SPOILER: Go4 Discussions after AoS and IHA defeats

Howdy everybody!

It's been while since we had a full Go4 discussion to read.

Can you imagine the Go4 discussion regarding what happened to the AoS?

Have they yet received Kaitswyrth's AAR with detailed casualty lists?

How many can suggest the opening, then the topic progression?

Then if the allies manage to starve and defeat most of the IHA pretty quickly, as I've posted elsewhere (below) what their meeting might be like then?

Specifically, March 10, at 8:26 PM, in the SPOILER KAITSWYRTH's "REINFORCEMENTS" thread, or 5 pages ago on my posts list might be the quickest way to find it.

Hope you enjoy it.

Then please feel free to share your insights and comments.

All the best wishes to everyone.

L

lyonheart wrote:Howdy everybody!

It's been while since we had a full Go4 discussion to read.

Can you imagine the Go4 discussion regarding what happened to the AoS?

Have they yet received Kaitswyrth's AAR with detailed casualty lists?

How many can suggest the opening, then the topic progression?

Then if the allies manage to starve and defeat most of the IHA pretty quickly, as I've posted elsewhere (below) what their meeting might be like then?

Specifically, March 10, at 8:26 PM, in the SPOILER KAITSWYRTH's "REINFORCEMENTS" thread, or 5 pages ago on my posts list might be the quickest way to find it.

Hope you enjoy it.

Then please feel free to share your insights and comments.

All the best wishes to everyone.

L

I have wondered about that myself. To date I have not seen any evidence that the Go4 actually thinks they *COULD* lose. There were discussions earlier in the series that it would take a lot of time to build a fleet capable of challenging Charis on the seas. But they never doubted that they could do it. And Duchairn has complained multiple times about the cost of the war and how hard it is to raise funds. But although he is not happy about what he is having to do to raise funds, he knows that there have been (unpleasant) options and has not really doubted the ability of the CoG to fund the war. More recently, once the land war started, they have discussed the need to match the rifles and artillery of the ICA.

The point I am making is that as far as I can tell, the Go4 has viewed every defeat so far as a temporary setback or an inconvenience. They are not really concerned (yet) about the possibility of actually being defeated. Duchairn is probably the most pessimistic of them, but even in inner thoughts he is worried about the cost of the war, both in human terms and financial terms.

What I wonder is at what point will the Go4's mindset shift from victory to survival? We haven't yet seen their reaction to the defeat of the AoS. But I don't think that will be the tipping point. However, if Green Valley can encircle and destroy Bahrnbai's army that might do the trick.

That thinking should change in the next book IMO. Possibly not with the Army of Shiloh but very likely once Barnabai get jumped in the middle of winter.

Reasons being:

1. With the Desnair army destroyed Charis could potentially block them (and the WHOLE of Howard) from being actually able to participate in the war. First by holding Silkiah and the second is by making sea traffic difficult in the Gulf of Dohlar (done the navy already) MILITARILY this is no loss, POLITICALLY having 1/3 of the mainland now able to go effectively neutral is a bad thing for the CoGA.

2.Should the winter campaign go as expected against Barnabai the Harchong contingent is the last one left with the numbers and equipment to fight Charis.

3. The CoGA has already raised taxes, borrowed and sold off assets. They probably can tap into more money but IMO they should be near bankruptcy. If Duchairn is right about about their "war bonds at sword point" strategy I fully expect that an massive economic collapse is now unavoidable. Be interesting to see if their building spree to keep up with Charis weaponry breaks them or they realize in time they cannot keep up and give up the ability to face Charis on the field.

4. Morale. Charis has won a string of victories that have Reversed the success of the Sword of Schuler. Plus they are back into the Gulf of Dohlar with a navy that would be very hard for Thirsk to stop sinking any traffic they wish to.

IMO Duchairn is the one to gather that defeat is imminent, likely when it is staring him in the face. Part of the reason is he is the most pessimistic of the Go4, the fact he is the treasurer is the other main reason. the CoGA could probably raise another army but i doubt they could pay for it. It also gives Duchairn the first strike opportunity on Clyntahn, which he will probably need to have a chance to survive.

