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Silverlode and serfs

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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by n7axw   » Wed Apr 09, 2014 11:30 pm

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Hi Lyonheart,

Juast curious as to where you are coming up with your info on topography of Silverlode. I would deeply appreciate the references.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Apr 10, 2014 2:00 am

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Hi N7AXW,

The size of Silverlode is from the first reference to the Mohryah lode by Nahrmahn, about 2/3 of the way through chapter 3 of July in LaMA, while the size of its mountainous region is described as 70% larger than Texas is halfway through chapter 2 in September; where Underhill is wondering who ever had a problem like his new one. ;)

L


n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Juast curious as to where you are coming up with your info on topography of Silverlode. I would deeply appreciate the references.

Don
Last edited by lyonheart on Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by MWadwell   » Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:56 am

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G'Day Lyonheart,

Sorry about the assumption as to the serfs destination (Silverlode) - I got distracted by the threads title.... :lol:

And you are right, the figure of 25 million came from PeterZ - not you.

This is the first time I've seen Greentree or Windbreak Islands mentioned - do you know who is the current owner (Harchong?)?

As to the terraforming, you are right in that both Greetree Island and the Barren Islands, some terraforming has occured - which would make it easier for the initial batch of serfs. But I doubt that the entire island is terraformed, so I would expect some supplimentary supplies being needed (which, considering the distance Greetree is from Charis, is going to be expensive).

Can I confirm though, that you are talking about doing this while the COGA and EOC are still fighting - or is this a peacetime plan?


Later,
Matt

lyonheart wrote:Hi Mwadwell,

I'm sorry, but where did you get the impression I meant to ever move so many to Silverlode or Charis?

I never gave any such figure, so your 25 million is quite a puzzle to me, let alone the rest of your argument.

Perhaps you're confusing me with PeterZ, which I'll take as a compliment, despite how often we've disagreed on threads here. ;)

There may be secondary migration movement, but I have no intention that it be subsidized like the primary exodus.

As I stated last time, I expect the empire's own population to provide all the Silverlode colonists needed.

Among other things they can get there much more quickly, ie within 5days after its announced.

By the way, since Silverlode is more than half the size of Australia, ie its probably somewhere between 1.6-2 million square miles, while the mountainous region is only 70% larger than Texas, or just 457,000 square miles or only about a quarter of that territory.

I do expect Charis to have an 'open door', but the fact that there are already towns on Greentree Island and the Barren Lands themselves [on the online map] indicate the work of consecration has already begun, so expanding it once the war is over shouldn't be too difficult, especially with steam powered machinery to help, and if a third of the increasingly obsolete Charisian sailing ships are used for sailing freed serfs to their new homes, starting with Greentree, Westbreak and the consecrated portion of the Barren Lands, plus the ICN's steam transport ships plus dozens if not a couple hundred new built ones ordered for this crusade over the early post war years that take up the burden as the sailing ships are retired, which incidentally helps lower the price for other purchasers, then potentially 20-30 or more million ex-serfs could be delivered to their promised land(s) annually.

again, I don't expect all serfs to be bought, rather when only around 50% are left in-country, the demand for labor should improve their condition naturally.

Given how often slaves have been considered economic burdens on their societies, there will be many masters willing to sell, the primary target is Harchong, especially the northern Harchong, with the more than the rest NTM where the treatment seems the worst, and achieving societal surprise the most critical.

Reuniting the turned GHoGatA soldiers with their families would obviously be the first priority, who could easily be offered to homestead abandoned farmland in Siddarmark or the soon-to-be vacated Border States, Temple Lands etc.

Aside: Among the societal impacts to consider during the early post war era will be the millions of TL's fleeing west from Siddarmark [up to 60 million?], and the non serf populations of the Border States (~20M), Dohlar (18M), and the eastern temple lands (9M), for 107M without trying to figure how many Silkians would leave, and how many serfs would also prefer to refuse their freedom if given by heretics, etc.

