(SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat

jgnfld wrote:Yes. The detour is necessary as the Charisans have disabled/blockaded (the manner of closing is unstated) the eastern end of the Salthar Canal. Also everything has to go by sea on the Gulf of Dohlar side for at least a portion of its journey which will surely come into play next book in the manner you suggest.

Indeed it will come into play. If he ICN control the canals, then the River Class boats get access to the Gulf of Dohlar. Defending Silkiah will be a matter blocking the roads/paths on either side of the North Watch mountains and controlling the sea lanes around Silkiah.

I doubt Desnsair has the chops to defeat ICA blocking forces once properly placed.

PeterZ wrote:The international politics depend on whether Clyntahn survives or not. I happen to suspect Clyntahn will die. Based on that premise, let us project a bit.

Howard will be lost to the CoGA. Even assuming Duchairn sues for peace and negotiates acceptible terms with Charis, they cannot project force or compel the nations on Howard. Siddermak will want some cushion to prevent another invasion. That means taking North Watch, Hankey and Kohlman from Desnair to the South. To the North that likely means occupying Sahrdan and the Barony of Charlz.

Siddermark might get their Northern cushion this summer. They will likely push their Southern border down after the jihad is over. If Siddermark does this, how long before South Harchong decides to push all the way to the Desnair Mountains? I suspect that's where Desnair's gold is located.

Dohlar will spend the next decade recovering from what Siddermark and Charis are about to do to it. They have no place to expand and likely don't have an abundance of natural resources. Their best route to prosperity is to be a value added economy much like Japan and Germany after WWII. In many ways they would benefit most from a heavy Charisian involvement in the Gulf of Dohlar. The irony is that the aftermath of the jihad will likely leave Dohlar as a merchantile powerhouse just as King Rahnyld wanted. Of course he also envisioned a naval pressence to go along with it. With the ICN to patrol the Gulf, the RDN doesn't have to bear that expense.

So the end result of the defeats will be the same as any other massive change. The nations will either adapt or die. dohlar was well along towards making the necessary adaptations. Desnair....not so much.

Siddarmark's taken a lot of damage. Once the war is over, it might be easier and cheaper for them to enlist Slikiah as an ally and buffer state and support their expansion to the Gulf of Jahras.

Thinking about it, Silkiah may also be in a position to develop after the war. With dynamite and steam shovels available they could expand the Salthar Canal and play the same role as Suez did on Old Earth.

I agree with you about Dohlar. It's probably more about how much damage it takes before Rahnyld throws in the towel. Assuming he's the one who makes the decisions. Thirsk has referred to him as a 'useless sot', so he may be more of a figurehead, As far as surrendering: if the ICA swings West to take Dairnyth it would cut-off Dohlar from it's 'allies' and the Inquisition. That might make it easier for them to surrender.

Short of a successful revolution, I don't see Harchong embracing the new changes voluntarily. Their more likely to retreat into isolationism (or at least try). I wouldn't be all that surprised if the die-hard faction of the CoGA retreated there.

jms

I can see Silkiah managing that with heavy, heavy help from Siddermark and Charis. The easiest way to do it is for that territory to be ceded to Silkiah as part of Desnair's surrender terms.

If Silkiah controlled the Gulf of Jahras, they can build another, wider, deeper canal connecting the Gulf of Jahras to Salthar Bay through a likewise expanded Salthar canal. The Gulf of Jahras is a much better protected anchorage than Silkiah Bay. Expanding the canal network as described would mean a massive increase in wealth for Silkiah.

That might be a suitable bribe to bring Silkiah on board.

jmseeley wrote:
Siddarmark's taken a lot of damage. Once the war is over, it might be easier and cheaper for them to enlist Slikiah as an ally and buffer state and support their expansion to the Gulf of Jahras.

Thinking about it, Silkiah may also be in a position to develop after the war. With dynamite and steam shovels available they could expand the Salthar Canal and play the same role as Suez did on Old Earth.

I agree with you about Dohlar. It's probably more about how much damage it takes before Rahnyld throws in the towel. Assuming he's the one who makes the decisions. Thirsk has referred to him as a 'useless sot', so he may be more of a figurehead, As far as surrendering: if the ICA swings West to take Dairnyth it would cut-off Dohlar from it's 'allies' and the Inquisition. That might make it easier for them to surrender.

