(SPOILERS) Possible surprises that RFC might spring

Here are mine:

Revolution in Temple Lands fermented by Aivah's organization which as Rayno put it "has a very long reach."

Aivah turns out to be a double agent in Clyntahn's employ.

Nimue turns coat, becoming an adversary rather than ally.

The last two here sound EXTREMELY unlikely... but that is their surprise potential!

What are yours?

Let's give this a try.

Hektor joins Niimue and Merlin on some field ops. He has an heir already and so has more leeway to risk his neck on ops. My guess is that he and the seijins lead the overland portion of the Salthar canal raid. They need Inner Circle members to direct the mounted brigades away from prying eyes. Perhaps rumors could be spread that Hektor has been granted some ....abilities...after his miraculous recovery. Call him seijin in training. He was gifted by God for his willingness to sacrifice his life for one of God's obvious favorites.

Btw, just played with a Japanese translation for Seijin. Definition comes back as adult. 成人 are the characters google returned.

Corisandian troops will conquor Chisholm after all these years. The revolt by the Chisholmian aristocracy will be beaten back by Zebediahn and Corisandian troops.

Cayleb goes to the Dohlaran border and takes a more active role in the conflict.

That's it so far. I am sure more will occur to me.

I have thought that it'd be ironic if Corisandian troops assisted Sharleyan when she'd puts down her disloyal nobility. So that might happen.

I really doubt that Cayleb will be on the frontlines anywhere. There are plenty of people, including Merlin, who would be willing to sit on him until he regains his sanity. There are plenty of people, beside Cayleb, who could lead troops into battle. It's not like the situation a few books back where he was actually needed to command a fleet.

As for Hektor becoming a seijin, he's going to be busy enough helping Irys in bringing Corisande fully into the Empire and raising Daivyn to be the Prince Corisande needs. Now what might happen is that Hektor and Irys may take a "vacation" to repair Hektor's hand. We already know that his hand needs work that only a trip to Nimue's Cave can provide. The problem earlier was hiding Hektor's absence. Now that he's out of danger, it's possible that they can afford the time for the repair job.

Minor note concerning the subject line, if we can foresee what RFC will do, then it's not a surprise.

PeterZ wrote:Let's give this a try.

Hektor joins Niimue and Merlin on some field ops. He has an heir already and so has more leeway to risk his neck on ops. My guess is that he and the seijins lead the overland portion of the Salthar canal raid. They need Inner Circle members to direct the mounted brigades away from prying eyes. Perhaps rumors could be spread that Hektor has been granted some ....abilities...after his miraculous recovery. Call him seijin in training. He was gifted by God for his willingness to sacrifice his life for one of God's obvious favorites.

Btw, just played with a Japanese translation for Seijin. Definition comes back as adult. 成人 are the characters google returned.

Corisandian troops will conquor Chisholm after all these years. The revolt by the Chisholmian aristocracy will be beaten back by Zebediahn and Corisandian troops.

Cayleb goes to the Dohlaran border and takes a more active role in the conflict.

That's it so far. I am sure more will occur to me.

n7axw wrote:Here are mine:

Revolution in Temple Lands fermented by Aivah's organization which as Rayno put it "has a very long reach."

Aivah turns out to be a double agent in Clyntahn's employ.

Nimue turns coat, becoming an adversary rather than ally.

The last two here sound EXTREMELY unlikely... but that is their surprise potential!

What are yours?

I don't like your #2 & #3, but #1 sounds great! Personally, given Aivah's relationship to Clyntahn & her long standing hatred of him, I find it impossible to even consider the possibility she'd be a double agent. She stands against everything he is & does.
#3 theoretically could be more plausible, but again, everything Nimue believes in as a person who is truly good at heart would rebel & be sick/revolted to ever have anything to do with him. I can't see her 'turning' evil just to further the cause of developing technology.
I think a much more likely possibility would be Thirsk changing sides. Or maybe even Ducairn - though at this point that doesn't seem all that likely but much more plausible than either Aivah or Nimue. In my opinion, at any rate, for what it's worth.
Hektor getting maimed & almost dying was enough surprise for me in the last book! That, I wasn't expecting.