Given the middle class nature of the Siddarmark refugees, as well as many of the Border States, Dohlar etc; assimilating them into Harchong or the temple lands might be very awkward as they'll expect to be treated like full citizens very quickly, which will be fun to watch. ;)

Sodar, and Delferahk are obviously the lowest priority, though many may bought there soon anyway.

I hope this helps further explain where I think such a plan could go.

Your additional ideas will be appreciated.

L
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Apr 10, 2014 9:33 pm

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Hi Mwadwell,

This is primarily post war, but it might start from wartime raids, settling any volunteer ex-serfs that the ICN can't abandon to slave-owner vengeance.

I've mentioned Greentree and Westbreak Islands for years, including threads speculating how they were settled including if Greentree was off the Harchong taxes because it wasn't officially Harchong territory etc, as some old posters can testify with how bored they probably are with my redundant remarks on the subject. ;)

It was only recently we saw the addition of the towns on Greentree (Vairnos) and on the Barren Lands (Taylar) to indicate some consecration work has probably already begun.

I suspect the towns and islands are so exposed, that they'll be easily snapped up by the ICN rather quickly.

My previous posts on settling them with freed serfs, whether from wartime raids where they eagerly seek to leave Harchong or post war purchases by the CoC and various organised campaigns before the Silverlode bonanza became available was because of their not accidental proximity to the slave holding nations that would enable 20+ trips per sailing ship per year etc.

For Desnar and Delferahk, Samson's Land seems an obvious refuge (with some Tarotian and southern Old Charisians mixed in) since it would provide a secure local population for the ICN naval base, and a half million square miles ought to provide land for at least a million ex-serf farmer families.

Suggestions that the local noble be bought out (possibly with CoGA paper ;) ) and the serfs left to farm the land they always have might work in Sodar and Delferahk (after new management has been arranged in the latter case) which would also provide more of the land needed for serf resettlement from Desnar etc.

In Sodar's case, establishing agents to purchase serfs both locally and across the nearby borders then establishing them in their freed status locally might require setting up villages and larger communities with protection from the ICA, besides a militia system, the costs mitigated somewhat by not needing sea transport.

I could see some of these Sodar etc nobles deciding to leave after loudly insisting on CoGA marks etc to prove their loyalty, only to discover how great a discount is required when they move. :D

Who knows? Cayleb might just buy Sodar outright, then expel the current crop of nobles etc if they don't accept his generous terms. 8-) :lol: :D

So knowing that, would Hing Zhames II of Delferahk also sell? 8-) :lol: :D

L


[quote="MWadwell"]G'Day Lyonheart,

Sorry about the assumption as to the serfs destination (Silverlode) - I got distracted by the threads title.... :lol:

And you are right, the figure of 25 million came from PeterZ - not you.

This is the first time I've seen Greentree or Windbreak Islands mentioned - do you know who is the current owner (Harchong?)?

As to the terraforming, you are right in that both Greetree Island and the Barren Islands, some terraforming has occured - which would make it easier for the initial batch of serfs. But I doubt that the entire island is terraformed, so I would expect some supplimentary supplies being needed (which, considering the distance Greetree is from Charis, is going to be expensive).

Can I confirm though, that you are talking about doing this while the COGA and EOC are still fighting - or is this a peacetime plan?


Later,
Matt


SNIPPED 4 BREVITY
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:22 pm

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I really want thank you, Lyonheart. I really hadn't ever tried put a monetary value on a population. You suggestion made me do just that. If Charis gains 5 million women of child bearing age from Harchong and Desnair and those ladies have 4 children on average that survive to adulthood, after 40 years there will be 55 million more people in Charis than otherwise would have been. Assuming 40% of the Charisian popluation is of childbearing age, there are 15 million women in that group. If Charis averages 3 children that survive 'tll adulthood, the Charisian population will be about 105 million people without immigration.

Let's assume Charisians become 10 times as productive as they are now. Without immigration the economy will grow by 50% from population alone. Productivity leverages that by a factor of 10. That means Charis' economy would grow by 500%. With immigration the economy would likely grow by 100%. Productivity leverages by 10 times to get 1000% growth.