Short of a successful revolution, I don't see Harchong embracing the new changes voluntarily. Their more likely to retreat into isolationism (or at least try). I wouldn't be all that surprised if the die-hard faction of the CoGA retreated there.

jms

Hi PeterZ,

Your 'indeed' is seconded.

Trying to defeat the ICN in the Gulf of Dohlar would require building a modern fleet, then sending it around Howard to get there.

I strongly doubt Desnar can afford rebuilding its navy, ie to steel steamship standard, even if it knew how, given the subsidies it required from Duchairn even before its army failed so miserably, then sailing it around Howard without results as bad as the first time on Safehold, or Russia's Second Pacific Squadron under Rozhestvensky almost one hundred ten years ago.

The North Watch mountain range appears to cut the possible front line from the Silkiah west border to the southern end of the north western bay of the Gulf of Jahras, of around 300 miles to just ~7 passes including both shores or less that considerably reduces the number of defenders required.

That makes a far better 'natural border' for Silkiah than the current border, while giving it the northern end of the North Watch Province including the city of Khreos and its peninsula (plus the apparent Desnari tip of the Silkiah peninsula now dubbed Ahna's point) which might encourage Silkiah to join the allies, at least in some fashion though I suspect it will be to join, given the allies political and spiritual liberation etc.

L

PeterZ wrote:

jgnfld wrote:Yes. The detour is necessary as the Charisans have disabled/blockaded (the manner of closing is unstated) the eastern end of the Salthar Canal. Also everything has to go by sea on the Gulf of Dohlar side for at least a portion of its journey which will surely come into play next book in the manner you suggest.

Indeed it will come into play. If he ICN control the canals, then the River Class boats get access to the Gulf of Dohlar. Defending Silkiah will be a matter blocking the roads/paths on either side of the North Watch mountains and controlling the sea lanes around Silkiah.

I doubt Desnsair has the chops to defeat ICA blocking forces once properly placed.

Hi CJK.

Your supposed solution is a recipe to simply repeat the disaster, since where or how will they learn what not to do if none of their soldiers return to tell them?

Does Clyntahn even know what happened?

Given how long it took to find out what happened to Kaitswyrth despite a direct semaphore line makes it extremely unlikely the Go4 have a clue how to avoid having the Desnari repeat all their mistakes.

NTM I doubt Duchairn will have the marks to spare to finance another army, or be willing to risk the money on the Desnari, even if Allayn were willing.

Nor do I think Clyntahn will have much time to threaten the nobility with excommunication before Desnar's semaphore line to Zion is cut off (the wise secretly happy for it) and left to itself.

First of all, we don't know even the size of the IDA, which given the surprisingly small size of the rest of our sample so far, ie the regular IHA (471K of 194M = ~1/412 or ~0.243%), the republic with the pre-SoS active RSA at 1.39% (1.8M of 129.5M) and the pre-empire Royal Chisholm Army at ~ 1.67% of the population (250K of 15M); one might argue the larger the population the smaller the population fraction the active army is, which isn't too surprising.

Given how expensive cavalry are, I think most posters wouldn't be surprised if the IDA was nearer the IHA's (69% cavalry) size than the RSA (pre-SoS cavalry %?).

Then there's the question of how spread out whatever army is left over several million square miles.

Since the AoJ was probably created from the nearest, ie northern army units, any replacements will have to come from much further south; if it takes 3-4 month's to just to march to North Watch province (leaving aside if its still Desnari by then), it 'll be fall again with winter ready to screw things up again, NTM if the allies are already at the temple by then, why bother?

Given Dohlar produces more modern weapons far easier than Desnar with only 56% of the population speaks volumes about Desnar's industrial inefficiency, which Magwair acknowledges when he writes off even bothering to try to improve Desnar's new weapon production, nominally the most modern industry Desnar has since Magwair and Duchairn paid for it yet obviously now one of the worst investments of the jihad from their perspective.

Given the fact the IDA made no changes to arming its cavalry is quite an indictment of how incompetent the IDA truly is, despite all the reports regarding modern weapons effects, to say nothing of how they're going to fix their logistic system when they don't know its broken in the first place, despite 200 years history screaming at them.

Thanks to the systemic corruption detailed in AMF and HFaF, we see Desnar paying little effective attention to the direct orders of the Go4 (giving some indication of its response to a threat of excommunication), indicated again by the pitiful rate of rifle and field artillery production.

