A Teeny snippet from HFQ (spoiler)

She wants to get from point A to point B consdierably faster than a message can get there via telegraph. She is a brilliant financier.

She has invented any of several variations on insider training, operating inside the decision loop, and the rest. For example, she will learn when Kaitsworth puts his army on an all-vegetarian diet, and will be waiting at the far end, having in the meantime purchased all available shares in Holy Imperial Macaroni (with apologies to Shaw and the Music Cure).

My first post here, though I've lurked for years...

On the meanings of "watch" in this snippet, did anybody think of the second meaning listed?
2.keep lookout: to keep a lookout for something that might appear or happen

In BSRA, OWLs data search found 212 colonist record anomalies other than the 4 for the founders of Saint Zherneau. That implies 53 other groups of 4 people to serve as "a second string for her bow", or "insurance policy" (BSRA, 218 and 227).

Could Aivah be part of one of these other groups, hidden in plain sight in Zion or close to it? Connected to the Circle, the Wylsynns, Cahnyr, born as bastard daughter Nynian of Grand Vicar Zhoel (BHD 323) and cousin to Adorai Dynnys? Such a group may have been "watching" for some sign of other parties that knew, or seemed to know, of the real history? We know Aivah is in her late 40s (BSRA 11 mentions 45 in year 892) and has been collecting and passing information discreetly for at least 20 years. But re-reading BHD 213-215 does not show a clear link... Is it some knowledge that Aivah gained from the Circle somehow, or from the convent where she grew to adulthood? Or just good thinking of a very good spy mistress?

RFC has often said, both in the HH series and here in Safehold: "surprise is what happens when you find out that something you saw all along isn't what you thought it was" (LAMA 504). Could Aivah be another example of this ?

IIRC David Weber has said that she's not involved with any conspiracy founded by followers of Shan-wei which apparently leaves out descendants of those colonists.

Noghanimus wrote:My first post here, though I've lurked for years...

On the meanings of "watch" in this snippet, did anybody think of the second meaning listed?
2.keep lookout: to keep a lookout for something that might appear or happen

In BSRA, OWLs data search found 212 colonist record anomalies other than the 4 for the founders of Saint Zherneau. That implies 53 other groups of 4 people to serve as "a second string for her bow", or "insurance policy" (BSRA, 218 and 227).

Could Aivah be part of one of these other groups, hidden in plain sight in Zion or close to it? Connected to the Circle, the Wylsynns, Cahnyr, born as bastard daughter Nynian of Grand Vicar Zhoel (BHD 323) and cousin to Adorai Dynnys? Such a group may have been "watching" for some sign of other parties that knew, or seemed to know, of the real history? We know Aivah is in her late 40s (BSRA 11 mentions 45 in year 892) and has been collecting and passing information discreetly for at least 20 years. But re-reading BHD 213-215 does not show a clear link... Is it some knowledge that Aivah gained from the Circle somehow, or from the convent where she grew to adulthood? Or just good thinking of a very good spy mistress?

RFC has often said, both in the HH series and here in Safehold: "surprise is what happens when you find out that something you saw all along isn't what you thought it was" (LAMA 504). Could Aivah be another example of this ?

DrakBibliophile wrote:IIRC David Weber has said that she's not involved with any conspiracy founded by followers of Shan-wei which apparently leaves out descendants of those colonists.

Shan-Wei was not the only person to oppose Langhorne and co. Do you suppose that Aivah could be descended from supporters of the Commodore? Another group than Shan-Wei's people?

I didn't think of it at the time, but maybe his comment was too specific?

-- Bob G

That's how David Weber fools us.

IMO *if* Aivah is involved in a group founded by angels, it would be more likely that the founders were Langhorne followers who lost the civil war that occurred after Langhorne's death.

My guess is that she's a very intelligent woman who started her own group and is not a member of some other "secret organization".

Of course, David Weber has fooled me.

robertamgottlieb wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:IIRC David Weber has said that she's not involved with any conspiracy founded by followers of Shan-wei which apparently leaves out descendants of those colonists.

