Spoiler Kaitswyrth "reinforcements"

PeterZ wrote:
(SNIP)

I suspect that by attacking in winter, Symkyn avoids the risk of having the locks blown. The canals are frozen solid and blowing the locks won't drain the canals as happened in the Guarnak.

(SNIP)

Does the entire canal freeze, or just the top foot or so?

MWadwell wrote:

PeterZ wrote:
(SNIP)

I suspect that by attacking in winter, Symkyn avoids the risk of having the locks blown. The canals are frozen solid and blowing the locks won't drain the canals as happened in the Guarnak.

(SNIP)

Does the entire canal freeze, or just the top foot or so?

Good question. Last Winter when Archbishop Zhasyn traveled along the frozen canals, they supported his group and their supplies. Not sure what the weight limit is. Even so if the heavy gear travels along the frozen roads in sleighs, the army would make better time than traveling over muddy roads.

We'll find out withine 1 year....I hope.

I remember Alaskan lakes in the early 60's supporting the weight of M47/M60 tanks. This was at 65 N or so, I figure the ice was at least 3 to 5 feet thick. So no, I wouldn't figure that the entire canal would freeze. I suppose I were motivated I could calculate the ground pressure of the tank, and deduce the thickness required. But since I am contemplating end Permian sedimentary chemistry at the moment I'll take a pass.

chickladoria wrote:I remember Alaskan lakes in the early 60's supporting the weight of M47/M60 tanks. This was at 65 N or so, I figure the ice was at least 3 to 5 feet thick. So no, I wouldn't figure that the entire canal would freeze. I suppose I were motivated I could calculate the ground pressure of the tank, and deduce the thickness required. But since I am contemplating end Permian sedimentary chemistry at the moment I'll take a pass.

Thinking about it, I can remember watching a couple of episodes of "Ice Road Truckers" (who carry heavy equipment to oil rigs/mines/etc located in the north of Canda and Alaska), and they travel over ice a few feet thick.

But! The rivers/lakes underneath them are still liquid. So I would think that for a majority of the canals, there is still some liquid water flowing.


In which case, blowing the locks would still cause problems for Symkyn....

Hi PeterZ,

I think we can agree Symkyn will take out Kaitswyrth rather quickly, but it gets more interesting after he's gone.

Wyrshym will take some more time to defeat if he's driven back to Five Forks.

While DE is in the South March Lands and EHM moving east into Cliff Peak, the IHA or the MHoGatA are over 2400 miles away near the south end of the Langhorne Canal in something around 40 camps.

Are these camps within 10 miles of the river or canal spread over perhaps 200 miles, or might they be doubled up (20-40 miles further into the farmland) to keep them more concentrated within 80-100 miles?

Will the Go4 keep the MHoGatA whole or organize it into 3-4 smaller armies, and possibly sub divide those into even smaller more flexible armies (ie corps etc)?

Will Clyntahn argue for just three armies of 500,000+ each, and Allayn and Rhobair for four of ~400,000?

Wyrshym's westernmost front is near 3500 miles away from where they are, or roughly 100 days march if the IHA ever got that far.

By canal and river, the route to Aivystyn, Kaitswyth's central theater of operations, is something around 4000 miles according to the MTaT online map, while simply marching across Jhurlahnk to the Charayn canal would be nearer 800 miles, or a fifth of the time or distance, so that army might simply march west as it has from Harchong, then take barges for the remaining ~600 miles to Aivystyn in ~3 5days for some 35-40 days total travel time if all goes well.

The southern army would proceed down the Sabana river before skirting the Bay of Bess for some 1600 miles to Dairnyth, while DE and EHM are roughly a thousand miles further at the moment, so that might also take 2-3 month's before we see any action there either.

So the central IHA army might be the first that needs to be dealt with, because even if BGV soon reached the vicinity of Five Forks in ~45 days (which I doubt) the northern army would still be on the Langhorne canal, and still some 600 miles apart.

If Earl High Mount were to send his scout snipers to bar traffic on the Fairmyn river at the southeastern oriented large half circle bight (approximately 200 miles long), it might take them 5-6 5days to get there, and while Kaitswyrth may no longer be a problem at that point, it would be just in time to block supplies to the central MHoGatA army (MHoGatAA) after it reached the Charayn, and turning it from a positive to a liability for the Go4.

While the cavalry might still forage for some of their fodder, finding 600-800 tons of food per day for 400 - 533,000 men might be a bit awkward, even if the remaining TL farmers have had a year to recover, which might encourage the Go4 and IHA to subdivide their forces into smaller armies.