Are there 2-4 dozen major bases in the interior besides the border and frontier defense units?

So a response to any rebellion is less than a 5day away?

We don't know yet.

The map implication has been that Desnar felt most threatened by Southern Harchong before the jihad.

If the 'new army' has to march 3-4 month's just to assemble at the northern frontier, it will be fall again before they become threatening.

Given the size of armies and what weapons the allies will have by then, that IDA army would have even less of a chance than Harless did.

Remember the IDA infantry regiments were created solely on the orders of the Go4, and rather poorly with only a third actually having rifles, so DE and EHM each had around 3 times as many despite armies a third Dohlar's size.

Dilbert might point out repeating the same inputs and expecting different results is insane.

Expecting an army even worse armed to do any better is simple insanity, and while Clyntahn certainly has his moments, why should Desnar repeat theirs?

We have no textev of any inquisitor being a competent general, let alone a Desnari inquisitor.

We have no evidence of any competent Desnari general.

The odds of finding a competent Desnari inquisitor general are vanishingly small IMO.

Given the ICN in the Gulf of Dohlar, the odds of any non Desnari Clyntahn might pick to get to Desnar are moot at best.

Even if there were a competent Desnari inquisitor general, their greatest weakness is the ineptitude of their quartermasters.

Again, the fact is that the semaphore link to the temple is already at risk, and when cut Desnar will be able to ignore Clyntahn and whatever Go4 decrees it pleases.

Of course, that will indicate Desnar suspects the allies will win this little jihad or world war, and Clyntahn might denounce the whole of it as heretical, even if he manages to survive Rhobair's putsch, but will anyone in Desnar really know or care?

That's a problem for the future, and Desnar has yet to demonstrate any competence in dealing with it.

L

CJK wrote:Can Desnair fall to the wayside in this conflict? IMO Siddarmark will be pretty tempted for some payback and given their pathetic performance across the board they CAN leave them be for a few years while they secure the rest of their borders.

NTM that the nobility of Desnair is trapped, if they DON'T fight for the CoGA they invalidate they right to rule. A simple excommunication by the CoGA and boom, all the faithful will be obliged to turn on their lords and masters. Lets not forget that a massive portion of their nobility are also members of the priesthood, or that the Inquisition will have far better penetration of Desnair than they did any previous island nation or even Siddaramark given the social structure.

IMO its more likely that Clyntahn will send orders to get another army ready, and this time HE will select a competent General (ie a fanatical Inquisitor) who will carry out the Jihad to Clyntahn's satisfaction. If he is reasonable he will get a few of Magwair's men to help but they are probably stuck fixing Harchong's contribution the the Jihad.

First Post for me.

I have a question and a couple of observations.

How large is the Desnairian aristocracy?

I've seen references in Earth's history for Poland having an 'Aristocratic class' of around 10% of its population. England is often listed as 3%, and Germany (or the Germanies) at around 5%. Given the population of 148 million for Desnair, that would imply anywhere from 4.5 to almost 15 million aristocrats. Understand that I'm not asserting that all of them have titles or lands, but they would all belong to the 'Aristocratic Class'. Even 1% of the population gives you around 1.5 million aristos.

The Desnairian segment of the Army of Justice was 225,000, of which I believe 70% or around 150,000 was cavalry. Cavalary is traditionally drawn from the aristocracy, so that the lost of a majority of the Desnairian cavalry means that they just lost most of those 150,000 troops from the aristocratic class, not just the 5,000 officers. The smaller the absolute number of aristocrats, the worse that loss is going to hurt.

It also means that they may be force to draw much more heavily on infantry forces, and thus commoners in any future army Desnair might field. How is that going to shape their domestic situation?

Mark

Welcome aboard, Mark. Glad you dropped a post and hope to see more.

I don't recall any TextEv about the proportion of aristocrats in Safeholdian societies. Don't even recall any RFC post on that topic. Per chance, our beloved author can drop a missive on the subject in those rare moments that he might have free. Mind, I would prefer he finish HFQ. Still if such a post enables a more rapid completion, by all means post away!

mmccoy61 wrote:First Post for me.

I have a question and a couple of observations.

How large is the Desnairian aristocracy?

