The SLN commerce raiding strategy WILL work.

pldew wrote:

Crown Loyalist wrote:
From a strategic vantage point, Manticore doesn't know anything of real value about Mesa's long term plans.

That's exactly why I think Manticoran strategic thinking could take a radical turn in the very near future. The need to learn more about the Alignment, and do anything about it, may divert too many resources to allow the GA to decisively deal with the League right now.

Crown Loyalist, I feel like we are both looking at the options in a similar way, with you coming to a "League-first", and myself to an "Alignment-first" approach. I feel confident it is the shape of the debate that will have to occur. No clue which one of us is right, if one of us is.

I think "League-first" makes more sense - deal with the problem that is clear, with a clear solution, first. While you do that, you do your best to clarify the second, murky problem so it can be dealt with. Now, if the Alignment problem becomes clear (and a solution presents itself to the Admiralties), then the priorities change - but the League is probably falling pretty quick.

RE:PLDEW

Devote resources where? Except for Mike Henke's trip to Mesa, Alignment doesn't present any targets for GA to devote resources to. War in forseeable future with Alignment will be an intelligence war. In the meantime, by all means use milatary assets to fragment League.

Don

n7axw wrote:RE:PLDEW

Devote resources where? Except for Mike Henke's trip to Mesa, Alignment doesn't present any targets for GA to devote resources to. War in forseeable future with Alignment will be an intelligence war. In the meantime, by all means use milatary assets to fragment League.

Don

Now that I think about it, when did it become policy to dismantle the League, and why should it be a strategic imperative of the GA? The SLN is not going to be able to effectively project power any time soon. 2nd Manticore proved that. The League is not much of an immediate strategic threat.

On the other hand, Haven and Manticore formed the GA due to the Alignment having provoked the Haven/Manticore and SLN/Manticore conflicts. After that, most of what is left is unknowns-locations, capabilities, etc. Yawata/Blackbird proved the Alignment does have at least limited ability to project power at Manticore and Grayson. The Alignment is an existential threat to the members of the Grand Alliance. Not knowing it's capabilities, why bog resources down in a massive open ended commitment against a lesser threat? Whatever form those resources take.

You should not turn your back on the 800-pound gorilla in the room, especially when he's already pissed off at you. The Alliance doesn't want to give the League time to consolidate its domestic politics and give time for the SLN to redress its technical shortcomings. The League's industrial might is huge, and can easily plow the Alliance under if it can close the gap.

pldew wrote:

n7axw wrote:RE:PLDEW

Devote resources where? Except for Mike Henke's trip to Mesa, Alignment doesn't present any targets for GA to devote resources to. War in forseeable future with Alignment will be an intelligence war. In the meantime, by all means use milatary assets to fragment League.

Don

Now that I think about it, when did it become policy to dismantle the League, and why should it be a strategic imperative of the GA? The SLN is not going to be able to effectively project power any time soon. 2nd Manticore proved that. The League is not much of an immediate strategic threat.

On the other hand, Haven and Manticore formed the GA due to the Alignment having provoked the Haven/Manticore and SLN/Manticore conflicts. After that, most of what is left is unknowns-locations, capabilities, etc. Yawata/Blackbird proved the Alignment does have at least limited ability to project power at Manticore and Grayson. The Alignment is an existential threat to the members of the Grand Alliance. Not knowing it's capabilities, why bog resources down in a massive open ended commitment against a lesser threat? Whatever form those resources take.

The Yawata strike and Blackbird actually show evidence to the contrary. While they were devastating, they only worked because of the complete surprise they achieved. In the book it was discussed that a squadron of BCs slipping into the inner system could have caused all that damage, and that the fact that the forces employed are the bare minimum suggest that there is not much more available to Mesa. Which is true at least until the Detweillers come online, whatever their capabilities are.
The advantage against the SL is temporary if they don't exploit it to a point the SL is no more, so they have to press it. And naval forces can't be deployed against a unknown enemy anyway.

Manticore implemented the policy of breaking up the SL as the only practical alternative to trying to defeat it. That was before Fillerta showed up but by that time the SL had essentially started an undeclared war on SEM when Crandall showed up at Spindle.
Honor’s point was that while there was no way Manticore was going to be able to defeat the SL in a straight-up fight, the system itself was so rotten that it would be possible to fracture the bonds between may of the various systems within the SL and cause the SL bureaucracy and leadership to focus on itself rather than continue what was clearly going to become a worse situation for Manticore. One of the concerns was dragging the other members of the then Manticore Alliance- including the Aldermani- into the fight.
The Lacoon plans were what was the most visible of the operations to any of the SL population though it was not as spectacular as either Byngs defeat nor certainly Crandalls defeat. Lacoon I ordered all of the Manticore flagged merchant shipping out of the League and most of the League controlled space. Lacoon II was the closing of ALL Manticore controlled wormholes to League shipping and the seizure of a number of nominally independent as well as League controlled or protectorate controlled wormholes.

