(SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat

Possibly. But I think the Go4 would declare Ragnorak and go down that way rather than change their belief system.

As for being on the "losing side", their core belief based on much reliable historical evidence is that "God would just not allow that". Hell, in our much more intellectually free--but perhaps less well historically documented--world we see that sort of thinking right now ourselves.

CJK wrote:If the whole of Howard is cut off from the CoGA, I wonder how long or how many more armies it will take for the CoGA to realize they are on the losing side of the jihad. Keep in mind that Howard is around 1/3 of the mainland and Siddarmark itself is big chunk of real estate no longer under CoGA control. Looking at the map that's close to half of the mainland.

Then there is how many armies are left in the field that are actually able to fight against Charis. We have Cahnyr Kaitswyrth who is already on the run thanks to Eastshare. Bahrnabai Wyrshym who is about to get a surprise winter campaign courtesy of Green Valley. That leaves the large Harchong contingent: which REALLY needs Magwair's officers to lead it because after Desnair's performance I would definitely not want Harchong nobles in charge.

Would it be correct to say that if the Harchong contingent is destroyed, the CoGA has effectively lost the jihad? I certainly think they have used up all their money and lost serious credibility in the eyes of the ruling kings by now. NTM every other nation is going to see that Charis just pasted the CoGA forces in just as spectacular fashion as the Sword of Schuler.

Am I missing something? Is there textev to suggest that Ducharin is planning a coup?

Don

n7axw wrote:Am I missing something? Is there textev to suggest that Ducharin is planning a coup?

Don

You're missing quite a bit spread over several books. Re-read Rohbair's sections of the books starting with his collision with Hauwyrd Wylsyn. As a whole those scenes are suggestive at the very least.

L,
Would you expand a bit more on your excommunication thinking, please. It strikes me as being too stupid for even Clyntahn to do. Although, IIRC Stalin imprisoned the soldiers who'd been captured by the Germans. Also, I don't think the Jihad rulebook covers what treatment awaits those who surrender to the Heretics, individuals or nations so Clyntahn can pretty much do as he pleases.

lyonheart wrote:SNIP

To me, blaming Harless, Hankey, and Hennet NTM the whole upper Desnari military establishment, then executing Hennet as proof after he confessed, would easily fit the bill of ticking the rest of Desnar off; which might provoke Clyntahn to excommunicate the whole Desnar aristocracy (or just those defending the H's etc), effectively taking Desnar off the board for the rest of this war, even though they are still staunch TL's.

This might provide the trigger for Duchairn's coup, though I had the impression Duchairn preferred to move in the winter when Zion was more isolated.
SNIP

The textev very clearly implies that the jihad rulebook promises the punishment of Scheuler to anyone who surrenders voluntarily, at least.

See Aug Chaper 7: "and almost three hundred unwounded men had allowed themselves to be taken prisoner, as well, even with those prisoners knowing exactly what the Inquisition was likely to do with such craven traitors if they ever fell back into its hands again."

C is stupid enough to decimate a village over an industrial accident. He is certainly stupid enough to punish willing prisoners.

EdThomas wrote:L,
Would you expand a bit more on your excommunication thinking, please. It strikes me as being too stupid for even Clyntahn to do. Although, IIRC Stalin imprisoned the soldiers who'd been captured by the Germans. Also, I don't think the Jihad rulebook covers what treatment awaits those who surrender to the Heretics, individuals or nations so Clyntahn can pretty much do as he pleases.

lyonheart wrote:SNIP

To me, blaming Harless, Hankey, and Hennet NTM the whole upper Desnari military establishment, then executing Hennet as proof after he confessed, would easily fit the bill of ticking the rest of Desnar off; which might provoke Clyntahn to excommunicate the whole Desnar aristocracy (or just those defending the H's etc), effectively taking Desnar off the board for the rest of this war, even though they are still staunch TL's.

