Spoiler what to do with the Gold?

My only point is I have seen no evidence that any culture on Charis has a large class of potential workers/soldiers who are not otherwise already gainfully and necessarily employed in supporting the culture. The militaries are single digit percents and are getting stretched to the max that can be supported with food and materiel.

In a situation like that, I continue to be unable to see how all the money in the world can suddenly constitute a large group of people who can be paid to work for gold/silver that can be traded for life necessities that are now not be being generated as there is no one to generate those necessities. The new workers/soldiers can only come by taking them OFF what they were already doing. And now that job doesn't get done. It's a zero sum game in the short term even if it is a positive sum game over the long haul.

Sure, a couple of rounds of industrial pump priming and building up higher and and higher productivity in generating those necessities will alleviate this. But I don't see how to do it in a year or two or even a decade. It's a multidecade task to my mind.

PeterZ wrote:

jgnfld wrote:All the gold in the world cannot suddenly provide for a pool of labor to build, equip, resource, and operate all this industry unless the gold can buy that labor food and other basic necessities. I have seen little at the moment that says that Safehold can suddenly support all these additional single, even double, digit percents of people away from the farms. Is there really that much spare capacity in the food supply? And the suppliers of other basic necessities?

Excellent questions. Think about the populations in the cities (outside Harchong) pre-SoS. There was 1 billion people on Safehold pre-SoS. Terra didn't hit that mark until the turn of the 19th century (1804 est.). The advances in the following 123 years double that population to 2 billion and reduced the percentage of people working farms.

The combination of advanced gene modified crops, dragons for transport, canals to facilitate transport and the availability of reapers well before merlin arrived suggests that there already is a good percentage of people not needed for aggriculture. Introduce steam engines to run farm equipment and that will free up more farm labor and allow the population to grow faster yet. Those steam engines will also reduce labor intensive industries', like mining, dependence on labor.

Because it will take fewer people in aggregate to produce the same amount of everything from food and raw materials to finished goods, more new things can be produced with the excess labor. That includes producing even more food to feed the rapidly growing population. I hazzard the guess that the population growth in the 19th century was aided by the massive increase in worldwide wealth of the period. So much wealth was produced in that period that more people could afford large families. That increased affluence is blossoming in Charis at the moment. IIRC, the Writ requires Safeholdians to be fruitful and multiply.

Yes in a few years. Take mining coal and iron. Suppose Charis employs 2,000,000 men mining iron before steam engines are applied to mining. If each mine invests some substantial amount of money on steam engines, the can double their output and only use half the men.

Let's assume 25% of the mines can afford loans at the going rate or pay cash. Another 50% only can take loans at lower than market rates. The final 25% require subsidies to support the additional loans for equipment.

The additional gold and silver can be lent at lower than market rates and be offered as outright subsidies to increase iron production. That's what Cayleb does and once the machinery is installed, Charisian mining has increased output and reduced the number of miners. Those additional 1,000,000 men can work in a factory, mine gold in Silverlode, farm or join the armed forces. Think about how a small improvement in farm productivity will free up a huge labor force. That improvement can be made really available, ubiquitous even, with sufficiently inexpensive loans or subsidies.

Multiply that over many industries and that adds up to very significant portions of the EoC population. The gold allows businesses to buy capital equipment that either reduces labor or increases production with the same labor force. True that doesn't happen all at once but the effects are incremental and begin when the first steam engine is up and running.

jgnfld wrote:My only point is I have seen no evidence that any culture on Charis has a large class of potential workers/soldiers who are not otherwise already gainfully and necessarily employed in supporting the culture. The militaries are single digit percents and are getting stretched to the max that can be supported with food and materiel.

In a situation like that, I continue to be unable to see how all the money in the world can suddenly constitute a large group of people who can be paid to work for gold/silver that can be traded for life necessities that are now not be being generated as there is no one to generate those necessities. The new workers/soldiers can only come by taking them OFF what they were already doing. And now that job doesn't get done. It's a zero sum game in the short term even if it is a positive sum game over the long haul.

Sure, a couple of rounds of industrial pump priming and building up higher and and higher productivity in generating those necessities will alleviate this. But I don't see how to do it in a year or two or even a decade. It's a multidecade task to my mind.

One thing which seems to be overlooked is that (assuming I haven't misread) the silver in Silverload is owned personally by the Imperial Household. This throws a complication into the separation of powers and the development of a stable political structure, since the Legislative branch is deprived of the means by which they historically gained power and clipped the monarchies of their ages.

There may be some situations where the Emperor feels the need to take action which Parliament does not agree with. In our world, Parliament could eventually use the need for monies to gain leverage over the Sovereign, and the powers of the legislative branch grew out of their power to tax and raise monies. On Safehold, the Emperor might be convinced of the need to do something (perhaps aided by the special knowledge that he and his inner circle have access to), and then have the ability to carry out these actions using his own funds. Parliament may well object, and tensions could grow between the Imperial household and the elected government.

