(SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat

@ Lyonheart

Other than how fast bad news will spread, I actually agree with what you say, the actions you list are exactly what should be considered by the CoGA in MILITARY terms of winning the jihad. they are also quite logical.

IMO Clyntahn, who is right at this moment the driving force in the CoGA is not sane, reasonable or a military mind.

Clyntahn's reaction in the past to having his military forces obliterated have NEVER been reasonable, usually there is an epic tantrum where he goes on a rampage within his own quarters. The last time Desnair failed him (their fleet getting creamed) He ordered every member of the commanding admiral's family picked up and shipped to Zion. Somehow I doubt he will be any less vengeful once he hears of this debacle, especially as:

1. They failed him once before (Think about Earl Thirsk)

2. This time it really WAS gross incompetence (the mass of supplies backed up because Desnair was unable to transport them forward, incredible sluggishness)

3. Clyntahn will understand that if Desnair can get itself sidelined from the jihad, OTHER nations will try the same thing. King Zhames was thinking this last year.

The last point is IMO the clincher, Clyntahn WILL see any nation that tries to be neutral as an enemy and act accordingly. Besides its almost Clynathn's job to make bad situation into a disaster. Where the "act accordingly" historically meant:

1. Attempted destruction of Charis
2. The Zion Massacres
3. Public torture of captured Charisian admiral and crew
4. Sword of Schuler
5. Rakurai bombings of Charis

Bottom line is everyone here is thinking that Clyntahn will make reasonable and logical decisions. I remember how surprising the Sword of Schuler was and how devastating it was to Siddarmark AND... how much of a godsend it was for Merlin and Charis. I am placing my bets squarely on Clyntahn doing something unbelievably stupid again.

Finally your comment on how long it would take for the bad news to reach Clyntahn. Yes it will take longer, there are however wyverns, men on horses (or foot) NTM spies who will get the details to Clyntahn, especially when the CoGA is footing the bill. For that matter I fully expect Merlin's pamphlets to HAPPILY spread the word as soon as practical just to demoralize the enemy.

Mmccoy61

I seriously doubt that the Desnairian Cavalry is all aristocracy, (unless we have a Polish situation where 10% of the population are 'aristocrats' when maybe.) In a purely feudal situation knights were all Aristocrats, of a sort, but none of those situations ever had a serious standing army. Once we get into standing armies the Aristos don't want to be troopers, on exercise and getting ordered about all the time; it's beneath their dignity. Also the need to pay for your own horse etc goes. Plenty of grooms, farmhands, tenant farmer's sons will have the necessary experience with horses. The officers, of course, will be a different matter. The two Guard regiments mentioned were noted as stuffed with Aristos. That in itself suggests 'normal' cavalry regiments weren't.

Conceded.

I guess I was too focused on how socially conservative Desnair and Harchong are described. That was one reason I asked if anyone knew how large Desnair's aristocracy is. But given Safehold's technical differences from Earth, it seems I'm overestimating their dependence on aristocrats to fill cavalry roles.

Mark

Randomiser wrote:Mmccoy61

I seriously doubt that the Desnairian Cavalry is all aristocracy, (unless we have a Polish situation where 10% of the population are 'aristocrats' when maybe.) In a purely feudal situation knights were all Aristocrats, of a sort, but none of those situations ever had a serious standing army. Once we get into standing armies the Aristos don't want to be troopers, on exercise and getting ordered about all the time; it's beneath their dignity. Also the need to pay for your own horse etc goes. Plenty of grooms, farmhands, tenant farmer's sons will have the necessary experience with horses. The officers, of course, will be a different matter. The two Guard regiments mentioned were noted as stuffed with Aristos. That in itself suggests 'normal' cavalry regiments weren't.

Hello CJK,

Excellent points as usual!

What's the worst thing Clyntahn could do from the point of view of the rest of the Go4 and the temple, at the same time being the best thing from Merlin and the inner circle's?

To me, blaming Harless, Hankey, and Hennet NTM the whole upper Desnari military establishment, then executing Hennet as proof after he confessed, would easily fit the bill of ticking the rest of Desnar off; which might provoke Clyntahn to excommunicate the whole Desnar aristocracy (or just those defending the H's etc), effectively taking Desnar off the board for the rest of this war, even though they are still staunch TL's.

This might provide the trigger for Duchairn's coup, though I had the impression Duchairn preferred to move in the winter when Zion was more isolated.

OTOH, the rest of the Go3 may have effectively written Desnar and the rest of Howard off, with the exception of southern Harchong, so it just becomes one more charge when Der Tag does come, only Trynair now joins Duchairn and Allayn.

Regarding OWL's broadsheets, we don't know the rate at which they deliver new information, but it has to less than the semaphore or it would be proof they're demonic.

That's been the subject of previous posts, but further exploration is definitely needed.

L

CJK wrote:@ Lyonheart

Other than how fast bad news will spread, I actually agree with what you say, the actions you list are exactly what should be considered by the CoGA in MILITARY terms of winning the jihad. they are also quite logical.

