(spoiler) Next book Mil-Pol Projections

Some people think that LAMA is slow and did not need all the details it had - I don't.

[As you read the following, keep in mind that only the Northern Charis force in Siddarmark has a member of the inner circle to provide prompt intel. The rest can only be provided intel from apparently more conventional means with all the delays that entails.]

I'm looking at the maps and seeing the setup for the next book [HFQ] where:

1. Northern COG encircled and destroyed ala Stalingrad in a winter offensive. Placing the line in the north on the Border States.

2. Central COG broken and either destroyed or retreating into the Border States along the Charyn Canal.

3. With the destruction of the Desnairian Field Army and Hanith advancing to the north combined with their being isolated and loosing their Navy - civil war in Desnair taking them out of the fight.

4. With the escape of the Dohlar Army to Dohlar, the denounciation of Ahlverez by that punk Desnairian aide resulting in the Inquisition going after him, His change in attitude toward Thirsk and an army that is very loyal, combined with Thirsk's Navy being neutralized by KHVs and cutdowns. Coup by Thirsk/Ahlverez taking Dohlar out of the fight and becoming Neutral, allied with Charis, and/or in civil war.

5. Eastshare advancing to the southern Border States after defeating Kaitsworth but failing to block Ahlverez's escape to Dohlar.

6. Hanith failing to block Ahlverez as well and moving into Silkiah to cut off the land route between Howard and Haven.

7. Charis Navy closing the Gulf of Dohlar to COG. Some losses to screwboats with spar-torpedoes.

8. In the midst of all these COG failures, Duichair/Magwair attempting a coup against Clyntain - and failing. [I may be wrong but I see Valkyrie here.]

9. Border States may start to rebel due to Inquisition overplaying its hand and Harchong Army pillaging of those areas.

Effectively leaving North Harchong, Temple Lands, and Border States islolated from the rest of Safehold.

With only the Harchong Army in the Border States and Clyntain in complete control as the G4 is broken.

The rest of Safehold either Allied with Charis or neutralized/isolated.

Major fights in many of the isolated countries as the Inquisition overplays its hand in desperation.

Then there is the question of what may happen in Harchong but I think that is in the book after HFQ.

All of these probablilities are set up in LAMA.

My read is 2 more books to finish the G4 War - then on to the next problem...

Montrose Toast wrote:Some people think that LAMA is slow and did not need all the details it had - I don't.

...snip for brevity...

I wholeheartedly agree with the above!

And wish to thank you for the rest. Seems like a very good summation which I very much agree with. Wish I could sum it up so well.

Thanks again,
T2M

I agree whole heartedly.

thinkstoomuch wrote:

Montrose Toast wrote:Some people think that LAMA is slow and did not need all the details it had - I don't.

...snip for brevity...

I wholeheartedly agree with the above!

And wish to thank you for the rest. Seems like a very good summation which I very much agree with. Wish I could sum it up so well.

Thanks again,
T2M

Montrose Toast wrote:Some people think that LAMA is slow and did not need all the details it had - I don't.

snip

5. Eastshare advancing to the southern Border States after defeating Kaitsworth but failing to block Ahlverez's escape to Dohlar.

6. Hanith failing to block Ahlverez as well and moving into Silkiah to cut off the land route between Howard and Haven.

7. Charis Navy closing the Gulf of Dohlar to COG. Some losses to screwboats with spar-torpedoes.

8. In the midst of all these COG failures, Duichair/Magwair attempting a coup against Clyntain - and failing. [I may be wrong but I see Valkyrie here.]

9. Border States may start to rebel due to Inquisition overplaying its hand and Harchong Army pillaging of those areas.

Effectively leaving North Harchong, Temple Lands, and Border States islolated from the rest of Safehold.

With only the Harchong Army in the Border States and Clyntain in complete control as the G4 is broken.

The rest of Safehold either Allied with Charis or neutralized/isolated.

Major fights in many of the isolated countries as the Inquisition overplays its hand in desperation.

Then there is the question of what may happen in Harchong but I think that is in the book after HFQ.

All of these probablilities are set up in LAMA.

My read is 2 more books to finish the G4 War - then on to the next problem...

Symkyns will be crushing Kaitswyrth early in HFQ. Recall that Green Valley's mounted brigades have that Hallows (morgan horses) breed. I suspect that Symkyn's will also have that breed. Furthermore, Green Valley is expecting Ice Lizards from the Raven Lords. Again, I expect Symkyn's will also receive his fair share.

That suggests to me that Symkyn will crush Kaitswyrth and race up the frozen canals leading to Cat-Lizard Lake. If Symkyn and Green Valley make it up to Tarikah before the Spring thaw, they might save some of those in the concentration camps.