That additional 500% growth comes at a cost of 2.5 billion marks if they pay 500 marks per serf/salve. I would say the projected growth is cheap at the 2.5 billion price tag. When you consider how much of that 2.5 billion will return to Charis through trade, the price tag is much smaller than might initially appear.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by n7axw   » Thu Apr 10, 2014 11:57 pm

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lyonheart wrote:Hi N7AXW,

The size of Silverlode is from the first reference to the Mohryah lode by Nahrmahn, about 2/3 of the way through chapter 3 of July in LaMA, while the size of its mountainous region is described as 70% larger than Texas is halfway through chapter 2 in September; where Underhill is wondering who ever had a problem like his new one. ;)

L


n7axw wrote:Hi Lyonheart,

Juast curious as to where you are coming up with your info on topography of Silverlode. I would deeply appreciate the references.

Don



Hi Lyonheart,

I roughed out the math and it's obvious that Silverlode has more flat ground than I thought. I understand from the text evidence that there would be a lot of terraforming to do before it could be agriculturely exploited.

With the vast cultural difference between Charis and Harchong,along with reputation of Harchongese serfs as being very loyal to the Temple, I still worry about the social engineering aspect of your project, but from the standpoint of the economics, it looks theoretically feasible.

Don

Ps. Thanks for the references.
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by DennisLee   » Fri Apr 11, 2014 2:13 am

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If you're thinking of resettling people from Harchong, what about Trellheim? Looks like it is close enough to be administered from either Corisande or Chisholm, plus it would be a short journey from the West coast of Harchong to the East coast of Trellheim.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Fri Apr 11, 2014 10:25 am

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I suspect that, like the Ravenslands, Trellheim isn't an area that could support a larger population.

Of course, I doubt the current population of Trellheim would be good neighbors.

DennisLee wrote:If you're thinking of resettling people from Harchong, what about Trellheim? Looks like it is close enough to be administered from either Corisande or Chisholm, plus it would be a short journey from the West coast of Harchong to the East coast of Trellheim.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Apr 11, 2014 11:52 am

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n7axw wrote:Hi Peter,

snip
In short, I still don't see how the idea is practical. Rather than being something that evolves naturally, what we are talking about here is a huge experiment in social engineering; one that would have the potential of going tragically wrong.

Don


I agree with you here, Don. What mitigates the risk a bit, is that the EoC is already engaged in a more complex social engineering experiment already. Merging the Empire together is already trying to incorporate 6 nations into one unified Empire. Including the heavy dose of immigration into relatively unpopulated areas of Silverlode is pretty minor in comparison.

I agree that the Empire can easily draw volunteers to move to Silverlode from within its current nations. If they do that, spread their most capable and productive segments away from the primary production centers.

Drawing that workforce from outside the Empire means the current workforce that might be best able to transition into the new innovative industries is free to remain nearer the production centers. I suppose my initial number was very pie in the sky. Building the troop transports that might be used to ship the immigrants would be a good investment. Such ships will be more than worth it for transporting troops in times of war and be used to ship in immigrants during times of non-active operations. 30-40 15,000 ton unarmoured troop transports that might be leased as passanger liners is well worth the investment for Cayleb.
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Re: Silverlode and serfs
Post by MWadwell   » Fri Apr 11, 2014 3:17 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
n7axw wrote:Hi Peter,

snip
In short, I still don't see how the idea is practical. Rather than being something that evolves naturally, what we are talking about here is a huge experiment in social engineering; one that would have the potential of going tragically wrong.

Don


I agree with you here, Don. What mitigates the risk a bit, is that the EoC is already engaged in a more complex social engineering experiment already. Merging the Empire together is already trying to incorporate 6 nations into one unified Empire. Including the heavy dose of immigration into relatively unpopulated areas of Silverlode is pretty minor in comparison.

(SNIP)


Heh - you think it is pretty minor in comparison - I think that it may be the straw that breaks the camels back.....

I suppose it is all a matter of perspective.
.

Later,
Matt
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