Cliff Peak might assist Symkyn by attacking the sub armies south of the river from their rear flank, while Symkyn dealt with those north.

Did I mention it might have been enough time fore the river ironclads (Tellesbberg and Saygin plus the newer smaller ones) to make a quick appearance?

Imagine what happens when at least a couple of ironclads impervious to anything the IHA has, show up to savage a fleet of 700-800 barges probably stretched over 17-20 miles early in the morning, after increasing reports of cavalry scuffles that cut rations over the past few days as EHM and Symkyn get into position.

Going upstream at 8-10 mph while the Harchong are coming down at 3-4 mph, the ironclads might take less than ~100 minutes to pass through all the barges, pause to assess damage and ammunition expenditure (firing only half broadsides of 4 guns at these close ranges would be generally all that was needed to sink the barges with enough hits, [since the forward 3 guns were mainly firing grape or canister at the tow dragons] while the rear 4 broadside guns used grape and canister on those barges already hit and sinking) then returning back through mainly to prevent recovery of weapons and any food in shallow water before bringing up Col. Hobsyn's orphan regiment to assist that afternoon.

How many infantry will abandon their rifles to avoid drowning even when that close (10-20') to the shore?

At least 3 out of 4?

How much artillery could be unloaded before the barges were sunk?

While losses to the ironclads might be between 50 and 100,000 men, the equipment losses would be far greater proportionally and much more telling, and if it rained hard overnight through the next day , EHM and general Symkyn might feel the time was ripe to destroy the demoralized remnant left before they had a chance to recover and reorganize, at a time when most of their rifles didn't work.

After 2-3 or more of 5days on half rations or less, just promising to feed them might have some good results in terms of large numbers of surrendering POW's.

At this point, Symkyn heads north possibly sped by the ironclads or steam equipped barges (whose engines have finally arrived), to ostensibly cover BGV's flank but really he's to cut the Langhorne after the northern army is far too west to interfere, effectively starving the second IHA army by marching about 400 miles from the either the upper Daivyn (that might be navigable) or the Sair-Selyk Canal to near the northern end of the Langhorne or possibly going down the Ferrey river to Lake City; by the way, is that name a hint of its capabilities?

The Border states having surrendered all their rifles (204,000) to arm the IHA are helpless to prevent this, and since there's no 4th army in reserve to protect the canal, so if there are only 3 IHA armies, who gets blamed for this mistake in the Go4?

This leaves only the southern army remaining, which has probably reached Dairnyth, but because of the ICN's blockade, is then more reliant on Dohlar than the Temple Lands.

Its now around 4000 miles from Zion and the temple, EHM is probably screening the Snake mountains, while DE might be content (after taking the Salthar Canal among other things, but that's another thread ) to have them attempt to follow the same high road route that the AoS has already foraged and exhausted late last year, if the IHA were so foolish.

If you were the IHA commander ("Lord of earth, wind and sky" or perhaps " Lord of foot, horse and thunder"?) what would you do, if the source of your food, weapons, and ammunition etc suggested a different more conservative and self protective strategy than the Go4?

ASIDE: I'm surprised no one has started a thread to suggest fun poetic names of IHA armies, regiments, etc and more specialized units already.

For myself, I think the Dohlarans might get a pretty fair hearing.

Even given his choice of invasion routes, I doubt the IHA CO would consider going up the Fairmyn to Aivystyn etc, even if the scout snipers had been driven out (imagine having a whole regiment or more of scout snipers operating between the two lakes and the river, in an independent command that changes the course of the war) because they might have only appeared to have been driven out.

Penetrating the Snake Mountains only gets you into the center of Cliff Peak, which easily sets up another potential logistic disaster, so staying closer to Dohlar makes some sense until more reinforcements (OTOH, how will Duchairn pay for them?), but the Sairhalik switch Canal is only ~250 miles from Yairdyn, or 6-7 days marching that could cut you off again, while EHM then closes on Dairnyth and northern Dohlar, or possibly heads for the Sabana river, supplied by the ICN, thanks to controlling the Salthar Canal, which put the ICN in the Gulf of Dohlar to within 40-50 days supply of Tellesberg as opposed to ~100 days from Cherayth.

Given the southern army's out of position impotence trying to defend Dohlar at best, with Hsing-Wu's passage now clear in the early summer, BGV would probably embark at Spinefish bay (under Cayleb's probable command) along with more fresh trained troops from SC and Maikelberg etc to visit Zion in 2-3 5days, before any serious defense can be assembled.

Can you imagine the Go4 conference where such news is discussed, so Clyntahn is accused of secretly helping the heretics based on the obvious evidence (suffers major stroke etc), then arrested by major Phandys?