This might provide the trigger for Duchairn's coup, though I had the impression Duchairn preferred to move in the winter when Zion was more isolated.
SNIP

Hi Ed Thomas,

The question I was trying to answer was what is the worst thing from the CoGA's POV that Clyntahn could do, and suggested the snippetted course as one potential course of action.

Politically, someone must bear the blame for this disaster, and it certainly can't be the CoGA or the Go4, so it has to be someone in the Desnari Army command.

Since Harless is dead, Hennet gets elected.

The fact he's obviously a coward and stole army rations and fodder supplied by the church for his own body guard makes it easier for Clyntahn to nail him, but will Zhaspahr include all the officers of his bodyguard as well?

Besides Hennet, the IDA staff back in Desnar or Geyra who failed up their sums again also need to be punished, partly because they are guilty, and have been for two centuries.

I strongly doubt Duchairn and Magwair are interested or willing to spend more money on Desnar for the Jihad, which may make excommunicating the Desnari aristocracy moot, given there is likely little time left for the semaphore connection to Howard, will Desnar care anymore?

Another poster with that idea offered the same route as how Clyntahn might demand Desnar replace the AoJ immediately which is simply impossible, as Duchairn and Magwair will or have explained.

L

EdThomas wrote:L,
Would you expand a bit more on your excommunication thinking, please. It strikes me as being too stupid for even Clyntahn to do. Although, IIRC Stalin imprisoned the soldiers who'd been captured by the Germans. Also, I don't think the Jihad rulebook covers what treatment awaits those who surrender to the Heretics, individuals or nations so Clyntahn can pretty much do as he pleases.

lyonheart wrote:SNIP

To me, blaming Harless, Hankey, and Hennet NTM the whole upper Desnari military establishment, then executing Hennet as proof after he confessed, would easily fit the bill of ticking the rest of Desnar off; which might provoke Clyntahn to excommunicate the whole Desnar aristocracy (or just those defending the H's etc), effectively taking Desnar off the board for the rest of this war, even though they are still staunch TL's.

This might provide the trigger for Duchairn's coup, though I had the impression Duchairn preferred to move in the winter when Zion was more isolated.
SNIP

CJK wrote:If the whole of Howard is cut off from the CoGA, I wonder how long or how many more armies it will take for the CoGA to realize they are on the losing side of the jihad. Keep in mind that Howard is around 1/3 of the mainland and Siddarmark itself is big chunk of real estate no longer under CoGA control. Looking at the map that's close to half of the mainland.

Then there is how many armies are left in the field that are actually able to fight against Charis. We have Cahnyr Kaitswyrth who is already on the run thanks to Eastshare. Bahrnabai Wyrshym who is about to get a surprise winter campaign courtesy of Green Valley. That leaves the large Harchong contingent: which REALLY needs Magwair's officers to lead it because after Desnair's performance I would definitely not want Harchong nobles in charge.

Would it be correct to say that if the Harchong contingent is destroyed, the CoGA has effectively lost the jihad? I certainly think they have used up all their money and lost serious credibility in the eyes of the ruling kings by now. NTM every other nation is going to see that Charis just pasted the CoGA forces in just as spectacular fashion as the Sword of Schuler.

Right now the Go4 still thinks of themselves as on the offensive, if temporarily stymied. I think that once either of the main AoG armies are forced to retreat they'll realize that they're on the defensive in a war of survival.

LAMA was about the Alliance (Charis & Siddarmark) stopping the invasion from the South and securing the provinces that were contested - essentially clearing the decks for the main event in HFQ.

While the two AoG armies have been stopped, neither one has been beaten beyond recovery. Kaitswyrth has been hurt more, but he still has a path to retreat along. I don't think that the Alliance can get enough force from enough directions quickly enough to pin and destroy him.

Wyrshym has been hurt less, but he's more exposed. He knows that, but he's assuming that a major winter offensive is impossible. But the weather works against him also. Clareyk sweeping down from the North combined with an attack out the Sylmahn Gap just might give him that Stalingrad he wants. But if Wyrshym reacts fast enough, Clareyk might have to settle for Napoleon's retreat from Moscow. A big victory either way, but (a little ironically) due to the Great Canal Raid a big chunk of Wyrshym's army has been pulled back out of range. They'll be combined with Harchong's army to become the main Temple force.