Another potential issue is the growth of profiteers and rent seekers, particularly as the war winds down. Even if the CoGA is not militarily defeated, they may seek a truce or otherwise stop actively attacking the interests of the Empire. Since people outside of the inner circle may well see this as a done deal, you can imagine merchants and lesser nobility (perhaps especially from recently incorporated kingdoms) moving to maximize their ability to feed off these revenue streams.

So we may be looking at a period of political and economic intrigue between the Imperial household and Inner circle against Parliament, the merchant class and various lesser nobility, vying for "the Gold".

How would the separation of powers look like if the Imperial Crown's primary power was that of the central bank? Yes, the Crown is also Head of State with checks against Parliament. On the whole though the Crown is funded through their banking and minting activities. Spend too much and end up like the Desnari aristocrats. Balancing just how much is invested in loans and how much is spent on the Crown's responsibilities will be the trick.

What would be the Crown's responsibilities in such a separation of powers? Any suggestions?

I think Caleb and Sharlyn have effective total power anyway so the divisions of power are currently relatively symbolic

The parliament maybe active and be a true national forum that can shape things around the edges but the real power rests in the hands of the Crown.

Possibly that will start to change after the war particularly if the Siddarmark becomes more democratic as we currently understand the term.

Jgnfld

See my post above about the existence and prevalence of agricultural machinery. The required new urban labour force will come from the vast reduction in the agricultural workforce. After all, Charis has developed a much larger military, a hugely expanded industrial sector, and expanded agricultural production far enough to supply emergency feeding to Siddarmark, all at the same time, over the last few years. In fact one of the economic problems currently is how to create a soft landing for the Charisian agricultural sector as the market for all the extra production reduces because Siddarmark's own agriculture is getting going again. If they can grow output like that so can many other places once some of the war production gets converted to agricultural machinery. The problem, as in RL, is more likely to be how to provide enough jobs fast enough for the displaced workers. Wouldn't some foreign investment and infrastructure projects come in handy about then?

No problem with that idea if we allow time. Great problems with that idea if the sudden appearance of silver is supposed to lead to an instant increase in people power who can be paid in silver while others just support them somehow. Generating that significantly more productive support infrastructure takes time. And that time is not measured in a couple of years.

Randomiser wrote:Jgnfld

See my post above about the existence and prevalence of agricultural machinery. The required new urban labour force will come from the vast reduction in the agricultural workforce. After all, Charis has developed a much larger military, a hugely expanded industrial sector, and expanded agricultural production far enough to supply emergency feeding to Siddarmark, all at the same time, over the last few years. In fact one of the economic problems currently is how to create a soft landing for the Charisian agricultural sector as the market for all the extra production reduces because Siddarmark's own agriculture is getting going again. If they can grow output like that so can many other places once some of the war production gets converted to agricultural machinery. The problem, as in RL, is more likely to be how to provide enough jobs fast enough for the displaced workers. Wouldn't some foreign investment and infrastructure projects come in handy about then?

jgnfld wrote:No problem with that idea if we allow time. Great problems with that idea if the sudden appearance of silver is supposed to lead to an instant increase in people power who can be paid in silver while others just support them somehow. Generating that significantly more productive support infrastructure takes time. And that time is not measured in a couple of years.

Charisian agricultural equipment has been in use for years, already. Remember, Daivyn and Irys escaped from Chisholme on a galleon carrying Charisian reapers and plows. This cargo was not considered unusual when the Charisian Navy stopped them. And Charisian equipment was a specific target during the SoS. So, the "new" equipment actually is not that new. Charis just keeps increasing the quality of the product, along with improvements in design.

If I had heard anywhere in the text there was a large pool of unemployed from this, I'd be impressed. There is zero textev that there is a large unemployed class whatever. Without that, one must assume pretty much all people are generally gainfully employed building their society.

KNick wrote:

jgnfld wrote:No problem with that idea if we allow time. Great problems with that idea if the sudden appearance of silver is supposed to lead to an instant increase in people power who can be paid in silver while others just support them somehow. Generating that significantly more productive support infrastructure takes time. And that time is not measured in a couple of years.

Charisian agricultural equipment has been in use for years, already. Remember, Daivyn and Irys escaped from Chisholme on a galleon carrying Charisian reapers and plows. This cargo was not considered unusual when the Charisian Navy stopped them. And Charisian equipment was a specific target during the SoS. So, the "new" equipment actually is not that new. Charis just keeps increasing the quality of the product, along with improvements in design.

jgnfld wrote:

If I had heard anywhere in the text there was a large pool of unemployed from this, I'd be impressed. There is zero textev that there is a large unemployed class whatever. Without that, one must assume pretty much all people are generally gainfully employed building their society.

Actually there is textev for a large group of unemployed, at least in the Republic. There are all those refugees from the western provinces that have no jobs and are living off the state. I'm sure most of them would like to return to their farms. However, keep in mind that the CE & Sidamark's eastern provinces have ramped up their food production. Even when the farmers can safely return home, food prices may be so low that they can't afford to start over, rebuild barns, replace equipment and stock, buy seed, etc. They need jobs now, so will be looking at the war industry, mining, and military. When the war is over, they and (presumably) a lot of discharged army vets will still need jobs.