Origart wrote:

n7axw wrote:Here are mine:

Revolution in Temple Lands fermented by Aivah's organization which as Rayno put it "has a very long reach."

Aivah turns out to be a double agent in Clyntahn's employ.

Nimue turns coat, becoming an adversary rather than ally.

The last two here sound EXTREMELY unlikely... but that is their surprise potential!

What are yours?

I don't like your #2 & #3, but #1 sounds great! Personally, given Aivah's relationship to Clyntahn & her long standing hatred of him, I find it impossible to even consider the possibility she'd be a double agent. She stands against everything he is & does.
#3 theoretically could be more plausible, but again, everything Nimue believes in as a person who is truly good at heart would rebel & be sick/revolted to ever have anything to do with him. I can't see her 'turning' evil just to further the cause of developing technology.
I think a much more likely possibility would be Thirsk changing sides. Or maybe even Ducairn - though at this point that doesn't seem all that likely but much more plausible than either Aivah or Nimue. In my opinion, at any rate, for what it's worth.
Hektor getting maimed & almost dying was enough surprise for me in the last book! That, I wasn't expecting.

Welcome aboard, Oligart. Glad you pulled up a stool and are participating in the conversation.

Origart wrote:

n7axw wrote:Here are mine:

Revolution in Temple Lands fermented by Aivah's organization which as Rayno put it "has a very long reach."

Aivah turns out to be a double agent in Clyntahn's employ.

Nimue turns coat, becoming an adversary rather than ally.

The last two here sound EXTREMELY unlikely... but that is their surprise potential!

What are yours?

I don't like your #2 & #3, but #1 sounds great! Personally, given Aivah's relationship to Clyntahn & her long standing hatred of him, I find it impossible to even consider the possibility she'd be a double agent. She stands against everything he is & does.
#3 theoretically could be more plausible, but again, everything Nimue believes in as a person who is truly good at heart would rebel & be sick/revolted to ever have anything to do with him. I can't see her 'turning' evil just to further the cause of developing technology.
I think a much more likely possibility would be Thirsk changing sides. Or maybe even Ducairn - though at this point that doesn't seem all that likely but much more plausible than either Aivah or Nimue. In my opinion, at any rate, for what it's worth.
Hektor getting maimed & almost dying was enough surprise for me in the last book! That, I wasn't expecting.

Aivah has her own agenda, and that worries me a great deal. Plus she's stumbled onto the dual identities Merlin is using, and put two and two together to realize he can travel thousands of miles in a day. She doesn't know if he can take a passenger along, unless she has some info on TF tech from somewhere, so she's bluffing about that. The conversation she and Merlin are about to have is going to be very interesting...

Duchairn is plotting a coup, the question is will the temple guard support him against the Inquisition. Should they manage to kill both Clyntahn and Rayno, the Go3 may have a chance. It's the worst thing that could happen to the technological progress for Safehold though.

Gorath is going down, the question is "at what cost?" Based on "1634:The Baltic War" we may see spar torpedoes, and although the Dohlarans have some rifled cannon, we have no textev that the navy got any of it, just that they got some of the shells. That makes Thirsk's galleons and screw galleys dangerous to Charis' wooden warships, although the Rottweilers could take out his entire fleet. Expect something like mines, spar torpedoes, and Charis may introduce depth charges as a way to clear nautical mine fields.

Thirsk is plotting something to get his daughters free of the Inquisition, but as soon as they move he's dead. Theoretically he should have it done while he's at sea - and if he knew help was available, scrawl on a piece of paper in his cabin "I want to defect," or if his conscience won't let him do that, "I want to surrender my fleet before you destroy it" would save a lot of lives, the vast majority Dohlaran. He doesn't know he could do that - but if he just said it, he'd get a visit in the night from a seijin.