Can you spell Delicious?

How about scrumptious?

Sorry this got so long.

Best wishes always,

L

PeterZ wrote:

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Kaitswyrth certainly is toast!

snip

Think of the possibilities...

L

I believe you are savoring all those elegant ways to crush Kaitswyrth, when that force is punch drunk with a glass jaw waiting a simple right cross.

The real issue is whether Symkyn can get far enough north to help Green Valley secure Mahrtynberg and St. Vyrdyn before the MHoGatA arrive. My read is that Symkyn can make better time in Winter using those morgan adaptaions and ice lizards than in Spring. Odds are the locks at some point will be blown in the Spring. Also, the roads will be muddy and make for real slow going. If Symkyn wants to preserve the canals, he must go as far as possible before the Spring thaw.

So there are many possibilities that all begin with a quick knockout of Kaitswyrth.

Hi Chickladoria,

"Very interesting" - Laugh In

The ground pressure for most such period USA tanks is around 14+ pounds per square inch, just over a ton per square foot, so the strength of the ice 3-5' thick could be enough.

I imagine route reconnaissance across a wide river would have been a real bear.

L

chickladoria wrote:I remember Alaskan lakes in the early 60's supporting the weight of M47/M60 tanks. This was at 65 N or so, I figure the ice was at least 3 to 5 feet thick. So no, I wouldn't figure that the entire canal would freeze. I suppose I were motivated I could calculate the ground pressure of the tank, and deduce the thickness required. But since I am contemplating end Permian sedimentary chemistry at the moment I'll take a pass.

lyonheart wrote:Hi Chickladoria,

"Very interesting" - Laugh In

The ground pressure for most such period USA tanks is around 14+ pounds per square inch, just over a ton per square foot, so the strength of the ice 3-5' thick could be enough.

I imagine route reconnaissance across a wide river would have been a real bear.

chickladoria wrote:I remember Alaskan lakes in the early 60's supporting the weight of M47/M60 tanks. This was at 65 N or so, I figure the ice was at least 3 to 5 feet thick. So no, I wouldn't figure that the entire canal would freeze. I suppose I were motivated I could calculate the ground pressure of the tank, and deduce the thickness required. But since I am contemplating end Permian sedimentary chemistry at the moment I'll take a pass.

From the 2011 version of ATTP 3-90.4, Combined Arms Mobility Operations

Army Tactical____Required_______Distance Between
Vehicle Class__Ice Thickness___Vehicles in Feet (Meters)
(wheeled or____in Inches (CM)
tracked)
_____1____________4 (11)____________36 (11)
_____2____________6 (15)____________50 (15)
_____3____________7 (18)____________60 (18)
_____4____________8 (21)____________70 (21)
_____5____________9 (23)____________75 (23)
____10___________13 (33)___________110 (33)
____15___________16 (40)___________130 (40)
____20___________19 (48)___________150 (46)
____25___________20 (51)___________170 (51)
____30___________23 (58)___________180 (55)
____35___________24 (61)___________200 (61)
____40___________26 (65)___________215 (65)
____50___________28 (72)___________235 (72)
____60___________31 (79)___________260 (79)
____70___________33 (85)___________280 (85)
____80___________36 (91)___________300 (91)

Sorry about this poor excuse for a table but I don't know how to copy the table out of a pdf document and paste it here.

Well, lyonheart, I just wanted to correct a mistaken assumption you make here.

The GHoGatA have 1,100,000 soldiers. Of those soldiers 550,000 are armed with muzzle loading flintlocks, 90,000 are armed with St. Kylmahn breech loaders and 460,000 have no firearms at all. The allies have 300,000 mahndrayns, 80,000++ flintlocks and will have ~150,000 M96s by summer in Siddermark/Dohlar.

Except for the 90,000 St. Kylmahns, most of these rifles can only be effective against the ICA if deployed behind fixed defenses. That doesn't argue well for the GHoGatA projecting force anywhere.

Referrence YoG 897 February Chapter I, the last 2-3 pages of the chapter.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

I think we can agree Symkyn will take out Kaitswyrth rather quickly, but it gets more interesting after he's gone.

snip

Will the Go4 keep the MHoGatA whole or organize it into 3-4 smaller armies, and possibly sub divide those into even smaller more flexible armies?

Will Clyntahn argue for just three armies of 500,000+ each, and Allayn and Rhobair for four of ~400,000?

Hello PeterZ,

Actually the GHoGatA also has 60,000 infantry with nothing but slings, for 1.16 million infantry.

