(SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat

SYED wrote:Washington was almost made king of america after the revolution, so Thirsk or someone like him could become the new ruler.
So far more of the nobility will need to be called up, all the spares get called or service. That means far fewer at hom playing the games.

lyonheart wrote:Hi MWadwell,

Not every family has 2 or 3 surviving sons, and with such intermarried noble clans I suspect some officers to have had multiple inheritances, so it won't be pretty regardless.

5000+ dead nobles has to take a bite out of any aristocracy, and given the age range, it's possible 2-3 generations in some cases have been wiped out in this one fell swoop, with ominous results for their clans.

If these were the most vigorous and mentally active of their aristocratic generation, that alone may condemn Desnar to decline, at least for the next generation or two.

I think RFC set this up for Desnar to be warning to Harchong, if Harchong is smart enough to see the writing on the wall.

L

MWadwell wrote:The shock may not be as bad as you think, for a number of reasons:
1) a majority of the "lost" nobles would have been captured - and so their loss is going to be offset by the fact that it is only a temporary loss.
2) The Army is typically a thing that the middle male child goes into (i.e. the eldest male inherits, the second eldest goes into the military, the third oldest joins the church, etc.....) - and so the lines of sucession would still be intact.

lyonheart wrote:Hi N7AXW,

Excellent points.

While it almost seems the only smart Desnarians we've seen so far are now in Tellesberg, Dohlar has quite a few serving a rotten king from the Duke of Fern on down to Zhwaigair.

Much of Dohlar is still a mystery, but it certainly has more potential for change at the moment than either Desnar or Harchong.

From the textev in LaMA, the serf situation in Dohlar is far better than Desnar, though we have no details and upward mobility for merchants and entrepreneurs like Zhwaigair's uncle is possible which is quite important.

Dohlar, aside from King Rahnyld, might indeed survive the current fracas rather well if it manages to avoid being invaded, but I'm not confident that's going to happen.

If the southern IHA sub-army attempts to pursue DE past the river lines, EHM may ruin his supply route rather easily, so that army is on a relatively short supply tether.

How Dohlar manages to feed everybody despite being in the 3 crop tropic zone is an interesting question, given its small size (~1.6 M square miles), so one wonders if adding a half million Harchong might collapse or destroy the system, especially if they're in hot pursuit of DE and EHM (all being armies not much interested in preserving private property rights etc), who are making war in Dohlar specifically to exhaust Dohlar's means of waging war, aided by a blockade by the ICN.

If fishing and trade are precluded, the condition of the people might compel the nobles to find some accommodation that will permit them to keep their positions, but that's if the levelers let them.

There wasn't anything in LaMA regarding the leveler's, but I suspect when the Border States are conquered, collapse into chaos, or surrender to the allies, the local levelers will become active, and depending on who's first to fall Dohlar may be the lead example or the one smart enough to avoid that result.

Would the price of peace only be the the duchy's of Thorast and Reskar (besides Rahnyld's head)?

Despite the relatively little damage done to Siddarmark by Dohlar, I don't think its going to get off that easy.

If the allies make Silkiah a republic, the example won't be lost on the Dohlarans who want the same.

Interesting times people, interesting times indeed.

L

n7axw wrote:Given the unpleasant reality that they couldn't manufacture cannon for Jahras' ships that didn't blow up at inconvienent times, I think you guys are right.

The surprise has been Dohlar. I wouldn't be surprised to see them emerge stronger after the war than they were before once the inhibitions of the inquisition are removed. Maybe not to the extent of post-war Germany, but stronger, nevertheless.

Don

tootall wrote:So, I agree that Desnarians got the really short messy end of the stick. But why do we think that will knock them out of the war? They do have a huge population, they still have the Church, the government is intact, they have not been invaded.
They lost one army.
Surely -since they were so sure of success- there were other forces preparing to follow up the "overwhelmingly victorious" army already committed. Those folow up forces will have a slightly different task, given recent reversals.
I would not be suprised if RFC -ah- The Desnarian government- manages to field a force equally as large as the one just defeated. Perhaps not as well supplied with modern weapons-and perhaps not as well trained. BUT, maybe a better army -if they've learned a lesson or two from their defeat. And the new leadership can't be any worse.

Well, maybe it can't be any worse.

I guess I thinking that we're counting our victories before they're won. (But I've been wrong before.)

PeterZ wrote:There are several of reasons.
1) The ICN controls the Gulf of Jahras. No ships make that passage without ICN leave. The routes on the coast of the Gulf are also subject to ICN mercy.

2) AClone shewdly observed that there are some 50,000 ICA horse and foot soldiers missing from the Siddermarkian OoB. I for one suspect that they are headed to Silkiah and/or the Gulf of Jahras. Those troops can well take the Salthar Canal from the existing Desnairians. Heck, they can probably take the Canal even if Ahlverez heads for Silkiah to avoid Hanth and Eastshare.

3) Once the Allies control the Slathar Canal, River Class ironclads will pretty much close down any shipping from Howard to Dohlar and Silkiah. Desnair has nothing to punch out either the river class boats or what forces the ICA can deploy to cut off any land routes North to Silkiah.

All that suggests desnair is out of the Jihad regardless of how many soldiers they might be able to raise.

tootall wrote:So, I agree that Desnarians got the really short messy end of the stick. But why do we think that will knock them out of the war? They do have a huge population, they still have the Church, the government is intact, they have not been invaded.
They lost one army.
Surely -since they were so sure of success- there were other forces preparing to follow up the "overwhelmingly victorious" army already committed. Those folow up forces will have a slightly different task, given recent reversals.
I would not be suprised if RFC -ah- The Desnarian government- manages to field a force equally as large as the one just defeated. Perhaps not as well supplied with modern weapons-and perhaps not as well trained. BUT, maybe a better army -if they've learned a lesson or two from their defeat. And the new leadership can't be any worse.

Well, maybe it can't be any worse.

I guess I thinking that we're counting our victories before they're won. (But I've been wrong before.)

jgnfld wrote:Small point: The eastern end of the Salthar Canal is already gone as far as the Church is concerned. See Nov 896, Chap 1. The Silktown-Thesmar Canal and some or all of the Somyr River system is open, however.

PeterZ wrote:There are several of reasons.
1) The ICN controls the Gulf of Jahras. No ships make that passage without ICN leave. The routes on the coast of the Gulf are also subject to ICN mercy.

2) AClone shewdly observed that there are some 50,000 ICA horse and foot soldiers missing from the Siddermarkian OoB. I for one suspect that they are headed to Silkiah and/or the Gulf of Jahras. Those troops can well take the Salthar Canal from the existing Desnairians. Heck, they can probably take the Canal even if Ahlverez heads for Silkiah to avoid Hanth and Eastshare.

3) Once the Allies control the Slathar Canal, River Class ironclads will pretty much close down any shipping from Howard to Dohlar and Silkiah. Desnair has nothing to punch out either the river class boats or what forces the ICA can deploy to cut off any land routes North to Silkiah.

All that suggests desnair is out of the Jihad regardless of how many soldiers they might be able to raise.
I guess I thinking that we're counting our victories before they're won. (But I've been wrong before.)

PeterZ wrote:Not quite. There is a 60 mile overland detour the IDA have to take to avoid the ICN stationed off of Silkiah Town Harbor.

jgnfld wrote:Small point: The eastern end of the Salthar Canal is already gone as far as the Church is concerned. See Nov 896, Chap 1. The Silktown-Thesmar Canal and some or all of the Somyr River system is open, however.

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