If the Alliance can eject the AoG and the Inquisition from Siddarmark before Winter ends, I think they'll be doing very well. At that point it would make sense to stop to rest, reorganize and rearm. The next generation of weapons will be starting to hit the field, and the Alliance will need every advantage they can get. The M96 will effectively double the firing rate of an infantryman; and smokeless powder and true explosives will be a quantum leap in weapon effectiveness. Even though only a fraction can be rearmed in time it will still make a difference.

Once the Go4 realizes their situation things will probably get a great deal more vicious. We've already had a taste of that with the Sarkyn incident, and it'll only get worse as things deteriorate. On the Alliance side, Clareyk's sweep will likely liberate several of the Inquisition's work camps. So far, Charis has maintained discipline in it's ranks. That might become harder. And not just in the ranks. I wouldn't be surprised if Cayleb exercised his Emperor's prerogative to at least visit the front lines.

Anyway, that's my take, for what it's worth...

jms

With regards to Desnair's political structure it seems to me that they are in a position somewhat simular to France under the ancient regieme, at different points. They insist, or rather automatically require that important positions have aristrocratic officeholders, if they are particularly important the officehold needs to be a landed arisocrat, but at the same time, they require that the officeholder actually do the work, thus the reason that jahras, a mere, if rich, baron was made admiral general.

They probably have a large number of landless arisocrats, but most of them can probably trace their lineage no more than four generations from a title, one of the requirements of marriage for safehold is being able to support the family, after all.

Hello JMSeeley,

Kudos for some excellent points.

The Go4 may indeed see every setback as only that, nothing that can't be fixed in time with enough money etc.

However there are limits to all things.

Nor do I think the allies are about rest during the best and busiest campaign weather.

I've postulated elsewhere how the allies could easily defeat the IHA's GHoGatA, being split into 3 armies to replace those lost by the AoG and the RDA/IDA.

First I think BGV will do very well against Wyrshym, with more than 3 times as many rifles etc, so much I'm curious if anyone sees a way out for him to escape with his army.

Wyrshym's best infantry divisions are going to get so clobbered few will be able to fight so surrender is the only option, then imagine if one of OWL's sensor's tripped or zapped the sole messenger's horse, so he doesn't get the message until its too late...

Kaitswyrth may have only 9,000 rifles for perhaps 121,000 men; less than a sixth of what Symkyn has for his 75,000 besides possibly actually outnumbering Kaitswyrth's surviving AoG soldiers (the rest being TL's), as well as having a larger cavalry force, NTM far greater artillery power.

Unlike DE, Symkyn does have cavalry so any position K has near the forest is going to get easily flanked, so whatever size that force was it will be toast very soon, making taking Aivahstyn that much easier.

Given the lesson of what happens to armies being bigger than their logistics permit, I suspect the IHA's GHoGatA will be split into at least 3 armies to replace the 3 already or soon to be lost.

The middle or central one (replacing Kaitswyrth) can get into action the soonest by marching ~800 miles overland to the Charayn Canal for another ~600 to Aivahstyn but still taking another 35-40 days to get there.

If EHM's Scout Snipers get to the Fairmyn River a couple of five days before, they could block or bar all future supplies just in time to trap this IHA army, which could also face river ironclads that could slaughter it on the Daivyn, with Symkyn and EHM sweeping up the remnants.

Wyrshym's IHA replacement army could take 60 days or more to get near Five Forks (where its been suggested Wyrshym may surrender) by which time Symkyn might have gone up the upper Daivyn to cut off the Langhorne behind that army, compelling its surrender or destruction.

BGV can then go to Spinefish bay to embark his army for Zion, only 8-10 days away, with no army near the temple to stop him along with Cayleb and some reinforcements.

