SPOILER-Ahlverez's AAR : ie After Action Report, & Fyrmyn's

@ PeterZ,

Should Ahlverez manage to successfully retreat he WILL become a problem for Charis, Charis cannot simply leave 40,000 men at a minimum with no counter force watching them. This means at least a significant portion of the army of Brahnas will need to be deployed as a blocking force. Especially as I expect Ahlverez will get new tech pretty quickly from Dohlar to help even the odds, Plus Dohlar at least will be will to get more troops to support him fairly quickly.

No mainland realm can afford to have an enemy army unopposed, far too great a risk of that army will just wreck the countryside, just as the Sword of Schuler did to Siddarmark.

Agree.

Even if Ahlverez just "forts up", Charis will need to have a force to prevent him from making trouble.

I do suspect that the force just be a blocking force as the main aim of Charis (at this time) will be clearing Siddarmark of Church forces.

CJK wrote:@ PeterZ,

Should Ahlverez manage to successfully retreat he WILL become a problem for Charis, Charis cannot simply leave 40,000 men at a minimum with no counter force watching them. This means at least a significant portion of the army of Brahnas will need to be deployed as a blocking force. Especially as I expect Ahlverez will get new tech pretty quickly from Dohlar to help even the odds, Plus Dohlar at least will be will to get more troops to support him fairly quickly.

No mainland realm can afford to have an enemy army unopposed, far too great a risk of that army will just wreck the countryside, just as the Sword of Schuler did to Siddarmark.

Hi Mwadwell,


The sense I had form the March summation was that Ahlverez had successfully broken contact from DE and was heading somewhere west as fast as possible.

Ahlverez has a couple of options, depending on what EHM does.

Ahlverez has at least 400 miles of marching to do to get beyond the Seridahn River with troops short on food, though the LaMA textev was explicit he felt his army could move 40 miles or more per day cross country, that was based upon full stomachs every day.

Given his preparations I suspect Ahlverez may have had more rations than Hankey ever had time to realize, though the extra Desnari are probably consuming what were the rear guard's portion.

Hanth has only ~20,000 men as a mobile force with very little cavalry to screen his flanks or protect his supply convoys, and the Seridahn River is over 400 miles long between Thesmar and Everytyn, so how can he watch for Ahlverez?

Who could swing near Thesmar, just out of range, and Fyguera could only watch him go by.

Then again he might hug the south east side of the Cheryk forest about a hundred miles away, and neither Hanth or Fyguera might notice where or when he passed through on his way.

Besides probably taking one or two of Hanth's supply
convoys.

If EHM goes northwest, into Cliff Peak rather than the 200 miles down the St. Alyk River to Syrk, the shallows above it remain a possible fording point as well.

If it isn't RFC's intention for Ahlverez to wind up the senior prisoner of the allies, I think one of those options will work.

L

MWadwell wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:First, I don't think he's completely trapped yet.

Mmmm, lets have a look.

He has two brigades of mounted ICA infantry to his east, the Charisian forts protecting the entrance to Thesmar bay to the south, Hanth (in Thesmar) to his west, and the joint Charisian/Siddarmark army to his north.

So where do you think he can go?

Hi Tootall,

Remember Drak is usually right.

Betting on the dragon, if you wager, is a better than average winning strategy.

I'm not sure Hankey had time to send any reports, and Hennet's can only be excuses, but trusting Clyntahn to do the wrong thing is certainly one way to bet.

And you're right, being harassed by the inquisitors would make Ahlverez even more sympathetic to Thirsk and his experience.

Making their alliance all the more a shock to Clyntahn and whoever else remains in Dohlar.

L

tootall wrote:DrakBibliophile Wrote
While his escape is far from certain, nothing is said that escape is impossible.

He's going to do everything he can to avoid a "last stand" (or surrender) and he has shown the brains that may allow him to do so.

Earl Hanth is going to do everything he can to trap Ahlverez and Ahlverez is going to do everything he can to avoid being trapped.

Final note, IMO if David Weber wanted Ahlverez to be trapped and to surrender, he would have done it before LAMA ended.

And trying to catch him will be interesting reading. And I think that when he finally gets to a safe haven he will be arrested. After all, if he'd been more competent and less cowardly, Harless would have had the victory.