IMO Clyntahn, who is right at this moment the driving force in the CoGA is not sane, reasonable or a military mind.

Clyntahn's reaction in the past to having his military forces obliterated have NEVER been reasonable, usually there is an epic tantrum where he goes on a rampage within his own quarters. The last time Desnair failed him (their fleet getting creamed) He ordered every member of the commanding admiral's family picked up and shipped to Zion. Somehow I doubt he will be any less vengeful once he hears of this debacle, especially as:

1. They failed him once before (Think about Earl Thirsk)

2. This time it really WAS gross incompetence (the mass of supplies backed up because Desnair was unable to transport them forward, incredible sluggishness)

3. Clyntahn will understand that if Desnair can get itself sidelined from the jihad, OTHER nations will try the same thing. King Zhames was thinking this last year.

The last point is IMO the clincher, Clyntahn WILL see any nation that tries to be neutral as an enemy and act accordingly. Besides its almost Clynathn's job to make bad situation into a disaster. Where the "act accordingly" historically meant:

1. Attempted destruction of Charis
2. The Zion Massacres
3. Public torture of captured Charisian admiral and crew
4. Sword of Schuler
5. Rakurai bombings of Charis

Bottom line is everyone here is thinking that Clyntahn will make reasonable and logical decisions. I remember how surprising the Sword of Schuler was and how devastating it was to Siddarmark AND... how much of a godsend it was for Merlin and Charis. I am placing my bets squarely on Clyntahn doing something unbelievably stupid again.

Finally your comment on how long it would take for the bad news to reach Clyntahn. Yes it will take longer, there are however wyverns, men on horses (or foot) NTM spies who will get the details to Clyntahn, especially when the CoGA is footing the bill. For that matter I fully expect Merlin's pamphlets to HAPPILY spread the word as soon as practical just to demoralize the enemy.

That is the main reason I focused down on the more political side a statement of writing writing Desnair off, though lets be honest with Charis back in the Gulf of Dohlar it pretty much could be a write off the whole of Howard in militaristic terms. Clyntahn and IMO Trynair will not like that one bit POLITICALLY however. That is a huge chunk of people who could theoretically try going neutral with very little effort UNLESS something is done to dissuade them.

By neutral I mean give the CoGA everything they want but argue that they are unable to get their troops into battle any time soon or at all and the equipment they currently have is not up to standard. The fact this is true does not alter that the entirety of Howard now has a VALID reason not to join the Jihad. IMO Trynair and Clyntahn will look at the political consequences of having that many nations knocked out of the war as untenable. King Zhames for example will probably be very eager to take the escape route so fortuitously provided.

I actually expect Trynair to side with Clyntahn in this discussion, whether this follows into one of Clyntahn's "brilliant" solutions would be more problematic. At the very least I expect there will be more money thrown at the problem to keep Howard in the war despite the fact it is a total waste in military terms.

It would not surprise me however if Clyntahn has Desnair does hit and run raids in rear areas of Siddarmark, much like what the Solarian league thought to do with their obsolete ships in the Harrington series. Its not like he CARES if they die in droves, only that they fight and die for him.

Even communicating to anyone in Howard to give such orders is going to be difficult once there is a strong presence in the Gulf of Dohlar and the peninsula is cut completely. The empire probably can't close it totally to small fast ships in numbers, if the Church is willing to expend them, but communication certainly is going to be slow, intermittent, and difficult.

CJK wrote:...
It would not surprise me however if Clyntahn has Desnair does hit and run raids in rear areas of Siddarmark, much like what the Solarian league thought to do with their obsolete ships in the Harrington series. Its not like he CARES if they die in droves, only that they fight and die for him.

lyonheart wrote:Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for thinking Dohlar survives, since quite a few fans want it burned and blitzed, then plowed with salt etc.

OTOH, the progressive element may be too small for it to survive in 'old' Dohlar, and may need a new start, such as on Greentree island, where it would be a much larger fraction of the society.

Siddarmark may be rebuilding after the war, but I suspect they will have more will, more tools, more help and more capital for poor Dohlar to ever really have a chance to compete.

I doubt Dohlar is going to have any imperial ambitions towards Desnar, partly because it would be like the frog trying to swallow the horse (besides assuming no 'territorial surgery' on the frog first), but mainly since it would have to get past Silkiah (unless it takes the more expensive sea route) which will have treaties with the allies, NTM because its no longer demilitarized, will probably defend itself quite handily, quite aside what its allies might do.

L

I'd like for Dohlar to survive partly to provide a counterweight to Charis. I think that the progressives will survive because (for now) they are vital for the military, and both major commanders (Thirsk and Ahlverez) now realize this and (IMHO) will be cooperating to protect them. Once the war is over, assuming Dohlar isn't destroyed, I think that Thirsk, et al, will form a political faction that will push development. The king won't be overthrown, but become more of a figurehead (if he isn't already).