The strategic goal is to block the GHoGatA at Mahrtynberg and St. Verdyn. The quicker the ICA get to those cities the longer they have to build up defenses. By the time the GHoGatA arrives, the Northern ICA armies will have the M96, revolvers for the mounted brigades and metallic cartridges. Good luck pushing them back into Siddermark.

When Gahrvai and the King Haarald's arrive to trash Gorath, Dohlar will be hammered from all sides. Hanth and the Army of Cliff Peak will be moving in from Siddermark. The coast of Dohlar will be turned into a Corisandian and Zhebediahn play ground. King Rahnyld will be offered up as a scape goat for the Gwylym Manthyr and his tortured crew. By the end of Summer 897 South Harchong will be very meek and desperately trying to avoid similar treatment.

I also think that as a prelude to those activities, the ICA will take the Salthar Canal. They will send mounted brigades North from the Gulf of Jahras to take the central locks and attack each end of the canal at Silk Town and Port Salthar. Taking the canal means a score or so of the River Class ironclads wreaking havoc in the Gulf of Dohlar.

Long and short of it means the war ends by the end of HFQ. I don't see how Clyntahn survives. His tame Vicars are dead. The remaining Vicars are looking at the an angry ICA and RSA moving like Leviathan towards their lands. Magwair and Duchairn will use the MHoGatA to offset the Inquisitors. So, with a reasonably fair vote Duchairn will oust Clyntahn and replace him with someone like Bishop Maik. At which point he sues for peace and offers to negotiate. Realizing that effectively he is asking for surrender terms.

Montrose Toast wrote:Some people think that LAMA is slow and did not need all the details it had - I don't.

[As you read the following, keep in mind that only the Northern Charis force in Siddarmark has a member of the inner circle to provide prompt intel. The rest can only be provided intel from apparently more conventional means with all the delays that entails.]

I'm looking at the maps and seeing the setup for the next book [HFQ] where:

1. Northern COG encircled and destroyed ala Stalingrad in a winter offensive. Placing the line in the north on the Border States.

2. Central COG broken and either destroyed or retreating into the Border States along the Charyn Canal.

3. With the destruction of the Desnairian Field Army and Hanith advancing to the north combined with their being isolated and loosing their Navy - civil war in Desnair taking them out of the fight.

4. With the escape of the Dohlar Army to Dohlar, the denounciation of Ahlverez by that punk Desnairian aide resulting in the Inquisition going after him, His change in attitude toward Thirsk and an army that is very loyal, combined with Thirsk's Navy being neutralized by KHVs and cutdowns. Coup by Thirsk/Ahlverez taking Dohlar out of the fight and becoming Neutral, allied with Charis, and/or in civil war.

5. Eastshare advancing to the southern Border States after defeating Kaitsworth but failing to block Ahlverez's escape to Dohlar.

6. Hanith failing to block Ahlverez as well and moving into Silkiah to cut off the land route between Howard and Haven.

7. Charis Navy closing the Gulf of Dohlar to COG. Some losses to screwboats with spar-torpedoes.

8. In the midst of all these COG failures, Duichair/Magwair attempting a coup against Clyntain - and failing. [I may be wrong but I see Valkyrie here.]

9. Border States may start to rebel due to Inquisition overplaying its hand and Harchong Army pillaging of those areas.
[SNIP]

All of these probablilities are set up in LAMA.

My read is 2 more books to finish the G4 War - then on to the next problem...

Mostly agree but I think you are too early on some others.

First, whole-heartedly agree (like the above other posters) that LaMA is not text-excessive. On the other hand, I'm not going to pick it up for light re-reading for a bit either!

Second, as I was gently corrected on misspelling Nimue's name (blush) in an earlier thread, I must correct you that it is 'Hanth', not Hanith (#s 3 & 6) and given that the first reference to this Earldom was all the way back in the ORIGINAL OAR (I love alliterations), 6 lashes with a boiled noodle!

I think that your #4 having Dohlar out of the CoGA entirely in "Hell's Foundations Quiver" (HFQ) is overly ambitious. I can see it, but I think that it will be slower with the coup coming at the end of HFQ and the results in the following book.

I think that #8 (Duichair/Magwair coup against Clyntahn) is entirely premature and worse, wastes all of RFC's subtle hidden and overt interplay within the Go4. My personal "Visualization of the Cosmic All" (aka RFC's twisted mind) has the re-appearance of the missing member of the Go4, Vicar Zahmsyn Trynair, the Chancellor of CoGA. I base this, at least in part, on the OAR references to an apparent homophone of the Safeholdian puppet theater puppet-master of "Master Tarynyr".

