Silverlode and serfs

MWadwell wrote:

PeterZ wrote:
I agree with you here, Don. What mitigates the risk a bit, is that the EoC is already engaged in a more complex social engineering experiment already. Merging the Empire together is already trying to incorporate 6 nations into one unified Empire. Including the heavy dose of immigration into relatively unpopulated areas of Silverlode is pretty minor in comparison.

(SNIP)

Heh - you think it is pretty minor in comparison - I think that it may be the straw that breaks the camels back.....

I suppose it is all a matter of perspective.

It could well be the last straw. I doubt it. We are talking about using gold and silver that was not available before it is dug up. The money spent was not taken away from another purpose.

The most likely direct macro effect is causing inflation galore in Desnair and Harchong. That inflation would encourage more serfs/slaves to be transferred either to Lyonheart's project or mine. The inflation would increase both costs for keeping large numbers of serfs and revenue for selling them. The serfs most effected would be children, women and older folks. Women and children are the folks this idea would find most attractive. The elderly are simply a bonus who will help with the younger kids.

As a comparison the US had a population of 76.2M in 1900 which grew to 92.2M in 1910. Of that 16.0M increase 13.5M came from immigration. By 1940 the population of the US had grown to 132.2M. That's pretty much the population of the EoC and the rate of immigration I describe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_the_United_States

The more I think about it, the more I love this idea for a host of reasons. Whatever investments in infrastructure and equipment will be easily paid back within a handful of years.

Hi N7AXW,

Thanks.

You're quite right that the social engineering aspects are potentially disastrous.

Suppose that Cayleb and Sharleyan support the freed serfs forming republics similar to Siddarmark's, and it works; how will that affect Charis in a generation or two when a new generation of Charisians, who don't know Cayleb and Sharleyan, want a bigger say in the empire?

Whoever is empress or emperor may want the same thing personally, but can't say so publicly without diminishing their authority, so what happens?

These and other interesting conflicts of interest may be described in the following story arcs by RFC, of course.

With which we will waggle in joy when we read them.

L

n7axw wrote:**quote="lyonheart"**Hi N7AXW,

The size of Silverlode is from the first reference to the Mohryah lode by Nahrmahn, about 2/3 of the way through chapter 3 of July in LaMA, while the size of its mountainous region is described as 70% larger than Texas is halfway through chapter 2 in September; where Underhill is wondering who ever had a problem like his new one.

L

n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Juast curious as to where you are coming up with your info on topography of Silverlode. I would deeply appreciate the references.

Don

Hi Lyonheart,

I roughed out the math and it's obvious that Silverlode has more flat ground than I thought. I understand from the text evidence that there would be a lot of terraforming to do before it could be agriculturely exploited.

With the vast cultural difference between Charis and Harchong,along with reputation of Harchongese serfs as being very loyal to the Temple, I still worry about the social engineering aspect of your project, but from the standpoint of the economics, it looks theoretically feasible.

Don

Ps. Thanks for the references.

[quote="lyonheart"]Howdy everybody!

what's your reaction to Cayleb declaring at whatever peace conference:

"Charis and I are ready now to buy any and all serfs!"

There's another thread that has what the Silverlode gold etc might be used for, but most of the suggestions including mine were thinking too small.

We know the smallest of the 4 lodes is worth 10 trillion Charisian marks, probably more money than all of Safehold is currently worth, if the average wage is around a local mark per day, perhaps by an order of magnitude or so.

Cayleb can spend it pretty much how he wants, which is a sign of a true emperor, while eliminating the war taxes and most other taxes.

I can see Sharleyan using her nobility's interest in 'investing' or doing 'surveys for a gold mine' on Silverlode to negotiate better terms on industrial, infrastructure, and factory contracts etc in Chisholm as well as increasing the size of the Royal Survey Corps and Institute etc.

I can see the deterrent value of rumors in the peace to come that Cayleb spends a million marks a day building and training his army and navy in peacetime will have.

Of course Sharleyan will see to it some keep their combat experience while developing their latest weapons and tactics as they're crushing, conquering, and civilizing Trellheim.

