The SLN commerce raiding strategy WILL work.

Brigade XO wrote:Then Crandall shows up. Another long built plan with an Alignment controlled officer and it goes badly wrong from the Alignment’s perspective. Crandall looses or has captured the entire force.

The casual way that Manticore crushed the SLN was planned by the Alignment.

kzt wrote:

Brigade XO wrote:Then Crandall shows up. Another long built plan with an Alignment controlled officer and it goes badly wrong from the Alignment’s perspective. Crandall looses or has captured the entire force.

The casual way that Manticore crushed the SLN was planned by the Alignment.

Byng, Crandall and Filareta were all set up to get their forces taken out. It would have gone against the Alignment's greater plan if any of them had succeeded, as they would have eliminated the "Manticoran threat" to the League and business could go on as usual.

In conjunction with Oyster Bay, the Sollies were supposed to soak up enough missiles to negate Manticore's qualitative edge over Haven. Apollo surprised the Alignment strategists(and panicked them) because it made the RMN too powerful - capable of taking the entire Havenite Navy and active Battle Fleet out. From then, they launched Oyster Bay early, Haven went "not us" and started looking at a hitherto unknown bigger picture.

Though why the same strategists didn't panic when SD(P)s first appeared, I don't know. Perhaps they did, but could do nothing about it.

munroburton wrote:Byng, Crandall and Filareta were all set up to get their forces taken out. It would have gone against the Alignment's greater plan if any of them had succeeded, as they would have eliminated the "Manticoran threat" to the League and business could go on as usual.

In conjunction with Oyster Bay, the Sollies were supposed to soak up enough missiles to negate Manticore's qualitative edge over Haven. Apollo surprised the Alignment strategists(and panicked them) because it made the RMN too powerful - capable of taking the entire Havenite Navy and active Battle Fleet out. From then, they launched Oyster Bay early, Haven went "not us" and started looking at a hitherto unknown bigger picture.

Though why the same strategists didn't panic when SD(P)s first appeared, I don't know. Perhaps they did, but could do nothing about it.

I'd guess because SD(P)s are more of a "why didn't I think of that" idea. Once you know about the basic concept they're not that hard to duplicate. And since the MAlign hadn't gotten all that far in their naval build-up there was time to design podlaying ships of their own. They expected to be able to face the Haven sector SD(P)s at rough parity should they need to. (Mind you, they probably underestimated the difficulty in pulling off an effective MDM, but just the pod laying concept itself seemed straightforward enough)

But Apollo took several unknown breakthroughs and 20+ years of R&D, on a few different paths, to pull off. Duplicating that, baring a major espionage coupe, wasn't in the cards. So now any SD(P)s that the MAlign is building are totally outclassed by Manticore's new designs and the panic starts to set in.

Jonathan_S wrote:I'd guess because SD(P)s are more of a "why didn't I think of that" idea. Once you know about the basic concept they're not that hard to duplicate.

No one had the need before. No fear = no R&D budget. RMN had fear of Haven = large R&D budget where ideas are likely not to get Shit canned by the eggs and braid because it upsets the apple cart and their tiny little bureaucratic fiefdom. There never had been a SD vrs SD fight until 1905.

wastedfly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:I'd guess because SD(P)s are more of a "why didn't I think of that" idea. Once you know about the basic concept they're not that hard to duplicate.

No one had the need before. No fear = no R&D budget. RMN had fear of Haven = large R&D budget where ideas are likely not to get Shit canned by the eggs and braid because it upsets the apple cart and their tiny little bureaucratic fiefdom. There never had been a SD vrs SD fight until 1905.

Completely agree on why nobody invented them earlier.

But once they emerged on the scene, their apparent ease of duplication seems a plausible reason for why the Mesan Alignment strategists didn't totally panic. (Which was the point I was addressing)

Erewon will have someone who will sell MDM to another SL Admiral besides the local one. That's where I would go shopping. Might even buy a whole Shiny New SD(P) simulators intact full bay of pods etc...

No Apollo but Mk23's.

Raging Vengence might be a totally different affair.

Erewhon is one of the last people to sell a MDM design, because they:

1) Have their strong code of honor which means they're not going to break a deal.

2) Relatively few people even know they're building MDMs in the first place, since it's all kept very tightly under wraps for security reasons.