Since Hennet is the only one now sending in reports, you can be very sure that Alverez will get all the blame-and then some- for the defeat. I'd assume that Hennet's own inquisitors will take an even harsher line- so as to protect themselves from Clythan's ire. It will get straightened out- and Alverez will be even more upset.

Hey now! Don't give me a swelled head! I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again (especially when trying to read David Weber's mind).

lyonheart wrote:Hi Tootall,

Remember Drak is usually right.

Betting on the dragon, if you wager, is a better than average winning strategy.

I'm not sure Hankey had time to send any reports, and Hennet's can only be excuses, but trusting Clyntahn to do the wrong thing is certainly one way to bet.

And you're right, being harassed by the inquisitors would make Ahlverez even more sympathetic to Thirsk and his experience.

Making their alliance all the more a shock to Clyntahn and whoever else remains in Dohlar.

L

tootall wrote:DrakBibliophile Wrote
While his escape is far from certain, nothing is said that escape is impossible.

He's going to do everything he can to avoid a "last stand" (or surrender) and he has shown the brains that may allow him to do so.

Earl Hanth is going to do everything he can to trap Ahlverez and Ahlverez is going to do everything he can to avoid being trapped.

Final note, IMO if David Weber wanted Ahlverez to be trapped and to surrender, he would have done it before LAMA ended.

And trying to catch him will be interesting reading. And I think that when he finally gets to a safe haven he will be arrested. After all, if he'd been more competent and less cowardly, Harless would have had the victory.

Since Hennet is the only one now sending in reports, you can be very sure that Alverez will get all the blame-and then some- for the defeat. I'd assume that Hennet's own inquisitors will take an even harsher line- so as to protect themselves from Clythan's ire. It will get straightened out- and Alverez will be even more upset.

Hello Drak!

Of course, you're only human.

But you still have a much better batting average than most of us I've noticed over the past 8&1/2 years, so don't deny your talents either.

Thank you for focusing on Fyrmyn for a while.

If he and Ahlverez have messenger wyverns, I suspect you're right about his approach being that Ahlverez was the only GOiC who knew what he was doing, that could have saved Fort Tairys and the AoS, etc.

He may include an Ahlverez recommendation for improved tentage etc.

I suspect he will be rather forceful on the subject of competence versus devotional fervor in fighting the jihad, which is what Duchairn and Magwair have been demanding for years.

How Clyntahn reacts to that will also be interesting.

L


[quote="DrakBibliophile"]I'm imagining a scene (after Ahlverez's escape) where his inquisitor begins praising Ahlverez as a "Langhorne touched" hero who was able to escape the trap engineered by the Shan-wei worshipers.


SNIPPED 4 brevity

Hi CJK,

I doubt what's left of Ahlverez's army will be ready for combat again until they've had around a month to recuperate (remember Clyftyn Somyr's after their ~800 mile march), which may be too late for Rychtyr, if DE takes him in the flank.

The textev implies the AoJ leadership is kaput, yet they may have sent messenger wyverns that were unmentioned in the March inner circle review, so they could prove entertaining as well.

The Go4 discussion could be fascinating indeed!

L

CJK wrote:Well I fully expect at least 4 different reports, Ahlverez and his pet inquisitor would give out 2 and HEnnet along with HIS pet inquisitor would have their own version. IF we are lucky may have Duke Harless' inquisitor report added into the mix, as his death thus far is not confirmed.

IMO the biggest question is how well connected all the inquisitors are, no one is coming out of this defeat looking good so then it becomes a game of who can pass the blame best.

My hope (probably Ahlverez's as well) is that as this is a matter for the military MAGWAIR jumps in and puts his foot down. Which he can do even to Clyntahn if he can stress the importance of getting the Dohlar contingent back in the fight fast. Even Clyntahn will see that more armies for the next campaign season is crucial. Which given the weather at the equator compared to up north movement of troops should be done fast enough to still make the next season, quality might be suspect though...

If Ahlverez can escape for a next time, odds are good he will be thrown back into the fray to force some strength to be deployed against him.

Hi Rakeman,

Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the forum.

I don't think Clyntahn is quite that stupid, given Dohlar's increasing importance to what's left of the CoGA confederation, but you never know.

