SPOILER-Ahlverez's AAR : ie After Action Report, & Fyrmyn's

First, I don't think he's completely trapped yet.

Second, avoiding contact isn't the problem. He needs to avoid contact with a force strong enough to stop him.

Third, as you implied, Clyntahn is likely consider his retreat to be cowardly. Not quite as bad as surrendering but in Clyntahn's mind not what Ahlverez should have done. Although I think Ranyo (spelling?) may convince Clyntahn that Ahlverez should be given a second chance.

CJK wrote:Seeing as so many people think Ahlverez should escape, where do you think he will run to? and how will he avoid making contact with Charisian forces again?

Where he is heading right now is a dead end (in more ways than one) plus WHERE he ends up determines who receives the report first. Not a minor consideration when Hennet at least made rather interesting escape and will have his own report to make.

Also at this point Ahlverez technically has not surrendered, merely left the wounded behind, While I fully expect Clyntahn to be unreasonable on this I doubt the rest of the Go4 will be. Especially when they compare what the Desnari commanders saved of their army in comparison. The do or die policy is looks a lot better when one is winning after all.

DrakBibliophile wrote:First, I don't think he's completely trapped yet.

Mmmm, lets have a look.

He has two brigades of mounted ICA infantry to his east, the Charisian forts protecting the entrance to Thesmar bay to the south, Hanth (in Thesmar) to his west, and the joint Charisian/Siddarmark army to his north.

So where do you think he can go?

Hanth left Thesmar to chase Rychtyr retreating along his northern canal supply line. High Mount's mounted infantry is further north and recovering from a brutal engagement. They still have to man the lines until the Desnarii force is defeated. While that happens Thirsk is running for the Silkiah border.

If Ahlverez avoids Thesmar and Somyr, he just might slip by into Silkiah.

MWadwell wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:First, I don't think he's completely trapped yet.

Mmmm, lets have a look.

He has two brigades of mounted ICA infantry to his east, the Charisian forts protecting the entrance to Thesmar bay to the south, Hanth (in Thesmar) to his west, and the joint Charisian/Siddarmark army to his north.

So where do you think he can go?

Quote from LAMA, March YOG 897, Chapter One

As for Ahlverez, his escape was far from certain even now. Couriers were looking for him—with very little idea of where to find him—to warn him that Earl Hanth’s offensive out of Thesmar had crushed the forward Desnairian supply base at Somyr, then swung north and taken Trevyr, as well. General Rychtyr was in full retreat up the Seridahn River and the Royal Dohlaran Army was rushing reinforcements along the Sheryl-Seridahn Canal in a desperate effort to at least hold the ruins of Evrytyn, where the canal met the river. Since virtually all of those reinforcements were armed with the new St. Kylmahn breech-loading rifles, the hand grenades Dohlar had duplicated, and the very first Church-designed rifled, muzzle-loading artillery, it was possible they’d succeed, but whether Ahlverez could avoid Hanth and reach Evrytyn was quite another matter.

End Quote

While his escape is far from certain, nothing is said that escape is impossible.

So I'm taking the position that he might still reach Evrytyn and safety.

IMO of all of Charis's opponents in the land war, he's the one who might be able to "pull a rabbit out of his hat" and escape.

He's going to do everything he can to avoid a "last stand" (or surrender) and he has shown the brains that may allow him to do so.

Nothing is sure in war because the enemy "gets a vote".

Earl Hanth is going to do everything he can to trap Ahlverez and Ahlverez is going to do everything he can to avoid being trapped.

Final note, IMO if David Weber wanted Ahlverez to be trapped and to surrender, he would have done it before LAMA ended.

MWadwell wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:First, I don't think he's completely trapped yet.

Mmmm, lets have a look.

He has two brigades of mounted ICA infantry to his east, the Charisian forts protecting the entrance to Thesmar bay to the south, Hanth (in Thesmar) to his west, and the joint Charisian/Siddarmark army to his north.

So where do you think he can go?

DrakBibliophile Wrote
While his escape is far from certain, nothing is said that escape is impossible.

He's going to do everything he can to avoid a "last stand" (or surrender) and he has shown the brains that may allow him to do so.

Earl Hanth is going to do everything he can to trap Ahlverez and Ahlverez is going to do everything he can to avoid being trapped.

Final note, IMO if David Weber wanted Ahlverez to be trapped and to surrender, he would have done it before LAMA ended.

And trying to catch him will be interesting reading. And I think that when he finally gets to a safe haven he will be arrested. After all, if he'd been more competent and less cowardly, Harless would have had the victory.

Since Hennet is the only one now sending in reports, you can be very sure that Alverez will get all the blame-and then some- for the defeat. I'd assume that Hennet's own inquisitors will take an even harsher line- so as to protect themselves from Clythan's ire. It will get straightened out- and Alverez will be even more upset.

