The SLN commerce raiding strategy WILL work.

kzt wrote:Iirc, I've got about 20 lm range on sensors in hyper. So your merchants now need to get 20 light hours away from the system to before jumping into hyper. I suspect that will have seriously detrimental effects on your commerce, and also make attacking them in normal space a lot easier.

It is 20 light minutes to determine that there is anything out there at all. It is substantially lower than that in order to make positive identification. For all you know, you could be trying to intercept a superdreadnought.

saber964 wrote:That's easy the Andies, they're technically neutral to the GA and SL. Or maybe the Erehwoniese since they are also neutral.

They most definitely are not neutral, whatever the public positions may appear to be. Cauldron of Ghosts made that clear about Erewhon. And until they're ready, neither Erewhon nor Maya wants core attention drawn to them.

I doubt the Sollies would overlook the fact the Andies were allied to Manticore in a shooting war and both worked to take Silesia over. IIRC, the Empire is still an "associated power" as well, which puts it in the position of the USA during the first years of WW1. And we know what happened when commerce raiding started.

n7axw wrote:I agree commerce raiding is SLN's best option, but that doesn't make it a good one. IIRC, Kingsford's idea is to use Battlefleet's and Frontier Fleet's thousands of BCs for the job, carrying Catapharats under wedge.

Two issues I see here. First I wonder if a lot of those BC's won't be kept closer to home in defensive role. Secondly, GA can put better equiped light units in any system it chooses to defend. SLN can lose a lot of BCs in a hurry against Rolands, for example or even Ferret class lacs.

Don

Concur (and also with Crown Loyalist, who makes some excellent points of his own).

What happens when you pull the majority of Frontier Fleet out to go raiding...just as the Verge and the Protectorates start going up in flames (be it MAlign-ment inspired or just people reading the winds right, or just being pissed-off enough to do something--The Allenby clan in Shadow of Freedom)?

And as I mentioned in the BB-thread, Mike Henke in Shadow of Freedom has in effect announced that the SEM/GA has stopped RE-acting to the SL, but are now being PRO-Active-(nothing says we're coming for you like taking over an entire SL/OFS sector). So suddnely A LOT of SL systems are going to be yelling for ships and support...

Some ships will be deployed, and some conflicts will take place, but in the end, the ISLN will find that they are like a boxer taking on a much swifter opponent--they cannot block or parry the blows; indeed, they can't even predict where or when the next one is coming at them.

We shall see...eventually.

kzt wrote:Iirc, I've got about 20 lm range on sensors in hyper. So your merchants now need to get 20 light hours away from the system to before jumping into hyper. I suspect that will have seriously detrimental effects on your commerce, and also make attacking them in normal space a lot easier.

Storm from the Shadows gave a Roland-class DD less than a 3.89 lm detection range against a (simulated) SLN BC, CAs, and DDs accelerating hard (admittely also using their stealth systems; but those are of very limited usefulness at 400+ g). The Roland didn't see them with onboard sensors at all; they got picked up by the beta flight of deployed ghost rider drones. (Don't know if those are an outer drone shell, or just a sector of a single shell around the ship)

And in HoE Artimis didn't have perfect view of Hawkwing at 3.75 lightseconds.

So I think the in-hyper detection ranges are quite a bit lower than 20 lm.

Jonathan_S wrote:

kzt wrote:Iirc, I've got about 20 lm range on sensors in hyper. So your merchants now need to get 20 light hours away from the system to before jumping into hyper. I suspect that will have seriously detrimental effects on your commerce, and also make attacking them in normal space a lot easier.

Storm from the Shadows gave a Roland-class DD less than a 3.89 lm detection range against a (simulated) SLN BC, CAs, and DDs accelerating hard (admittely also using their stealth systems; but those are of very limited usefulness at 400+ g). The Roland didn't see them with onboard sensors at all; they got picked up by the beta flight of deployed ghost rider drones. (Don't know if those are an outer drone shell, or just a sector of a single shell around the ship)

And in HoE Artimis didn't have perfect view of Hawkwing at 3.75 lightseconds.

So I think the in-hyper detection ranges are quite a bit lower than 20 lm.

That is logical. The 20 light-minute range mentioned in the text is for detection of a grav wave, plus the mention that it is impossible to detect anything at all beyond that range. Lacking any other definitive textev, we have used 20 lm as a maximum range in previous discussions, but we don't actually know the effective range against enemy ships.

cthia wrote:

However, in the wars between Haven and Manticore, commerce raiding invited the enemy to respond in kind. It seems the SLN would not want this, especially considering that Manticore can virtually operate with impunity.