My personal opinion is that RFC has too much respect and investment in such an important character to shuffle him off into nowhere for the past 2 books. As the acknowledged 'Kingmaker' of the Grand Vicar, Trynair is too able a political player to just disappear even though his normal job of diplomacy has diminished in the course of the Jihad! After all, at the start of the series, he and Clyntahn were the strong men of the Go4 with Duichair & Magwair the lesser lights.

So I think that he will re-appear in a surprising manner in HFQ and throw both the Inquisitors and Duichair/Magwair back to re-think their plans. After all, it has apparently been agreed that this is, at best, the penultimate book in the CoGA war and Vicar Clyntahn's fall will do more than make those foundations quiver! So I think that the end of Clyntahn, however it comes, will be in the end book of this arc!

"St. Verdyn" - Sounds like Verdun to me - is that a MWW hint of an ugly fight?


If 8 fails and I think it will - that leaves Clyntain still in charge. Remember that Valkrie failed almost a year before VE day. These troops do not move as fast as WWII troops. Each book is about a year - that means 2 more books. Keep in mind the KHs are how far away and not yet launched...
I see 2 years left on this arch - HFQ and 1 more book, then the skip.


"Master Tarynyr" - Not sure about this. Could be a hint or diversion by the MWW. His position is not preeminint in wartime - unless there is an armistice short of taking the Temple Lands. Or it could be he ends up in charge after the coup attempt with the other 3 mutually destroying each other...

Montrose Toast wrote:"St. Verdyn" - Sounds like Verdun to me - is that a MWW hint of an ugly fight?

SNIP

That's good, nicely spotted

However, is Verdyn particularly important to anyone, apart from being a transport hub?

IRC Verdun had an almost 'sacred' importance to the French, which ment that they had to hold it at all costs.

BTW, saw a good quote in wikipedia from the end stages of Verdun that Eastshare could re-use...

Some German officers complained to Mangin about their lack of comfort in captivity who replied, We do regret it, gentlemen, but then we did not expect so many of you

PeterZ wrote:
When Gahrvai and the King Haarald's arrive to trash Gorath, Dohlar will be hammered from all sides. Hanth and the Army of Cliff Peak will be moving in from Siddermark. The coast of Dohlar will be turned into a Corisandian and Zhebediahn play ground. King Rahnyld will be offered up as a scape goat for the Gwylym Manthyr and his tortured crew. By the end of Summer 897 South Harchong will be very meek and desperately trying to avoid similar treatment.

I also think that as a prelude to those activities, the ICA will take the Salthar Canal. They will send mounted brigades North from the Gulf of Jahras to take the central locks and attack each end of the canal at Silk Town and Port Salthar. Taking the canal means a score or so of the River Class ironclads wreaking havoc in the Gulf of Dohlar.

Long and short of it means the war ends by the end of HFQ. I don't see how Clyntahn survives. His tame Vicars are dead. The remaining Vicars are looking at the an angry ICA and RSA moving like Leviathan towards their lands. Magwair and Duchairn will use the MHoGatA to offset the Inquisitors. So, with a reasonably fair vote Duchairn will oust Clyntahn and replace him with someone like Bishop Maik. At which point he sues for peace and offers to negotiate. Realizing that effectively he is asking for surrender terms.

With Charisian galleons rampaging around the Gulf of Dohlar the Church will insist Thirsk go out and stop them. Dohlar's fleet has shell-firing guns, so an engagement between galleon fleets will be messy. Because of the Rottweilers, Charis will win but won't be strong enough to resume the offensive until the KH VIIs join up. Thirsk's remaining fleet falls back, and thanks to the crank galleys (with or without steam engines) is able to hold Gorath Bay. It could make for a stalemate or a decisive final action.

Taking Salthar simplifies logistics for the KH VIIs: it gives them coaling stations at each end of the Gulf. OTOH, probably the only militarily useful thing the Desnarian Empire may be capable of is guarding the canal. If they pull back everything they can find in the North to the canal (which is probably happening by itself already) they might be able to delay a force long enough to blow the locks.

I don't think that the war will be over by the end of the next book. To carry a comparison too far - If LAMA is the equivalent of 1943 then HFQ goes through 1944. By the end of the book I see the AoG expelled from Siddarmark, Dohlar effectively out of the war, and ICA in the Border states, fully engaged with the EoH forces. The next book after that will deal with the end of the war and the aftermath. My take, anyway.

jms

Say the harchong army runs wild in the border lands, those people might welcome the republic coming in to restore peace, law and order.

1) Thrisk becomes more powerful with the destruction of the dohlaran land army. Causing major headaches for his enemies. The return of the ICN to the area will only help him.

2) when would starts to leak out about the holy langhorne explosion and aftermath. backlash against the inquistion will start in many quarters and become much more public as a result