But unlike the republic, I doubt Clyntahn has the SoS in place in Dohlar, or the time to set it up, NTM there aren't enough inquisitors to spare to have it ready now, which means even if he wanted to he can't.

Trying to do it with just his inquisitors in place would fail miserably, the wreck more than justifying his removal from office by the Go3 (and Rayno) via a sudden pronouncement by the Grand Vicar.

But that pretext for a coup scenario is rather unlikely IMO.

How soon for snippets?

L

rakenan wrote:Personally I think Clyntahn will pull another Sword of Schueler operation in Dohlar. After all, Thirsk is a traitor for his surrender back in OAR, and Alvarez is a traitor for retreating, and they don't even like each other. The only explanation is that Dohlar is a kingdom of traitors that needs to be cut down now, before it turns into another ally for Charis and Siddarmark.

This also gives Clyntahn another bloodbath to enjoy. And firms Maigwair and Duchairn in their alliance to protect the remaining ramshackle temple loyalist nations and the forces needed to prosecute the jihad against Charis from Clyntahn's wild excesses.

Alvarez will survive because he and Thirsk are needed to actually provide the military expertise to defend their kingdom and their rather feckless king from the disaster.

The only way I see Ahlverez escaping is to head South to Silkiah. If he tries to head North, he meets the bulk of Hanth's field force and portions of High Mounts corps. He meets them after a grueling trek and no new weapons.

If he heads South he buys time by forting up South of the Somyr River. It will take months to make weapons then send to Ahlverez via Silkiah. They already sent their current production through February to Rychtyr. I figure Ahlverez might have his needed supplies and up to ~20,000 by late May early June. That's 2 months to make them and another to ship them up to the mouth of the Somyr.

If King Rahnyld has good advisors, he would demand Ahlverez hightail it to Dohlar. The remainder of the Army of Shiloh is stuck defending Silkiah and the supply line out of Desnair. That's definitely seconday to protecting the invasion routes posed by the Sheryl-Seridahn and Dairnyth-Alyksberg canals. When all is said and done, Dohlar might well pull a goodly chunk of Ahlverez's troops back into Dohlar with him.

The 20,000 guns aren't going to be ready until about May. Sending them to a stationary Ahlverez means they are not being deployed for another month or so. If Ahlverez is pulled back into Dohlar, his troops can recieve the guns as they are produced and move to reinforce the Dohlar-Siddermark border.

All in all, I suspect Ahlverez returns home first and then rejoins Rychtyr.

DrakBibliophile wrote:Agree.

Even if Ahlverez just "forts up", Charis will need to have a force to prevent him from making trouble.

I do suspect that the force just be a blocking force as the main aim of Charis (at this time) will be clearing Siddarmark of Church forces.

CJK wrote:@ PeterZ,

Should Ahlverez manage to successfully retreat he WILL become a problem for Charis, Charis cannot simply leave 40,000 men at a minimum with no counter force watching them. This means at least a significant portion of the army of Brahnas will need to be deployed as a blocking force. Especially as I expect Ahlverez will get new tech pretty quickly from Dohlar to help even the odds, Plus Dohlar at least will be will to get more troops to support him fairly quickly.

No mainland realm can afford to have an enemy army unopposed, far too great a risk of that army will just wreck the countryside, just as the Sword of Schuler did to Siddarmark.

I suspect that Ahlvarez will break through eventually. It's just a mater of how much it will cost to do so. In particular RFC will be able to have some fun writing about the difference's in manouvre capabilities between the Charisian Corps orginization vice the old school whole army manouvre concept.

I figure Ahlvarez will survive but he'll loose at least 1/2 to 3/4 of his remaining troops. With low casulties inflicted upon the Charisians. Once he does break through he will likely be scapegoated as Thirsk was. However as the future situation grows more desperate for the Jihad he'll have the opportunity to be reinstated and introduce his own new model army orginization. Once again paralleling Thirsk. What will be interesting is if his inner values begin to turn against the Inqusition and the group of 4 also paralleling Thirsk. Which may in the future make for an alliance between Thirsk and Ahlvarez against Clynthian perhaps eventually facilitating a change in Dohlarian loyalties as a whole.

Bad guys that are honorable become good guys allied to our heroes against a greater evil. RFC really likes to do this in his stories.

Cheers,