(Spoiler) What military role will Corisande play in HFQ?

PeterZ wrote:

Incognitia wrote:I think that while the Charisians are bold...

Siddarmark is still being actively fought over. They may be out of the woods, they may have enough troops under arms, enough weapons, enough support to win through.

They may not.

snip

Let's review some troop numbers.
http://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=2963&start=00

Fifth, troop strengths:

Siddarmark's pre-Sword standing army: 1,200,000

Siddarmark's post-Sword standing army: 394,550
Siddarmark's post-Sword loyal militia: 496,420
Imperial Charisian Army: 450,000
Total post-Sword good guys: 1,340,970
Militia as % of total: 37%

Siddarmark post-sword Temple Loyalist militia: 473,900
Desnair + Dohlar invasion force: 360,000
Army of God invasion force: 500,000+
Harchong invasion force: 1,500,000+
Total post-Sword bad guys: 2,833,900
Milita as % of total: 16.7%

These figures suggest that Siddermark has almost 900k troops, 500k are regulars. There are ~225k mahdrayns, 80k rifled flint locks and assorted jihadist flint locks. IIRC, by the Summer Charis will have another ~200k M96s and convert ~90k trapdoors. That totals ~300k rifles firing metal rounds and 500k rifles almost all of which are breech loaders.

Compare this to the jihadi forces. They have only ~100k breechloaders and ~600 muzzle loaders. At 6 rounds per minute for the muzzle loaders and 12 rounds per minute for the St. Kailmyn's, that's 4.8M rounds per minute. The ~200k M96s alone can fire that many per minute assuming 24 rounds per minute each. Add in the mahndrayns and that's another 3.6M rounds per minute. Even if Charis only manages 100k M96s, the that's 6.0M rounds/minute to the jihad's 4.8M and all of the Allies will be firing breech loaders.

In terms of manpower the RSA has 900k soldiers in total. Roughly 300k will be armed with mahndrayns or trapdoors by Summer. The ICA will have ~200k M96s deployed my Summer. The jihadi troops will have maybe 700k rifle armed troops between the GHoGatA and Dohlar. Only ~50k will be from the remainder of the Army of Shiloh and perhaps another ~100k muzzle loading rifle armed troops in Dohlar proper. I doubt dohlar could have produced many more rifles than ~250k if that's about how many Charis managed over a longer time.

That 100k rifle armed RDA troops have to protect the entire border and all the port cities. Let's add a fudge factor and say there are 200k rifle armed troops protecting Dohlar. It takes only 50k M96s to equal that total firepower. The Corisandians break into 1 corps or 30k and 4 or so raiding brigades. The raiders draw out the RDA field force and the corps comes in to overwhelm that force. Do that once or twice and the majority of the 200k RDA home guard will be wiped out. Once the majority of the home guard is gone, sail to Gorath in concetrated strength and flatten it. If Rahnyld refuses to send out his home guard, destroy every single city along the coast on the way to Gorath.

I honestly don't see what Dohlar can do to stop this. I also don't see how the GHoGatA can match the forces the Allies can field drawing from Siddermark alone. That assumes Charis provides the weapons for the newly raised RSA troops. Corisandian troops are but a tithe of the troops available in Siddermark. It is the weapons from Old Charis and Chisholm that will make the difference. Besides, it would be quicker to send the M96s from Chisholm to Corisande to Dohlar than from Chisholm to Thesmar/Siddar City to East Wing Lake and Baron Green Valley.

AClone wrote:No, there aren't. Unless you just want more Marines. The occupying force is not a training cadre, as has been shown numerous times that Marines know nothing about Army tactics.

I'd expect that those Marines are on the first troopships out--if not already gone at this stage--and Corisandians will, indeed, go up to Chisholm to train.

Incognitia wrote:Look at that comparison - Siddarmark at peace had 3 times more regular soldiers than Siddarmark at war. Siddarmark at peace also had several times more militia than Siddarmark now.

The Charisians and re-equipped RSA have done extremely well, and will probably have done better by the time current operations conclude (those High Hallows horses and snow lizards...)
They are still, however, a fairly brittle shell around the Republic. If you want to gamble everything on one throw of the dice, then sure you can send troops to attack Dohlar and elsewhere, and expect that the shell will hold long enough for Siddarmark to train up more infantry regiments for modern combat.
The Japanese in WW2 would have run operations on that kind of basis. It served them extremely well...for about the first six months, and many of those successes were based on luck.

I expect Cayleb and Sharleyan, in concert with the Inner Circle and (for Siddarmarkian operations the Lord Protector and his advisors) to be bold, and take advantage of opportunities that present themselves. They may feel secure enough in Siddarmark to send substantial forces elsewhere, and if so I will be interested to see that, but I will be quite surprised.

CJK wrote:IMO Charis actually has 3 options on how to destroy the wartime manufacturing capability of Dohlar:

1. Use the ships they have to merely harass shipping, not destroy the factories. This sort of started at the end of LAMA.

2. Send in more troops and use the navy to launch a naval invasion or assault on Dohlar, which will destroy the military factories of Dohlar but will need a significant contribution from the army to work.

3. Wait for the new King Haarahld ships to be available, at which point they can deal with the Dohlar coast line far more easily.

Its the third option that is of interest, Charis WILL have the King Haarahld's soon and they will be decisive. They are pretty much invulnerable to any expected resistance and can reach 10 miles with their guns. This alone can break Dohlar given that their capital is on the coast without needing as much of a supporting land force. In addition the MAIN research center for Thirsk is in a NAVAL base, so almost has to be on the coast as well Why then take the risk the forces in Siddarmark are sufficient to push the CoGA out?

Far better to force the CoGA to initiate the next campaign, to have to attack fortified strongholds to advance into Siddaramark to continue the Jihad. Once the new battleships are ready then can go into Dohlar with overwhelming force and finish off King Raynahld. it is a much safer strategy and more certain of eventual victory. The only reason I can see to go into Dohlar early is if by doing so they cut off supply to the CoGA front and force a general retreat. Not very likely given how much Duchairn has put into getting the canal lines fixed.

tootall wrote:From PeterZ

Monty was reluctant to spend his troops

tootall wrote:
(Got to say your initial post really sparked an interesting discussion)

Another 2 cents: There's the timing factor-- if the Gulf attacks start after Dohlar commits troops to the next campaign season, is that more disruptive than harrassing them sooner?

Finally, there seems to be a belief that Corisande and Siddermark (and Chisholm) are all peaceful and friendly. If you recall, in LAMA, there were still lots of Temple Loyalists in Siddar City (hard to believe) (they stole the steam engine plans) and in the "loyal" provinces. And if you recall the idiot guardsman in Corisande- he's not alone in his feelings. And there are all those who lost loved ones to Cayleb's navy and during "the conquest". Those Corisandians have not forgotten. And even Sharlyan has to watch her back. The point here is that the alliance needs to keep a bunch of troops "home". Even with the spy systems in place, they can't send all the troops to the front. AND, those troops- at home or abroad- have to be trustworthy.

As an aside, during WWII, after Normandy, Monty was reluctant to spend his troops (which is one reason the breakout took so long.) And one reason he didn't because he (England) didn't have any more. I submit that Charis (itself) will soon reach that point. Allied manpower will be critical.