Hi PeterZ,
I'm afraid the computer ate my intended post and then crashed while I was away from my desk for several hours, but I'll try to recall as much as possible, then respond to your latest post.
I totally agree with your view regarding Hennet and his intendant's reports being seen as excuses, while Hankey and his probably didn't have time for any wyvern messages lengthy or otherwise.
Where Ahlverez might go depends in part on EHM; if he goes north into Cliff Peak rather than the ~200 miles down the St. Alyk River to Syrk in about a 5day, he might ford the river in the shallows just up the river, but that's unlikely.
Ahlverez has at least 2 5days of marching from the end of February to get to the Seridahn River (fording it someplace will put him beyond his pursuers) with the 13,000 Desnari infantry who joined him consuming the rations intended for his then rear guard, but 10+ days of rations even eked out by foraging (which would slow them down) could be avoided by taking one or two of Hanth's supply convoys.
The Seridahn River is more than 400 miles between Thesmar and Trevyr, and Hanth has only 20,000 men in his mobile force with little cavalry to screen his flanks, NTM darn few scout snipers, so even picketing the full length of the river is very unlikely.
So Ahlverez could skirt just past Thesmar, in sight but out of range, knowing Fyguera wouldn't come out to fight him at 1-5 odds.
Then again its much more likely he would stay entirely out of sight by hugging the southeastern edge of the Cheryk forest almost a hundred miles away, keeping out of sight of any road convoys by crossing it at night, etc.
I doubt the RDA had time to police up all the weapons lost in the forest fighting since the ICA kept their fighting positions, so I expect they are short of rifles, given a starting maximum of ~40 infantry regiments (before Rychtyr was detached) with an average of 512 rifles each (Rychtyr's extra rifles roughly replaced those Hanth captured) the RDA had ~21,000 when they joined the AoS, before their reinforcements and suffering their ~65% losses.
The IDA infantry had even fewer rifles thanks to their still lower ratio, though the 13,000 figure might mean they represent about a quarter of the IDA's infantry, an impressive salvage on Ahlverez's part.
While I expect Ahlverez took as much field artillery with him as possible, he still had to leave a lot behind which wasn't detailed in the booty from the AoS despite numbering in the hundreds of artillery pieces according to the textev, which the RSA could certainly use.
So I don't see him fighting all that much after breaking contact with DE, with Hanth unable to confront him while dealing with Rychtyr.
Assuming he makes it, his sense of duty will undoubtedly require he go back into combat as quickly as possible, so your point of being unable to face the ICA when equal in numbers nor the full power of the ICA is well taken, but while he now knows not to attack the ICA in its prepared defensive positions, he still doesn't realise the full power of the ICA in the attack, particularly its artillery and mortars against targets in the open, but I suspect he will avoid trying to fight the ICA in anything except his own defensive positions, which isn't a winning strategy to start with, though DE etc won't give him even that advantage.
Dairnyth is over 1200 miles from where DE was mopping up the AoJ, or over a month of marching, though he might still make it before the southern contingent of the IHA gets there, but his supply line would be rather exposed, and I expect him to draw the IHA as far from its sources of supply as possible, not the other way around.
So while he's the best CO the Go4 have yet, Ahlverez is still far from being a competent foe to the ICA, as you said.
Given Hanth destroyed Somyr as a supply base, I don't see Ahlverez heading for Silkiah, though his Desnari infantry may try it to get home.
If he can get a river between him and his pursuers, I suspect he'll be safe enough.
While his army isn't in as bad shape as Clyftyn Somyr's, it will be 5days before they're fit enough for combat.
If HFQ is due out around Christmas, would the snippets start in October or September?
L
[quote="PeterZ"][quote="CJK"]Well I fully expect at least 4 different reports, Ahlverez and his pet inquisitor would give out 2 and HEnnet along with HIS pet inquisitor would have their own version. IF we are lucky may have Duke Harless' inquisitor report added into the mix, as his death thus far is not confirmed.
IMO the biggest question is how well connected all the inquisitors are, no one is coming out of this defeat looking good so then it becomes a game of who can pass the blame best.
My hope (probably Ahlverez's as well) is that as this is a matter for the military MAGWAIR jumps in and puts his foot down. Which he can do even to Clyntahn if he can stress the importance of getting the Dohlar contingent back in the fight fast. Even Clyntahn will see that more armies for the next campaign season is crucial. Which given the weather at the equator compared to up north movement of troops should be done fast enough to still make the next season, quality might be suspect though...
If Ahlverez can escape for a next time, odds are good he will be thrown back into the fray to force some strength to be deployed against him.[/quote]
I don't think Harles' Inquisitor survived. If Hennet ran, something might well have happened to his Inquisitor. Even if Hennet's Inquisitor survived, how well would Clyntahn view a report from a coward?
No, I believe Ahlverez's Inquisitor will shape the G4 view of the South March campaign. By the time Ahlverez's AAR arrives in Zion, Wyrshym will be sending his own distress messages. I also believe that Kaitswyrth is going to get hosed right along with Wyrshym this winter. So, by the time Ahlverez actuall sends messages to Zion, there will be many more pressing issues the G4 must deal with than making an example of a competent general.
Yes, Ahlverez will be tossed back into the fray. By the time that happens though, the ICA will be pressing along the Dohlaran border and threatening Dairnyth. Not sure how effective he can be after the ICA fields comparable numbers to the RDA. My guess is not very.[/quote]
tootall wrote: