(SPOILER) Political Consequences of the Military Defeat

lyonheart wrote:The effect of losing 5000+ aristocratic officers will be quite a shock to the nobility and the society in general, which may force some major changes, just as the various plagues NTM wars did to Europe, so RFC's actual results will be fascinating.

The shock may not be as bad as you think, for a number of reasons:
1) a majority of the "lost" nobles would have been captured - and so their loss is going to be offset by the fact that it is only a temporary loss.
2) The Army is typically a thing that the middle male child goes into (i.e. the eldest male inherits, the second eldest goes into the military, the third oldest joins the church, etc.....) - and so the lines of sucession would still be intact.

Hi N7AXW,

Excellent points.

While it almost seems the only smart Desnarians we've seen so far are now in Tellesberg, Dohlar has quite a few serving a rotten king from the Duke of Fern on down to Zhwaigair.

Much of Dohlar is still a mystery, but it certainly has more potential for change at the moment than either Desnar or Harchong.

From the textev in LaMA, the serf situation in Dohlar is far better than Desnar, though we have no details and upward mobility for merchants and entrepreneurs like Zhwaigair's uncle is possible which is quite important.

Dohlar, aside from King Rahnyld, might indeed survive the current fracas rather well if it manages to avoid being invaded, but I'm not confident that's going to happen.

If the southern IHA sub-army attempts to pursue DE past the river lines, EHM may ruin his supply route rather easily, so that army is on a relatively short supply tether.

How Dohlar manages to feed everybody despite being in the 3 crop tropic zone is an interesting question, given its small size (~1.6 M square miles), so one wonders if adding a half million Harchong might collapse or destroy the system, especially if they're in hot pursuit of DE and EHM (all being armies not much interested in preserving private property rights etc), who are making war in Dohlar specifically to exhaust Dohlar's means of waging war, aided by a blockade by the ICN.

If fishing and trade are precluded, the condition of the people might compel the nobles to find some accommodation that will permit them to keep their positions, but that's if the levelers let them.

There wasn't anything in LaMA regarding the leveler's, but I suspect when the Border States are conquered, collapse into chaos, or surrender to the allies, the local levelers will become active, and depending on who's first to fall Dohlar may be the lead example or the one smart enough to avoid that result.

Would the price of peace only be the the duchy's of Thorast and Reskar (besides Rahnyld's head)?

Despite the relatively little damage done to Siddarmark by Dohlar, I don't think its going to get off that easy.

If the allies make Silkiah a republic, the example won't be lost on the Dohlarans who want the same.

Interesting times people, interesting times indeed.

L

n7axw wrote:Given the unpleasant reality that they couldn't manufacture cannon for Jahras' ships that didn't blow up at inconvienent times, I think you guys are right.

The surprise has been Dohlar. I wouldn't be surprised to see them emerge stronger after the war than they were before once the inhibitions of the inquisition are removed. Maybe not to the extent of post-war Germany, but stronger, nevertheless.

Don

Were the noble officers heirs to titles, or were they spares? There are only so many nobles, they will eventually need to promote commoners to simply maintain numbers.
also wont the inquisition want to make examples of the soldier who ran, especially the officers.

Desnair seems to be a prime candidate for a home-grown revolution.

It looks as if two factors are keeping the lid on the pressure cooker at this time: severe oppression by the ruling class and the serfs' belief in the teachings of the church.
Seriously weaken one or both of these factors and the system might blow spectacularly.

A problem is that I don't imagine they have a lot of theoretical-philosophical background for alternative political systems in Desnair (or anywhere on Safehold really) since the Writ probably had the monopoly on that.

The Desnairians can't be expected to develop the Enlightenment, the Human Rights, Democracy or even Marxism overnight. So in my opinion a revolution in Desnair has the potential for maximum bloodshed resulting in minimal real political progress.

n7axw wrote:Given the unpleasant reality that they couldn't manufacture cannon for Jahras' ships that didn't blow up at inconvienent times, I think you guys are right.

The surprise has been Dohlar. I wouldn't be surprised to see them emerge stronger after the war than they were before once the inhibitions of the inquisition are removed. Maybe not to the extent of post-war Germany, but stronger, nevertheless.

Don

I see Dohlar following a similar path to Japan post WWII. For all the damage they may suffer, they have a progressive element (if it survives the war) that can drive development. The only likely rival is Siddarmark, and they'll be busy rebuilding. Desnair, on the other hand, could be a prime target for any Imperialist ambitions Dohlar may have.

jms

Hi MWadwell,

Not every family has 2 or 3 surviving sons, and with such intermarried noble clans I suspect some officers to have had multiple inheritances, so it won't be pretty regardless.

5000+ dead nobles has to take a bite out of any aristocracy, and given the age range, it's possible 2-3 generations in some cases have been wiped out in this one fell swoop, with ominous results for their clans.

