Hello Larry,
Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite CG beverage on the forum.
Rules are indeed meant to be broken, especially when there are few rules in war, though logistics are paramount, ie "the art of the possible" as Desnar learned AGAIN, incredibly as it seems.
Given the ICA's firepower and command, control, and communication [C^3] advantages, NTM greater experience with modern weapons and tactics; open battle favors them even outnumbered several times by their Go4 foes.
When DE had more rifles than the whole AoS, and EHM's doubled that,plus their artillery superiority and superior strategy and tactics, the resulting victory was not in doubt.
But it won't just be BGV.
Earlier posts in other threads have pointed out the disparity between Kaitswyrth's possible 9-12,000 rifles left [he lost >19,000] and Symkyn's ~56,000 means odds of ~9-2 to 6-1; while the artillery odds are even more astronomical thanks to all the mortars.
Ir's March already and the Daivyn is 800-900 miles south of of the Northland Gap [~13-14 degrees of latitude] so Symkyn doesn't need the High Hallow horses or caribou etc.
From the textev Kaitswyrth's first real fortification is ~100 miles west of the forest, while the rest and his HQ is in Aivahstyn, ie a small force with modern weapons divided into even more easily digested 'bites'.
It may be the evidence that Maigwair has found indicates the AAR lied about what Kaitswyrth managed to do, and he may been in even more dire straits because Clyntahn hasn't told the others just how bad the situation is [so no replacement rifles were sent or not enough], which may be useful in loosening his hands when the time comes.
Given Symkyn's firepower and the fact he's considered the third best ICA general, I expect he'll cut Kaitswyrth from his supplies, NTM avoid attacking his prepared defenses until he's destroyed enough an assault will succeed, so he might destroy an AoG army before BGV.
The Go4 have yet to recognise the virtue of finer organization, including corps and battalions etc, yet trying to supply the IHA in one huge lump is too awkward to believe.
I've suggested 4 sub army groups of ~400,000 men: North, Central, South, and Reserve- possibly second South; of which Central could be sent overland to the Charayn canal rather soon.
But by the time it got there Earl High Mount's scout snipers could reach the Fairmyn river to blockade future supplies while the remaining ironclads from SC destroy their barge convoy then on the Daivyn while Symkyn and High Mount then finish off the survivors who managed to hold onto their weapons without drowning etc.
It will take at least another 2 month's before the northern IHA can even reach its Theater Of Operations [TOO] probably three, permitting BGV and Symkyn to repeat the same tactic of cutting it off from its supply line [Langhorne canal] again without much heavy fighting.
This puts BGV near Salyk where he can quickly be transported to Port Harbor and the Zion River in a couple of 5days sometime in June-July, while all his winter gear means he can handle staying over the next winter as needed.
The other 2 IHA are by then too far south to stop Symkyn from heading further west down the Langhorne canal etc, while collapsing all the border state nations along the way.
DE could outmaneuver Rychtyr by cutting his supply line forcing him to retreat back into Dohlar without an assault.
OTOH, we have yet to see what the inner circle has done to weaponize their signal rocket, so I suspect RFC is waiting for a propitious moment such as a meeting engagement battle to demonstrate what massed Katusha/Hale type rockets with dynamite (rockets are far slower accelerators than cannon) or picric acid warheads can do to an army stuck on a road, or simply attempting to move into its battle position while shorter ranged mortars hammer those closer...
More snippets please,
L
Larry wrote:Tonto Silerheels wrote:Miniscule spoilers
I was musing yesterday about how a force would undertake to defeat a numerically superior enemy, <SNIP> a rule of thumb regarding how many forces it takes to defeat how many. If I remember correctly there were a number of rules-of-three. <Snip>
~Tonto
First thought. Beware rules of thumb, while useful for general calculations they can mislead you in actual battle. For a better thought on how to defeat a numerically superior enemy it's important to consider actual dispositions of forces and goals both tactical and strategic. Consider for example irregular warfare where the goal is to use guerrilla operations to sabotage vital communications and logistical targets. The force ratios here are quite high in balance yet a small force can selectively handicap a much larger force. The commerce raiding that Charis should be familiar with is a good start for portions of the strategy. Also the winter campaign that the EOC forces in northern Siddermark are about to conduct will utilize the element of tactical surprise to act as a force multiplier which may or may not have been written on the list from the book you quote. Charisian forces have also been good so far at Defensive engagement and bringing local superiority of force to bear as well as exploit attacks. What they have NOT done (and are smart to have avoided) are headlong attacks into enemy defenses. Being conscious that it's better doctrine and weapons superiority give it advantages in mobility and force concentration, the EOC forces will continue to fight in flank or weak spot concentration style attacks. Hit the enemy were he isn't strong and inflict maximum damage then withdraw while building strong defense points on major choke holds will be their MO for the time being. Polish off minor players and use the AOG's tactical weakness in coordinating such a huge behemoth of forces, by pinching and defeating in detail AOG army columns and groups that get seperated from main unit concentrations will be the signature of the campaign in Summer coming. Because of Merlin and the drone skimmers relaying tactical intelligence Charis should achieve high success rates at this. The problem is that while such a strategy can and should allow Siddermark to stabilize and regain much of it's territory and bring control to much of the Dohlar and even neutrality in Silkah. I don't think it can allow much room against the Desnarian or South Harchongese empires. Nor will it be effect against the border states or the rest of the main continent. There is simply too much land and too many people to wade through in these areas. At that point the EOC is overextended and vulnerable to supply line strikes as well as rear area partisan attacks and defeat in detail counter attacks by numerically superior (and equipped with improving weapons tech) AOG forces. EOC can only advance to the point that there is friendly territory behind it and contested or enemy land before it. At that point, even with better weapons and training it's forces must stop and assume a defensive stance.
Larry
