Is Duchairn conspiring to overthrow Clyntahn?

n7axw wrote:

Icarium wrote:Yes. Everyone could be lying and all information we've been given, including inner thoughts, could be wrong and misdirection.

But how likely is that? Occam's Razor and all.

But then, I find the intense need to make Aivah super special instead of simply an uber-smart woman boggling, though.

Sometimes Occam's razor is over rated... or at least not very much fun...

Don

And with the number of stones/bullet/... RFC throw at it, it is rather dull.

I just think it's something that can't be discussed. Once you start creating things out of whole cloth and fall back on 'it could be, if the author is lying to us' then ... well.

I mean, I could create a theory that everything we know is a lie, that Merlin's memories were tampered in the PICA before he woke up (same as OWL) and that Langhorne was a good guy, the angel guise was meant to be taken down and meant as a social construct for a time. I could explain Scheuller's methods as him thinking no one would actually use them. After all, we don't know what happened before the first chapter and 'Real' Nimue's death and when she woke up. It could all be tampering, we don't really know what happened in the past! She could be ruining the real plan!*

... but how do you discuss this other than 'really weird idea'? You can't, there's no actual support for it.

*Not an actual theory of mine.

First of all, Greetings to everybody;
while I have been following this forum for some years, I never saw a need to poke my nose in, until today (since I enjoy reading the books, but do not like to speculate).

The below subject has come up several times, and it simply makes me uncomfortable. The arguments are quite logical; the textev shows quite clearly that Phandys is the hidden weapon on Duchairn's side .... and yet ... yet... it is TOOO obvious.

Folks, since when has our esteemed author been this obvious? He loves surprising us. Take the case of the Valet of the Earl of Corys; his deception was revealed at the last minute, so what makes you think "this" cover-up would be revealed to us so early? I simply can't believe it. I am impatiently waiting for the resolution of the puzzle.

Thanks for all the entertaining / enlightening speculations and posts.

DrakBibliophile wrote:Yes, he's conspiring.

There's a lot of little things and they start with the letter/package that Heyward ? Wylsynn gave him.

.......

Oh, I've long suspected that it was not an accident that Phandys discovered the escape plan of the Wylsynn brothers.

IMO Phandys is a former colleague of Heyward Wylsynn and they set up the situation where Heyward killed his brother and fought the arresting Temple guards.

Heyward knew (among other things) that Phandys would make sure Heyward would die in the fight (ie not captured).

IMO part of the information in the letter/package is info concerning Phandys that informed Duchairn that Phandys can be trusted.

In short IMO Duchairn and Phandys are working to destroy Clyntahn *and* those within the Inquisition who are loyal to Clyntahn.

.........

Phandys may have enough contacts with the Temple Guard to gain assistance from within the Guard that bringing Maigwair into the conspiracy might not be necessary.

...........

Welcome into the light, KokoAp. Enjoy the first digital adult beverage on me. After that, there are plenty of us here to contribute.

I happen to agree with your assessment. Suppose the Duchairn plot line is more complex than it seems. Yes, he is indeed planning to retake the CoGA from Clyntahn. Then what? That's the twist no one seems to be discussing.

Charis launched the Safehold reformation based on the abuses of the currupt within the Church. This was true of our own Reformation lauched by Luther. What followed in our own time line? The Counter Reformation. The Catholic Church responded to the charges in various ways.

I happen to think that the Refromation and Counter Reformation was a broader argument about the moral direction not only of the Catholic Church but of all of Europe. The same thing needs to happen on Safehold. Safehold's citizens believe in their faith. They need to resolve their disputes or face continual war until there simply is no more ability to fight. One hopes that the initial violence of the Sword of Schueler will mitigate future violence and Safehold's Counter Reformation can be voiced with much more calm deliberation.

Now, suppose between the time of Clyntahn's fall and the Milennial Return of the AAs when the CoGA launches its own Counter Reformation, Phandys and the remainder of Aivah's group begin to reveal themselves. Not sure what they will reveal, but it's motives might not be completely congruent with Charis'. Perhaps they become another group with tech advantages that side predominantly with the CoGA. They do not want open warfare, but do believe in the stabilizing force that is the CoGA.

What will the next story arc look like in that context?

KokoAp wrote:First of all, Greetings to everybody;
while I have been following this forum for some years, I never saw a need to poke my nose in, until today (since I enjoy reading the books, but do not like to speculate).

The below subject has come up several times, and it simply makes me uncomfortable. The arguments are quite logical; the textev shows quite clearly that Phandys is the hidden weapon on Duchairn's side .... and yet ... yet... it is TOOO obvious.

Folks, since when has our esteemed author been this obvious? He loves surprising us. Take the case of the Valet of the Earl of Corys; his deception was revealed at the last minute, so what makes you think "this" cover-up would be revealed to us so early? I simply can't believe it. I am impatiently waiting for the resolution of the puzzle.

Thanks for all the entertaining / enlightening speculations and posts.

Good points. David Weber has fooled us before and likely will fool us again.

As for Rhobair Seablanket (the valet in question), some of us suspected that "he wasn't what he seemed to be" so the "surprise" was more conformation of what we suspected.

IMO David Weber often gives us hints (like IMO he did with Seablanket) of future plot lines but very often we fail to spot them until "after the fact".

One big surprise that he gave us without any apparent hints was when he nuked McQueen in the Honorverse.

KokoAp wrote:First of all, Greetings to everybody;
while I have been following this forum for some years, I never saw a need to poke my nose in, until today (since I enjoy reading the books, but do not like to speculate).