I realize things have been better for the Church.
I have to believe that the Righteous will continue to fight. They will raise another army. And another- and another. It will have to get really, really bad before they even think about stopping-and it hasn't yet.
The church over-reached. They will learn.
The next armies will be closer to supply and dug in.
I don't think they'll quit until they run out of men. In a struggle for God's own world- that will take a while.

We have another two or more years of Safeholdians killing each other. (Unless we get something from "Runs For" that turns the whole story arc on it's head- )

tootall wrote:I realize things have been better for the Church.
I have to believe that the Righteous will continue to fight. They will raise another army. And another- and another. It will have to get really, really bad before they even think about stopping-and it hasn't yet.
The church over-reached. They will learn.
The next armies will be closer to supply and dug in.
I don't think they'll quit until they run out of men. In a struggle for God's own world- that will take a while.

We have another two or more years of Safeholdians killing each other. (Unless we get something from "Runs For" that turns the whole story arc on it's head- )

I think CJK has it right actually though I think the psychological effect will actually be similar to what happened in Germany after it was forced to surrender after the First World War. Soldiers who fought on the front in France knew they were winning since they were deep inside French territory and only 250 km away from Paris and outright victory. They didn't care about the economic trouble at home, or about the material shortages in the front, or the logistical problems, or the fact that they'd been stuck for close to 4 years in same position give or take a few kilometers. None of the soldiers in the Army of Glacierheart or the Mighty Host of God and the Archangels really understand that they supply situation is likely to worsen the further forward they go. Nor do any of them understand that soon the church will not be able to pay them salaries or pay pensions to their families. Not until it actually happens and some mean little lay brother tells them that the needs of his family pale in comparison to the needs of the Jihad and Mother Church. But when the economic collapse inevitably occurs; when supplies stop arriving because the church's failure to pay it's bills means the various suppliers will stop supplying them with all the thousands of things the soldiers need; when factory workers, miners, farmers, fishermen, alchemists, tailors and iron smiths are forced to rebel because they being required to provide good without being paid for them and find themselves with the means to support themselves; when all this happens no amount of fundamental devotion to God, the Archangels or Mother Church will help. Yet like many of those WWI soldiers in the trenches, many of the faithful will feel as if Mother Church "betrayed" them by suing for terms since neither Harchong nor the Temple Lands had actually been invaded. For many it might not feel like defeat even though it is a defeat.

You make a very valid point in my opinion.

My hope is that the EoC finds some way to prove the Church has been based on a lie so that all but the most die-hard fanatics can be persuaded.

The 'dagger-in-the-back' legend might still be difficult to deal with.

And in the real world we see every day how difficult it is to persuade fanatics once they have decided to close their eyes and ears to outside opinions.

thanatos wrote:

tootall wrote:I realize things have been better for the Church.
I have to believe that the Righteous will continue to fight. They will raise another army. And another- and another. It will have to get really, really bad before they even think about stopping-and it hasn't yet.
The church over-reached. They will learn.
The next armies will be closer to supply and dug in.
I don't think they'll quit until they run out of men. In a struggle for God's own world- that will take a while.

We have another two or more years of Safeholdians killing each other. (Unless we get something from "Runs For" that turns the whole story arc on it's head- )