I expect King Ronald to be run to ground and hung, perhaps with the aid of Merlin, and Nimue in a stretch, although she's needed where she is. Corisande regiments might indeed show up in Chisholm to put down a rebellion. They're raving EoC patriots these days after Clyntahn tried to murder their beloved princess' dashing husband, who's saved her life twice now.

Ahlverez may not make it through the ICA lines, and the few Desnairans who remain will starve, although the Delthak will probably sail into Lake Somyr and knock out the piers at the end of the Silk Town - Thesmar canal, and the bridge that crosses the Somyr river, which will pretty much put the Desnairan supply line out of business.

The ICN will seize Dairnyth and the Bay of Bess, and at the very least will blockade Port Salthar, which would end the transfer of supplies from the Gulf of Dohlar into the South March Lands by any means than through Dohlar. Since all of Dohlar's ports are about to be shelled into gravel and soot, they're on their own as far as keeping their own troops and Kaitswyrth supplied, except I fully expect the ICA to seize the junction of the Dairnyth - Alykberg canal and the Fairmyn river, which will starve Kaitswyrth until the northern locks are replaced.

BGV is about to rout the AoSG, which will be forced to retreat in the dead of winter from Guarnak. That won't be pretty, and lots of them are going to die.

The wildcard is the huge number of Harchongese who are being trained with rifles, and how quickly the AoG can get their new breech loading rifles into production. The troop numbers actually favor the ICA and Siddarmark within Siddarmark at the moment, but a million and a half Harchongese are going to take a long time to kill, especially if they're shooting back! Without them, the good guys could probably wrap up the war in Siddarmark by next fall.

After that they need to decide when to send a fleet to infiltrate, capture, and hold the temple while they try to figure out what's in the basement. The whole series turns on what they find, so that will be interesting...

Hi McGuiness,

I don't agree that the possibility of Duchairn's success is the worse thing that could happen to technological progress on Safehold, since everyone knows that Charis survived because it innovated, and those innovations been and regardless of whether the inquisition survives or not, the rest of Safehold's nations know they must innovate to survive, let alone compete with Charis in the future.

If the Go3 survives, I don't think any of them are foolish enough to believe they can put the genie back in the bottle.

Until there are ICN warships that can maneuver independently of the wind (ie steam powered) in the Gulf of Dohlar, Thirsk's fleet has a far better shot against Sharpfield's than some seem to assume since the wind can easily vary across the sea (and Thirsk has his own warships that can maneuver independently of the sea -the screw galleys) rendering some motionless and others quite fast, there are too many factors for anyone to be blase about Thirsk automatically losing to Sharpfield.

Thirsk has around 80 war galleons, or about double what Sharpfield has, NTM more 'armored' or 'semi-armored' ships given his screw galleys, but I find it extremely unlikely that his fleet will line up conveniently for the
2 Rottweilers to sink 4 abreast.

I think the two bombardment ships will be helpful at 'long range' (3-4000 yards, or half or a third their maximum range) to get some hits on squadron sized targets, because Rock Point would have pushed to make the most of such expensive ships, by experimentation and practice under various sea conditions.

On earth, by the time such long ranged guns were in service, steam and iron had already begun to replace sail yet being a generally peaceful era, there was no need or effort to extend effective combat ranges at sea which might have been possible.

I suspect this is one of the areas RFC might explore in HFQ.

Given that Thirsk has apparently discussed this with Casper, Merlin and the inner circle, especially Nahrmahn know what Thirsk intends and hopes, so after he leaves port Merlin and or Nimue (given Manchyr is half way around the world) might use OWL's spies or stunners if Casper's plan fails to get them out, leaving everyone wondering why the supposed Shan-wei's servants spared them if they even saw them.

Or suppose OWL's spies decided to dispose of all the inquisitors in the palace that night (as a warning to the rest of the inquisitors), or the night BEFORE Casper's plan is attempted, which succeeds because of all the ensuing chaos?

I'm not sure King Rahnyld is sober enough to run to any ground, but he might attempt to lead his people or army in its desperate defense of Gorath City, with the usual results.

While the body can be identified, which of his sons is worth installing as king?

