Honorverse series, the future..?

The E wrote:

Norm.bone wrote:Let's assume that secession vote passes, and that the Mandrins' plans to slip a fleet into Beowulf's orbitals and replace the government (ie " One OFS # 6 special, with fries") with one that will repudiate the alliance were to succeed. The Terminus fleet isn't in time, Moriarty isn't enough.

Your whole thought experiment falls apart at this stage though. There is no way that an SLN force can get into Beowulf orbit unopposed.

Maybe, but I'm not sure. In ART, Honor is concerned that the Terminus fleet is too far away from the planet, and that Mycroft and the system pods aren't fully online.

Chapter 33, Honor wonders:

"I agree that once Mycroft’s up and running, anybody who goes after Beowulf is going to get bloodied in a hurry,” she said now. “I guess my main concerns are that Mycroft isn’t a visible deterrent, especially since we’re keeping it so completely under wraps till it’s actually up and running, and, secondly, that it isn’t up and running yet and won’t be for at least another couple of months. Maybe longer."

Chapter 35, SLN officers Teague and Al-fanudahi are discussing:

“You mean Kingsford and Bernard are thinking in terms of pouncing on Beowulf—coming straight in across the hyper limit and going flat out for the planet—before any Manty forces at the terminus can intervene?”

“I think that’s about the only thing they could be thinking of,” al-Fanudahi said. “I don’t know if it would work, but assuming Beowulf hasn’t been completely surrounded by new and nasty missile pods, a big enough force of superdreadnoughts, especially with enough of the new Technodyne missile pods, probably could fight its way in through the BSDF and the fixed defenses. And once they controlled the planetary orbitals, they’d be justified under interstellar law in demanding the system’s surrender.”

It seems to me there is a window of vulnerability there. It probably won't execute as well as the Mandrins expect, but I don't think it'll go as optimistically as Uncle Jaques and Hamish hope either. Anything less than a complete repulse of the SLN would give them the fig leaf they need to trash Beowulf.

Norm.bone wrote:It seems to me there is a window of vulnerability there. It probably won't execute as well as the Mandrins expect, but I don't think it'll go as optimistically as Uncle Jaques and Hamish hope either. Anything less than a complete repulse of the SLN would give them the fig leaf they need to trash Beowulf.

I tend to agree with you, Norm; or at least the MWW has set the story up to let us think there is some risk of this happening.

However, I rather think Alice Truman (or whoever is in command at present) out at the Junction has probably had her astrogators working overtime (and perhaps practicing) micro-jumps in Hyper to various locations in Beowulf space--just in case.

Another thought--I wonder if Beowulf might have invited other nearby SDF's in the area to visit--just as observers, of course--to document what is going on in their neighborhood....

We shall see--eventually.

ksandgren wrote:

The E wrote:Your whole thought experiment falls apart at this stage though. There is no way that an SLN force can get into Beowulf orbit unopposed.

That was the plan the SL Navy had in the last mainline book AND that was Honor's worry about keeping the fleet at the terminus instead of at Beowolf. IF they get Mycroft up in time and with the possibility of microjumping to the vicinity of the planet it may be(is) beatable - but it is also a plan that is possible to succeed at, especially if Mycroft isn't fully up when the SL comes calling. They can't hold the planet long but they can have a hey day of publicity if Manticore tries to take a league founding state away from the SL by force.

I believe RFC clarified in a later post here that Honor's concern was primarily about the perception that Beowulf wasn't well defended.

That while the terminus fleet was almost certainly going to be able to jump in behind any attacking fleet and shred them with Apollo MDM fire, that the SLN might well not realize that and launch the attack anyway. Feed another helpless fleet into a meat grinder.


And given the inevitable stern-chase geometer it would be very unlikely that the SLN units could be convinced to surrender before blowing many of them away. To be in a position to force a surrender, before the firing starts, you've really got to have something that the SLN would recognize as a major blocking force positioned between them and their target. They're unlikely to realize just how deadly SD(P)s accelerating up their tail from 60-70 million km back really are.

I brought this subject up in an earlier thread. I thought at that time and still think that the best solution would be to position a couple of task forces in stealth on the likeliest approaches to the planet or perhaps even in hyper and wait out either the arrival of the sollies or the plebisite.