Plus, while I assume they left 40% of the regular cavalry home they did bring 60% or 195,000; NTM about the same number (or maybe 200K) of the feudal cavalry regiments (I expect some Harchong lords would have insisted on coming, and others wouldn't want the new regular army to get all the glory etc) for something around 1,555,000 men, which is near Duchairn's estimate of something close to two million, based on the rations they're devouring; which given how well Harchong serfs ate before being drafted could explain how three are eating nearly four rations.

Due to their required exposure to operate and relative short range, the pole slinger's are dangerously at risk of course, because while some might think they could possibly extend the range of hand grenades, the ICA hand grenade is more like German 'potato masher' with a long handle for better leverage throwing; there is no textev as yet for any modifications to permit grenades to be used by the slingers.

Again the almost 300,000 ICA combat troops (not counting Hanth and other marine units) means nearly 225,000 have rifles according to the TO&E, those muzzle loaders being exchanged for Mahndrayns at SC, for a total of ~450,000 before adding captured rifles and SR production.

Thanks to the latter two sources the RSA may have ~300,000 rifles of all makes, and the allied total might approach 550,000 including the various marines.

L

PeterZ wrote:Well, lyonheart, I just wanted to correct a mistaken assumption you make here.

The GHoGatA have 1,100,000 soldiers. Of those soldiers 550,000 are armed with muzzle loading flintlocks, 90,000 are armed with St. Kylmahn breech loaders and 460,000 have no firearms at all. The allies have 300,000 mahndrayns, 80,000++ flintlocks and will have ~150,000 M96s by summer in Siddermark/Dohlar.

Except for the 90,000 St. Kylmahns, most of these rifles can only be effective against the ICA if deployed behind fixed defenses. That doesn't argue well for the GHoGatA projecting force anywhere.

Referrence YoG 897 February Chapter I, the last 2-3 pages of the chapter.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

I think we can agree Symkyn will take out Kaitswyrth rather quickly, but it gets more interesting after he's gone.

snip

Will the Go4 keep the MHoGatA whole or organize it into 3-4 smaller armies, and possibly sub divide those into even smaller more flexible armies?

Will Clyntahn argue for just three armies of 500,000+ each, and Allayn and Rhobair for four of ~400,000?

I think you might want to reread February 897 chapter 1, Lyonheart. The IHA started with 471,000soldiers, horse and foot, before the schism and expanded to over 1,300,000 in 4 months time. That's the total IHA. Later in the chapter we discover the GHoGatA is sending the numbers I cited. 550,000 muzzle loaders, 90,000 St. Kylmahns and 460,000 assorted arbalests and bows. That 1.1 million is the GHoGatA being sent to Siddermark.

I am not sure where the 1.5 million number came from.

lyonheart wrote:Hello PeterZ,

Actually the GHoGatA also has 60,000 infantry with nothing but slings, for 1.16 million infantry.

Plus, while I assume they left 40% of the regular cavalry home they did bring 60% or 195,000; NTM about the same number (or maybe 200K) of the feudal cavalry regiments (I expect some Harchong lords would have insisted on coming, and others wouldn't want the new regular army to get all the glory etc) for something around 1,555,000 men, which is near Duchairn's estimate of something close to two million, based on the rations they're devouring; which given how well Harchong serfs ate before being drafted could explain how three are eating nearly four rations.

Due to their required exposure to operate and relative short range, the pole slinger's are dangerously at risk of course, because while some might think they could possibly extend the range of hand grenades, the ICA hand grenade is more like German 'potato masher' with a long handle for better leverage throwing; there is no textev as yet for any modifications to permit grenades to be used by the slingers.

Again the almost 300,000 ICA combat troops (not counting Hanth and other marine units) means nearly 225,000 have rifles according to the TO&E, those muzzle loaders being exchanged for Mahndrayns at SC, for a total of ~450,000 before adding captured rifles and SR production.

Thanks to the latter two sources the RSA may have ~300,000 rifles of all makes, and the allied total might approach 550,000 including the various marines.

L

PeterZ wrote:Well, lyonheart, I just wanted to correct a mistaken assumption you make here.

The GHoGatA have 1,100,000 soldiers. Of those soldiers 550,000 are armed with muzzle loading flintlocks, 90,000 are armed with St. Kylmahn breech loaders and 460,000 have no firearms at all. The allies have 300,000 mahndrayns, 80,000++ flintlocks and will have ~150,000 M96s by summer in Siddermark/Dohlar.

Except for the 90,000 St. Kylmahns, most of these rifles can only be effective against the ICA if deployed behind fixed defenses. That doesn't argue well for the GHoGatA projecting force anywhere.

Referrence YoG 897 February Chapter I, the last 2-3 pages of the chapter.