Montrose Toast wrote:Some people think that LAMA is slow and did not need all the details it had - I don't.
[As you read the following, keep in mind that only the Northern Charis force in Siddarmark has a member of the inner circle to provide prompt intel. The rest can only be provided intel from apparently more conventional means with all the delays that entails.]
McGuiness wrote:I expected Hanth to be inducted into the inner circle by now. He's done spectacularly well, but having access to SNARCs would enable him to intercept and destroy Ahlverez, whose forces are exhausted and low on supplies after a forced retreat of hundreds of miles over terrible roads. The seijin spy network will probably slip him some intelligence of where Ahlverez will try to cross the ICA lines.
Eastshare has shown that he's tactically brilliant, if a bit too complex at times. He could have sat still while the Desnairans starved without blockading the woods and getting chewed up in hand-to-hand fighting with bayonets and spared the Army of Cliff Peak a lot of casualties. He really needs a senior member of his staff in the inner circle, but Ahbraim Zhevons and the "seijin spy network" have proven sufficient so far.
Montrose Toast wrote:I'm looking at the maps and seeing the setup for the next book [HFQ] where:
1. Northern COG encircled and destroyed ala Stalingrad in a winter offensive. Placing the line in the north on the Border States.
McGuiness wrote:BGV - He's going to show what you can do with up to the second info on an enemy who never imagined he'd be coming for them in the winter. He's about to pull a "Battle of Trenton" on the AoSG. Those trapped at the north end of the Sylmahn Gap will be the lucky ones - the survivors will surrender. Those driven from Guarnak will find the weather a worse enemy than BGV as they retreat towards Lake City in the teeth of a Siddarmark winter.
Montrose Toast wrote:2. Central COG broken and either destroyed or retreating into the Border States along the Charyn Canal.
McGuiness wrote:The western Glacierheart front will remain static this winter, until DE hooks up with the survivors of the Army of Cliff Peak and moves north to destroy the rest of Kaitswyrth's AoG, possibly after chasing Ahlverez into Hanth's positions, but leaving enough troops at the site of Fort Tairys to keep that line of invasion closed. We still don't know where all of the 200,000 men of the Second Expeditionary Force have gone, so somebody may clean Kaitswyrth's clock before winter sets in, driving him north towards Lake City with no supply lines left at all.
If not, by early next summer when the Haarahld VIIs arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar, Kaitswyrth will lose his southern supply route, so his only options are to retreat into the border states, or head north to Lake City, running lower and lower on supplies all the way. He won't make it.
Montrose Toast wrote:3. With the destruction of the Desnairan Field Army and Hanth advancing to the north combined with their being isolated and loosing their Navy - civil war in Desnair taking them out of the fight.
McGuiness wrote:I've long postulated that the elimination of the vast numbers of the aristocracy in the Desnairan cavalry posed a threat to the stability of the Desnairan empire when they were inevitably defeated. Since thousands and thousands of second, third, and fourth sons, and probably several thousand heirs to Desnairan estates have been killed, there's a power vacuum that's going to lead to extensive internal strife. Whether this turns into a civil war, or merely isolated fighting, the disorganization that results means it's going to be very difficult for Desnair to raise another army to send into the meat grinder. It's doubtful that they learned much with so few survivors, all who have to get past Hanth to retreat homeward. The Delthak is probably going to block the upper reaches of the Somyr river and blow the bridge that spans it, further complicating the Desnairan supply lines. Several other ironclads are soon likely to be swarming the Gulf of Jahras and all along the western coast of Desnair clear down to Delfarahk, which is why the ICN plans to set up a coaling station on Samson's Land.
Montrose Toast wrote:4. With the escape of the Dohlar Army to Dohlar, the denunciation of Ahlverez by that punk Desnairan aide resulting in the Inquisition going after him, His change in attitude toward Thirsk and an army that is very loyal, combined with Thirsk's Navy being neutralized by KHVIIs and cutdowns. Coup by Thirsk/Ahlverez taking Dohlar out of the fight and becoming Neutral, allied with Charis, and/or in civil war.
McGuiness wrote:There's no guarantee that Ahlverez will escape into Dohlar - the MTaT map shows the high road to Everytyn leading right through Trevyr, which Hanth has captured and certainly fortified. Eastshare can take the high road and make good time trying to arrive in time cut him off as well.
Should he successfully retreat into Dohlar, the coup you refer to would more likely occur next summer when the ICN comes calling at Gorath Bay, sinks the screw galleys and the rest of the NoG using the Haarahld VIIs and Rottweilers, then captures King Ronald and hangs him. A whole bunch of inquisitors are going to die - so many that Dohlar may actually be able to sue for terms and surrender, if they so choose. Otherwise I'd expect them to stay at home while Hanth guards the border and Eastshare finishes off Kaitswyrth. The final battle should occur in northwest Siddarmark, when BGV meets up with Eastshare and faces the millions of Harchongese, by which time we should see the first machine guns introduced to great effect.