The reason for not having a fleet in orbit around the planet is political to avoid the appearance of putting pressure on the voters prior to the plebisite. This accomplishes that and avoids risk that sollies would have opportunity to trash orbital infrastructure.

Don

I think Honor will retire with Hamish and the rest of the Alexander Harrington's to Grayson. After Beowulf is sorted out.

Michelle Henke will take over the lead female role. Ship combat. Etc...

There will be intrigue and perhaps some kind of forgotten MAlignment association found on Grayson etc...

Firebrand will find out that the Manty's have gone with his plans and will either start taking heat from the MA perhaps leading to another defection? Or will have to use this to start promising the moon, next system....

Norm.bone wrote:It seems to me there is a window of vulnerability there. It probably won't execute as well as the Mandrins expect, but I don't think it'll go as optimistically as Uncle Jaques and Hamish hope either. Anything less than a complete repulse of the SLN would give them the fig leaf they need to trash Beowulf.

The way the Mandarins were talking, it's unlikely they'll get anything put together before the plebiscite, and after it, the window is closed, because there will be no problem with GA wallers in Beowulf orbit while Mycroft is being built and tested.

If the attack comes before the plebiscite, then the SLN will still almost certainly get blown away, but in the process the BSDF could take heavy casualties. I still think one of the best things the RMN could do to address that is to have a bunch of its people who have parents or grandparents from Beowulf, and can therefore claim citizenship, put on BSDF uniforms and man a couple of SD(P)s with their smart paint reconfigured to designate them as BSDF vessels, hanging out in an asteroid belt stealthed with their wedges on standby, ready to be used if needed to provide the KH2 fire control for the system-defense pods (both transplanted from MBS and those new ones coming off the Beowulf production lines).

[Grr] Limit on nested quotes. [Grr]

TheMonster wrote:

crewdude48 wrote:And Honor said that if Raging Justice crossed into Manty space, they would consider themselves at war.

In fact, they already did consider it (emphasis mine):

Elizabeth III of Manticore wrote:If the Solarian League wants a war, the Solarian League will have one. If that is the choice the League makes, then the war which began at New Tuscany and continued at Spindle will resume right here.

So the best Filareta could have done was to abort his attack without crossing the hyper limit, thereby suspending the hostilities that had already begun. By crossing the limit after her explicit warning, he confirmed that a state of war existed, and threw away the SLN's last chance to de-escalate the situation without some formal acknowledgement by the League that it was at fault.

The anti-Beowulf vote in the Chamber of Stars doesn't seem to have been affected by the niggling detail of a lack of any formal declaration of war by either side.

roseandheather wrote: Basically this. The war against the Solarian League began in New Tuscany when Byng slaughtered Chatterjee's destroyers. Whether or not Rajampet crossed the hyper limit wouldn't have changed that - it just would have kept that particular fleet from falling to a really cranky Grand Alliance.

Sure it would. The Manties didn't want a war with the Sollies, and had tried repeatedly to persuade the Mandarins to resolve the crisis, while realizing that that probably wasn't going to happen. "If" it became unavoidable, Elizabeth was back-dating the start to the first overt act.

Just because someone commits what can be characterized as an 'act of war' doesn't mean that the war inevitably follows. For instance, USS Reuben James (sunk by Germany), USS Liberty (sunk by Israel), USS Pueblo (captured by North Korea).

Beowolf as an advanced planet is sure to have a detection grid, which gives them some time to bolster the defences.
I have a bad feeling that the league in their belief that beowolf is vulnerable, will attempt a quatity battle to their orbit. I am betting they would be most of the capital ships in rge league core, so none activly able to deal with problems.

Hi Bill Woods,

The USS Liberty was not sunk by Israel, though it suffered very heavy casualties; 34 killed, 171 wounded.

L

Bill Woods wrote:[Grr] Limit on nested quotes. [Grr]

TheMonster wrote:**quote="crewdude48"**And Honor said that if Raging Justice crossed into Manty space, they would consider themselves at war.[/quote]In fact, they already did consider it ([b]emphasis[/b] mine): [quote="Elizabeth III of Manticore"]
If the Solarian League wants a war, the Solarian League will have one. If that is the choice the League makes, then the war which began at New Tuscany and continued at Spindle will resume right here.