Brigade XO wrote:Although it is not even hinted at in the books, it is “possible” that the leak about Fillerta could have been an Alignment gambit.

No, that's not possible. Or do you assume that someone as ... say, Honor's uncle ... is a puppet of the Malign? Because there is imho textev in ART (1) in that regard, that this info never left the highest levels of the Beowulfian government prior to its delivery to both Haven and Manticore.

The Filareta-info went to Manticore via channels which were literally blacker than black. And Haven got it via Beowulfs Military attaché, if memory serves. The probability, that both channels were compromised by Malign agents is imho nil (a little bit higher in regard of the attaché, but not much)

(1) Yes, the info went to Haven and Manticore in MoH; but the talk in Beowulf regarding this info was in ART - prior to the meeting with the SLN Rear Admiral, iIrc

Eagleeye wrote:

Brigade XO wrote:Although it is not even hinted at in the books, it is “possible” that the leak about Fillerta could have been an Alignment gambit.

No, that's not possible. Or do you assume that someone as ... say, Honor's uncle ... is a puppet of the Malign? Because there is imho textev in ART (1) in that regard, that this info never left the highest levels of the Beowulfian government prior to its delivery to both Haven and Manticore.

The Filareta-info went to Manticore via channels which were literally blacker than black. And Haven got it via Beowulfs Military attaché, if memory serves. The probability, that both channels were compromised by Malign agents is imho nil (a little bit higher in regard of the attaché, but not much)

(1) Yes, the info went to Haven and Manticore in MoH; but the talk in Beowulf regarding this info was in ART - prior to the meeting with the SLN Rear Admiral, iIrc

It could be a lot simpler than that. The Alignment set up the whole Filerta attack and one would presume that the details were being fed back to the Alignment as things progressed. Just how do you think Filerta gets all those interesting mdm pods delivered “via Mesa” from an unknown source? He is speculating and reasoning in one scene about where these new missiles are actually from. Alignment could have discovered a Beowulf agent in the SLN and arranged to have him discover (or be fed) enough to find the plan (with details) and pass it home. The whole idea is to cripple both SLN and Manticore.

Beowulf has got to have its own agents working inside or around the edges the SLN. Having a really deep agent find out about the major attack on Beowulf’s strongest trading and treaty partner would be something to phone home. An agent at such a level in the largest navy in the Human universe would have heavy safeguards as far as who got to see the information. IF the Alignment had discovered a Beowulf agent, it would be in their best interests to NOT blow their cover but monitor what they could and save the knowledge for a situation just like this. The whole idea is to break the SL and any other serious power. The information goes from the agent through their conduit (very rarely used) to a point in the Beowulf intelligence community and then to the appropriate Director(s). Give what is know at SLN (they are, after all, planning this mission) the agent would see this as a problem Home needs to know about. Beowulf, particularly with what is happing to it in the League really doesn’t want their close partner Manticore taken over or seriously damaged since that lets the League- who is also going to pluck the Sigma Draconis terminus like a ripe plum in this whole thing- effectively take them over even if they leave the existing Home political structure intact (for now).

Which ever way you slice this. SLN ONI is going to go into a frenzy of investigation when the reports from 2nd Manticore make it obvious that THEY KNEW WE WERE COMING AND WERE WAITING FOR US. Find that leak!!!!!!

Brigade XO wrote:Which ever way you slice this. SLN ONI is going to go into a frenzy of investigation when the reports from 2nd Manticore make it obvious that THEY KNEW WE WERE COMING AND WERE WAITING FOR US. Find that leak!!!!!!

Easier said than done. Because they basically told Beowulf what they were planning when they requested permission to send Tsang in. That was astonishingly foolish, especially as they went ahead after being explicitly told to back off.

Even if not for that, literally thousands of people knew it was happening. The League has no sense nor enforcement of operational security, having never been in a war where military secrets mattered. They probably circulated the finalised Raging Justice op plan as a memo whose clearance list reads like it came out of Blackadder. "Fleet Admiral Rajani, Fleet Admiral Rajani's wife, Fleet Admiral Rajani's wife's friends, their families, their families' servants, their families' servants' tennis partners..." duplicated for everyone ranked Admiral or higher.