Getting all the incompetent ones killed off or committed to get to the one or two worth keeping will be even more interesting to me, how about any of you too?

Regarding Corisandan troops put down a noble uprising in Chisholm, yes I like the irony, but Duke Solomon is closer, and so is Chermyn, so by the time Gahrvai arrives it might be all over , though I look forward to the reaction of dragon Hill or Rock Coast to having one or two pirate schooners dump weapons for their "rebellion", when they're not even close to committing themselves yet.

Might the schooners really be disguised ICN with captured weapons?

How's that for a surprise?

What other possibilities come to your mind?

I expect Ahlverez to make it, since it's unusual for RFC or any author to so develop a character then discard him so casually.

While Hanth's command may support a drive south down the canal, since the AoS is kaput doing it just to wreck the supply line is like locking the barn door after the horses ran away, but there are other reasons to secure it.

Dairnyth isn't worth much if the Bay of Bess is blockaded, and I'm not confident the ICN in the Gulf of Dohlar can spare the marines to besiege the city.

I've already suggested elsewhere that cutting the Fairmyn river supply route is a job for Earl High Mount's scout snipers, not a whole army; and that Kaitswyrth may not be breathing by the time they get there but it will still be worth doing.

Wyrshym may wind up around Five Forks as someone suggested some month's ago, but who thinks a starving campaign in winter would be pretty at anytime?

After Merlin's multi-page riff on the advantages of a smaller distributed organization, I don't see the the IHA remaining in one piece; its simply too vulnerable to anything interfering with its canal life line, including accidents, when their daily food requirement is 2250-3000 tons per day.

Hopefully they figure out that smaller is better, especially when it comes to army logistics, as demonstrated by the IDA's pitiful example.

Looking forward to more such thoughtful posts.

L


[quote="McGuiness"][quote="Origart"][quote="n7axw"]Here are mine:

Revolution in Temple Lands fermented by Aivah's organization which as Rayno put it "has a very long reach."

Aivah turns out to be a double agent in Clyntahn's employ.

Nimue turns coat, becoming an adversary rather than ally.

The last two here sound EXTREMELY unlikely... but that is their surprise potential!

What are yours?[/quote]

I don't like your #2 & #3, but #1 sounds great! Personally, given Aivah's relationship to Clyntahn & her long standing hatred of him, I find it impossible to even consider the possibility she'd be a double agent. She stands against everything he is & does.
#3 theoretically could be more plausible, but again, everything Nimue believes in as a person who is truly good at heart would rebel & be sick/revolted to ever have anything to do with him. I can't see her 'turning' evil just to further the cause of developing technology.
I think a much more likely possibility would be Thirsk changing sides. Or maybe even Ducairn - though at this point that doesn't seem all that likely but much more plausible than either Aivah or Nimue. In my opinion, at any rate, for what it's worth.
Hektor getting maimed & almost dying was enough surprise for me in the last book! That, I wasn't expecting.[/quote]Aivah has her own agenda, and that worries me a great deal. Plus she's stumbled onto the dual identities Merlin is using, and put two and two together to realize he can travel thousands of miles in a day. She doesn't know if he can take a passenger along, unless she has some info on TF tech from somewhere, so she's bluffing about that. The conversation she and Merlin are about to have is going to be [i]very [/i]interesting...

Duchairn is plotting a coup, the question is will the temple guard support him against the Inquisition. Should they manage to kill both Clyntahn and Rayno, the Go3 may have a chance. It's the worst thing that could happen to the technological progress for Safehold though.

Gorath is going down, the question is "at what cost?" Based on "1634:The Baltic War" we may see spar torpedoes, and although the Dohlarans have some rifled cannon, we have no textev that the navy got any of it, just that they got some of the shells. That makes Thirsk's galleons and screw galleys dangerous to Charis' wooden warships, although the Rottweilers could take out his entire fleet. Expect something like mines, spar torpedoes, and Charis may introduce depth charges as a way to clear nautical mine fields.