So the best Filareta could have done was to abort his attack without crossing the hyper limit, thereby suspending the hostilities that had already begun. By crossing the limit after her explicit warning, he confirmed that a state of war existed, and threw away the SLN's last chance to de-escalate the situation without some formal acknowledgement by the League that it was at fault.

The anti-Beowulf vote in the Chamber of Stars doesn't seem to have been affected by the niggling detail of a lack of any formal declaration of war by either side.

**quote="roseandheather"** Basically this. The war against the Solarian League began in New Tuscany when Byng slaughtered Chatterjee's destroyers. Whether or not Rajampet crossed the hyper limit wouldn't have changed that - it just would have kept that particular fleet from falling to a really cranky Grand Alliance.[/quote] Sure it would. The Manties didn't want a war with the Sollies, and had tried repeatedly to persuade the Mandarins to resolve the crisis, while realizing that that probably wasn't going to happen. "If" it became unavoidable, Elizabeth was back-dating the start to the first overt act.

Just because someone commits what can be characterized as an 'act of war' doesn't mean that the war inevitably follows. For instance, USS Reuben James (sunk by Germany), USS Liberty (sunk by Israel), USS Pueblo (captured by North Korea).**/quote**

Hi TheMoster,

I suspect the time involved for the SLN to assemble their larger fleet will allow the Mycroft to come on line.

Even if it doesn't, as others have noted, Truman is probably on a near hair trigger response.

However, given the SLN's tradition of very slow entries back into normal space and concerns about their navigation might mean they might stop short at a nearby system (which could easily be picketed by the GA) to get a better fix for their approach as the PRHN did in Icarus at Basilisk.

The GA might not just picket the possible systems in normal space but the lower alpha hyperspace bands, which would also enable the FTL.com to send messages further and faster so the warning ship might not have to travel as far as the SLN might think to reach other hyper pickets around Beowulf, quite aside from the relatively modern GA DD or CL being able to travel much faster than the reserve BF SD's in hyper in the first place (3000C vs 2200C?), possibly providing several hours of warning time, if the wayside system is ~7 LY from Beowulf etc.

Their slow reentry into normal space also provides plenty of reaction time for Admiral Truman (~10 minutes to travel only 1M km, ~30 minutes for 10 M km), but I wouldn't be surprised if the BSDF that has been exercising with the RMN for decades if not centuries has a few surprises of its own.

If the BSDF were to tractor ~580 MDM pods to each of its 36 SD's (for 20,880 pods) besides more in orbit, as Mike did at Spindle, for a total of 250,560 MDM's; since only 200 were required to kill a BF SD, while the SLN only sent perhaps twice as many SD's, the BSDF alone would have over 6 times the overkill needed before getting to those other pods.

Then there might be 'their' version of Mistletoe, RD's mounting warheads up to 500 MT (possibly with focused LH's), that might be lurking within the H-L but easily match the inbound SLN trajectories before getting inside the SD's obliteration radius etc.

The BSDF might even warn or bluff the BF CO by showing some of the RD's, but not the Mistletoe's, etc.

Given the BSDF's potential, and RFC's post that Beowulf isn't as helpless as some here think, surprises are in store.

L

TheMonster wrote:

Norm.bone wrote:It seems to me there is a window of vulnerability there. It probably won't execute as well as the Mandrins expect, but I don't think it'll go as optimistically as Uncle Jaques and Hamish hope either. Anything less than a complete repulse of the SLN would give them the fig leaf they need to trash Beowulf.

The way the Mandarins were talking, it's unlikely they'll get anything put together before the plebiscite, and after it, the window is closed, because there will be no problem with GA wallers in Beowulf orbit while Mycroft is being built and tested.

If the attack comes before the plebiscite, then the SLN will still almost certainly get blown away, but in the process the BSDF could take heavy casualties. I still think one of the best things the RMN could do to address that is to have a bunch of its people who have parents or grandparents from Beowulf, and can therefore claim citizenship, put on BSDF uniforms and man a couple of SD(P)s with their smart paint reconfigured to designate them as BSDF vessels, hanging out in an asteroid belt stealthed with their wedges on standby, ready to be used if needed to provide the KH2 fire control for the system-defense pods (both transplanted from MBS and those new ones coming off the Beowulf production lines).