If these were the most vigorous and mentally active of their aristocratic generation, that alone may condemn Desnar to decline, at least for the next generation or two.

I think RFC set this up for Desnar to be warning to Harchong, if Harchong is smart enough to see the writing on the wall.

L

MWadwell wrote:

lyonheart wrote:The effect of losing 5000+ aristocratic officers will be quite a shock to the nobility and the society in general, which may force some major changes, just as the various plagues NTM wars did to Europe, so RFC's actual results will be fascinating.

The shock may not be as bad as you think, for a number of reasons:
1) a majority of the "lost" nobles would have been captured - and so their loss is going to be offset by the fact that it is only a temporary loss.
2) The Army is typically a thing that the middle male child goes into (i.e. the eldest male inherits, the second eldest goes into the military, the third oldest joins the church, etc.....) - and so the lines of sucession would still be intact.

Hi SYED,

I have my doubts any commoners would be allowed to replace nobles in Desnar, given what the textev hints at.

The unsubtle abhorrence at anyone doing real work with their hands, or any trade in general demonstrates commoners are are so much lower in social status in Desnar that a revolution would be required for anything like what you suggest to happen, but there are no indicators of a society ripe for revolution.

Yet.

If Desnar continues to ignore the lessons of modern technology, its pathetic performance in this war may outshine that of the next.

L

SYED wrote:Were the noble officers heirs to titles, or were they spares? There are only so many nobles, they will eventually need to promote commoners to simply maintain numbers.
also wont the inquisition want to make examples of the soldier who ran, especially the officers.

Hi Bruno Behrends,

Interesting ideas, but I suspect one reason for feudalism being approved by the church and or the archangels before them is that they really didn't like democracy, because its too unstable, NTM with a tendency towards innovation.

Given the limited variety of political states on Safehold, earth's seminal political theories are from too diverse a background or context to be of much help to barely literate serfs, if they're your target rebellion group.

Unfortunately, the noble classes aren't that dumb (yet) and what could truly challenge the church's role in their lives?

Despite around half the country being in the 3 crop tropical zone, growing enough food for 148 million people may simply take too much time (how much smaller Dohlar does it is a mystery) for the serfs to wonder about much else.

The real slogan or motto of any revolution is 'why wait?', and we've yet to see anything that serious.

A famine, with the replacement set of nobles screwing up, ie making everything worse would be a good beginning.

L

Bruno Behrends wrote:Desnair seems to be a prime candidate for a home-grown revolution.

It looks as if two factors are keeping the lid on the pressure cooker at this time: severe oppression by the ruling class and the serfs' belief in the teachings of the church.
Seriously weaken one or both of these factors and the system might blow spectacularly.

A problem is that I don't imagine they have a lot of theoretical-philosophical background for alternative political systems in Desnair (or anywhere on Safehold really) since the Writ probably had the monopoly on that.

The Desnairians can't be expected to develop the Enlightenment, the Human Rights, Democracy or even Marxism overnight. So in my opinion a revolution in Desnair has the potential for maximum bloodshed resulting in minimal real political progress.

Hi JMSeeley,

Kudos for thinking Dohlar survives, since quite a few fans want it burned and blitzed, then plowed with salt etc.

OTOH, the progressive element may be too small for it to survive in 'old' Dohlar, and may need a new start, such as on Greentree island, where it would be a much larger fraction of the society.

Siddarmark may be rebuilding after the war, but I suspect they will have more will, more tools, more help and more capital for poor Dohlar to ever really have a chance to compete.

I doubt Dohlar is going to have any imperial ambitions towards Desnar, partly because it would be like the frog trying to swallow the horse (besides assuming no 'territorial surgery' on the frog first), but mainly since it would have to get past Silkiah (unless it takes the more expensive sea route) which will have treaties with the allies, NTM because its no longer demilitarized, will probably defend itself quite handily, quite aside what its allies might do.

L

jmseeley wrote:

n7axw wrote:Given the unpleasant reality that they couldn't manufacture cannon for Jahras' ships that didn't blow up at inconvienent times, I think you guys are right.

The surprise has been Dohlar. I wouldn't be surprised to see them emerge stronger after the war than they were before once the inhibitions of the inquisition are removed. Maybe not to the extent of post-war Germany, but stronger, nevertheless.

Don

I see Dohlar following a similar path to Japan post WWII. For all the damage they may suffer, they have a progressive element (if it survives the war) that can drive development. The only likely rival is Siddarmark, and they'll be busy rebuilding. Desnair, on the other hand, could be a prime target for any Imperialist ambitions Dohlar may have.

jms

Washington was almost made king of america after the revolution, so Thirsk or someone like him could become the new ruler.
So far more of the nobility will need to be called up, all the spares get called or service. That means far fewer at hom playing the games.