Status of Desnair Spoiler

Even policing the border states will not require troops for years on end, especially with rulers like Gregor Stohnar. Remember that fomr the text of LAMA the Desnari army has not changed in 200 years. The same problems they had back then in the first clash with Siddarmark were still present in the army of Shiloh.

As a second thought, Siddarmark may not want to move in Desnair, at which point the question is then who ELSE will move in? Take a look at the history of Earth at what happens to countries that are totally incapable of defending themselves. the British empire moving into India as an example or the civil war in Japan and internal military coup.

I do not see a way Desnair can stay the way they are and given how their current social and military structure is very resistant to change, it is going to have to break. Siddarmark does not have to be the one doing the breaking, a few have mentioned South Harchong as a possible candidate for at least chunks of Desnair.

CJK wrote:Even policing the border states will not require troops for years on end, especially with rulers like Gregor Stohnar. Remember that fomr the text of LAMA the Desnari army has not changed in 200 years. The same problems they had back then in the first clash with Siddarmark were still present in the army of Shiloh.

As a second thought, Siddarmark may not want to move in Desnair, at which point the question is then who ELSE will move in? Take a look at the history of Earth at what happens to countries that are totally incapable of defending themselves. the British empire moving into India as an example or the civil war in Japan and internal military coup.

I do not see a way Desnair can stay the way they are and given how their current social and military structure is very resistant to change, it is going to have to break. Siddarmark does not have to be the one doing the breaking, a few have mentioned South Harchong as a possible candidate for at least chunks of Desnair.

Policing the Border States will be a problem. You can be the best ruler in the world but you can't be effective if you don't have the ability to enforce your rule. Given the population of the Border States it will be a huge task to keep it pacified while also maintaining clear supply lines while the allies march into the Temple Lands.

This will stretch their Logistical capacity. Looking at the maps this seems to be one of the reasons that Charis is now sending their fleet back into the Gulf. If they can capture a major Border State port in the Gulf it would greatly shorten their supply lines to the Temple Lands offensive. Charis is beginning to fight this war on a truly global scale and conducting joint operations in multiple theaters to achieve global objectives. This is going to change the nature of warfare on Safehold forever.

In regards to Harchong:

1. South Harchong has no army to speak of.
2. South Harchong is about to encounter economic collapse once they are completely cut off from the main Harchong Empire.
3. South Harchong will be more focused on keeping their own serf populations in check once the northern lobe of the empire falls into civil war once their army returns after being defeated by the Allied Powers.

It is must more probable for a Noble civil war to break out in the Desinar Empire which will occupy it's attention for the next several years. Without the Church's influence to keep everything in check those internal diplomatic forces within the empire will explode and plunge it into chaos.

People here tend to forget that you don't need to conquer an enemy in order to defeat them. You only need to impede their ability to make war. Inciting civil unrest through economic and social revolution can obtain this objective without having to resort to boots on the ground.

Charis needs to just isolate Desinar and South Harchong via Silkiah, provide assistance to revolutionary forces within both countries, and then focus all of their military attention to the Border States and the Temple Lands.

Dolhar can be isolated as well via the invasion of the Border states and the destruction of their Navy.

lizon wrote:
snip.

In regards to Harchong:

1. South Harchong has no army to speak of.
2. South Harchong is about to encounter economic collapse once they are completely cut off from the main Harchong Empire.
3. South Harchong will be more focused on keeping their own serf populations in check once the northern lobe of the empire falls into civil war once their army returns after being defeated by the Allied Powers.

snip.

I believe you are wrong about South Harchong.
1) If it has no army then why build a wall separating Desnair and its own borders? If the nationa have had a history of aggression, then South harching will indeed have an amry.
2) Why would the South Harchong economy collapse? Separating from haven simply means theirs is the most robust manufacturing center of the Loyalist nations on Howard. Sort of like the US after WWII, no competition. Desnair, Sodar and all the other nations of Howard will no longer be able to buy from Dohlar, Siddermark or Silkiah. South harchong will have it made in the shade.
3) Text has it that South harchong is less dependant than North Harchong is on serfs and salves. They are much more merchantile oriented. That implies a larger middle class. If they are better than North harchong in this regard, they are much better than Desnair. As Desnair falls to civil war/strife, South Harchong can take Desnari territory without much risk.