I've seen references in Earth's history for Poland having an 'Aristocratic class' of around 10% of its population. England is often listed as 3%, and Germany (or the Germanies) at around 5%. Given the population of 148 million for Desnair, that would imply anywhere from 4.5 to almost 15 million aristocrats. Understand that I'm not asserting that all of them have titles or lands, but they would all belong to the 'Aristocratic Class'. Even 1% of the population gives you around 1.5 million aristos.

The Desnairian segment of the Army of Justice was 225,000, of which I believe 70% or around 150,000 was cavalry. Cavalary is traditionally drawn from the aristocracy, so that the lost of a majority of the Desnairian cavalry means that they just lost most of those 150,000 troops from the aristocratic class, not just the 5,000 officers. The smaller the absolute number of aristocrats, the worse that loss is going to hurt.

It also means that they may be force to draw much more heavily on infantry forces, and thus commoners in any future army Desnair might field. How is that going to shape their domestic situation?

Mark

mmccoy61 wrote:First Post for me.

I have a question and a couple of observations.

How large is the Desnairian aristocracy?

I've seen references in Earth's history for Poland having an 'Aristocratic class' of around 10% of its population. England is often listed as 3%, and Germany (or the Germanies) at around 5%. Given the population of 148 million for Desnair, that would imply anywhere from 4.5 to almost 15 million aristocrats. Understand that I'm not asserting that all of them have titles or lands, but they would all belong to the 'Aristocratic Class'. Even 1% of the population gives you around 1.5 million aristos.

The Desnairian segment of the Army of Justice was 225,000, of which I believe 70% or around 150,000 was cavalry. Cavalary is traditionally drawn from the aristocracy, so that the lost of a majority of the Desnairian cavalry means that they just lost most of those 150,000 troops from the aristocratic class, not just the 5,000 officers. The smaller the absolute number of aristocrats, the worse that loss is going to hurt.

It also means that they may be force to draw much more heavily on infantry forces, and thus commoners in any future army Desnair might field. How is that going to shape their domestic situation?

Mark

Safehold populations are quite more dense than their earth equivalents in period due to much better sanitation rules (Pasqual book). Also there is high yields in farming (better methods and 3 rounds/year in some places).
Nobility is always a factor of land owning (in fact in the 15xx Germanies, if you owned land, you were nobility de facto). Church own a big chunk of that too.
Accordingly, I would expect the nobility to represent an even lower percentage of the population, say 1% or less.

Very round numbers.

7 million Desnairian aristocrats.

100,000 a year.

half are women.

a quarter million losses is several years worth of aristocratic men, dead. HOwever: The statement above that cavalry is formed from the aristocratic class, as opposed to the officers, is a bit in need of textev.

If Silkiah falls to Charis, then Desnair, Sodar, and Delferahk are isolated, and subject to rearrangement.

As regards cavalry being an aristocratic institution: I am assuming, perhaps incorrectly, that between class prejudice and the fact that training cavalry was expensive, most cavalry troopers including the average enlisted man, would be drawn from the 'upper classes' i.e. aristocrats. That may not be the case here. I believe that in Desnair, as in most of Earth's history, cavalry is viewed as an elite service. Most of the time learning to ride, use a lance or sabre, and outfit a cavarlyman was much too expensive for the average commoner. And it drew on skills that they simply didn't acquire, in comparison to aristocrats who did learn to ride from an early age, and for which military skills played to their strengths, as well as fit their image as nobles.

Again, I may be making incorrect assumptions, but given the emphasis that Desnair places on social class, I just find it difficult to believe that they would permit commoners to join cavalry units. Isn't that why they were so reluctant to field infantry in the first place?

The mental image that I have of Desnairian society is a relatively large aristocratic class that owns all the land, a comparatively small 'middle class' that forms middle management and performs all the skilled labor, and a very large population of serfs that does all the grunt work. Someone made the comparison to Poland in the 1600's, and I see the parallels. I don't know if they truly are comparable, but I find it difficult to see the Desnairians permitting too many commoners to become cavalry, which in context are the equivalent of knights. Infantry is much more the place for commoners as befit ones social inferiors.

Mark

phillies wrote:Very round numbers.

7 million Desnairian aristocrats.

100,000 a year.

half are women.

a quarter million losses is several years worth of aristocratic men, dead. HOwever: The statement above that cavalry is formed from the aristocratic class, as opposed to the officers, is a bit in need of textev.

If Silkiah falls to Charis, then Desnair, Sodar, and Delferahk are isolated, and subject to rearrangement.