The below subject has come up several times, and it simply makes me uncomfortable. The arguments are quite logical; the textev shows quite clearly that Phandys is the hidden weapon on Duchairn's side .... and yet ... yet... it is TOOO obvious.

Folks, since when has our esteemed author been this obvious? He loves surprising us. Take the case of the Valet of the Earl of Corys; his deception was revealed at the last minute, so what makes you think "this" cover-up would be revealed to us so early? I simply can't believe it. I am impatiently waiting for the resolution of the puzzle.

Thanks for all the entertaining / enlightening speculations and posts.

DrakBibliophile wrote:Yes, he's conspiring.

There's a lot of little things and they start with the letter/package that Heyward ? Wylsynn gave him.

.......

Oh, I've long suspected that it was not an accident that Phandys discovered the escape plan of the Wylsynn brothers.

IMO Phandys is a former colleague of Heyward Wylsynn and they set up the situation where Heyward killed his brother and fought the arresting Temple guards.

Heyward knew (among other things) that Phandys would make sure Heyward would die in the fight (ie not captured).

IMO part of the information in the letter/package is info concerning Phandys that informed Duchairn that Phandys can be trusted.

In short IMO Duchairn and Phandys are working to destroy Clyntahn *and* those within the Inquisition who are loyal to Clyntahn.

.........

Phandys may have enough contacts with the Temple Guard to gain assistance from within the Guard that bringing Maigwair into the conspiracy might not be necessary.

...........

PeterZ wrote:I happen to agree with your assessment. Suppose the Duchairn plot line is more complex than it seems. Yes, he is indeed planning to retake the CoGA from Clyntahn. Then what? That's the twist no one seems to be discussing.

Actually, some of us have discussed it. My own suggestion, a while back, is that Duchairn would become an even more potent foe of the Church of Charis than Clyntahn is. The fact that he is a Reformist gives him credibility among the same people that Charis has been courting, and his belief in the unity of the Church means he is just as opposed to schism as Clyntahn. At least, that's how I see it. I believe I first suggested that over a year ago.

SWM wrote:

PeterZ wrote:I happen to agree with your assessment. Suppose the Duchairn plot line is more complex than it seems. Yes, he is indeed planning to retake the CoGA from Clyntahn. Then what? That's the twist no one seems to be discussing.

Actually, some of us have discussed it. My own suggestion, a while back, is that Duchairn would become an even more potent foe of the Church of Charis than Clyntahn is. The fact that he is a Reformist gives him credibility among the same people that Charis has been courting, and his belief in the unity of the Church means he is just as opposed to schism as Clyntahn. At least, that's how I see it. I believe I first suggested that over a year ago.

Yes, I recall that. I suppose I should have limited my comment to this thread.

Let's extrapolate, shall we?

Duchairn is the tougher nut than Clyuntahn and is thoroughly wedded to the idea of reuniting the CoGA. A cold war scenario perhaps?

One way that might work is for the CoGA to enter into negotiations and give Charis all they have publically stated they want from the CoGA. The CoC is recognized but the CoGA reserves the right to disagree vehemently with any CoC policy. That results in a Cold War where the secular nations are free to engage Charis in whatever way they see fit.

Does Siddermark continue the war with the CoGA and insist Charis support it? Does Siddrmark settle for a truce with the CoGA but continue against Desnair to settle past grievances? Will proxy wars begin as smaller nations wish to align with Charis but are prevented by foreign sponsored internal discord? What combination of these issues manifest?

Whatever the combination arise, Duchairn uses all his moral authority to keep Charis from engaging directly while his proxies chip away at Charisian support from other Safehold nations. While that happens, he builds up his tech base.

Pretty soon the battle is much more evenly matched than it is at present.

I see a number of issues with your speculation, Peter. But I am planning to deal with this subject in greater depth later on.

So I will restrict myself to a question. RFC has said that that this phase of the story arc will wrap up fairly soon, perhaps with one possibly two more books. Then the Safehold story takes a break and picks up later in which the theme of the confrontation with the Gbaba takes center stage. It seems to me, at least, that your speculation stretches out the confrontation between Charis and the COGA further than that...or am I wrong?

Don

Only in degree, Don. RFC mentioned that the next story arc dealt with the Great Revalation/OBS and culminated with the conflict against the Gbaba.

Methinks there is quit a bit to entertain and educate before the a Good Guys return to space. The G4's demise might still leave the OBS present, you know. I suspect that's s where we are headed.

n7axw wrote:I see a number of issues with your speculation, Peter. But I am planning to deal with this subject in greater depth later on.

So I will restrict myself to a question. RFC has said that that this phase of the story arc will wrap up fairly soon, perhaps with one possibly two more books. Then the Safehold story takes a break and picks up later in which the theme of the confrontation with the Gbaba takes center stage. It seems to me, at least, that your speculation stretches out the confrontation between Charis and the COGA further than that...or am I wrong?

Don

n7axw wrote:Let’s explore the pros and cons of whether or not Duchairn is conspiring against Clyntahn.

(SNIP)

Of course he is.

Just the same as Clyntahn is conspiring against Duchairn!

The Temple is an incredibly political place, with plots, sub plots, treachery, etc. occuring hourly!

Duchain is trying to pin the blame for the recent military losses on Clyntahn, Clyntahn is trying to blame someone else for the murder of the vicahs, etc.


As to Clyntahn conspiring against Duchairn, he almost certainly is planning to replace him, just in case.

Similarly, Duchairn is almost certainly conspiring to replace Clyntahn - just in case it looks as if it is needed....