I don't see South Harchong suffering much in the near term if they keep their ships out of the Gulf of Dohlar.

PeterZ wrote:

lizon wrote:
snip.

In regards to Harchong:

1. South Harchong has no army to speak of.
2. South Harchong is about to encounter economic collapse once they are completely cut off from the main Harchong Empire.
3. South Harchong will be more focused on keeping their own serf populations in check once the northern lobe of the empire falls into civil war once their army returns after being defeated by the Allied Powers.

snip.

I believe you are wrong about South Harchong.
1) If it has no army then why build a wall separating Desnair and its own borders? If the nationa have had a history of aggression, then South harching will indeed have an amry.
2) Why would the South Harchong economy collapse? Separating from haven simply means theirs is the most robust manufacturing center of the Loyalist nations on Howard. Sort of like the US after WWII, no competition. Desnair, Sodar and all the other nations of Howard will no longer be able to buy from Dohlar, Siddermark or Silkiah. South harchong will have it made in the shade.
3) Text has it that South harchong is less dependant than North Harchong is on serfs and salves. They are much more merchantile oriented. That implies a larger middle class. If they are better than North harchong in this regard, they are much better than Desnair. As Desnair falls to civil war/strife, South Harchong can take Desnari territory without much risk.

I don't see South Harchong suffering much in the near term if they keep their ships out of the Gulf of Dohlar.

Where will South Harchong market it's products? Nothing will ship north to the Temple lands and to any other market - except over that wall (that I believe was build to keep the Harchongese out). Yes they have a military but with the occcupation of Harchong Narrows by the ICN, those robust manufacturies they have will be put out of business very soon. No overland routes that will work!

South Harchong has the advantage that enormous amounts of CoGA gold has been poured into getting them up to the current technological standard. IF and this is a big if, they can produce the newest saint Kylhman rifle developed by the CoGA side they will have a market for them. Desnair alone will need a million or 2 just for their current forces over a period of time, keep in mind there is text that explicitly states that the guilds in Desnair CANT build the weapons in quantity, in addition in the past any good they could not make enough of was imported.

Hi PeterZ,

I concur that South Harchong is far better positioned to survive and prosper through the end of this war and beyond.

Fraihan's Wall indicates South Harchong had quite an army at some point in the past, nor is there any textev for ever losing it, NTM the fact that Desnar apparently has never considered invading South Harchong unlike Siddarmark, indicates South Harchong has quite a deterrent at either the continental or empire level.

The open hearth furnaces that Duchairn is building there indicates his confidence in their mercantile efficiency if not superiority over the northern empire and the rest of the CoGA nations, an alternative being that Duchairn or possibly primarily Magwair wanted Dohlar because the temple lands' production was too limited due to the necessity of coal imports, but Clyntahn insisted on Harchong and Duchairn (or Magwair) suggested the compromise of South Harchong.

The ICN presence in the Gulf of Dohlar provides it with near de facto effective independence of the northern empire, since little trade will get past the blockade and while messenger schooners could find their way through, acknowledging or getting receipts of messages for orders or instructions which the South Harchongese preferred to ignore could be awkward and clumsy to confirm.

I'm quite confident some kind of under the table accommodation or arrangement will be made between South Harchong and the ICN to the advantage of both will occur to both, and we may see it in HFQ.

When the Go4 loses Howard will be interesting, because it may depend on how soon the South Harchong leadership realizes their opportunity.

L

PeterZ wrote:

lizon wrote:
snip.

In regards to Harchong:

1. South Harchong has no army to speak of.
2. South Harchong is about to encounter economic collapse once they are completely cut off from the main Harchong Empire.
3. South Harchong will be more focused on keeping their own serf populations in check once the northern lobe of the empire falls into civil war once their army returns after being defeated by the Allied Powers.

snip.

I believe you are wrong about South Harchong.
1) If it has no army then why build a wall separating Desnair and its own borders? If the nationa have had a history of aggression, then South harching will indeed have an amry.
2) Why would the South Harchong economy collapse? Separating from haven simply means theirs is the most robust manufacturing center of the Loyalist nations on Howard. Sort of like the US after WWII, no competition. Desnair, Sodar and all the other nations of Howard will no longer be able to buy from Dohlar, Siddermark or Silkiah. South harchong will have it made in the shade.
3) Text has it that South harchong is less dependant than North Harchong is on serfs and salves. They are much more merchantile oriented. That implies a larger middle class. If they are better than North harchong in this regard, they are much better than Desnair. As Desnair falls to civil war/strife, South Harchong can take Desnari territory without much risk.