Thirsk is plotting something to get his daughters free of the Inquisition, but as soon as they move he's dead. Theoretically he should have it done while he's at sea - and if he knew help was available, scrawl on a piece of paper in his cabin "I want to defect," or if his conscience won't let him do that, "I want to surrender my fleet before you destroy it" would save a lot of lives, the vast majority Dohlaran. He doesn't know he could do that - but if he just [i]said [/i]it, he'd get a visit in the night from a seijin.

I expect King Ronald to be run to ground and hung, perhaps with the aid of Merlin, and Nimue in a stretch, although she's needed where she is. Corisande regiments might indeed show up in Chisholm to put down a rebellion. They're raving EoC patriots these days after Clyntahn tried to murder their beloved princess' dashing husband, who's saved her life twice now.

Ahlverez may not make it through the ICA lines, and the few Desnairans who remain will starve, although the [i]Delthak [/i]will probably sail into Lake Somyr and knock out the piers at the end of the Silk Town - Thesmar canal, and the bridge that crosses the Somyr river, which will pretty much put the Desnairan supply line out of business.

The ICN will seize Dairnyth and the Bay of Bess, and at the very least will blockade Port Salthar, which would end the transfer of supplies from the Gulf of Dohlar into the South March Lands by any means than through Dohlar. Since all of Dohlar's ports are about to be shelled into gravel and soot, they're on their own as far as keeping their own troops and Kaitswyrth supplied, except I fully expect the ICA to seize the junction of the Dairnyth - Alykberg canal and the Fairmyn river, which will starve Kaitswyrth until the northern locks are replaced.

BGV is about to rout the AoSG, which will be forced to retreat in the dead of winter from Guarnak. That won't be pretty, and lots of them are going to die.

The wildcard is the huge number of Harchongese who are being trained with rifles, and how quickly the AoG can get their new breech loading rifles into production. The troop numbers actually favor the ICA and Siddarmark within Siddarmark at the moment, but a million and a half Harchongese are going to take a long time to kill, especially if they're shooting back! Without them, the good guys could probably wrap up the war in Siddarmark by next fall.

After that they need to decide when to send a fleet to infiltrate, capture, and hold the temple while they try to figure out what's in the basement. The whole series turns on what they find, so that will be interesting... [/quote]

I couldn't agree more. But that is what would ,make it the ultimate cover, the complete surprise.

Don

Origart wrote:

n7axw wrote:Here are mine:

Revolution in Temple Lands fermented by Aivah's organization which as Rayno put it "has a very long reach."

Aivah turns out to be a double agent in Clyntahn's employ.

Nimue turns coat, becoming an adversary rather than ally.

The last two here sound EXTREMELY unlikely... but that is their surprise potential!

What are yours?

I don't like your #2 & #3, but #1 sounds great! Personally, given Aivah's relationship to Clyntahn & her long standing hatred of him, I find it impossible to even consider the possibility she'd be a double agent. She stands against everything he is & does.
#3 theoretically could be more plausible, but again, everything Nimue believes in as a person who is truly good at heart would rebel & be sick/revolted to ever have anything to do with him. I can't see her 'turning' evil just to further the cause of developing technology.
I think a much more likely possibility would be Thirsk changing sides. Or maybe even Ducairn - though at this point that doesn't seem all that likely but much more plausible than either Aivah or Nimue. In my opinion, at any rate, for what it's worth.
Hektor getting maimed & almost dying was enough surprise for me in the last book! That, I wasn't expecting.

Arrival of a PICA named Nimue causes other groups founded by adam's and eve's retrained by Shen-wei to surface.

Frankjg wrote:Arrival of a PICA named Nimue causes other groups founded by adam's and eve's retrained by Shen-wei to surface.

That would be a nice surprise, wouldn't it? Imagine the possibilities... Forbidden knowledge, hidden tech the knowledge of how it works reduced to formulas and magic... Think Father Paityr's Stone of Schuler on a grander scale, but even more deeply hidden than Jeremiah Knowles journal... yet passed on thruogh the generations in hope of a new day... How can our mad wizzard blind side us? What can he come up with that would not occur to us in the normal course of our speculating?

Don