That is not to day that Manticore has not been aggressive in protecting its own- like the shipping at Saltash- or moving to stop the League in other areas. The military support of uprisings on Protectorate planets and on “independent” worlds whose local control by despots or Tran-stellar puppet governments has been supported the OFS is another example.
Most of this is primarily nipping away at the leading edge of SL expansion. The Lacoon program is a direct economic attack on the SLs trade and ability to move materials.

To this point, the only thing we have seen that involves the GA- not just RMN- fighting the SL is Haven supporting the Manticore System against Fillerta. Nobody else in the GA has been shown to participate in strikes against SL holdings. The Aldermani are specifically not part of the GA to both (at least initially) keep them off the SL active radar and let them proceed with their own dealings with things like the Alignment without being SL targets.
The whole situation with Beowulf is in flux. I didn’t go back to determine if they are formal members of the GA or, at this point, “only” treaty and trade partners with Manticore with the additional linkages tied up in the agreements over the Sigma Draconis terminus. While they are certainly going to defend their own System against an SL attack, they are not threatening the SL militarily. Oh sure, they are from the perspective of the Mandarins and others in the SL, the first bolder of an avalanche. But that is still going to be a long-term thing. Despite what the Mandarins might try to paint the situation as, Beowulf isn’t yet a direct military threat to the SL and it isn’t even a real economic threat since it has neither threatened nor actually cut off any trade with ANY SL member. Its real danger is that other systems will see that an early and major member of the League can do just fine without the league (and its rules and various fees).

We have a clear foreshadowing of the potential League internal problems with the machinations of a number of Beowulf’s in-league treaty and trade partners (and direct competitors) in the scenario running up to the Beowufian Delegate’s speech announcing the plebiscite to drop its membership in the League.
The Mandarins and the SLN are clearly worried that they will not be able to contain the problems and maintain their sources of cash once a bunch of other systems discover that they can be more aggressive up to and including leaving the League if that is what will drive their own growth and power.

Whitecold wrote:
The Yawata strike and Blackbird actually show evidence to the contrary. While they were devastating, they only worked because of the complete surprise they achieved. In the book it was discussed that a squadron of BCs slipping into the inner system could have caused all that damage, and that the fact that the forces employed are the bare minimum suggest that there is not much more available to Mesa. Which is true at least until the Detweillers come online, whatever their capabilities are.
The advantage against the SL is temporary if they don't exploit it to a point the SL is no more, so they have to press it. And naval forces can't be deployed against a unknown enemy anyway.

I'm sorry, but I don't see how projecting power shows evidence of the inability to project power. Those BC squadrons never could have gotten to the inner systems of either Manticore or Grayson. The 4 battles of Yeltsin Star, and 2 Battles of Manticore, establish that.

Duckk wrote:You should not turn your back on the 800-pound gorilla in the room, especially when he's already pissed off at you. The Alliance doesn't want to give the League time to consolidate its domestic politics and give time for the SLN to redress its technical shortcomings. The League's industrial might is huge, and can easily plow the Alliance under if it can close the gap.

But what if the gorilla is shackled, and the king cobra is loose? Seems to me the League is pretty well contained, but the Alignment is not. I have a hard time seeing the League conceiving, designing, putting into service, and developing the doctrines to utilize, the units needed to face the Grand Alliance in under a decade. Thus I would call the Alignment the greater and more immediate threat.

Brigade XO wrote:Manticore implemented the policy of breaking up the SL as the only practical alternative to trying to defeat it. That was before Fillerta showed up but by that time the SL had essentially started an undeclared war on SEM when Crandall showed up at Spindle.

But before Eloise, Tom, and Co. popped in to suggest alternatives. Forming the Grand Alliance changed the situation. Learning of the existence and intentions of the Alignment changed the situation. Why would that policy not be subject to reassessment?

So instead of dealing with the League when it's at its most vulnerable, you want to ignore it until it becomes a threat, thereby ensuring a ruinously higher butcher's bill? No one even knows where to find the Alignment, so the Alliance can't deal with them anyways. Just because the Alignment is the real threat doesn't mean the League is a tiny little problem which can be dealt with later at the Alliance's leisure. Giving the League time to consolidate public support is the worst thing the Alliance can do. By whittling the League down now by breaking off the restive elements, they can work at making sure that the successor states won't enjoy the same advantages a unified League would have. Smaller League successors means they won't pose as much of a threat to the Alliance even if they did choose to prosecute the war, and the Alliance can make peace with the ones who chose not to.