Paying for the rebuilding of Siddarmark, Charisian R&D, becoming the world's greatest banker (with the Church of Charis becoming number 2 thanks to its 20% etc), developing industry throughout the empire while cushioning its effects, buying goodwill abroad, NTM major education have all been suggested; and in the main aren't that bad a list of suggestions, but they still pale besides such a vast quantity of wealth, and while subsidizing the race to space and rediscovering federation technology etc when the time comes might head the list, there are more important things than all of the these; the simple freedom of man.

The CoGA population on the two continents is over 800 million but how many are serfs?

At least 500 million are serfs, and how much are they worth?

Harchong adult serfs are at most probably sold for a couple hundred marks, because there are so many, and are treated like dirt because they are so cheap, so if half are children or too old all of them should be less than that for a theoretical 10 billion Charisian marks or just 1% of the first lode, but it won't come close to that.

However where most of the freed serfs may go is another place Cayleb can safely spend lots of money.

Though there is plenty of land now available in the republic and elsewhere on the continents, having physical separation will be critical in establishing new free communities and nations, and the ICN can provide that physical isolation and protection for the Barren Lands which evidently aren't so barren anymore, besides Greentree and Westbreak Islands, though only Greentree and the Barren Lands each have a named town at the moment.

I'm sure the Holy Writ has plenty of scriptures exclaiming how creating lots of concentrated ground is God's blessed work, so Cayleb and Charis ought to theoretically get lots of credit for that though the TL's won't see it that way, but it will be work the serfs know how to do but now they'll be paid and it'll be their land.

Creating a labor shortage (thereby improving the conditions of those serfs remaining) by buying as many serfs as possible after the war will be hard to stop given a peace treaty requiring recognition and trade with Charis, because Charis will insist, since those nobles and/or bureaucrats throughout the continents who haven't made a fortune yet will want theirs, so it will be politically hard to stop.

This will be a long term process, but I should review my expectation that Haven's political map will be drastically redrawn as the allies advance.

All the 'Border States' have a combined population of 102 million, Dohlar has 97 million, Silkiah 46 million, and the Temple Lands' 89 million; for 334 million of which perhaps 75% or 250 million are serfs or near it regardless of what the Temple Lands' euphemism is.

Without the CoGA to prop them up, the Border States will collapse, prodded by the levelers who saw how they were played by the SoS in Siddarmark, NTM having been disarmed by Magwair they won't be able to resist any suggested changes by the allies, even if they don't physically occupy said border state on their way to Zion (or very much).

While I expect the republic to occupy or include the eastern half of the temple lands in its new sphere of influence that includes the former Border States, Dohlar and Silkiah under more friendlier management if not outright republics, many of the 'serfs' in the western half ought to have at least some opportunities during the fighting and negotiation periods to head east while their owners are preoccupied with avoiding various armies etc.

That means 30-40% of the serfs may be freed as a result of the war, while opening the door to free the rest.

While we don't know the population of southern Harchong, Howard's serf population could be between 200-240 million, most of whom will be available for purchase until they become more rare, given Desnar, Sodar and Delferahk have little else that Charis wants.

Charis might make free trade dependent on freeing serfs, but buying outright will have its appeal regardless of various official policies, and arranging non official purchasing missions [smuggling] will further subvert the official government's remaining power.

Another great advantage of this process is that most of the expected inflation will be exported to the slave nations, further weakening them not Charis or its allies.

Cayleb and Sharleyan are both under 30 and their nanites' ought to let them live till they're in their '80's, so they potentially have 50-60 years to effectively eradicate slavery or serfdom during their lifetimes, a notable accomplishment for anyone, even if their children are doing most of the legwork the last 20-30 years.

Your thoughts on how this concept can be improved will be appreciated, so please feel free to vent any and all ideas.

L

Best to all,[/quote)Your question conflates serfdom with chatle slavery,one is infrastucture &only sold as part of a farm,the other is movable property and tradable.

Hi MathRitchie,

I dealt with this earlier in the thread, but it's plain from all the textev back to OAR that Harchong serfs are bought and sold regardless of the land like chattel slavery.

In the temple lands they're effectively serfs held to the land, but are called another name.

Since its never been given, feel free to suggest one RFC might be using

L

mathewritchie wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Howdy everybody!

what's your reaction to Cayleb declaring at whatever peace conference:

"Charis and I are ready now to buy any and all serfs!"

