SPOILER-Ahlverez's AAR : ie After Action Report, & Fyrmyn's

IMO he will escape.

1) David Weber loves giving his characters intelligent foes.

2) David Weber has spent too much time developing him to "kill him off" or "get him captured" off-screen.

3) I think David Weber is developing him into another honorable foe and such characters aren't as interesting if they're stuck in a POW camp.

Of course, David Weber has fooled me before and likely will fool me again.

tootall wrote:

Yes sir!! Lessons learned by Alverez will result in many casualities... for Charis.

Tourville!

DrakBibliophile wrote:IMO he will escape.

...

3) I think David Weber is developing him into another honorable foe and such characters aren't as interesting if they're stuck in a POW camp.

Of course, David Weber has fooled me before and likely will fool me again.

tootall wrote:

Yes sir!! Lessons learned by Alverez will result in many casualities... for Charis.

Charybdis wrote:There is major destruction and few reserves in both the Dohlar and Desnairian military.

I've seen this belief stated before, and I disagree that there are few reserves.

If we assume an armed forces size of approximately 1% of the population - for Desnair this amounts to approximately 1.5 million soldiers.

Similarly, Dohlar would have an army of approximately 1 million.


So, the forces we've seen so far are but a fraction of the total armed forces. (They may be the best forces of the nations army, but they are not the entire army.)

I believe that there are significant Dohlar and Desnarian forces remaining.....

Hi CJK,

I generally agree with the minor nit that Ahlverez had 35,000 Dohlarans and 13,000 Desnari for 48,000 men; who decided to join him, possibly because they saw he was the only rational leader.

That aside its a very good analysis, but given the time limits assembling another IDA army is moot at this point.

You're quite right the allies don't want to hunt down such incompetents, but Clyntahn needs someone to blame and as senior they get elected.

L

CJK wrote:Letting Ahlverez escape is probably not ideal, 40,000 men is a decent sized force as well so hunting it down or just ensuring that is completely withdrawn from this years campaign would be a priority. Given Ahlverez's supply situation, NTM how its own messengers cant find him it will be interesting to see how he recovers. For one thing Ahlverez will not want to go near Desnair, the explanation that his force is all that's left of the army of justice will not be received well.

For the other commanders though, there is no value in hunting them down, Hankey and Hennet are pretty much total incompetents ESPECIALLY compared to what the Admirals of Desnair accomplished from scratch. IMO I doubt Desnair can make an army that Charis could not slaughter with ease. Until they correct the issues within their social structure, mainly the love of cavalry, inability to arm their army to current standards and creating a supply line for their army Charis is far better using their military resources against the CoGA still in Siddarmark.

All Ahlverez has to do to get his report home is equip ten or more squads of cavalry with enough rations to get them home and send them off. Each man would have a copy of the report, so having one man killed would not prevent that squad from being able to complete the mission.

Those that couldn't get through could return to warn him where enemy troops are.

I'm with Drak, he is going to escape and he will be able to survive the inquisitions ire. He may not enjoy the experience and get a whole new appreciation for the world of suck Thirsk went through.

Clynthan won't see it that way, he would much rather he fought to the death, but my guess is enough of Ahlverez's Inquisitors will take his side, especially with how badly the Desnerians did as a counter example.

I have to admit I vote for escape also. I think we have evidence he believes that mounted troops should scout ahead of the main body. For that reason, and the thinness of the ICA RSA forces he should find a route to extract at least a large portion of his force.

Seeing as so many people think Ahlverez should escape, where do you think he will run to? and how will he avoid making contact with Charisian forces again?

Where he is heading right now is a dead end (in more ways than one) plus WHERE he ends up determines who receives the report first. Not a minor consideration when Hennet at least made rather interesting escape and will have his own report to make.

Also at this point Ahlverez technically has not surrendered, merely left the wounded behind, While I fully expect Clyntahn to be unreasonable on this I doubt the rest of the Go4 will be. Especially when they compare what the Desnari commanders saved of their army in comparison. The do or die policy is looks a lot better when one is winning after all.

Hi Mwadwell,

I accepted the 1% ratio rule when RFC informed us of it, so most (~5/6) of the regular IDA remains back in Desnar, along with whatever reserve system they have.

OTOH, RFC can change his mind, as indicated by the Harchong regular army being so much smaller than the expected 1%, partly because it has so much cavalry.

The problem for Desnar is that the rest of the army is spread all over the empire, some 6-7 million square miles guarding and policing.

Given the preference for cavalry, the TO&E of the infantry regiments argues that they were created, organized and equipped only upon the insistence of the CoGA, not from any recognition by the army or state of the paradigm shift in the relationship between the two arms, NTM what field artillery can do to cavalry charges.

Most of the AoJ was assembled from IDA in or near North Watch, though some units might have come from as far as a couple thousand miles away, taking almost 4 month's to reach their assembly points.