Montrose Toast wrote:5. Eastshare advancing to the southern Border States after defeating Kaitsworth but failing to block Ahlverez's escape to Dohlar.
McGuiness wrote:Eastshare may yet catch Ahlverez - after all, he has much better roads to reach Thesmar. Then does Eastshare head north to meet BGV who should be sweeping NW towards Lake City? The Border States are huge, and currently harbor over over 1.5 million Harchongese serfs who are being turned into soldiers. They won't be good ones, but they'll reach Lake City before Eastshare can, since he'll be liberating Cliff Peak and Westmarch, while destroying Kaitswyrth on the way. I don't expect him to head into the border states, although sending large raiding forces to blow the locks on the Holy Langhorne canal and burn supplies would be an excellent strategy.
Montrose Toast wrote:6. Hanth failing to block Ahlverez as well and moving into Silkiah to cut off the land route between Howard and Haven.
McGuiness wrote:Hanth is sitting on Ahlverez's main line of retreat, and Ahlverez doesn't know it. Neither does Hanth, but I'm sure he's dug in at Trevyr. The ironclads - probably the Delthak all by itself will blow the bridge over the Somyr river and block the Desnairan supply lines and any reinforcements who want to jump into the meat grinder in Siddarmark. If Hanth is sufficiently reinforced, he'll stop any more Desnairan incursions south of Somyr.
Montrose Toast wrote:7. Charis Navy closing the Gulf of Dohlar to COG. Some losses to screwboats with spar-torpedoes.
McGuiness wrote:The screwboats are a good idea for the last war - the one in OAR. They won't be effective against Rottweilers or the Haarahld VIIs. Gorath Bay and the NoG are toast, but I do worry about mines. Spar torpedoes could be effective against the ICN's wooden galleons or even ironclads, especially if they're used in a mass attack of skiffs at night. Otherwise they're just an ineffective way for men to commit suicide. Read "1634:The Baltic War."
Montrose Toast wrote:8. In the midst of all these COG failures, Duichair/Magwair attempting a coup against Clyntain - and failing. [I may be wrong but I see Valkyrie here.]
McGuiness wrote:That would be for the best, since it would destroy the church's ability to pay for the war, ruin its logistics, and remove the threat of Duchairn taking over and forcing actual reforms in the CoGA, which would be the death knell for weakening the Proscriptions. Unfortunately Duchairn might succeed.
Montrose Toast wrote:9. Border States may start to rebel due to Inquisition overplaying its hand and Harchong Army pillaging of those areas.
Effectively leaving North Harchong, Temple Lands, and Border States isolated from the rest of Safehold.
With only the Harchong Army in the Border States and Clyntahn in complete control as the G4 is broken.
The rest of Safehold either Allied with Charis or neutralized/isolated.
McGuiness wrote:If the AoG can't get the Harchongese into Siddarmark before their supplies run out, it's lock up your wives and daughters time! The Border States aren't well armed or organized, but even Clyntahn might try to negotiate a cease fire if the good guys retake most of Siddarmark next year. Cayleb and Sharley would spit on such an offer of course.
Montrose Toast wrote:Major fights in many of the isolated countries as the Inquisition overplays its hand in desperation.
McGuiness wrote:I expect even the AoG will be executing inquisitors, or at least shooting them in the back during battles so overmatched troops can surrender to the ICA. They do
not want to surrender to Siddarmakans!
Desnair will have stability problems due to the number of the aristocracy who died with the cavalry. Dohlar will lose its king and its army and navy. But I doubt the good guys will bother to invade the Temple Lands, they'll just sail to Zion and capture the Temple in the book after HFQ.
Montrose Toast wrote:Then there is the question of what may happen in Harchong but I think that is in the book after HFQ.
McGuiness wrote:Turn the Harchongese around and send them home with the half million rifles they'll soon have. You'd get the mother of all slave revolts once they find out they were never intended to return home alive! I think that happens after HFQ though.
Montrose Toast wrote:All of these probabilities are set up in LAMA.
My read is 2 more books to finish the G4 War - then on to the next problem...
McGuiness wrote:RFC said he thought he could finish this arc of the storyline in a couple more books, but his stories tend to bloat on him. Not that I'm complaining that they get longer and more entertaining, but the wait for each novel is excruciating!
Plus whatever it's going to take to convince everyone on Safehold that the CoGA is a complete lie will either be something really dramatic, or will take generations so only Merlin and Nimue will be around to introduce TF tech and take the war to the Gbaba. But we've expected that regardless - you can't go from 1800s tech to space fleets overnight.
