Hi PeterZ,
Kaitswyrth certainly is toast!
But we have no textev for the Morgans being sent anywhere but to BGV, and its March already, and Symkyn is around 900 miles south of BGV, so I don't think he needs that much winter equipment any more.
It may have taken 40-50 days to get there from SC, so the late October reinforcements may have spent perhaps just 3-4 five-days in winter quarters in the Aivystyn forest (built by Hobsyn's command), so they are probably eager to do something a bit more energetic.
Indeed given the better weather and the smaller campaign distances involved, Symkyn might beat BGV in destroying a AoG army.
Among Symkyn's advantages are the fact that Kaitswyrth lost at least 61% of his rifles (almost 19,000), and we have no textev that they were replaced, especially given the higher priority of arming the IHA.
If K's AoG had had the 40 infantry divisions I assumed, his rifle total would have been 30,720; he might have around 12,000 at most left, which explains why he didn't try to press Hobsyn, even if he'd known exactly when DE left, since the rifle ratio is almost the same as when it was against DE's whole reinforced 1st brigade (~3.08 to 3.4) without the mortar and artillery advantages, before considering the huge morale changes.
If Kaitswyrth had only 36 infantry divisions, he might have only ~9,000 rifles left, meaning among other things Hobsyn might have had an even better rifle ratio than DE had.
Kaitswyrth may have had anywhere from 54 to 80 cavalry regiments, and possibly have lost up to 30% of that as well from the 5,000+ cavalry saddles the AoG no longer needed.
While the local TL's suffered losses, the AoG probably suffered a higher loss rate than its 2-1 ratio, perhaps up to 24-25,000 of the 29,000 casualties cited including artillery, so Symkyn might actually outnumber the AoG!
Which is certainly a first in this war.
NTM Symkyn probably has over 55,000 riflemen, so he has anywhere from a 4 to a 6-1 ratio or even better rifle odds, over 80% being Mahndrayns.
What would Kaitswyrth do if he found all this to be true?
What would his army do?
While the reports to Zion claimed Kaitswyrth had made a stand just outside the forest, having your HQ at least 250 miles further back in Aivystyn strongly argues against that, so were they exaggerated?
If the false reports were approved by K's intendant, Clyntahn will not be pleased when he found out.
Since that wasn't recorded in LaMA, perhaps the Go4 let it slide, arguing executing the army's intendant might be bad for morale, especially if he's the main force holding things together if Kaitswyrth has collapsed.
But Clyntahn might still make an example of Hennet, since the CoGA (NTM the Go4) can't be held responsible for the loss of the AoS, regardless of the political repercussions in the Desnarian empire.
Besides the various arguments made above for why the Desnari cavalry are more of a liability than an advantage for the AoG, the extra 8,000 horses are consuming another 120 tons of fodder every day besides the 12 tons of food for the men, which might make the ranks more hostile if food is running short at the end of winter and the Charayn canal is still frozen.
Any fortified line so far forward could have been cut off from supplies by the scout snipers back in August, since we had no news of a AoG pullback, I believe the AoG was far enough away from the forest that Hobsyn's initial conservative patrols didn't find any AoG forces within 40-100 miles of the forest.
There are apparently 3 sets of locks somewhere between Aivystyn and the forest, I suspect Kaitswyrth fortifying the first nearest the forest to prevent the ironclads from advancing further up the river.
But Symkyn with 2 mounted brigades could easily flank any AoG position fixed on the river, NTM trap any such forces, possibly before they knew he had mounted brigades.
I've wondered about the scout snipers sneaking up to Aivystyn and blockading it by preventing any barges reaching it, ah the possibilities.
Think of the possibilities...
L
PeterZ wrote:I suspect that once Symkyn has been reinforced with mounted brigades on their heavy coated Morgans and their ice lizards to haul supplies, Kaitswyrth is toast. That's 75,000 troops armed with breechloading rifles, rifled artillery, mortars and effective winter gear and logistics. I don't see Kaitswyrth surviving the first assault, let alone any sort of retreat.
I suspect that by attacking in winter, Symkyn avoids the risk of having the locks blown. The canals are frozen solid and blowing the locks won't drain the canals as happened in the Guarnak.
Yeah, those "reinforcements" will surely drive morale even lower yet. I doubt it would have mattered much with or without the Desnarii.
Let word of mouth spread it from there. It would drive Clyntahn and Rayno crazy trying to figure out who had leaked the information.
and, Mangy Fur the Smart Alick Spacecat.