I'm imagining a scene (after Ahlverez's escape) where his inquisitor begins praising Ahlverez as a "Langhorne touched" hero who was able to escape the trap engineered by the Shan-wei worshipers.

tootall wrote:DrakBibliophile Wrote
While his escape is far from certain, nothing is said that escape is impossible.

He's going to do everything he can to avoid a "last stand" (or surrender) and he has shown the brains that may allow him to do so.

Earl Hanth is going to do everything he can to trap Ahlverez and Ahlverez is going to do everything he can to avoid being trapped.

Final note, IMO if David Weber wanted Ahlverez to be trapped and to surrender, he would have done it before LAMA ended.

And trying to catch him will be interesting reading. And I think that when he finally gets to a safe haven he will be arrested. After all, if he'd been more competent and less cowardly, Harless would have had the victory.

Since Hennet is the only one now sending in reports, you can be very sure that Alverez will get all the blame-and then some- for the defeat. I'd assume that Hennet's own inquisitors will take an even harsher line- so as to protect themselves from Clythan's ire. It will get straightened out- and Alverez will be even more upset.

Dear Drak,

And suppose we're both right and Clynthan gets both reports- which say exactly opposite things. How fun would that be?

Does the Dragon win in that case?

Well I fully expect at least 4 different reports, Ahlverez and his pet inquisitor would give out 2 and HEnnet along with HIS pet inquisitor would have their own version. IF we are lucky may have Duke Harless' inquisitor report added into the mix, as his death thus far is not confirmed.

IMO the biggest question is how well connected all the inquisitors are, no one is coming out of this defeat looking good so then it becomes a game of who can pass the blame best.

My hope (probably Ahlverez's as well) is that as this is a matter for the military MAGWAIR jumps in and puts his foot down. Which he can do even to Clyntahn if he can stress the importance of getting the Dohlar contingent back in the fight fast. Even Clyntahn will see that more armies for the next campaign season is crucial. Which given the weather at the equator compared to up north movement of troops should be done fast enough to still make the next season, quality might be suspect though...

If Ahlverez can escape for a next time, odds are good he will be thrown back into the fray to force some strength to be deployed against him.

Personally I think Clyntahn will pull another Sword of Schueler operation in Dohlar. After all, Thirsk is a traitor for his surrender back in OAR, and Alvarez is a traitor for retreating, and they don't even like each other. The only explanation is that Dohlar is a kingdom of traitors that needs to be cut down now, before it turns into another ally for Charis and Siddarmark.

This also gives Clyntahn another bloodbath to enjoy. And firms Maigwair and Duchairn in their alliance to protect the remaining ramshackle temple loyalist nations and the forces needed to prosecute the jihad against Charis from Clyntahn's wild excesses.

Alvarez will survive because he and Thirsk are needed to actually provide the military expertise to defend their kingdom and their rather feckless king from the disaster.

CJK wrote:Well I fully expect at least 4 different reports, Ahlverez and his pet inquisitor would give out 2 and HEnnet along with HIS pet inquisitor would have their own version. IF we are lucky may have Duke Harless' inquisitor report added into the mix, as his death thus far is not confirmed.

IMO the biggest question is how well connected all the inquisitors are, no one is coming out of this defeat looking good so then it becomes a game of who can pass the blame best.

My hope (probably Ahlverez's as well) is that as this is a matter for the military MAGWAIR jumps in and puts his foot down. Which he can do even to Clyntahn if he can stress the importance of getting the Dohlar contingent back in the fight fast. Even Clyntahn will see that more armies for the next campaign season is crucial. Which given the weather at the equator compared to up north movement of troops should be done fast enough to still make the next season, quality might be suspect though...

If Ahlverez can escape for a next time, odds are good he will be thrown back into the fray to force some strength to be deployed against him.

I don't think Harles' Inquisitor survived. If Hennet ran, something might well have happened to his Inquisitor. Even if Hennet's Inquisitor survived, how well would Clyntahn view a report from a coward?

No, I believe Ahlverez's Inquisitor will shape the G4 view of the South March campaign. By the time Ahlverez's AAR arrives in Zion, Wyrshym will be sending his own distress messages. I also believe that Kaitswyrth is going to get hosed right along with Wyrshym this winter. So, by the time Ahlverez actuall sends messages to Zion, there will be many more pressing issues the G4 must deal with than making an example of a competent general.

Yes, Ahlverez will be tossed back into the fray. By the time that happens though, the ICA will be pressing along the Dohlaran border and threatening Dairnyth. Not sure how effective he can be after the ICA fields comparable numbers to the RDA. My guess is not very.