Holy war generates a lot of hate that won't go away once the Temple is overthrown. Siddarmark has been too damaged and I think will have too much internal strife to have much interest in foreign operations for several years.

I don't see Dohlar trying to conquer Desnair. I'm thinking more about how the European powers leaned on China in the 19th century. Dohlar will need resources, Desnair is large enough to have them and backward enough to be nicely weak. Look for Dohlar to invent gunboat diplomacy.

jms

PeterZ wrote:I can see Silkiah managing that with heavy, heavy help from Siddermark and Charis. The easiest way to do it is for that territory to be ceded to Silkiah as part of Desnair's surrender terms.

If Silkiah controlled the Gulf of Jahras, they can build another, wider, deeper canal connecting the Gulf of Jahras to Salthar Bay through a likewise expanded Salthar canal. The Gulf of Jahras is a much better protected anchorage than Silkiah Bay. Expanding the canal network as described would mean a massive increase in wealth for Silkiah.

That might be a suitable bribe to bring Silkiah on board.

jmseeley wrote:
Siddarmark's taken a lot of damage. Once the war is over, it might be easier and cheaper for them to enlist Slikiah as an ally and buffer state and support their expansion to the Gulf of Jahras.

Thinking about it, Silkiah may also be in a position to develop after the war. With dynamite and steam shovels available they could expand the Salthar Canal and play the same role as Suez did on Old Earth.

I agree with you about Dohlar. It's probably more about how much damage it takes before Rahnyld throws in the towel. Assuming he's the one who makes the decisions. Thirsk has referred to him as a 'useless sot', so he may be more of a figurehead, As far as surrendering: if the ICA swings West to take Dairnyth it would cut-off Dohlar from it's 'allies' and the Inquisition. That might make it easier for them to surrender.

Short of a successful revolution, I don't see Harchong embracing the new changes voluntarily. Their more likely to retreat into isolationism (or at least try). I wouldn't be all that surprised if the die-hard faction of the CoGA retreated there.

jms

Another thing: if no one country control the Gulf of Jahras, and it instead becomes a major trade route, then it becomes a de facto international waterway. That would make it simpler for Charis to retain Jahras or Howard Island as a forward naval base and coaling station.

But my guess is that it will be simpler to expand the existing Salthar Canal. The Gulf of Jahras isn't that close to the canal at it's closest, and the shortest land path skirts a low mountain range. Not good for a canal route.

jms

Randomiser wrote:Mmccoy61

I seriously doubt that the Desnairian Cavalry is all aristocracy, (unless we have a Polish situation where 10% of the population are 'aristocrats' when maybe.) In a purely feudal situation knights were all Aristocrats, of a sort, but none of those situations ever had a serious standing army. Once we get into standing armies the Aristos don't want to be troopers, on exercise and getting ordered about all the time; it's beneath their dignity. Also the need to pay for your own horse etc goes. Plenty of grooms, farmhands, tenant farmer's sons will have the necessary experience with horses. The officers, of course, will be a different matter. The two Guard regiments mentioned were noted as stuffed with Aristos. That in itself suggests 'normal' cavalry regiments weren't.

Even if the army can be rebuilt there won't be any way to move it into action. I'll bet that Silkiah will be closed to them soon, and the ICN will close the Gulf of Dohlar. In theory they could cross Salthar Bay and go through Dohlar, but was vetoed in MTaT, and to put it mildly, Dohlaran opinion of Desnarian martial prowess has only gone down since then. And of course, it would only happen over Ahlvarez's dead body.

Another issue - who's gonna feed it? Their crappy logistics are the biggest single reason for the last catastrophe. And none of the officers who learned that lesson are available to make sure it doesn't happen again.

All things considered, I think Desnair will be fighting a defensive war, with a little privateering on the side. They really can't do anything else in time to make a difference. With lots of assistance from the Church and Dohlar they might be able to do better, but those powers won't have the resources to spare from their own battles for survival.

jms

If the whole of Howard is cut off from the CoGA, I wonder how long or how many more armies it will take for the CoGA to realize they are on the losing side of the jihad. Keep in mind that Howard is around 1/3 of the mainland and Siddarmark itself is big chunk of real estate no longer under CoGA control. Looking at the map that's close to half of the mainland.

Then there is how many armies are left in the field that are actually able to fight against Charis. We have Cahnyr Kaitswyrth who is already on the run thanks to Eastshare. Bahrnabai Wyrshym who is about to get a surprise winter campaign courtesy of Green Valley. That leaves the large Harchong contingent: which REALLY needs Magwair's officers to lead it because after Desnair's performance I would definitely not want Harchong nobles in charge.

Would it be correct to say that if the Harchong contingent is destroyed, the CoGA has effectively lost the jihad? I certainly think they have used up all their money and lost serious credibility in the eyes of the ruling kings by now. NTM every other nation is going to see that Charis just pasted the CoGA forces in just as spectacular fashion as the Sword of Schuler.