There's another thread that has what the Silverlode gold etc might be used for, but most of the suggestions including mine were thinking too small.

We know the smallest of the 4 lodes is worth 10 trillion Charisian marks, probably more money than all of Safehold is currently worth, if the average wage is around a local mark per day, perhaps by an order of magnitude or so.

Cayleb can spend it pretty much how he wants, which is a sign of a true emperor, while eliminating the war taxes and most other taxes.

I can see Sharleyan using her nobility's interest in 'investing' or doing 'surveys for a gold mine' on Silverlode to negotiate better terms on industrial, infrastructure, and factory contracts etc in Chisholm as well as increasing the size of the Royal Survey Corps and Institute etc.

I can see the deterrent value of rumors in the peace to come that Cayleb spends a million marks a day building and training his army and navy in peacetime will have.

Of course Sharleyan will see to it some keep their combat experience while developing their latest weapons and tactics as they're crushing, conquering, and civilizing Trellheim.

Paying for the rebuilding of Siddarmark, Charisian R&D, becoming the world's greatest banker (with the Church of Charis becoming number 2 thanks to its 20% etc), developing industry throughout the empire while cushioning its effects, buying goodwill abroad, NTM major education have all been suggested; and in the main aren't that bad a list of suggestions, but they still pale besides such a vast quantity of wealth, and while subsidizing the race to space and rediscovering federation technology etc when the time comes might head the list, there are more important things than all of the these; the simple freedom of man.

The CoGA population on the two continents is over 800 million but how many are serfs?

At least 500 million are serfs, and how much are they worth?

Harchong adult serfs are at most probably sold for a couple hundred marks, because there are so many, and are treated like dirt because they are so cheap, so if half are children or too old all of them should be less than that for a theoretical 10 billion Charisian marks or just 1% of the first lode, but it won't come close to that.

However where most of the freed serfs may go is another place Cayleb can safely spend lots of money.

Though there is plenty of land now available in the republic and elsewhere on the continents, having physical separation will be critical in establishing new free communities and nations, and the ICN can provide that physical isolation and protection for the Barren Lands which evidently aren't so barren anymore, besides Greentree and Westbreak Islands, though only Greentree and the Barren Lands each have a named town at the moment.

I'm sure the Holy Writ has plenty of scriptures exclaiming how creating lots of concentrated ground is God's blessed work, so Cayleb and Charis ought to theoretically get lots of credit for that though the TL's won't see it that way, but it will be work the serfs know how to do but now they'll be paid and it'll be their land.

Creating a labor shortage (thereby improving the conditions of those serfs remaining) by buying as many serfs as possible after the war will be hard to stop given a peace treaty requiring recognition and trade with Charis, because Charis will insist, since those nobles and/or bureaucrats throughout the continents who haven't made a fortune yet will want theirs, so it will be politically hard to stop.

This will be a long term process, but I should review my expectation that Haven's political map will be drastically redrawn as the allies advance.

All the 'Border States' have a combined population of 102 million, Dohlar has 97 million, Silkiah 46 million, and the Temple Lands' 89 million; for 334 million of which perhaps 75% or 250 million are serfs or near it regardless of what the Temple Lands' euphemism is.

Without the CoGA to prop them up, the Border States will collapse, prodded by the levelers who saw how they were played by the SoS in Siddarmark, NTM having been disarmed by Magwair they won't be able to resist any suggested changes by the allies, even if they don't physically occupy said border state on their way to Zion (or very much).

While I expect the republic to occupy or include the eastern half of the temple lands in its new sphere of influence that includes the former Border States, Dohlar and Silkiah under more friendlier management if not outright republics, many of the 'serfs' in the western half ought to have at least some opportunities during the fighting and negotiation periods to head east while their owners are preoccupied with avoiding various armies etc.

That means 30-40% of the serfs may be freed as a result of the war, while opening the door to free the rest.

While we don't know the population of southern Harchong, Howard's serf population could be between 200-240 million, most of whom will be available for purchase until they become more rare, given Desnar, Sodar and Delferahk have little else that Charis wants.

Charis might make free trade dependent on freeing serfs, but buying outright will have its appeal regardless of various official policies, and arranging non official purchasing missions [smuggling] will further subvert the official government's remaining power.

