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Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees

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Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by Brigade XO   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:15 pm

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With Lacoon I and II in force the Manticore Merchant Marine is effectivly all out of the SL. At the same time all of the SL flagged merchant shipping is no longer able to use the Junction.

So, what is happening as far as 1) the Merchant Marine trying to rebuild the various sources of shipping revenue and 2) Manticore replacing at least part of the revenue lost by closing the Junction.

I'm sure that Manticore could contract with some of those idle MMM ships to move things being produced at Beowulf for rebuilding the space stations, yards and orbital manufacturing. Haven could be a major source of revenue for the MMM companies if there is more volume of traffic to and from systems in the RH or newly rei-ndependnet systems. Haven may or may not have enough merchant shipping to meet the volume.

None of this replaces the volume of revenue from closing the Junction to the volume of traffic that was there. It is possible that Beowulf may get a boost as a transhipment point for SL originated cargos for destinations in and beyond the Manticore controlled area with moving the goods from SL to SEM flagged ships. That would provide some revenue.

The problems remain as to what is going to happen to the economic engine that was the MMM if the war with the SL crushes the merchant companies?
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by kzt   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:37 pm

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Freighters are a well understood technology, so the obvious response by the SL is to build more freighters. If every SL planet builds 100, then you have more then 100,000 new freighters in a year or two. And I doubt the SL will every employ Manticore as it previously did.
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by Direwolf18   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:13 pm

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I think the number of worlds who could build a freighter in the SLN is a tad smaller then all of them. The core worlds sure, and probably a decent chunk of the inner shell, beyond that I doubt it.

The real kicker for the SLN however is the shutting down of the wormhole termini. That is going to be a disaster of unmitigated proportions.

The MMM is going to take a hit, but there is a lot of traffic to be had in the republic of Haven, and all the worlds who decided to leave said republic once Saint-Just found a bullet between the eyes. I think its like 200 worlds who bailed. They were mostly dirt poor but so is a lot of the confederecy.

I have the strangest suspicion that as chunks of the protecterates start getting sliced off by such enterprising souls as Admiral Gold Peak, that the merchants will be rushing in behind them.

I also figure that the Talbott quadrant is going to be seeing a LOT of traffic in the very near future.
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by KNick   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:30 pm

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IMHO, the biggest determining factor on whether or not some of the merchants go under is how fast Manticore is able to rebuild the civilian parts of the destroyed stations. There are large markets to be tapped in Silesia, Talbott and the area around the RH. Now that the pirate problem in Silesia is coming under control, the cost of doing business there will be going down due to lower insurance rates and tariffs. Talbott and Silesia will still be hungry for cargos to help boost their infrastructure. The planets around Haven will be able to choose which group they buy from, but Manticore should still make some headway.

Also, now that Mike is busy taking planets away from the League, I expect that some of the merchants will head in that direction, especially those with previous contacts in that area. After all, it doesn't cost much more to send them looking for cargo than it does to have them sitting around, idle. It might not save all of them, but many will survive.
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by kzt   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:41 pm

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There are 50? worlds in the confed vs 1100 SL worlds. Do you really think that each confed world is 50 times as prosperous as the average SL world?

It's like replacing your thrice daily 777 flights to London, Tokyo and Tel Aviv with hourly flights to Chișinău, Islamabad and Niamey. I just don't see this working out financially.
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by Spacekiwi   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 2:54 pm

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In the short term it wont be pretty, but over time they may become like grayson. All of haven is now open to the MMM, and all of the Manticoran Alliance is open to the Havenites.
It may not be easy at first, but i suspect the Grand Alliance will end up very grand in about a decade or two as the big boys help bootstrap the new ones up to their level. We saw how hard it was to fight the Havenites with podnaughts and without Apollo, so imagine how screwed the league will be when the entire GA has podnaughts with Appollo, the might of the havenite manufacturing behind it, and the skill of the GA research teams combined.....
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by KNick   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 3:12 pm

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kzt wrote:There are 50? worlds in the confed vs 1100 SL worlds. Do you really think that each confed world is 50 times as prosperous as the average SL world?

It's like replacing your thrice daily 777 flights to London, Tokyo and Tel Aviv with hourly flights to Chișinău, Islamabad and Niamey. I just don't see this working out financially.