The third or southern army going down the Sabana River then east, inland of the Bay of Bess, will take at least 40 days to get to Dairnyth, where it may find itself more dependent on Dohlar than the temple lands; thus constrained it may not attempt to pursue DE very far.

It may be split to a few sub armies to accomplish all the missions assigned to it, which will make it easier for DE and EHM to destroy it in detail, but the major point is it will be too far from Zion, ie out of position, to prevent the allies from advancing and taking the temple from different directions.

That's how I see things shaping up, given how RFC has spiced things up with a trip to Zion for Merlin and Nynian, HFQ could be a very wild ride!

L


[quote="jmseeley"][quote="CJK"]If the whole of Howard is cut off from the CoGA, I wonder how long or how many more armies it will take for the CoGA to realize they are on the losing side of the jihad. Keep in mind that Howard is around 1/3 of the mainland and Siddarmark itself is big chunk of real estate no longer under CoGA control. Looking at the map that's close to half of the mainland.

Then there is how many armies are left in the field that are actually able to fight against Charis. We have Cahnyr Kaitswyrth who is already on the run thanks to Eastshare. Bahrnabai Wyrshym who is about to get a surprise winter campaign courtesy of Green Valley. That leaves the large Harchong contingent: which REALLY needs Magwair's officers to lead it because after Desnair's performance I would definitely not want Harchong nobles in charge.

Would it be correct to say that if the Harchong contingent is destroyed, the CoGA has effectively lost the jihad? I certainly think they have used up all their money and lost serious credibility in the eyes of the ruling kings by now. NTM every other nation is going to see that Charis just pasted the CoGA forces in just as spectacular fashion as the Sword of Schuler.[/quote]

Right now the Go4 still thinks of themselves as on the offensive, if temporarily stymied. I think that once either of the main AoG armies are forced to retreat they'll realize that they're on the defensive in a war of survival.

LAMA was about the Alliance (Charis & Siddarmark) stopping the invasion from the South and securing the provinces that were contested - essentially clearing the decks for the main event in HFQ.

While the two AoG armies have been stopped, neither one has been beaten beyond recovery. Kaitswyrth has been hurt more, but he still has a path to retreat along. I don't think that the Alliance can get enough force from enough directions quickly enough to pin and destroy him.

Wyrshym has been hurt less, but he's more exposed. He knows that, but he's assuming that a major winter offensive is impossible. But the weather works against him also. Clareyk sweeping down from the North combined with an attack out the Sylmahn Gap just might give him that Stalingrad he wants. But if Wyrshym reacts fast enough, Clareyk might have to settle for Napoleon's retreat from Moscow. A big victory either way, but (a little ironically) due to the Great Canal Raid a big chunk of Wyrshym's army has been pulled back out of range. They'll be combined with Harchong's army to become the main Temple force.

If the Alliance can eject the AoG and the Inquisition from Siddarmark before Winter ends, I think they'll be doing very well. At that point it would make sense to stop to rest, reorganize and rearm. The next generation of weapons will be starting to hit the field, and the Alliance will need every advantage they can get. The M96 will effectively double the firing rate of an infantryman; and smokeless powder and true explosives will be a quantum leap in weapon effectiveness. Even though only a fraction can be rearmed in time it will still make a difference.

Once the Go4 realizes their situation things will probably get a great deal more vicious. We've already had a taste of that with the Sarkyn incident, and it'll only get worse as things deteriorate. On the Alliance side, Clareyk's sweep will likely liberate several of the Inquisition's work camps. So far, Charis has maintained discipline in it's ranks. That might become harder. And not just in the ranks. I wouldn't be surprised if Cayleb exercised his Emperor's prerogative to at least visit the front lines.

Anyway, that's my take, for what it's worth...

jms[/quote]

Hi CJK,

Thanks for the compliments, and kudos for your excellent points.

When I referred to the details of the destruction of the AoS, I meant much more than the simple news, rather the reasons it failed, ie not just that DE bled and starved them though that's what the likely common view will be, at least initially, but who in the AoS command decided what when that may have made it inevitable.