I don't see South Harchong suffering much in the near term if they keep their ships out of the Gulf of Dohlar.

Desnair wont be able to match the republic, but i do see them using the change in technology in warfare, to expand their territory. With south harchong seperated from the rest of harchong, they are potentially vulnerable. THe other states of howard, had the church to limit any one expansion, but with them occupied, they wont care about minor states being gobbled up.
Conquering new land has often been a source of wealth for countries, so using the military increase the church paid for and use it to ensure their dominance on howard.
Charis might not like desnair, they dislike others more, i see there will be lots of smuggling allowed her, and lots of basic materials pouring through, enough to allow even a limited desnair force to deal with a poorly equipped enemy in the new modern warfare.

Hi SYED,

Desnar may have the upper hand when it comes to invading Delferahk or Sodar, but the fact it hasn't for centuries indicates they have nothing it wants that's worth the bother of invading them, which is still true today, so I don't see them in any eminent danger as a result of the destruction of the AoJ.

We have seen minor states on Howard from OAR (on the west coast) disappear as RFC cleared the decks of possible distractions, but I doubt we'll see more of that in HFQ.

It would be very amusing if Desnar did invade Delferahk in a future book (the next after HFQ etc) and the EoC came to the rescue, causing the Delferahkans to reassess their feelings about Charis etc.

I expect the border states to undergo considerable reassessments of their relationships with the republic and the EoC in HFQ, given the 11 nations I'm curious what the variations will be.

L

SYED wrote:Desnair wont be able to match the republic, but i do see them using the change in technology in warfare, to expand their territory. With south harchong seperated from the rest of harchong, they are potentially vulnerable. THe other states of howard, had the church to limit any one expansion, but with them occupied, they wont care about minor states being gobbled up.
Conquering new land has often been a source of wealth for countries, so using the military increase the church paid for and use it to ensure their dominance on howard.
Charis might not like desnair, they dislike others more, i see there will be lots of smuggling allowed her, and lots of basic materials pouring through, enough to allow even a limited desnair force to deal with a poorly equipped enemy in the new modern warfare.

Well technically Siddarmark had nothing of interest to Desnair, other than perhaps tribute, the basic cause was that Desnair could not understand why the trade patterns associated with Silk Town, and the Salthar Canal, favored Siddarmark.

lyonheart wrote:Hi SYED,

Desnar may have the upper hand when it comes to invading Delferahk or Sodar, but the fact it hasn't for centuries indicates they have nothing it wants that's worth the bother of invading them, which is still true today, so I don't see them in any eminent danger as a result of the destruction of the AoJ.

We have seen minor states on Howard from OAR (on the west coast) disappear as RFC cleared the decks of possible distractions, but I doubt we'll see more of that in HFQ.

It would be very amusing if Desnar did invade Delferahk in a future book (the next after HFQ etc) and the EoC came to the rescue, causing the Delferahkans to reassess their feelings about Charis etc.

I expect the border states to undergo considerable reassessments of their relationships with the republic and the EoC in HFQ, given the 11 nations I'm curious what the variations will be.

L

SYED wrote:Desnair wont be able to match the republic, but i do see them using the change in technology in warfare, to expand their territory. With south harchong seperated from the rest of harchong, they are potentially vulnerable. THe other states of howard, had the church to limit any one expansion, but with them occupied, they wont care about minor states being gobbled up.
Conquering new land has often been a source of wealth for countries, so using the military increase the church paid for and use it to ensure their dominance on howard.
Charis might not like desnair, they dislike others more, i see there will be lots of smuggling allowed her, and lots of basic materials pouring through, enough to allow even a limited desnair force to deal with a poorly equipped enemy in the new modern warfare.

SYED wrote:Desnair wont be able to match the republic, but i do see them using the change in technology in warfare, to expand their territory. With south harchong seperated from the rest of harchong, they are potentially vulnerable.

(SNIP)

Heh - I'm finding this posting really funny, as I went back and re-read the very first posting of this topic, where "Alistair" was wondering if the weakened Desnair would be able to withstand an invasion.

And now the topic has jumped to Desnair having the strength to invade others......