Another great advantage of this process is that most of the expected inflation will be exported to the slave nations, further weakening them not Charis or its allies.

Cayleb and Sharleyan are both under 30 and their nanites' ought to let them live till they're in their '80's, so they potentially have 50-60 years to effectively eradicate slavery or serfdom during their lifetimes, a notable accomplishment for anyone, even if their children are doing most of the legwork the last 20-30 years.

Your thoughts on how this concept can be improved will be appreciated, so please feel free to vent any and all ideas.

L

Best to all,[/quote)Your question conflates serfdom with chatle slavery,one is infrastucture &only sold as part of a farm,the other is movable property and tradable.

PeterZ wrote-I really want thank you, Lyonheart. I really hadn't ever tried put a monetary value on a population. You suggestion made me do just that. If Charis gains 5 million women of child bearing age from Harchong and Desnair and those ladies have 4 children on average that survive to adulthood, after 40 years there will be 55 million more people in Charis than otherwise would have been. Assuming 40% of the Charisian popluation is of childbearing age, there are 15 million women in that group. If Charis averages 3 children that survive 'tll adulthood, the Charisian population will be about 105 million people without immigration.

Let's assume Charisians become 10 times as productive as they are now. Without immigration the economy will grow by 50% from population alone. Productivity leverages that by a factor of 10. That means Charis' economy would grow by 500%. With immigration the economy would likely grow by 100%. Productivity leverages by 10 times to get 1000% growth.

That additional 500% growth comes at a cost of 2.5 billion marks if they pay 500 marks per serf/salve. I would say the projected growth is cheap at the 2.5 billion price tag. When you consider how much of that 2.5 billion will return to Charis through trade, the price tag is much smaller than might initially appear.[/quote]

This is a real WOW!
I might ask, however, who these millions of women have children with? There is a war on- which is killing off (in this case) a few of the eligible males. How does one "assign" mates to these folks? How are they assimilated? How do you prevent the huge potential for abuse-both of whatever system is set up -and of the women ivolved?
(But the math is way cool.)

tootall wrote:PeterZ wrote-I really want thank you, Lyonheart. I really hadn't ever tried put a monetary value on a population. You suggestion made me do just that. If Charis gains 5 million women of child bearing age from Harchong and Desnair and those ladies have 4 children on average that survive to adulthood, after 40 years there will be 55 million more people in Charis than otherwise would have been. Assuming 40% of the Charisian popluation is of childbearing age, there are 15 million women in that group. If Charis averages 3 children that survive 'tll adulthood, the Charisian population will be about 105 million people without immigration.

Let's assume Charisians become 10 times as productive as they are now. Without immigration the economy will grow by 50% from population alone. Productivity leverages that by a factor of 10. That means Charis' economy would grow by 500%. With immigration the economy would likely grow by 100%. Productivity leverages by 10 times to get 1000% growth.

That additional 500% growth comes at a cost of 2.5 billion marks if they pay 500 marks per serf/salve. I would say the projected growth is cheap at the 2.5 billion price tag. When you consider how much of that 2.5 billion will return to Charis through trade, the price tag is much smaller than might initially appear.

This is a real WOW!
I might ask, however, who these millions of women have children with? There is a war on- which is killing off (in this case) a few of the eligible males. How does one "assign" mates to these folks? How are they assimilated? How do you prevent the huge potential for abuse-both of whatever system is set up -and of the women ivolved?
(But the math is way cool.)

The women would have children with men. Textev suggests that even in the higher social strata (Hektor Daikyn Sr., Archbiship Maikel, King Haarald VII, Protector Stonahr(?)) women on Safehold do not live as long as their husbands do on average. I suspect that there are more men than women accross all age demographics. The newly immigrated women would find husbands among that group of widowers or older unmarried men.

Sure precautions need to be taken against abuse. But if the new plots of land are apportioned to the women, then any men that sign up to help populate Silverlode are beholden to the women. Might there be some polygamy involved? Sure there might be. Again mitigate those issues provide legal advantage to women by making them the owners.

I suspect that some of the immigrants would be ex-GHoGatA. The women would far out number the men, but there would be some of those men too. I doubt that all the immigrants would end up in Silverlode. Many if not most will find spouses on the more populated islands of the Empire. In the end Harchongese influences will reach into every island in the Empire to some extent or another.