Especially since it simply can't be the CoGA's (ie Go4's) fault.

That's one reason I started the Ahlverez & Fyrmyn AAR thread, regarding the most likely authoritative sources of that inside information since there's no textev for either Hankey or Father Tymythy Yairdyn surviving.

Granted servants would be an excellent source and some of them were probably inquisition sources if not outright spies, but getting their message out or being believed along the way are fairly long shots amid all the general chaos, and it will take 5days just to get into friendly territory.

Clyntahn may want Harless or Hennet's families shipped to Zion, but there's simply not enough time for that before the semaphore and land communications with Howard are probably cut, so the best he might have to settle for is for the trials and torture to be carried out in Desnar, which he might insist upon however damaging to the regime and the CoGA's popularity in Desnar among the nobility that heretofore have always strongly supported it, signalling a very important crack in Desnar's aristocratic alignment with the CoGA.

Continuing your point, fracturing the CoGA in any way dramatically reduces its appearance of omnipotent and inevitable authority, so the potential of the largest nation on Howard delaying or disavowing possible church pronouncements against major nobles NTM political figures will have 'trickle down' effects all over Howard, leading to eventual avalanches.

King Zhames observations in HFaF only echoed the obvious to all too many well over a year ago, but without direct contact with the temple, differences are only going to grow no matter how dogged the local inquisitors are.

If Merlin and OWL/Nahrmahn etc eliminate a few critical ones, something that was practically Nahrmahn's favorite pastime; many might begin to believe their accidents and disappearances weren't accidents at all, but something far greater in scope, and attempt to seek out this vast seijin network for further help in overturning the regime.

Clyntahn's idiotic independent decisions may drive Trynair into joining Duchairn and Magwair, which might then speed if not trigger Rhobair's coup, and thus require Nynian's rapid ride to Zion.

Only RFC and Sharon know for sure right now.

L

CJK wrote:@ Lyonheart

Other than how fast bad news will spread, I actually agree with what you say, the actions you list are exactly what should be considered by the CoGA in MILITARY terms of winning the jihad. they are also quite logical.

IMO Clyntahn, who is right at this moment the driving force in the CoGA is not sane, reasonable or a military mind.

Clyntahn's reaction in the past to having his military forces obliterated have NEVER been reasonable, usually there is an epic tantrum where he goes on a rampage within his own quarters. The last time Desnair failed him (their fleet getting creamed) He ordered every member of the commanding admiral's family picked up and shipped to Zion. Somehow I doubt he will be any less vengeful once he hears of this debacle, especially as:

1. They failed him once before (Think about Earl Thirsk)

2. This time it really WAS gross incompetence (the mass of supplies backed up because Desnair was unable to transport them forward, incredible sluggishness)

3. Clyntahn will understand that if Desnair can get itself sidelined from the jihad, OTHER nations will try the same thing. King Zhames was thinking this last year.

The last point is IMO the clincher, Clyntahn WILL see any nation that tries to be neutral as an enemy and act accordingly. Besides its almost Clynathn's job to make bad situation into a disaster. Where the "act accordingly" historically meant:

1. Attempted destruction of Charis
2. The Zion Massacres
3. Public torture of captured Charisian admiral and crew
4. Sword of Schuler
5. Rakurai bombings of Charis

Bottom line is everyone here is thinking that Clyntahn will make reasonable and logical decisions. I remember how surprising the Sword of Schuler was and how devastating it was to Siddarmark AND... how much of a godsend it was for Merlin and Charis. I am placing my bets squarely on Clyntahn doing something unbelievably stupid again.

Finally your comment on how long it would take for the bad news to reach Clyntahn. Yes it will take longer, there are however wyverns, men on horses (or foot) NTM spies who will get the details to Clyntahn, especially when the CoGA is footing the bill. For that matter I fully expect Merlin's pamphlets to HAPPILY spread the word as soon as practical just to demoralize the enemy.