingness to commit suicide.
It may be the FF BC's that are sent out for commerce raiding become the last remnants of the SLN, if they don't attack, because almost everybody back in the SL is destroyed or surrenders in 6 month's to a year.
Guys, the basic premises of trying to fix the SLN founder in the face of what we do know, so this thread is again pointless.
Even including SDF shipyards, from my previous post, there are probably less than 150-300 SLN targets worth attacking in the first place, including all the military shipyards in the SL; very easy meat for approximately a dozen TF's for the old league core and another 12-20 TG's going after the FF in the shells, verge and protectorates.
The GA has over a thousand SDP's (1200+ by fall), well over a hundred CLAC's (2-300?) besides 2000 plus other warships.
Given MDM's, has anyone figured out an exchange rate that somehow permits the SLN to close with the GA, let alone occasionally win one?
If an old DD with 100 MDM's (in 10 tractored pods) can easily destroy a BC of ten times its tonnage, or 5-6 DD's at 40 M km or beyond, at what point does the SLN begin to think its going to win?
Right now the casualty exchange rate is well in excess of a thousand to one in favor of the GA, and no suggestion I've seen seriously challenges that.
Keep in mind, the GA has with its old SD's about as many SD's as BF has left in commission; then after Beowulf, I'm sure its SDP's alone will outnumber what's left of BF's before they're all destroyed rather soon after.
Before the SLN can start making plans to refit with the wonderful new tech it doesn't know it needs, it needs a base safe from the GA, ie at least one, but no one has bothered to point where it might be located and why the Ga can't destroy it.
If BSDF intelligence is still operating, the GA will know about the commerce raiding strategy long before the raiders reach GA territory.
Given how long it will take to recall and assemble them, then arm them with Cataphracts besides assembling their supporting supply TF's, and sending them all off, there could be plenty of time to alert and prepare all the GA systems.
Remember too that the MAlg expects them to fail, having probably war-gamed this scenario repeatedly.
Because they want the FF BC's and CA's away from the SL to give the RF its shot; the opening offer of protection after the foolish mandarins have sent off the best most modern powerful part of the SLN at the worst possible time.
Outside of Omosupe Quartermain, I don't expect the mandarins to last much longer; within 6-12 month's or possibly less, ie when the public realizes what fools they've been after the SLN is destroyed and there's no one to protect them any more; what's likely to happen won't be pretty.
The GA general assault on SLN bases may even happen before the commerce raiders or at least some of them leave in the first place.
Between Moriarty's, Mycroft's, lots of system defense pods and LAC's, NTM almost 20 years experience and training involving far tougher commerce raiding; the SLN FF raiders will be so far behind the learning curve, their casualties will be militarily prohibitive by any rational measure, though they won't know that, since communication even with db's with other TF's or TG's will take too long and the MAlg intends for them to be as isolated and ignorant as possible so they are wiped out easily.
Think about it; the BF will be effectively destroyed, including the reserve and shipyards (~7?) within a couple of weeks to a month on the outside when the GA attacks, probably not long after Beowulf.
FF bases and shipyards in the old league will also be hit in that time plus hostile SDF's and their shipyards etc within 6 month's, while smaller TG's hit FF bases in the shells, verge, and protectorates.
So what will be left of the SLN in a year?
Not much at all.
The SLN is still grossly ignorant of all the GA weapons, which the MAlg has been trying to replicate for a decade with poor or slow success, so the idea the SL can in a year or two come up with something new, then make millions is just bizarre.
All it appears to know at the moment is that it needs longer ranged missiles, ie DDM's with around a 30 M km range; which is so pathetic compared to the multi armed juggernaut they face including the LAC's which despite all of HH's testimony regarding them, hasn't apparently moved the SLN HQ at all.
We've all seen the cartoon of the man falling off the 100 story building saying "so far so good" or "Ignorance is bliss" etc, yet that's pretty much the attitude we've seen so far of the SLN senior staff compared to what it should be.
Its too late for the SLN to make such suggested ridiculous phased improvements when it will never have the time for such nonsense because 4 or 5 years is simply far too late.
Do you seriously think all our GA admiral heroes are going sit back and let the SLN try to close the gap?
One reason HH mentioned the LAC's, demonstrated the FTL.com, etc is because she knows the SLN doesn't have time to do anything about the GA's tech edge.
Again RFC has made this point repeatedly, so the idea of the SLN somehow recovering and eventually overcoming the GA boggles the mind.
L
Jonathan_S wrote:Alizon wrote:And my impression of Hyperspace intercepts isn't that they can't be done may be a bit overstated. It's more difficult due to limited scanner range and engagement ranges are going to be tighter which tends to work against Manties with their longer range missiles.
However, there is evidence to suggest, primarily in Honor Amongst Enemies that vessels who really work at it can accomplish them with a little bit of luck. If it's reasonably possible to find a ship or two moving through hyper then how much easier would it be for a fleet or a convoy?
That intercept was helped by
1) having a lot of ships spread out - the Peeps had what at least 3 or 4 BC and some CAs (probably at least as many) strung out at max sensor range from each other.
2) Special geography - the Selker Rift had unusually clear sensor conditions
and a rogue wave that required relatively slow transits.
So with a significant number of ships you could spread out and keep watch over a much larger than normal zone
and your targets weren't going to blow by you at 0.6c so you could use your superior acceleration to overtake them (admittedly, by running an increased risk of having too much speed to dodge should the rogue wave pop up unexpectedly)
I think hyper intercepts are, normally, way worse than Vegas odds.
But there may be other risky Selker-like areas where the odds are much more in the raider's favor. We may yet see combat in hyper; but I won't be holding my breath.