I think CJK has it right actually though I think the psychological effect will actually be similar to what happened in Germany after it was forced to surrender after the First World War. Soldiers who fought on the front in France knew they were winning since they were deep inside French territory and only 250 km away from Paris and outright victory. They didn't care about the economic trouble at home, or about the material shortages in the front, or the logistical problems, or the fact that they'd been stuck for close to 4 years in same position give or take a few kilometers. None of the soldiers in the Army of Glacierheart or the Mighty Host of God and the Archangels really understand that they supply situation is likely to worsen the further forward they go. Nor do any of them understand that soon the church will not be able to pay them salaries or pay pensions to their families. Not until it actually happens and some mean little lay brother tells them that the needs of his family pale in comparison to the needs of the Jihad and Mother Church. But when the economic collapse inevitably occurs; when supplies stop arriving because the church's failure to pay it's bills means the various suppliers will stop supplying them with all the thousands of things the soldiers need; when factory workers, miners, farmers, fishermen, alchemists, tailors and iron smiths are forced to rebel because they being required to provide good without being paid for them and find themselves with the means to support themselves; when all this happens no amount of fundamental devotion to God, the Archangels or Mother Church will help. Yet like many of those WWI soldiers in the trenches, many of the faithful will feel as if Mother Church "betrayed" them by suing for terms since neither Harchong nor the Temple Lands had actually been invaded. For many it might not feel like defeat even though it is a defeat.

Couple of points
Kaitswyrth relies on the South Daivyn River and the Charayn Canal - With the defeat of the southern armies the Charisians will take Dairnyth cutting his sea supply access and swing up behind the Snake Mountains to take Lake Langhorne and cut him off. Stalingrad 2 (one is what is going to happen in the north)
Fromt here it wouldn't be hard to cut the Holy Langhorne Canal - even if with only a cavalry force...

And another thing - I believe most people are liken Harchong to Russia but it occurs tome the Desnarians maybe be in for a peasant revolution themselves after most of their has marched off and won't be returning.....

thanatos wrote:(SNIP)

Soldiers who fought on the front in France knew they were winning since they were deep inside French territory and only 250 km away from Paris and outright victory. They didn't care about the economic trouble at home, or about the material shortages in the front, or the logistical problems, or the fact that they'd been stuck for close to 4 years in same position give or take a few kilometers.

The "stab in the back" theory is a post-war creation.

Soldiers knew that the war was over - that's why in the last few months of the war, there were just as many German soldiers surrendering as being killed or wounded. (Normally, surrendering troops is only a small fraction of the total number of lost troops.)

Similarly, despite the fact that in general, battles meant the line moved only a few kilometers, in September/October/November 1918, the front line moved an average of approximately 80 kilometers. (By comparison, the deepest penetration made during the German Spring offensive was only approximately 50 kilometers, and on a limited front.)


By late 1918, the German soldiers knew that the war was lost, and so did the German High Command (they hoped to hold the front line in France until the start of the wet season, and negotiate a peace treaty with their armies still in France).


It is only after a number of years, or the AoG armies lose battle after battle in a row, that they will be in the same situation.....

MWadwell wrote:

thanatos wrote:(SNIP)

Soldiers who fought on the front in France knew they were winning since they were deep inside French territory and only 250 km away from Paris and outright victory. They didn't care about the economic trouble at home, or about the material shortages in the front, or the logistical problems, or the fact that they'd been stuck for close to 4 years in same position give or take a few kilometers.

The "stab in the back" theory is a post-war creation.

Soldiers knew that the war was over - that's why in the last few months of the war, there were just as many German soldiers surrendering as being killed or wounded. (Normally, surrendering troops is only a small fraction of the total number of lost troops.)

Similarly, despite the fact that in general, battles meant the line moved only a few kilometers, in September/October/November 1918, the front line moved an average of approximately 80 kilometers. (By comparison, the deepest penetration made during the German Spring offensive was only approximately 50 kilometers, and on a limited front.)


By late 1918, the German soldiers knew that the war was lost, and so did the German High Command (they hoped to hold the front line in France until the start of the wet season, and negotiate a peace treaty with their armies still in France).


It is only after a number of years, or the AoG armies lose battle after battle in a row, that they will be in the same situation.....

Yup, and most of the ill will came from the economic collapse that went from the absurdly high repair fees France and England required. The occupation forces in Sarre were also not known for their friendly attitude.

And unlike for Alsace and Moselle, France had no objective right to occupy or annex one of the most productive area of Germany.

Les Boches paieront ! (Germans will pay) was the French mindset after WWI, and was almost a consequence of the revenge seeking after 1870 losses.

It is, I think, pretty obvious that Charis wont follow that pattern.