But SLN commerce has already been effectively decimated without a single hull being lost by the combination of Manticoran Alliance hulls withdrawing from the normal carrying trade AND the closure of the wormhole networks. Solarian intersteller lift capacity has already been reduced by 75% or more by these two actions. What hulls it has left under its own control are taking four or five times the average voyage length.

So right now (end of Cauldron of Ghosts), Solarian commercial lift capacity is probably near what the Japanese had in the spring of 1945. There is not too much more that they can lose as the RMN/GSN/RHN go commerce raiding for the remaining hyper capable lift. Most of the remaining lift value is intra-system value.

The Grand Alliance has too much lift capacity (due to withdrawal of the Manticoran Merchant Marine) and not enough cargos.

Hutch wrote:
Concur (and also with Crown Loyalist, who makes some excellent points of his own).

What happens when you pull the majority of Frontier Fleet out to go raiding...just as the Verge and the Protectorates start going up in flames (be it MAlign-ment inspired or just people reading the winds right, or just being pissed-off enough to do something--The Allenby clan in Shadow of Freedom)?


Don

The only solution that pops to mind is likely too radical/crazy for the SLN. Solarian SDPs helplessness against the GA seems to be seeping into the SLN leadership. Use SDPs to hold the systems, freeing up the light hulls that might buy the League time to develop and introduce something that could fight the GA. I doubt it would work for long enough, if at all. But it would be the maximum utility of current resources. Not any part of likely because of everything we have ever heard about Battle Fleet. On the other hand, the Mandarins are likely to be more worried about maintaining control over systems than anything else. As was stated, best options among bad.

pldew wrote:

Hutch wrote:
Concur (and also with Crown Loyalist, who makes some excellent points of his own).

What happens when you pull the majority of Frontier Fleet out to go raiding...just as the Verge and the Protectorates start going up in flames (be it MAlign-ment inspired or just people reading the winds right, or just being pissed-off enough to do something--The Allenby clan in Shadow of Freedom)?


Don

The only solution that pops to mind is likely too radical/crazy for the SLN. Solarian SDPs helplessness against the GA seems to be seeping into the SLN leadership. Use SDPs to hold the systems, freeing up the light hulls that might buy the League time to develop and introduce something that could fight the GA. I doubt it would work for long enough, if at all. But it would be the maximum utility of current resources. Not any part of likely because of everything we have ever heard about Battle Fleet. On the other hand, the Mandarins are likely to be more worried about maintaining control over systems than anything else. As was stated, best options among bad.

It would be interesting to see the response, both from the GA and the MA, to the SLN breaking Battle Fleet up into pairs and stationing those divisions in as many systems as possible, with the remainder gathered up in nodal forces positioned to cover the larger SDFs.

From the PoV of the MAN, having the RMN need to assign most of their smaller hypercapable ships to commerce protection roles is great. Because if they are running around Talbott etc they are not available for bug hunts around Manticore.

munroburton wrote:

pldew wrote:
The only solution that pops to mind is likely too radical/crazy for the SLN. Solarian SDPs helplessness against the GA seems to be seeping into the SLN leadership. Use SDPs to hold the systems, freeing up the light hulls that might buy the League time to develop and introduce something that could fight the GA. I doubt it would work for long enough, if at all. But it would be the maximum utility of current resources. Not any part of likely because of everything we have ever heard about Battle Fleet. On the other hand, the Mandarins are likely to be more worried about maintaining control over systems than anything else. As was stated, best options among bad.

It would be interesting to see the response, both from the GA and the MA, to the SLN breaking Battle Fleet up into pairs and stationing those divisions in as many systems as possible, with the remainder gathered up in nodal forces positioned to cover the larger SDFs.

The backfill strategy has been mentioned a few times in the past. But the worst part is the wallers are all in the Core - it will take 1-2 months to get them out to the protectorates - IF they are ready to move. Most likely it will take an additional month to get them all moving.

Also, all the fleet bases in the shell, protectorates and verge are FF bases - that means there are most likely few or no parts and ammo in the outer reaches for SDs, let alone facilities to maintain them. Remember, there have been only 5 instances of wallers deployed from the core in the last 225 years (and 2 of them just happened in the last year). So why would the Frontier Fleet, with no wallers, pay to have bases to maintain wallers or have their parts in it's supply system? If there is ammo and parts in the Protectorates it's probably old and out of date (contact warheads and autocannon parts)

So, from the moment that the leadership notices that it needs to backfill the FF, it could be 3 months before the ships are in place to free up FF hulls. And once they are there, there may be little or no way to maintain them or rearm them.