While it would have been rather smart to begin replacing the units dispatched in the AoJ, I suspect that the Desnar leadership assumed the only threat via North Watch was the republic, so there was little thought given to replacing such a vast force quickly, and now they are desperately trying to make up for all the lost time.

Thanks to their militia, manpower may not be such a bottle neck, however they are constrained by their limited finances when it comes to producing all the new weapons they need, which at current rates could take at least another year in the numbers they need (which would by then be rather obsolete), quite aside from the vast reorganizing and retraining required.

Since it took almost a year after the SoS for the AoJ to cross the border and they're practically starting over in terms of men, equipment, and the quartermaster organization needed to support them, I think roughly at least a year's serious work is needed before they start thinking about how to use such an army.

To avoid wasting time they need Ahlverez's report or Fyrmyn's as soon as possible.

That won't happen of course, plus there will be month's of 'studying' the report by all the nobles, NTM all the clans and families that feel slighted etc.

By that time the war could be over.

L

MWadwell wrote:

Charybdis wrote:There is major destruction and few reserves in both the Dohlar and Desnairian military.

I've seen this belief stated before, and I disagree that there are few reserves.

If we assume an armed forces size of approximately 1% of the population - for Desnair this amounts to approximately 1.5 million soldiers.

Similarly, Dohlar would have an army of approximately 1 million.


So, the forces we've seen so far are but a fraction of the total armed forces. (They may be the best forces of the nations army, but they are not the entire army.)

I believe that there are significant Dohlar and Desnarian forces remaining.....

G'Day lyonheart,

With 1% of the population, this gives Desnair and Dohlar nearly 2.5 million men. The lost army was only 500k - so between them there is still 2 million men left.


While I'll grant you that the lost army would represent the best of the army, there is still going to be substantial forces left - even in the areas close to Siddarmark.

After all, when these forces started moving into Siddarmark, there would have been additional troops moved in to fill the void - both to help with the logistics, to act as reinforcements for casualties in the main army, as well as garrisons to replace the troops that moved into Siddarmark.


As to your comment regarding infantry, I disagree. While they may be the "ugly step sister" to the cavalry forces, there are still roles that only they can play (such as fortress garrisons).

And so while a majority of the striking forces are going to be cavalry, there are also going to be significant numbers of (admittedly second class) infantry acting as garrisons.


And bearing in mind the increase mobility in Safehold (due to the widespread development of canals and good quality roads), there would have been amply opportunity to move additional troops even from the other side of the respective empires to the Siddarmark border.....


Later,
Matt

lyonheart wrote:Hi Mwadwell,

I accepted the 1% ratio rule when RFC informed us of it, so most (~5/6) of the regular IDA remains back in Desnar, along with whatever reserve system they have.

OTOH, RFC can change his mind, as indicated by the Harchong regular army being so much smaller than the expected 1%, partly because it has so much cavalry.

The problem for Desnar is that the rest of the army is spread all over the empire, some 6-7 million square miles guarding and policing.

Given the preference for cavalry, the TO&E of the infantry regiments argues that they were created, organized and equipped only upon the insistence of the CoGA, not from any recognition by the army or state of the paradigm shift in the relationship between the two arms, NTM what field artillery can do to cavalry charges.

Most of the AoJ was assembled from IDA in or near North Watch, though some units might have come from as far as a couple thousand miles away, taking almost 4 month's to reach their assembly points.

While it would have been rather smart to begin replacing the units dispatched in the AoJ, I suspect that the Desnar leadership assumed the only threat via North Watch was the republic, so there was little thought given to replacing such a vast force quickly, and now they are desperately trying to make up for all the lost time.

Thanks to their militia, manpower may not be such a bottle neck, however they are constrained by their limited finances when it comes to producing all the new weapons they need, which at current rates could take at least another year in the numbers they need (which would by then be rather obsolete), quite aside from the vast reorganizing and retraining required.

Since it took almost a year after the SoS for the AoJ to cross the border and they're practically starting over in terms of men, equipment, and the quartermaster organization needed to support them, I think roughly at least a year's serious work is needed before they start thinking about how to use such an army.

To avoid wasting time they need Ahlverez's report or Fyrmyn's as soon as possible.

That won't happen of course, plus there will be month's of 'studying' the report by all the nobles, NTM all the clans and families that feel slighted etc.

By that time the war could be over.

L

MWadwell wrote:I've seen this belief stated before, and I disagree that there are few reserves.

If we assume an armed forces size of approximately 1% of the population - for Desnair this amounts to approximately 1.5 million soldiers.

Similarly, Dohlar would have an army of approximately 1 million.


So, the forces we've seen so far are but a fraction of the total armed forces. (They may be the best forces of the nations army, but they are not the entire army.)

I believe that there are significant Dohlar and Desnarian forces remaining.....