In the short term, you are correct. However, operating at a small loose in the short term just to keep operating at all is better than sitting around at a pure loose. As for numbers of planets, there are also the 300 or so in the RH, the 20 or so in the region of Talbott, the 30 or more in the Andermani Empire, a couple each around Asgerd and Midgard, as well as any independents around the Lacoon sites, any planets (independent or liberated) in Meyers, any colonies beyond Basilisk, independents around Terra Haute, Erewhon and Torch (as well as those planets) and eventually the Maya Sector planets as well.

It is going to take some time for the MMM to re-establish itself, but it can be done. Perhaps none of them are as wealthy as the League planets are currently, but all of them have some potential as customers. The MMM might have to shift from hauling freight for other people (which is mostly what they did in the League) to carrying cargos that originate in Manticore or Haven on a more speculative basis.
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by KNick   » Sun Mar 30, 2014 4:03 pm

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We also tend to forget that there are other members of the Manticoran Alliance to trade with. We never had hard numbers on how many there were, but there were more than just Zanzibar and Allizon. Trade with them only shut down because of the destruction of the space stations, if then. What manufacturing there was on planet was not affected as much. Incoming raw materials are harder to handle without the stations but it can be done, if slowly. The same applies to outbound goods. With that output for a base, there should still be some on-going outbound trade. It might not be enough for more than a half dozen to a dozen ships to operate on, but it is still a revenue source for some of the smaller firms and the government.

As for Junction fees, there are still news and dispatch boats, more than a few freighters operating on the lines that do not lead to the League and neutral flagged vessels using the Junction.
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by Hutch   » Mon Mar 31, 2014 9:16 am

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kzt wrote:Freighters are a well understood technology, so the obvious response by the SL is to build more freighters. If every SL planet builds 100, then you have more then 100,000 new freighters in a year or two. And I doubt the SL will every employ Manticore as it previously did.


I must respectfully disagree, friend kzt. While all the Core and most if not all of the Shell planets (which would give you the 1,000 planets you need for your numbers) have the capability, I doubt many of them have the infrastructure in place to build 4-8MT Freighters. After all, 50% of ships built on Earth today come from three countries. And while they have the technology to establish the '100 freighters per month' capability, it is going to cost a good chunk of money and manpower, just as the trade and financial crisis casued by Lacoon I and II is ramping up.

And would you want to build a shipyard, knowing the Manties (or someone else in these turbulent times) could come by one day and return it to its component atoms? Not good business.

As for the SL not using Manty transport, I couldn't agree more--but the SL is not long for this time-space. If you mean that the one-time SL members are unlikely to trust the MMM in the near future, that is possible, but it is also something the Manties are aware of and will 'spin' to their advantage, IMHO.

Let's take for example a heavily agricultural planet (call it Nebraska). The Lacoon I and II actions have severly hurt it's economy and trade, both the export of food and the import of finished materials, and they are not in a good mood. Then a Manty CL squadron hypers in with six frieghters, three loaded with trade goods and three configured to carry grain and other products, along with contracts with several worlds out in the Haven Sector.

And the Manties say, in effect: "We were never really mad at you (It was the Mandarins and the idiots in the ISLN who forced us to such extermities). We'd like to re-establish trade and other friendly relations, especially since the SL seems to be breaking apart and can no longer protect you, and that Verge dictator 60 LY over thataway with the SDF with a BC division has been making noises in your direction--in fact, there are 7-8 other worlds nearby who we've started trading with again and I think they'd be interested in joining some 'Common Market and Defense Alliance" with you--and one of them has some SD's...."

It will have to be handled very well, and there will be some slipups, but I think that is what "Honor's plan" is striving for.

We shall see--eventually.

IMHO as always...YMMV.
Last edited by Hutch on Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Manticore Merchant Marine plus Junction Fees
Post by saber964   » Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:27 pm

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Let us not overlook the fact that as the RMN liberates SL sectors in the verge ie Madras sector someone is going to have to supply them with finished goods and foodstuffs. Also remember these systems are going to take a shot in the arm economically. When they don't have to put up with little things like protectorate service fees or "company town/store" exploitive trans-stellar corporation or the local kleptocracies. I'm sure Meyers and the rest of Madras sector is going to have a booming economy in fairly short order and that IIRC is 20+ systems.
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