Shan-Wei was not the only person to oppose Langhorne and co. Do you suppose that Aivah could be descended from supporters of the Commodore? Another group than Shan-Wei's people?

I didn't think of it at the time, but maybe his comment was too specific?

-- Bob G

DrakBibliophile wrote:That's how David Weber fools us.

IMO *if* Aivah is involved in a group founded by angels, it would be more likely that the founders were Langhorne followers who lost the civil war that occurred after Langhorne's death.

My guess is that she's a very intelligent woman who started her own group and is not a member of some other "secret organization".

Of course, David Weber has fooled me.

+1 for that interpretation.

There is still the matter of the expertise shown by her group which is a bit surprising, but by all accounts the Inquisition is not aware of the existence of organised resistance besides Charis, and that is incompatible with an active group existence. A sleeping one would have disappeared long ago.

alj_sf wrote

+1 for that interpretation.

There is still the matter of the expertise shown by her group which is a bit surprising, but by all accounts the Inquisition is not aware of the existence of organised resistance besides Charis, and that is incompatible with an active group existence. A sleeping one would have disappeared long ago.

As I recall, she closed up shop in Zion -gave her businesses to the people running them. (Well, actually that's what she TOLD Merlin) Now we learn that she not only still has ties- but ties with folks prone to really violent actions. As you point out, their expertise IS suprising. It's not like one can just decide to find a couple of friends and go murder Vicars. Carefully planned- premeditated murder of protected church leaders would seem to require a serious organization, with some really unusual skill sets. Nothing we read previously indicated Aivah had those skills or was connected to folks who did have them.
There is another "player" in this game.

If the Inquisition has not figured out they have more organized opposition, given bodies of Vicars here and there, they must be remarkably slow.

alj_sf wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:That's how David Weber fools us.

IMO *if* Aivah is involved in a group founded by angels, it would be more likely that the founders were Langhorne followers who lost the civil war that occurred after Langhorne's death.

My guess is that she's a very intelligent woman who started her own group and is not a member of some other "secret organization".

Of course, David Weber has fooled me.

+1 for that interpretation.

There is still the matter of the expertise shown by her group which is a bit surprising, but by all accounts the Inquisition is not aware of the existence of organised resistance besides Charis, and that is incompatible with an active group existence. A sleeping one would have disappeared long ago.

phillies wrote:If the Inquisition has not figured out they have more organized opposition, given bodies of Vicars here and there, they must be remarkably slow.

They surely have figured now, but they had not before the current crop of Vicar's bodies lying around, and that is the point.

From Rayno account, the murders were really highly skilled pro jobs, not from fumbling debutants, and when the wife of Charis ex-achibishop disappeared they never linked that to a known opponent. And no clues were left in either cases. The latter is what is really curious.

From history of resistance movements in WWII both in France and Netherland, they faced over twice the arrests in the first 6 months of existence than during the rest of the war despite smaller numbers & a much slower tempo of operation because you need to build institutional experience, and without that your plans always have huge flaws and your organisation is not structured to handle losses, or worse, defections. Colonel Rémy's books are enlightning on that.

alj_sf wrote:They surely have figured now, but they had not before the current crop of Vicar's bodies lying around, and that is the point.

From Rayno account, the murders were really highly skilled pro jobs, not from fumbling debutants, and when the wife of Charis ex-achibishop disappeared they never linked that to a known opponent. And no clues were left in either cases. The latter is what is really curious.

From history of resistance movements in WWII both in France and Netherland, they faced over twice the arrests in the first 6 months of existence than during the rest of the war despite smaller numbers & a much slower tempo of operation because you need to build institutional experience, and without that your plans always have huge flaws and your organisation is not structured to handle losses, or worse, defections. Colonel Rémy's books are enlightning on that.

I have been wondering about their expertise, it seems quite remarkable. Did Aivah have a school for assassins? Is her assistant, who seems unremarkable, an equivalent of Merlin to Cayleb? Could her assistant be a much more major player than we have thought?

Who provided the training for her people?

On a aside note, I think that defecting would not be a life-enhancing experience. Either the Inquisition would interrogate you at length, or it would put you on display, and you would never be free again. I suspect her agents know that.

-- Bob G